The Case for Keeping Millsap (With a Sample Mock Offseason)

[TheFuzz]

I'm sure this'll be divisive, but here it goes... I'm fine letting Millsap walk, but I'm also fine keeping him (if it's not straight up max dollars)!

Millsap has been our best player since he joined: he plays hard every game, battles for boards and plays great defense. He's versatile offensively and is a solid #2 or #3 guy. I think his game will age well, and I believe he'll actually be worth his contract IF it's in the $25-30M/yr range and not more. That's similar money to Joe Johnson, but in the new cap, and Millsap is a more valuable player than Joe! He's not Duncan, of course, but he's Duncan-lite. He just needs some more talent around him. Plus, we are not exactly as asset starved as we make ourselves out to be. Don't believe me? Here's what we got if we don't use cap space...

- All our picks

- Extra firsts from Minnesota and Cleveland that we WILL get, Minnesota is not far off (seriously).

- Dunleavy's non-guaranteed contract. Teams are looking to dump cap this summer.

- Schröder, Hardaway and Prince are good young players with room to improve.

- The full MLE

- Bird rights on Ersan

- Possible Howard/Bazemore trades (yes, I believe we could fetch back assets for them, however minor).

So, we have options even above the cap! I think this is a fairly reasonable offseason for this summer...

1) Draft Jonah Bolden at #19 (look him up!)

2) Trade Dunleavy for Joseph from Toronto

2) Resign Millsap to a deal starting at $27M, Ilyasova to a $10M/yr deal and Hardaway to a $13M/yr deal.

3) Sign Ingles to the MLE

4) Bank on improvement from our youngsters. Get ready to pounce on a deal for Paul George, Butler and/or (on the lower end) Marc Gasol.

Dennis/Joseph

Ingles/Hardaway

Prince/Bazemore

Millsap/Ilyasova/Bolden

Howard/Millsap

 

Does not look unreasonable! We'd be a good deal better fighting for #2 in the East with our shooting and depth issues addressed, and we'd still have room to improve to get to the title level! I don't know, seems fine to me, and gives Millsap the chance to become a Hawks legend.

 

[JTB]

Good post and I agree. Forgot we had ersans bird rights meaning we can offer him more than any other team, I wonder if Schlenk is interested in keeping illayasova around for some years.

[AtlHomer]

13 hours ago, JTB said:

Good post and I agree. Forgot we had ersans bird rights meaning we can offer him more than any other team, I wonder if Schlenk is interested in keeping illayasova around for some years.

I think he is a good swing man for the 4 and 5 spots.  He is also a good spot starter, if needed.  I hope we can find a way to keep him.

[Guest]

I also love Ersan's charge taking abilities..#1 in the league I think of most offensive fouls drawn.

[capstone21]

I do want to get Ersan back.  Was really happy with his contributions.

i think Joseph would be an excellent backup here but Dunlevey will not get it done.  He is worth a lot more then that.  Also, with the uncertainty facing Lowry they will be in def need of a pg.

[hazer]

Re-sign Ilyasovavichkov and draft Bolden at 31st, but not 19th...

[TheFuzz]

1 hour ago, capstone21 said:

I do want to get Ersan back.  Was really happy with his contributions.

i think Joseph would be an excellent backup here but Dunlevey will not get it done.  He is worth a lot more then that.  Also, with the uncertainty facing Lowry they will be in def need of a pg.

Could be, but if they resign Lowry, Tucker and Ibaka they'll need to cut some costs, especially if they resign Patterson too. We could throw in a couple of 2nds possibly.

[thecampster]

On 6/3/2017 at 5:17 PM, TheFuzz said:

I'm sure this'll be divisive, but here it goes... I'm fine letting Millsap walk, but I'm also fine keeping him (if it's not straight up max dollars)!

