The Tank Thread

[AHF]

4 minutes ago, terrell said:

Hawks win. Boo!

Hawks win the battle at the expense of the war.

[MaceCase]

2 hours ago, KB21 said:

How do you reconcile that fact that getting the better chance to get a valuable player doesn't come with a better chance of winning games?  There's a reason teams who dip into the lottery stay there for years.

I reconcile it with the correlation of valuable players hoisting the Larry O'Brien trophy every year or at minimum consistently competing with the ones that do.

[Lurker]

I ultimately need to see what the plan is beyond 1 year. If Silver isn't lying, this is going to be the last year where blatantly tanking isn't punished (and I think the draft rule changes will come into effect as well). So the incentive to be bad will not be as great from 19/20 and on. 

So this offseason will be very interesting. If almost nothing is done outside the draft, I'm going to flip flop. Because that just won't be smart at all considering what's going to happen.

This isn't college sports, where merely being decent gets celebrated all the time. That's just not the culture.

[KB21]

7 minutes ago, MaceCase said:

I reconcile it with the correlation of valuable players hoisting the Larry O'Brien trophy every year or at minimum consistently competing with the ones that do.

So, Sacramento will be hoisting the Larry O'Brien trophy soon then,, huh?

[lethalweapon3]

~picknumber9

~dwightwasnumber1

~chillzwasnumber6

[davis171]

7 minutes ago, Lurker said:

I ultimately need to see what the plan is beyond 1 year. If Silver isn't lying, this is going to be the last year where blatantly tanking isn't punished (and I think the draft rule changes will come into effect as well). So the incentive to be bad will not be as great from 19/20 and on. 

So this offseason will be very interesting. If almost nothing is done outside the draft, I'm going to flip flop. Because that just won't be smart at all considering what's going to happen.

This isn't college sports, where merely being decent gets celebrated all the time. That's just not the culture.

I don't think the lottery reform will stop tanking.

Edited March 1, 2018 by davis171

[Lurker]

Just now, davis171 said:

I don't think the lottery reform will stop tanking.

I'd need to review the rules, but didn't the lottery reform balance out tanking?

Give me a minute...

[davis171]

Just now, Lurker said:

I'd need to review the rules, but didn't the lottery reform balance out tanking?

Give me a minute...

It will be less blatant but 14% is not bad and if you are the worst team in the NBA you are still guaranteed a top 5 pick.

[Jody23]

We are now in 5th place after tonight's win.  Honestly, I'm not too disappointed as some of the younger guys played a big part in the win.  However, it reminds me of how ridiculous it was to allow guys like Ersan and Marco to play meaningful minutes and contribute to a few meaningless wins earlier on this season.  Especially when it was pretty evident that neither guy was a part of the teams short or long term future. 

Edited March 1, 2018 by Jody23

[Lurker]

Hmmm, it doesn't as much as I thought but it still is going to stop blatant tanking.

[KB21]

3 minutes ago, Jody23 said:

We are now in 5th place after tonight's win.  Honestly, I'm not too disappointed as some of the younger guys played a big part in the win.  However, it reminds me of how ridiculous it was to allow guys like Ersan and Marco to play meaningful minutes and contribute to a few meaningless wins earlier on this season.  Especially when it was pretty evident that neither guy was a part of the teams short or long term future. 

Yeah.  It would have been better for Bud to establish a culture where young players don't have to earn their time.  It's just given to them instead because management and ownership want to lose games.

[Lurker]

7 minutes ago, Jody23 said:

We are now in 5th place after tonight's win.  Honestly, I'm not too disappointed as some of the younger guys played a big part in the win.  However, it reminds me of how ridiculous it was to allow guys like Ersan and Marco to play meaningful minutes and contribute to a few meaningless wins earlier on this season.  Especially when it was pretty evident that neither guy was a part of the teams short or long term future. 

Like I've said on another thread, I see somewhere between 2nd-4th ultimately when it's lottery time. The Hawks have the hardest schedule in the NBA for the rest of the way, so there's no need to be worried about truly ruining the pick, but again, Bud will not agree to the truly appalling acts you see some tanking teams do.

