The plan going forward (and other things you'll argue with me about)

[thecampster]

So basically I keep hearing people talk about the salary we'll have in 2020.  Let me put that to rest. We will not have that money. It isn't going to happen. It will mostly be gone by that time.

1st - the Hawks have future firsts coming next year that will cost at least $5 million in space and at least 2 roster spots.

2nd - The (as of right now) only have 4 players under contract for next year plus the 3 rookies.  Including the rookies and the 2 draft picks we'll have 6 empty slots.

3rd - it is a very weak free agent market next year comparatively and there is not $60 million in value out there for us right now.

4th - We will be competitive this year and potentially a playoff team. Depending upon A) if we overachieve and B) what talent we get after Sunday, we may be buyers at the trade deadline. Here is how that will work for us.  We will (as of this moment) have 7 very attractive expiring contracts (assuming we still have Adams) for close to $70 million dollars. Any trade with the Hawks will means packaging 1 or more of those expirings for high priced, long term deals on other teams (see Kevin Love as an example). It is very reasonable to see the Hawks packaging 4 of those expiring contracts in 2 separate deals for 2 players at the deadline making in excess of $20 million each. Such a deal would leave us with less than $30 million next year and about 4 slots to fill and other players coming up for renewal in the future.

5th - If we are sellers, we will be taking back young players on 2 year or longer contracts which will eat into the potential 70 million. A deal like that would be something like Crabbe to team X for a pick and a collection of lower priced players (waiving one). This would mostly wipe out the Crabbe salary from next year.

 

In short...it is way to early to be counting these particular chickens.

[Buzzard]

I don't think we have any future 1st coming in now for next year. We traded the Cavs top 10 protected to the Pelicans. Even if we didn't, they will not be outside the top 10 in the lottery barring a miracle. I do agree, we may use our expiring contracts to wheel and deal, but that is just a guess. If you go by only the facts, we can have that cap space next season.

Edited June 28, 2019 by Buzzard

[Diesel]

Glacier like Advancement!

 

[Buzzard]

1 minute ago, Diesel said:

Glacier like Advancement!

 

Minimum 10 more wins. Not lightening in a bottle but it is a nice improvement.

[Diesel]

10 minutes ago, Buzzard said:

Minimum 10 more wins. Not lightening in a bottle but it is a nice improvement.

I love how people make moves in a vacuum.   Let's wait and see what happens with our contemporaries.  The Knicks and Nets could get good overnight.

Moreover, we're still depending on a lot of youth.  This is not football.  In Basketball, Youth doesn't win much.

[Buzzard]

6 minutes ago, Diesel said:

I love how people make moves in a vacuum.   Let's wait and see what happens with our contemporaries.  The Knicks and Nets could get good overnight.

Moreover, we're still depending on a lot of youth.  This is not football.  In Basketball, Youth doesn't win much.

As usual you are playing the antagonist. 39 wins is not a lot and does not make the playoffs. Your vacuum is teams in the East only get better while we sit still. Usually when someone gains in free agency, a similar amount of teams lose. Charlotte, Raptors, Boston, Miami are just few who could be on the downside or be losers this year. Get out of your vacuum.

Not everyone in the East is going to be a winner when free agency ends this year.

[Peoriabird]

1 hour ago, thecampster said:

Any trade with the Hawks will means packaging 1 or more of those expirings for high priced, long term deals on other teams (see Kevin Love as an example).

I know this board loves Kevin Love for some reason but we have to give it up.  Schlenk does not want Kevin Love.  Personally, I think Schlenk will sign Dedmon to a 2 possibly 3 year deal when free agency starts.  There is too much smoke for this not to be the case and i would love it.  secondly I think Bembry gets resigned and Bruno gets a 4 year deal.  That would leave us with Collins, Trae, Huerter, Bembry, Bruno, Cam, Hunter, Dedmon and Spellman.  That's 9 players right there.  The draft will yield at least 3 players so that makes 12 with 3 spots available.  The other 3 spot will be filled with a couple of smart  bargain free agents.

[JayBirdHawk]

56 minutes ago, Buzzard said:

I don't think we have any future 1st coming in now for next year. We traded the Cavs top 10 protected to the Pelicans. Even if we didn't, they will not be outside the top 10 in the lottery barring a miracle. I do agree, we may use our expiring contracts to wheel and deal, but that is just a guess. If you go by only the facts, we can have that cap space next season.

We have Brooklyn's lottery protected pick next season.

[Buzzard]

2 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

We have Brooklyn's lottery protected pick next season.

I thought that was for the year after due to the "Brooklyn" rule of trading consecutive 1st. I could be wrong though; it would not be the 1st or last time.

[JayBirdHawk]

2 minutes ago, Buzzard said:

I thought that was for the year after due to the "Brooklyn" rule of trading consecutive 1st. I could be wrong though; it would not be the 1st or last time.

The trade technically hasn't occured, so they are actually trading the player they picked at #17. So it's no considered  consecutive picks.