Millsap has been our best player since he joined: he plays hard every game, battles for boards and plays great defense. He's versatile offensively and is a solid #2 or #3 guy. I think his game will age well, and I believe he'll actually be worth his contract IF it's in the $25-30M/yr range and not more. That's similar money to Joe Johnson, but in the new cap, and Millsap is a more valuable player than Joe! He's not Duncan, of course, but he's Duncan-lite. He just needs some more talent around him. Plus, we are not exactly as asset starved as we make ourselves out to be. Don't believe me? Here's what we got if we don't use cap space...

- All our picks

- Extra firsts from Minnesota and Cleveland that we WILL get, Minnesota is not far off (seriously).

- Dunleavy's non-guaranteed contract. Teams are looking to dump cap this summer.

- Schröder, Hardaway and Prince are good young players with room to improve.

- The full MLE

- Bird rights on Ersan

- Possible Howard/Bazemore trades (yes, I believe we could fetch back assets for them, however minor).

So, we have options even above the cap! I think this is a fairly reasonable offseason for this summer...

1) Draft Jonah Bolden at #19 (look him up!)

2) Trade Dunleavy for Joseph from Toronto

2) Resign Millsap to a deal starting at $27M, Ilyasova to a $10M/yr deal and Hardaway to a $13M/yr deal.

3) Sign Ingles to the MLE

4) Bank on improvement from our youngsters. Get ready to pounce on a deal for Paul George, Butler and/or (on the lower end) Marc Gasol.

Dennis/Joseph

Ingles/Hardaway

Prince/Bazemore

Millsap/Ilyasova/Bolden

Howard/Millsap

 

Does not look unreasonable! We'd be a good deal better fighting for #2 in the East with our shooting and depth issues addressed, and we'd still have room to improve to get to the title level! I don't know, seems fine to me, and gives Millsap the chance to become a Hawks legend.

 

Using your math/ideas.

Dennis - 15.5 million

Joseph - 7.6 million

Ingles - 8 million, Hardaway - 13 million

Prince 2.4 million

Bazemore - 16.9 million

Millsap - $25 million

Ilyasova - $10 million

Bolden - $2 million

Howard - $23.5 million

Total 132.9 million - only 22.9 million over the cap and well into the LT.  You forget about the contracts of Delaney and Bembry for another 4 million and the 13th roster slot.  So take these numbers, rethink what you are saying and try again.  Only 28 million over the cap on your first NBA2k17 GM'ing though...good first start. In order to make this work, you need to trade away Baze and Howard bringing back only 12 million in salary.  

 

[macdaddy]

Joe Ingles?   I'd like to have him but he's not a SG is he?  or really a starter.

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

Joe Ingles?   I'd like to have him but he's not a SG is he?  or really a starter.

Not really but I think he can play the1,2,3 positions off the bench. Slow and methodical like Saric. He looks pretty successful out there every time I see him play for the Jazz. 

[macdaddy]

2 hours ago, Spud2Nique said:

Not really but I think he can play the1,2,3 positions off the bench. Slow and methodical like Saric. He looks pretty successful out there every time I see him play for the Jazz. 

He can hit the 3 so i'm good with it.   We better not make a move for anyone this summer who can't shoot 3s.   

[TheFuzz]

14 hours ago, thecampster said:

Using your math/ideas.

Dennis - 15.5 million

Joseph - 7.6 million

Ingles - 8 million, Hardaway - 13 million

Prince 2.4 million

Bazemore - 16.9 million

Millsap - $25 million

Ilyasova - $10 million

Bolden - $2 million

Howard - $23.5 million

Total 132.9 million - only 22.9 million over the cap and well into the LT.  You forget about the contracts of Delaney and Bembry for another 4 million and the 13th roster slot.  So take these numbers, rethink what you are saying and try again.  Only 28 million over the cap on your first NBA2k17 GM'ing though...good first start. In order to make this work, you need to trade away Baze and Howard bringing back only 12 million in salary.  

 

I forgot about Bazemore when I did the math, which is a pretty bad one to forget I'll admit.

[AHF]

40 minutes ago, TheFuzz said:

I forgot about Bazemore when I did the math, which is a pretty bad one to forget I'll admit.

We'd all like to forget about Bazemore.  I don't blame you.

