Development of the Players on the Current Roster

[AHF]

Couple of comments to kick this thread off:

Dennis - Very up and down year for him.  Started really strong shooting the ball well and showing new levels of ball control.  The last few months he has been ice cold - especially from 3.  His A/TO ratio has sustained a solid bump (up from 1.9 the last two season to 2.3 season to date this year).  Some people have commented on him playing up to better opponents and down to worse ones but I don't have the energy to see if that actually correlates (clearly anecdotes to support it).  Overall this has been a bit of a treading water year for him.  He needs to sustain the reduced TOs (or better yet continue to improve there) but the key areas are his shooting and defense.  29% is way worse than anything he has done since his rookie year and makes him a liability long-term.  The defense has got to improve and seems to be primarily a matter of focus off the ball.

Prince - Interesting case here.  His minutes and numbers are all up.  Shooting %s are significantly up (.532 TS%).  He seems to have been less active this year on D with his per minute rebounding flat YOY but his blocks and steals both way down.  Hoping he has turned the corner here with his recent play but he went through a long stretch in the middle of the season where it looked like he may have taken a step back this year.  Said on another thread that I bookend his potential between "useful rotation player" on the low end and "borderline All-Star" on the other end and my best guess is he ends up being a decent but not great starter.  (By that I mean someone who barely makes the All-Star team and has very little presence during the game).  Seems like his feel for the game and how it flows to his decision-making is where the biggest work is needed.  The significant minutes he has played this year should help (which is where the hope that he is turning a corner to better things comes to play).

Bembry - Hard to say this year has been anything but a colossal bust.  Despite starting off with significant minutes a combination of injuries and off the court issues have kept him from even matching his minutes from last season (I expected him to well past that threshold by mid-season).  Most of his non-shooting rate numbers are even or up but his shooting has been a huge drop from last year and his turnovers have been out of control.  Unless he gets back to speed quickly, it looks like this will be a lost season for him.

Baze - Probably the best season of his career.  That 39% from 3pt range is huge for him and a career high.  He has sustained his improved ballhandling from last year but is still not that good ( 1.25 two years ago -> 1.4 last year -> 1,43 this year).  His defense has been solid with fewer examples of high energy but ineffective plays compared to years past.  I'd probably say his PER sums it up pretty well for him.  He put up a career high this year in his scoring efficiency which drove that which is good.  But it is still a mediocre 14.7 which is not that appetizing when he is set to make a little over $18M next season.  He is a solid vet with a good attitude but my view is that this type of incremental improvement is all we can really hope for from him.  Given the volatility for players in 3pt% from season to season I'm a bit worried about whether he can match this one going forward.

Collins - He has been outstanding all year - super productive in his time on the floor and very efficient putting the ball in the hoop (.580 TS%!!).  Rebounding has been very solid at 11.2 rb per 36.  What makes this a bit of a strange season for a guy so obviously our best young talent is the fact that his usage rate has just fallen over time this year:

October 24%

November 19.2%

December 19.4%

January 17.0%

February 15.8%

March 15.5%

What's up with that Bud?  His minutes have been pretty steady and he has shot no worse than 52% from the field in any month this year.  I'm hoping this has been like THJr's first season where Bud has drilled him on the basics and he can take on a bigger role next year because he deserves it.  

Dorsey - Here is the kid with the clearest upward trajectory over the course of the season.  He started the year pretty firmly glued to the bench but has taken on a significant role in February / March.  His rebounding has been fantastic for a SG (5.2 per 36) and he has averaged a miniscule 0.4 TO/game which translates to a fantastic 3.0 A/TO ratio.  On the downside, his main skill of shooting the ball hasn't been there with any consistency.  The main culprit is his woeful 35% fg%.  Given that he shoots 55% of his attempts from 3pt territory, that may be a bit deceiving but his 34.3% 3pt% and .471% TS% both....hmmmm.....let's say leave him plenty of room for improvement.  The kid has shown some bright spots this season and if he can leverage that shot to better effect in the future he looks like a keeper.

Dedmon - That brand new shiny 3pt shot this season is his biggest area of development.  It has been fantastic and allowed him to provide better spacing on the floor and to punish bigs who might prefer to camp in the paint.  It has also led to the best scoring season of his career.  Other than that, I would say he fits a bit more like DMC in that he hasn't changed what he does much but has shown he can sustain those quality minutes in a bigger role.  Looks like a valuable rotation piece for the future even though his UFA status (assuming he opts out) puts that future in a pretty cloudy place.

