Supes v. KB, Nope! Just some JJJ v. Marvin Bagley talk

[NBASupes]

3 hours ago, KB21 said:

Actually, from a numbers standpoint, Bagley is most similar to Jahlil Okafor:

Bagley: 10.7 BPM, 7.7 OBPM, 3.0 DBPM

Okafor: 10.9 BPM, 6.8 OBPM, 4.1 DBPM

Zack Collins has a higher WS than JJJ. 

[Flight]

4 hours ago, KB21 said:

When you ignore numbers, you get Andrew Wiggins and pass on Joel Embiid.

Speaking of ignoring numbers, you’ve been ignoring a good amount that I’ve thrown up. Any analytic explanation on why JJJ disappeared so often this season? 

Also, does rebounding not count as bringing something to the table? Aside from scoring Bagley is REALLY good and that. And surprisingly JJJ is not.

[Spud2nique]

Look, for those of us that have been fans forever know 1 thing. WE NEED A FACE OF THE FRANCHISE AND A SEXY ONE AT THAT. Al Horford wasn’t the face of a franchise type of player even though he was solid throughout as a Hawk. We have the 3rd pick but we need to swing for the motherfucking fences people. 

 

Sexy picks:

Bagley

Doncic

Young

Bamba

Porter

 

not sexy:

JJJ- This kid is going to get drafted and buried on the bench because he’s “too young and raw” and it will hamper his future in a big way.

 

[DBac]

I dunno I look at the future of the league and see all these skilled legit bigs like Porzingis, Embiid, AD, KAT, Jokic and then the big ball handlers with poor jumpers like Giannis and Simmons, and I think a top tier defensive 5 is going to be more valuable than ever. Especially one that can't be ran off the floor by small ball lineups. Foul rate doesn't bother me too much, a lot of great defensive bigs struggled with fouls their freshman year of college. I don't care too much about posting up big men, but fwiw I think his ability there is underrated and he'd certainly be able to take advantage of mismatches.

Bagley/Collins could work with the way the game is right now, but long term I worry that we're gonna be opening ourselves up to getting bullied by the competition that we should worry about. Both of them have kind of slight frames and (below) average length to affect these guys. So only take Bagley if you're confident that he's superior to Collins (not just marginally better). But I don't think they can coexist long term. Also I don't see Bagley as a #1 option or else I'd have him over JJJ. If he was a #1 option type then you could forgive the defense and try to build around his weaknesses. Nonetheless, Bagley is exactly the type of player I find myself loving in the NBA. Dog mentality, hyper athletic I'm a sucker for it so I wouldn't be mad if he was the pick just for that personal bias. 

Trae would be hella fun. He measured smaller than I anticipated at the combine. My worry with him is that he's just gonna be too small. Boston and Philly are big almost across the board. Milwaukee obviously has tons of size/length as well. That could disrupt him offensively (can he get his shot off/finish at the rim) and defensively (getting hunted). So he's super risky compared to the other primary creator (Doncic). But in terms of flash, fit, positional importance, offensive ability he'd be a great get. Him and Collins would be dynamic and produce a lot of highlights. I like that with Trae(and Doncic) you'd immediately have an offensive identity. (Also doesn't hurt that he's the best bet in the draft to put butts in seats immediately.)

[hazer]

8 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

Look, for those of us that have been fans forever know 1 thing. WE NEED A FACE OF THE FRANCHISE AND A SEXY ONE AT THAT. Al Horford wasn’t the face of a franchise type of player even though he was solid throughout as a Hawk. We have the 3rd pick but we need to swing for the motherfucking fences people. 

 

Sexy picks:

Bagley

Doncic

Young

Bamba

Porter

 

not sexy:

JJJ- This kid is going to get drafted and buried on the bench because he’s “too young and raw” and it will hamper his future in a big way.

 

Agreed. The casual Atlanta fan wants/needs/craves a flashier star type player. That ain’t JJJ.

[KB21]

7 minutes ago, Flight said:

Speaking of ignoring numbers, you’ve been ignoring a good amount that I’ve thrown up. Any analytic explanation on why JJJ disappeared so often this season? 

