Vegas over/under = Hawks 2nd worst.

[Thomas]

Will come down to whether we can shoot from the perimeter and improve that PnR as to getting close to a decent number of wins. Have some decent defensive players in the starting five is nice and all but shooting for us from range has been either short lived or nonexistent when it counts for a couple of years now and this year that problem will be focused on by everyone, opponents and media included. Have added some bench guys that can help with that so will be interesting to see our percentages by the end of the season.

[DS5]

4 hours ago, NBASupes said:

Man, I don't know what you guys are seeing. The data says otherwise. The stats says otherwise. The tape says otherwise. The only thing that you guys are holding close to is faith in Bud. 

As I told @AHF , I haven't seen any data, stat or tape that shows me this team can win more than 20 games. Nothing. That said, I hold the same reservation for the Bulls as well. I personally think Vegas overrated but the Bulls and the Hawks. 

Maybe we're putting too much faith in Bud, but if we're talking about data and stats, I think Bud has proven to be an above average coach. Plus, it's not like we have a bunch of players that haven't played in the NBA. Even our bench has players that have started for other NBA teams. I wouldn't mind getting a top 3 pick...I just don't see how we could be worse than 28 teams in the NBA.

[NBASupes]

2 hours ago, DS5 said:

Maybe we're putting too much faith in Bud, but if we're talking about data and stats, I think Bud has proven to be an above average coach. Plus, it's not like we have a bunch of players that haven't played in the NBA. Even our bench has players that have started for other NBA teams. I wouldn't mind getting a top 3 pick...I just don't see how we could be worse than 28 teams in the NBA.

All of our vets were rotation players at best. We don't have one player who played at a top 25-35 level on this squad. 

Dennis has played like a bottom tier starting PG. That's not to say he can't improve to a mid range PG but it's not gonna be easy considering his responsibility is as high as his Germany role but the competition is 10 times harder. 

Belli, Dedmon, Plumlee, Ersan have all been starters at a point in their careers but as recent as we have seen they have been poor starters and average backups at their position. All of them were outproduced in that role, in fact as backups they were as well. 

Bembry, Carroll, and Delaney have all shown serious flaws in their game at to expect they will play at an average starter level would be something that would be extremely hard considering their responsibility would be higher this year than in their SL squad or in Malcolm's case, since he was in Europe. 

 

 

[AUhawksfan]

On 8/31/2017 at 9:59 AM, NBASupes said:

Bud can do a great coaching job and we could still only win 15 games. The NBA is much harder than you think. We had very vet like squads in the past 8 years. We haven't had a squad this young in along time. 

So I assume you're a former NBA player?  Since I don't seem to know how hard the NBA is.

[NBASupes]

4 hours ago, Thomas said:

Will come down to whether we can shoot from the perimeter and improve that PnR as to getting close to a decent number of wins. Have some decent defensive players in the starting five is nice and all but shooting for us from range has been either short lived or nonexistent when it counts for a couple of years now and this year that problem will be focused on by everyone, opponents and media included. Have added some bench guys that can help with that so will be interesting to see our percentages by the end of the season.

Every team runs the PnR. You can have PnR bigs like Plumlee but those players are too limited. As a PnR big, you must have great BBIQ, range of motion, be a great screen setter, have great physical tools and be versatile to keep the defense on its toes. Atlanta doesn't have that. Sap could do it in spurts and of course, that was Horford specialty. 

What good is having a solid core of defensive players if our starters can't score at all efficiently and they can't shoot? This team lacks far too much talent to win games in this league. The NBA is hard. I been watching every team for the last three years. Winning is harder than you think in this league. We had some really good players in previous years. Clearly not superstars but we had guys who are legit All Stars who can carry our other guys. We do not have anything close to this anymore. Offensively, we were terrible last year, that squad was superior offensively to this squad. This might be one of the worst offensive squads since 15'16 Sixers. 

[Lurker]

There's a number of reasons why I don't 100% buy metrics/sabermetrics, and I'm not really going to get into why but you can't just use them, you have to consider other factors.

And it's not that I think this team will be good either.

[NBASupes]

10 minutes ago, AUhawksfan said:

So I assume you're a former NBA player?  Since I don't seem to know how hard the NBA is.