[BigDog90]

On 6/3/2017 at 5:17 PM, TheFuzz said:

I'm sure this'll be divisive, but here it goes... I'm fine letting Millsap walk, but I'm also fine keeping him (if it's not straight up max dollars)!

Millsap has been our best player since he joined: he plays hard every game, battles for boards and plays great defense. He's versatile offensively and is a solid #2 or #3 guy. I think his game will age well, and I believe he'll actually be worth his contract IF it's in the $25-30M/yr range and not more. That's similar money to Joe Johnson, but in the new cap, and Millsap is a more valuable player than Joe! He's not Duncan, of course, but he's Duncan-lite. He just needs some more talent around him. Plus, we are not exactly as asset starved as we make ourselves out to be. Don't believe me? Here's what we got if we don't use cap space...

- All our picks

- Extra firsts from Minnesota and Cleveland that we WILL get, Minnesota is not far off (seriously).

- Dunleavy's non-guaranteed contract. Teams are looking to dump cap this summer.

- Schröder, Hardaway and Prince are good young players with room to improve.

- The full MLE

- Bird rights on Ersan

- Possible Howard/Bazemore trades (yes, I believe we could fetch back assets for them, however minor).

So, we have options even above the cap! I think this is a fairly reasonable offseason for this summer...

1) Draft Jonah Bolden at #19 (look him up!)

2) Trade Dunleavy for Joseph from Toronto

2) Resign Millsap to a deal starting at $27M, Ilyasova to a $10M/yr deal and Hardaway to a $13M/yr deal.

3) Sign Ingles to the MLE

4) Bank on improvement from our youngsters. Get ready to pounce on a deal for Paul George, Butler and/or (on the lower end) Marc Gasol.

Dennis/Joseph

Ingles/Hardaway

Prince/Bazemore

Millsap/Ilyasova/Bolden

Howard/Millsap

 

Does not look unreasonable! We'd be a good deal better fighting for #2 in the East with our shooting and depth issues addressed, and we'd still have room to improve to get to the title level! I don't know, seems fine to me, and gives Millsap the chance to become a Hawks legend.

 

Ingles and Hardaway are going to get more than that. I think TOR values Joseph more than that. If anything they'd want to dump Carroll/Jonas.

[Thomas]

Wonder about how much of Ingle's development depended/depends on Quin  being involved before and possibly after this offseason. Example being Waiters coached by Spoeltra worked but who would have expected that kind of success elsewhere as actually being part of a team concept. Quin really seems to understand the chemistry part of a roster. Will be interesting to see how Ingles does next season, certainly has good height for the swing.

[Gray Mule]

Someone please explain things for this old man:

We run the math on payroll and we come up over the limit.  Other teams

can pay our players, at least in theory, more than we do, yet they can stay

under this limit.

Something just doesn't add up.  Do we have players who are already eating up

our payroll?  Blazeless comes to mind.  He's very good and he has a very high

payroll, doesn't he.

How do we get in this mess?  Can our new GM fix this?

What ever we do, please, please make sure any new Hawk we sign on can hit

his free throws and score from the three.  Gotta have both now days!

[AHF]

Our big payroll hits are Dennis, Baze, Dwight and Millsap's cap hold.

[thecampster]

13 hours ago, Gray Mule said:

Someone please explain things for this old man:

We run the math on payroll and we come up over the limit.  Other teams

can pay our players, at least in theory, more than we do, yet they can stay

under this limit.

Something just doesn't add up.  Do we have players who are already eating up

our payroll?  Blazeless comes to mind.  He's very good and he has a very high

payroll, doesn't he.

How do we get in this mess?  Can our new GM fix this?

What ever we do, please, please make sure any new Hawk we sign on can hit

his free throws and score from the three.  Gotta have both now days!

A simple explanation because we all love the ole mule.

Salary Cap - This is the theoretical limit where a team dealing with other team's free agents must now deal with a set of restrictive rules. Trades can still happen, signings can still happen but with restrictions. You total team salary can increase but with preset limits based on the size/scope of the deal.