Also, does rebounding not count as bringing something to the table? Aside from scoring Bagley is REALLY good and that. And surprisingly JJJ is not.

I only ignore numbers that don't mean anything, like PPG, RPG, and other counting stats.  BPM is the most translatable advanced analytic.  PER rewards players for offense and doesn't take into account defensive impact.  Win Shares is a volume dependent stat.  

An example.  The top 5 all time in BPM among college freshman are Anthony Davis, Karl Anthony Towns, Jaren Jackson Jr, Joel Embiid, and Nerlens Noel.  Noel is the only outlier in this group.  Outside of Jaren Jackson Jr, all were taken in the top 6 picks, and only Noel wasn't taken in the top 3.

 

[KB21]

My point has been proven.  You guys are more interested in flash than winning.  Flash does not equate winning.  Thanks for admitting what I already knew.  This is why you fall prey to the hype machine from ESPN and the shoe companies.

You dislike JJJ because he's not going to be put on very many ESPN top 10 highlights.  It's that simple.  He's going to help his team win games, but because he doesn't bring flash and flair to his game, he's not any good.

In contrast, Marvin Bagley is going to get the finishes around the rim that get the ESPN highlights.  He's going to put up pretty counting stats that make you believe he is making a tremendous impact, when in real life, his impact on winning will be very minimal.  There is a reason JJJ has a higher projected 5 year WARP than Marvin Bagley at this point.

That's all it took.  All you had to do was admit that you are more interested in flash than substance, and you did that.  

[hazer]

4 minutes ago, KB21 said:

My point has been proven.  You guys are more interested in flash than winning.  Flash does not equate winning.  Thanks for admitting what I already knew.  This is why you fall prey to the hype machine from ESPN and the shoe companies.

You dislike JJJ because he's not going to be put on very many ESPN top 10 highlights.  It's that simple.  He's going to help his team win games, but because he doesn't bring flash and flair to his game, he's not any good.

In contrast, Marvin Bagley is going to get the finishes around the rim that get the ESPN highlights.  He's going to put up pretty counting stats that make you believe he is making a tremendous impact, when in real life, his impact on winning will be very minimal.  There is a reason JJJ has a higher projected 5 year WARP than Marvin Bagley at this point.

That's all it took.  All you had to do was admit that you are more interested in flash than substance, and you did that.  

So disregard my post right before that where I stated I want Doncic and Bamba. And misread my post to mean I want a flashy star, when I actually wrote “the casual Atlanta fan” wants that. You claim to be smarter than that. 

[KB21]

1 minute ago, hazer said:

So disregard my post right before that where I stated I want Doncic and Bamba. And misread my post to mean I want a flashy star, when I actually wrote “the casual Atlanta fan” wants that. You claim to be smarter than that. 

I didn't respond to you, though you did agree with the post.

[Royjr9]

19 minutes ago, KB21 said:

My point has been proven.  You guys are more interested in flash than winning.  Flash does not equate winning.  Thanks for admitting what I already knew.  This is why you fall prey to the hype machine from ESPN and the shoe companies.

You dislike JJJ because he's not going to be put on very many ESPN top 10 highlights.  It's that simple.  He's going to help his team win games, but because he doesn't bring flash and flair to his game, he's not any good.

In contrast, Marvin Bagley is going to get the finishes around the rim that get the ESPN highlights.  He's going to put up pretty counting stats that make you believe he is making a tremendous impact, when in real life, his impact on winning will be very minimal.  There is a reason JJJ has a higher projected 5 year WARP than Marvin Bagley at this point.

That's all it took.  All you had to do was admit that you are more interested in flash than substance, and you did that.  

That’s a lot of generalizing I mean the kid did show he can hit the long ball. Regardlesss I could care less about the name and more about the game. Bags strikes me as a guy that wouldn’t get pulled off the court or marginalized  much like we saw Capela and Gobert. He still will be able to score and rebound.