No, that being said, winning games in the NBA is very hard. 

[NBASupes]

7 minutes ago, Lurker said:

There's a number of reasons why I don't 100% buy metrics/sabermetrics, and I'm not really going to get into why but you can't just use them, you have to consider other factors.

And it's not that I think this team will be good either.

How is this team going to be even below average? We have NOTHING that says otherwise. AHF gave the best explanation I've heard yet and even that is flawed from the standpoint that he thinks a lot of people will outperform with A LOT more responsibility and we just haven't seen that as true yet. 

 

He's using the metrics of, Hawks University but I used metrics and Hawks University is a FLAWED metric. Hawks University left with Al Horford. No one has really improved like that outside of Hardaway Jr who simply was put in the optimum role as a 6th man while giving a coaching staff and the tools to develop. The only player I see overachieving this season is Belli as a backup SG. 

 

Dennis has too much of a load without the talent surrounding him. 

Bembry and Prince simply aren't ready to be starters. Especially Bembry. 

Bazemore is Josh Smith like. When responsibility goes up, their stupidity level goes up a notch. I can see him getting stretched in 2018 offseason. 

We don't have a single starting big on this roster. While Collins needs time, he is clearly the best for the position as for fit, talent, and ability. 

Our PG depth is horrendous. 

Maybe we are overrating Hawks University. We haven't drafted well enough to truly develop these guys. 

[Lurker]

I can't fully buy metrics when you have a guy like Jim Johnson (this is baseball, but still) that has a very solid FIP but is getting his tits ripped.

[NBASupes]

7 minutes ago, Lurker said:

I can't fully buy metrics when you have a guy like Jim Johnson (this is baseball, but still) that has a very solid FIP but is getting his tits ripped.

Fully buying in is completely different than using it as a part of an evaluation. 

[noble]

8 hours ago, NBASupes said:

Man, I don't know what you guys are seeing. The data says otherwise. The stats says otherwise. The tape says otherwise. The only thing that you guys are holding close to is faith in Bud. 

As I told @AHF , I haven't seen any data, stat or tape that shows me this team can win more than 20 games. Nothing. That said, I hold the same reservation for the Bulls as well. I personally think Vegas overrated but the Bulls and the Hawks. 

Yeah, it boggles that statistically, data, tape, etc shows less than what others are saying. I agree, I think if we hit 20 wins that will be a good season with this roster as it currently is. I like Bud and all (yeah maybe a little over rated but still), but I don't see how this roster can roll into a 25+ win season even with Bud.

[AHF]

1 hour ago, NBASupes said:

How is this team going to be even below average? We have NOTHING that says otherwise. AHF gave the best explanation I've heard yet and even that is flawed from the standpoint that he thinks a lot of people will outperform with A LOT more responsibility and we just haven't seen that as true yet. 

I'm pretty sure that I said a number of our guys have the potential to outdo their current level of projections.  Doesn't mean they will.  I think some will pop and step up and others won't but predicting which specific person will do what is beyond my abilities.  I'll just be rooting for all of them while recognizing that everyone stepping up is unlikely.

[benhillboy]

2 hours ago, NBASupes said:

Bazemore is Josh Smith like. When responsibility goes up, their stupidity level goes up a notch. I can see him getting stretched in 2018 offseason.

Haha, I can only dream.

If the team is as bad as you and Vegas says I have confidence Schlank will make the most of the lotto pick (Vegas also had us winning the Finals in late January '15.) 

I think career best seasons from Dedmon, Plumlee, Babbitt, and Dennis will intersect along with some bright spots from Bembry, Collins, and Cook and we can surprise some people and make a little noise late like the Heat this past season (notably in games Dragic and Whiteside missed). Over 82 games I just think Bud's main ideals of getting back in transition, getting steals, and moving the ball will pay dividends.  I'm sure I'm a Bud overrater, shoot at me.

Edited September 1, 2017 by benhillboy

[bleachkit]

The only thing I am excited to see is John Collins. I think Prince and Dennis are really going to struggle with the  scoring load placed on them. Without Milsap we will be rudderless ship out there, lots of turnovers, Bud desperately calling time outs to try to stop the bleeding. It's going to be ugly.