Exceptions - Player friendly rules which allow older established players to be bought with moderate limits while ignoring the present state of the cap.

Luxury Tax - This is a hard limit set at 120% of the salary cap where teams are penalized for spending too much money. The penalties increase based on how much over the LT you go and for violations in consecutive years.

Minimum Salaries - The NBA establishing a bare minimum that players must be signed for based on years of service and their signings can violate the rules of the Salary Cap.

Maximum Salaries - After the initial 4 year rookie term is over (for 1st round picks) or initial contracts end (2nd round picks and rookie FA), Maximum Salaries dictate what the maximum salary a player can receive based on years of service. This is a mechanism designed to protect smaller markets from teams like Boston, Chicago, New York and LA who used to just sign the best players for more than smaller markets.

 

So how do other teams do it. By acquiring talent either through the draft or trade that is still in its rookie contract, teams maintain a low base salary structure and fill in the gaps via free agents (see Philly now). Then those team sign new players before their rookie contracts expire up to the cap (see Golden State last year). The salary cap rules for signing players do not apply if you sign your own free agents. So teams like Boston this year, Golden State and Philly create a roster with young talent and then max it to the cap with solid veterans. The following year (see Boston 2018), the team violates the cap by resigning their own talent above that cap.  

The trick here for large markets Mule is to acquire the players via trade while their contracts are low and gain their rights, then extend them when the contracts are up for much larger salary. This is something Cleveland did just a few years ago. Although Cleveland this year is $13 million over the LT, they had a total team salary of only $49 million in 2013. They traded for players due for big paydays like Kevin Love, signed Lebron at less than market and stayed just above the cap after signing free agents to fill the roster. Then their players got their payday after their contracts ended and Cleveland owned their rights. Then by taking advantage of NBA trade rules that allow you take in a % more salary than you send out, Cleveland continued to moderately increase their total team salary.

Positioning yourself is tricky because you must time the contracts of outgoing players to coincide 1-2 years before your Dennis/Prince like rookies are due their paydays and you must also gamble that if you don't extend your rookies (like we did with Dennis) before their contract is up, they won't sign elsewhere (how we had to match Josh Smith back in the day). 

Our problem is and always has been that fractured Atlanta management could never commit to a plan. The team has not always been profitable enough to allow for lean years. So to remain competitive enough to sell tickets, the team has cobbled together a range of rented vets to string the team along....Joe Johnson, Mike Bibby, Mutombo, Steve Smith, Shareef....etc.  We even tried Rasheed out for 1 game.  Some of these players (Bazemore, Johnson, etc) have come with contracts that have hamstrung creativity going into our rookie's contracts.  The reality is, you don't give out Bazemore type contracts until your team is built to win it all and you are retaining the last pieces.  Bazemore's contract (and Millsap's if they resign him for north of $25 million) will steal the position needed to attract those players 2 years before their big contract.  Lets hope the new GM has foresight and the space to lose revenue now to build the right team later.

[thecampster]

Okay, so you asked how do we get out of the mess. Job one is to not violate the cap this year just for wins. That means not resiging Millsap and consigning yourself to suck more. It means letting quality rookies and young talent play/develop. It means trading aging assets like Howard, Baze, Dunleavy, Thabo (back when we could have), Korver (like we did) to acquire young developing talent and draft picks. Then you don't necessarily tank but you position yourself in the draft to pick the closest to "can't miss talent". This isn't always going to be your allstar, but it is a player that will play not matter what. Prince was one of those guys last year. Never gonna be Jordan, but no shot of never playing either. You build a core team via the draft and trading for a youth movement (see Philly/New Orleans right now). Then through a series of trades and or signing, bring in 2 star quality vets to fill the salary cap space you've created by going young (younger players have lower salaries). Nearly finally, once uber competitive, tweak the roster by trading some of your youth for the right veteran fit and then finally, be prepared to exceed the luxury tax when that youth is due for their big payday (see New Orleans in 3 years).