The rest of the roster doesn't make the cut for me to bother writing up.  Moose would be the closest but eh.

[hazer]

I really think it’s just a case of letting off the gas a little for Menace and Fresh Printz. Whether it’s intentional or just a loss of focus due to this rebuild season’s frustration is anybody’s guess.

[benhillboy]

Agree with pretty much all of the above.  

I think Dennis’ season overall was very good as he improved his most critiqued attribute of generalship: assist/ turnover up considerably with a shell of the roster he’s used to.  I can forgive his torpedoing three point shooting because he reminds me of Billups at the line.  

Next year I’ll be anxious to see Collins put on some weight and Dorsey boost his shooting and handle.

Baze seems to balance out awful play with spirited play.  He’s quite underrated as a team passer.  His uptick in play directly conincoded with stopping those insane, poor angle drives into traffic thinking he had a nice Euro step, finishing ability, and foul drawing prowess.  The coaching staff finally told him he didn’t.

I’m encouraged by Prince’s recent play but I’m still a guy who doesn’t like to argue with numbers too tough.  He still doesn’t have a Win Share yet (Cavanaugh does)  I just see so many of his young peers at the 3 making more advanced plays based on reading the action and his athleticism is disappointing (only 14 dunks at 6’8”, 220)

Deadman Walking deserves to get paid so he gone.

Two guys who are gone developed a great deal and took what they absorbed to Philly.  Light +19 and +26 tonight for Illy and Belli, respectively.  I’m confident they were instrumental in the learning of Collins, Dorsey, and Cavanaugh who I think can become an Illy light if his positioning, rebounding, and three continue to improve.   I was straight on Moose two years ago.  F@&k he still here fo.  Had he gone to Washington instead of Molly Mike he’d be in the G League.

Edited March 7, 2018 by benhillboy

[KB21]

The development of these young players is really going to be hurt over the next few years due to:

1.  The lack of quality veterans on the roster to show them the consistent effort it takes to win in the NBA.

2.  Being thrown into roles that they aren't equipped for or aren't ready to perform in.....see Taurean Prince.

3.  The losing environment that will encapsulate this franchise over the next 5 seasons.

[Peoriabird]

Thanks AHF for starting this thread

I am encouraged by what I have seen from the players mentioned in your write up. Certainly they have things to clean up in their respective games but during the 1st 3 quarters of the Raptors game especially the starters, the team is play with some cohesion on offense and defense.  A very encouraging sign for next year

Dennis will continue to improve and will be a borderline all star some day. I am convinced that some of Dennis' bad play this season comes from the top.

If Prince ever gets the mental aspect of the game down, he will no doubt be an all star.  He has length, athleticism and is an excellent spot up shooter.  Some of his helter skelter play this season had to come from the staff. Y'all can't convince me that a second year player can take 10 3 pointers, miss them all and still play 30 minutes while sucking on defense.

Collins will be an all Star!  His usage rate is trending down because no one taught how to be inefficient on purpose.

Baze is a good player just a late bloomer.  probably not an all star wing but a very good veteran starter.

Dedmon has skill and just needs more playing time and experience.

When Dorsey gains more confidence in his shot...Watch out!

[TheFuzz]

Of our guys, I think Prince will be a solid glue guy. Handle will hold him back, but as a cog in the machine he could be good.

Dennis could be a good #3, maybe #2.

Collins has similar upside to Prince IMO,  him and Prince are #4/#5 types.

Dorsey might could be an okay bench gunner. I feel similarly about Taylor and Bembry.

Bazemore's another solid #4/#5 type, along with Dedmon.

We really need to land a #1 or at least another #2 type from this draft. And fill out a bench while we're at it.

This is all my opinion of course.

[Packfill]

Good thread.  To me Collins is the only building block on the roster (assuming he can make a jump in play next season).  The rest are flawed assets.  Dennis is talented enough to start but lacks the consistency one would expect from someone with his level of experience.  Baze and Prince would be better with reduced roles of the bench.  Dedmon I expect to walk at seasons end and the rest will be lucky to carve out careers as bench pieces.

Depressing.  

Anyone think Ayton and Collins together long term is potentially a bad combo?  

[KB21]

17 minutes ago, Packfill said:

Good thread.  To me Collins is the only building block on the roster (assuming he can make a jump in play next season).  The rest are flawed assets.  Dennis is talented enough to start but lacks the consistency one would expect from someone with his level of experience.  Baze and Prince would be better with reduced roles of the bench.  Dedmon I expect to walk at seasons end and the rest will be lucky to carve out careers as bench pieces.