[KB21]

2 minutes ago, Royjr9 said:

That’s a lot of generalizing I mean the kid did show he can hit the long ball. Regardlesss I could care less about the name and more about the game. Bags strikes me as a guy that wouldn’t get pulled off the court or marginalized  much like we saw Capela and Gobert. He still will be able to score and rebound.

On a legitimate team, Bagley would get pulled a ton because he is going to be unplayable on defense on most nights.

[Royjr9]

2 minutes ago, KB21 said:

On a legitimate team, Bagley would get pulled a ton because he is going to be unplayable on defense on most nights.

Agree to disagree. He can become a better defender he just won’t fit into your bubble of all defensive.

[GThawks3]

So JJJ equates to winning games at the NBA level yet he couldn’t even get crucial minutes in college at the most important part of their season? Makes sense.

[KB21]

Just now, Royjr9 said:

Agree to disagree. He can become a better defender he just won’t fit into your bubble of all defensive.

Him becoming a better defender would be akin to Andrew Wiggins becoming a better defender.  I've never seen a player as bad at defense as Bagley is become good at it in the NBA.

[Spud2nique]

4 minutes ago, KB21 said:

On a legitimate team, Bagley would get pulled a ton because he is going to be unplayable on defense on most nights.

JJJ did not produce in college and the nba will be the same song and dance. The kid is resting on the laurels of papa sr. He doesn’t have IT. He doesn’t wanna be great brah.

[Spud2nique]

1 minute ago, GThawks3 said:

So JJJ equates to winning games at the NBA level yet he couldn’t even get crucial minutes in college at the most important part of their season? Makes sense.

Hahaha I just literally wrote that..didn’t have it in college..Izzo glued him unready ass to the bench and rightfully so imo. He went out there looking all duckish. Lol. 

[KB21]

Just now, Spud2nique said:

JJJ did not produce in college and the nba will be the same song and dance. The kid is resting on the laurels of papa sr. He doesn’t have IT. He doesn’t wanna be great brah.

Third highest BPM among freshmen all time.  He produced.  Oh, he didn't produce the flash you want, but he did produce to a similar level as Anthony Davis, Karl Anthony Towns, and Joel Embiiid, whereas Bagley produced more at the level of Jahlil Okafor.

[Flight]

27 minutes ago, KB21 said:

I only ignore numbers that don't mean anything, like PPG, RPG, and other counting stats.  BPM is the most translatable advanced analytic.  PER rewards players for offense and doesn't take into account defensive impact.  Win Shares is a volume dependent stat.  

An example.  The top 5 all time in BPM among college freshman are Anthony Davis, Karl Anthony Towns, Jaren Jackson Jr, Joel Embiid, and Nerlens Noel.  Noel is the only outlier in this group.  Outside of Jaren Jackson Jr, all were taken in the top 6 picks, and only Noel wasn't taken in the top 3.

 

 

So the numbers that literally happen right in front of your eyes in a game are the ones you ignore, but you also think that we shouldn’t ignore numbers...

It just seems weird that you’d blatantly ignore the eye test and look at one specific stat to justify who you like. The BPM debate is washed, we all know it doesn’t guarantee they’ll produce well in the league and it can deceive you, especially if a players minutes were limited. 

My entire point was that you won’t win a championship without an elite offensive player and you changed the subject and still haven’t shown me otherwise. 

[Royjr9]

2 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Him becoming a better defender would be akin to Andrew Wiggins becoming a better defender.  I've never seen a player as bad at defense as Bagley is become good at it in the NBA.

You saying the can’t but like I said they have to become better as in passable doesn’t mean that they can’t. 

[AHF]

Just now, KB21 said:

Third highest BPM among freshmen all time.  He produced.  Oh, he didn't produce the flash you want, but he did produce to a similar level as Anthony Davis, Karl Anthony Towns, and Joel Embiiid, whereas Bagley produced more at the level of Jahlil Okafor.

You'd agree he wasn't a significant factor for MSt in the NCAA tournament, right?  I think you are looking full season while others are focusing on the tourney.