[Jody23]

1 minute ago, Lurker said:

Like I've said on another thread, I see somewhere between 2nd-4th ultimately when it's lottery time. The Hawks have the hardest schedule in the NBA for the rest of the way, so there's no need to be worried about truly ruining the pick, but again, Bud will not agree to the truly appalling acts you see some tanking teams do.

I hope you're right about where we eventually pick because some of these other teams have no shame in what they're doing to tank.

[CBAreject]

Dallas took OKC to overtime before losing by 1 point.  Boy that is an elaborately stealthy tank job.

[AHF]

2 hours ago, KB21 said:

So, Sacramento will be hoisting the Larry O'Brien trophy soon then,, huh?

Sacramento that traded away their lottery pick to win now with Rondo?  The one who went out and signed expensive vets to try to win?  The one that didn't just grow their talent organically?  K.

[AHF]

2 hours ago, Lurker said:

Like I've said on another thread, I see somewhere between 2nd-4th ultimately when it's lottery time. The Hawks have the hardest schedule in the NBA for the rest of the way, so there's no need to be worried about truly ruining the pick, but again, Bud will not agree to the truly appalling acts you see some tanking teams do.

There is every reason to be worried about ruining the pick.  Schedules mean jack when teams are blatantly throwing in the towel.  We stupidly won a chunk of games and gave away our thin margin for error.  Now every win sends us down in the standings.  Too many teams packed too tightly to let any game go.

[MaceCase]

2 hours ago, KB21 said:

So, Sacramento will be hoisting the Larry O'Brien trophy soon then,, huh?

They certainly have a shot even with all of their other incompetence of trading away their picks in order to pursue vets.  Those moves even had the effect of ensuring that they picked no lower than 5th for almost 10 years.

[AHF]

We are now tied 5th place in the tank race.  That is epically worse than just yesterday.  Could fall as low as the 9th pick in the draft from there (lose coin flip with tie, get jumped in lottery).

No more :&:$-ups Hawks.  Do what you need to do and take a fine if you have to.  Would be well worth it.  (Odds are super low of getting fined).

[KB21]

8 hours ago, AHF said:

Sacramento that traded away their lottery pick to win now with Rondo?  The one who went out and signed expensive vets to try to win?  The one that didn't just grow their talent organically?  K.

Sacramento....the team that has been drafting in the lottery for 12 years now.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Quote from the Indiana game thread:

From:  Royjr9 in response to benhillboy's comment about tanking

          10 HOURS AGO, BENHILLBOY SAID:

We just bought out two very good vets and replaced them with guys who are having cups of tea in the league.  It’s unreasonable to think they’re gonna trot out a G-League lineup every night for 30 minutes and play like the Washington Generals.  I’m not smart enough to know how effectively vigilant Silver can be in his efforts to curb Tanking but he seemed to be serious about the sh@t based on his comments today.

Silver is a f@$$ moron . With all the league has gotten wrong. And mind you he long ago could have stood  up and hammered the 76ers. But choose to do nothing because he’s a stooge for the owners that signs his check. In reality he can’t do shit cause a little under half the league would be disqualified.

 

 

The only way to REALLY kill tanking at this level, is to give every single non-playoff team EQUAL odds across the board.  I mean literally give every team a 7% chance at the 14 lottery spots, and draw every single lottery spot.   

By doing this, it may INCREASE tanking by the teams near the 8th seed mark in April, that would rather lose and take a shot at the lottery, than make the playoffs and be 1st round cattle slaughter for one of the elite teams.  But I'd take that over what you're seeing right now.

But think about that.  The non-playoff teams still fighting for that 8th seed are:

• Miami: 
  • Currently the 8th seed in the East, but is only 2 games from being the 5th seed. Would they give that up just to get a 7% chance at one of the top guys in the draft?  Riley might say YES.  But their team
• Detroit: 
  • 1 playoff appearance in the past 8 years, and fighting a declining trend in attendance ( before the Blake Griffin trade ).  3 games behind Miami.  The city is starved for something good.  
• Charlotte: 
  • Almost out of the mix, seeing that they're 5.5 games back from the 8th spot.   They're the type of team that could partially "shut it down" just enough to ensure that they won't make the playoffs, and play the lottery game.  But even they wouldn't have to fully "tank" for weeks on end. 
• Denver: 
  • Currently the 8th seed in the West, but is only 2.5 games from being the 4th seed.  Seeing that they've not made the playoffs in 4 years, there's no way they're purposely losing, just to get a 7% chance to get the top pick.  Their fans deserve a playoff series, for the season they've had so far.
• LA Clippers: 
  • Now HERE'S a team with a real dilemma.  You're .5 games from the 8th spot.  And you're 4 games out from the 4th seed.  But you ALSO have the potential to get two "tickets" into the Lottery, if you and Detroit miss the playoffs . . . or ZERO if you and Detroit make the playoffs.  
  • You know your team is probably not good enough to beat Houston, Golden State or San Antonio in a 1st round matchup.  So do you fight hard to get into the playoffs?  Or do you "fight hard" and barely miss the playoffs, guaranteeing yourself at least one lottery ticket?  
• Utah: 
  • Currently 2 games out of the 8th spot.  They have a decent team with a potential All-Star in the making. But would it benefit them to play the lottery in this season, than to make the playoffs?  Or would player development, and the experience of this group, led by Mitchell, benefit them more? 
  • The Hawks actually had a decision like this in 2013, when they could've dialed it down and not made the playoffs.  They decided to go for it and get that 8th seed.  They pushed Indiana to a Game 7.  The next season, we win 60 games.

 

I've long said that I would rather see a top level player go to a borderline good team to improve their status, than to waste their early years on a very bad team where they really can't improve the team right away.  Think Jayson Tatum on the Sacramento Kings, compared to Tatum on the Celtics.

The argument has always been that . . . "Oh, you have to elevate the bad teams with high draft picks when they have bad seasons, so that they can get better players."   

No you don't.   Why should the Hawks get a 25% ( or next year, a 14% chance ) at the #1 pick, when they PURPOSELY got rid of all of their talent and are blatantly trying to lose?   If the bad non-playoff teams knew they only had an equal 7% chance at getting ANY lottery pick ( not just the top 3 ), they'll stop all of this foolishness, and truly focus on building rosters that would improve their teams.

So just for kicks, I wrote the current 14 teams eligible for a lottery pick on a piece of paper, cut it up, and put their names in a hat.  Every name has a 7.14% chance of being chosen.  The Clippers, due to the Blake Griffin trade, currently have 2 lottery picks.  So they have the highest odds out of everyone at 14.2%

I'll draw the last pick first, with the final draw between the last two pieces of paper being who gets the #1 pick.  Beside it, I'll write what the current odds today would say gets that pick. 

GREEN means that their draft position improved by more than 2 positions.  RED means that it dropped by more than 2 positions.  BLACK means that their draft positions either dropped or rose no more than 2 spots.

 

14 - LA Clippers . . ( LA Clippers )

13 - Orlando . . . . . ( Utah )

12 - Dallas . . . . . . . ( LA Clippers ) 

11 - Philadelphia . . . . . . ( Charlotte )

10 - Sacramento . . ( Philadelphia )

9 - New York . . . . . ( New York )

8 - Charlotte . . . . . . ( Chicago )

7 - Utah . . . . . . . . . . ( Cleveland )

 

At this point, people would be crying to the heavens because Cleveland is about to get a top 6 pick.  Your Atlanta Hawks are still in the mix.  The Clippers are going to be able to add a top 6 pick to their already decent group, and get something tangible back from the Blake Griffin trade.   I think that's BETTER for the league, than that top 6 pick going to a bad team.   Dallas and Sacramento would be the big losers in this scenario.  Boo-fuggin-hoo.

 

6 - LA Clippers . . . . . ( Dallas )

5 - Phoenix . . . . . . . . ( Atlanta )

4 - Chicago . . . . . . . . ( Phoenix )

 

So your top 3 teams left would be . . Atlanta, Memphis, and unbelievably . . . Cleveland.  Fans would cry around the league, saying that the rich would get richer.  I say . . suck it up.  Teams should stop making bad deals with high level playoff teams.  Brooklyn started this.  Boston flipped it for a great asset.  And Cleveland will finish it, by picking in the top 3.

 

3 - Atlanta . . . . . . . . . ( Memphis ) . . . . . See?  We get a top 3 pick.  Woo-hoo!!

2 - Cleveland . . . . . .  ( Sacramento )

 

So the #1 pick in the 2018 NBA draft would go to . . . .