Depressing.  

Anyone think Ayton and Collins together long term is potentially a bad combo?  

It would be terrible defensively.  Offensively, it could work if you buy into Ayton's shot, which I'm not sure I do at this point.   That combo would be a damn tire fire defensively though.

[davis171]

3 hours ago, KB21 said:

It would be terrible defensively.  Offensively, it could work if you buy into Ayton's shot, which I'm not sure I do at this point.   That combo would be a damn tire fire defensively though.

I buy it he is a 75% ft shooter. If he wasn't a good ft shooter it is cause for concern that maybe the shot isn't real, but it goes in consistently at the line so I think he will just keep getting that shot better.

[Royjr9]

9 hours ago, KB21 said:

It would be terrible defensively.  Offensively, it could work if you buy into Ayton's shot, which I'm not sure I do at this point.   That combo would be a damn tire fire defensively though.

Kids playing a lot of pf for Arizona next to a big man that makes him play off what would be his strengths. He will be fine. Plus I think bud could do wonders with him.

[frosgrim]

21 hours ago, KB21 said:

It would be terrible defensively.  Offensively, it could work if you buy into Ayton's shot, which I'm not sure I do at this point.   That combo would be a damn tire fire defensively though.

I agree with KB. Ayton has NO defensive instincts. Watch him play and it is tentative and fumbling.  I get that folks are intrigued with the size, the shot, and just his appearance, but I just don't see anything on the court that screams next great center. I actually keep seeing another Thabeet in the guy. 

[hazer]

Donciccio or bust...

[Packfill]

2 hours ago, frosgrim said:

I agree with KB. Ayton has NO defensive instincts. Watch him play and it is tentative and fumbling.  I get that folks are intrigued with the size, the shot, and just his appearance, but I just don't see anything on the court that screams next great center. I actually keep seeing another Thabeet in the guy. 

I agree.  Ayton seems similar to Towns in regards to defense.  Shame because Ayton seems like a compelling piece for a rebuilding team like the Hawks - and definitely a better fit then someone like Bagley or Porter.  

[KB21]

21 minutes ago, Packfill said:

I agree.  Ayton seems similar to Towns in regards to defense.  Shame because Ayton seems like a compelling piece for a rebuilding team like the Hawks - and definitely a better fit then someone like Bagley or Porter.  

Towns was actually much better on defense than Ayton in college.

[Royjr9]

3 hours ago, frosgrim said:

I agree with KB. Ayton has NO defensive instincts. Watch him play and it is tentative and fumbling.  I get that folks are intrigued with the size, the shot, and just his appearance, but I just don't see anything on the court that screams next great center. I actually keep seeing another Thabeet in the guy. 

Except thabeet had no offensive game so to speak of. If you see thabeet I’m not exactly sure what your looking at.

[frosgrim]

2 minutes ago, Royjr9 said:

Except thabeet had no offensive game so to speak of. If you see thabeet I’m not exactly sure what your looking at.

Ayton and Thabeet look a lot a like on defense. Thabeet had something of an offensive game at UConn. He average over 13 points a game his last season in Storrs. Yes, in the pros he was horrid, but at UConn he was part of a final 4 team. 

[AHF]

20 minutes ago, frosgrim said:

Ayton and Thabeet look a lot a like on defense. Thabeet had something of an offensive game at UConn. He average over 13 points a game his last season in Storrs. Yes, in the pros he was horrid, but at UConn he was part of a final 4 team. 

There is no comparison on offense.  Thabeet was a distant 4th option at UConn (less than 8 FGA/GM) in his Junior year.  He shot 62.7% from the free throw line as a Junior (51.3% as a freshman) and took very few jumpers (obviously zero 3's in his 3 years of college).  He basically averaged just under 4 offensive rebounds per game and scored off of those and setups from other people.  

Bear in mind also that Thabeet had 41 assists.  Not in his junior year but in his entire college career.  0.6 assists per 40 minutes (against 2.4 turnovers).  

Ayton is the #1 option on his team, shoots jumpers in addition to bullying people inside, hits 3's, and has more assists this season than Thabeet had in 3 years and has a near 1:1 A/TO ratio compared to Thabeet's 1:4 ratio.

They are just completely different players on the offensive side of the board.  Thabeet's entire NBA value was supposed to come from his ability to dominate on defense.