[thecampster]

So uhm...the Hawks started last year 6 and 23. When you try to fit them in the box of the whole season of 29 wins, you really aren't looking at the tale of 2 seasons.  The reality is they were 6 and 23 and then they were 23 and 30 over the next 53...a much larger sample. Now this is very much dependent on health but if they continue to play at the 23/30 place they are set for 36 wins already.   If look at the last 22 games....10 and 12.  The point is they got better and better as the year went on.  39 wins is not crazy.  Judge them including the first 29 games and they're terrible. Judge them on the last 53 (a much larger and much bigger sample) and 39 is implied, not a stretch.

When you consider off-season improvement by Collins, Young and Huerter....   .500 is reasonable.  I'm not being optimistic, I'm just relying on the last 53 games of the season.  Basic logic and reason points to that money being spent at the trade deadline.

[REHawksFan]

5 minutes ago, thecampster said:

So uhm...the Hawks started last year 6 and 23. When you try to fit them in the box of the whole season of 29 wins, you really aren't looking at the tale of 2 seasons.  The reality is they were 6 and 23 and then they were 23 and 30 over the next 53...a much larger sample. Now this is very much dependent on health but if they continue to play at the 23/30 place they are set for 36 wins already.   If look at the last 22 games....10 and 12.  The point is they got better and better as the year went on.  39 wins is not crazy.  Judge them including the first 29 games and they're terrible. Judge them on the last 53 (a much larger and much bigger sample) and 39 is implied, not a stretch.

When you consider off-season improvement by Collins, Young and Huerter....   .500 is reasonable.  I'm not being optimistic, I'm just relying on the last 53 games of the season.  Basic logic and reason points to that money being spent at the trade deadline.

Agree with this. You can almost use the last 53 games as the baseline and then start to look at natural improvements from young guys and get well over 40 wins. 

It's just a pretty stark statement to say we go from 29 wins to 45. But it's certainly possible without many extraordinary assumptions. 

[bleachkit]

A big part of it is how hard are we trying to win? Regular season is all about effort. 

[Peoriabird]

4 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

A big part of it is how hard are we trying to win? Regular season is all about effort. 

I hear this a lot...What would make you think that they aren't trying to win?

[bleachkit]

28 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

I hear this a lot...What would make you think that they aren't trying to win?

I believe the Hawks are absolutely trying to win. But it seems like regular season records do not necessarily reflect the best teams.

[Diesel]

3 hours ago, Buzzard said:

As usual you are playing the antagonist. 39 wins is not a lot and does not make the playoffs. Your vacuum is teams in the East only get better while we sit still. Usually when someone gains in free agency, a similar amount of teams lose. Charlotte, Raptors, Boston, Miami are just few who could be on the downside or be losers this year. Get out of your vacuum.

Not everyone in the East is going to be a winner when free agency ends this year.

No.  The easily missed point is that we are an incredibly young team with no real vet presence.  The vets we have no nothing about this franchise or the coach.  We pray that VC comes back to give us some guidance.   Moreover, other teams will probably get better because of their FA acquisitions.   Again, I'm not saying we won't but we're not moving towards anything.   I do believe that some teams will get worse... like Charlotte and maybe Orlando.  However, Washington is coming back simply because of being less injured.  Toronto doesn't beat Philly without a lucky bounce.  The Celtics are going down but they will still be above our level.  Milwaukee hasn't done any wrong in terms of player movement.    While the east is not strong on the top like the West, there is parity. 

[Buzzard]

9 minutes ago, Diesel said:

No.  The easily missed point is that we are an incredibly young team with no real vet presence.  The vets we have no nothing about this franchise or the coach.  We pray that VC comes back to give us some guidance.   Moreover, other teams will probably get better because of their FA acquisitions.   Again, I'm not saying we won't but we're not moving towards anything.   I do believe that some teams will get worse... like Charlotte and maybe Orlando.  However, Washington is coming back simply because of being less injured.  Toronto doesn't beat Philly without a lucky bounce.  The Celtics are going down but they will still be above our level.  Milwaukee hasn't done any wrong in terms of player movement.    While the east is not strong on the top like the West, there is parity. 

I think we improve. The last two to three months, Trae and John were playing like all stars. Len was knocking down threes at a solid pace. Big questions for me is going to be how much will we miss Prince and Bazemore? If Hunter, Cam, and Evan Turner can improve over those two we will be a better team. Dedmon is another question that needs to be answered as well.

We are young but with the experience Trae, John, Huerter, and Len gained last year I am not as worried as you are.

[Diesel]

3 minutes ago, Buzzard said:

I think we improve. The last two to three months, Trae and John were playing like all stars. Len was knocking down threes at a solid pace. Big questions for me is going to be how much will we miss Prince and Bazemore? If Hunter, Cam, and Evan Turner can improve over those two we will be a better team. Dedmon is another question that needs to be answered as well.

We are young but with the experience Trae, John, Huerter, and Len gained last year I am not as worried as you are.

Come on man.  How long have you been watching Basketball.   This is Josh and Josh at the end of their first year.  Looked great... but at the end of the season, a lot of other teams go into cruise control.  Here's the deal...  Next years... some teams will get better.   Some teams will have a better scouting report on Trae.  Some teams will return from injury... Washington and Indy comes to mind.   We're young... no shame in that.  And Young teams Historically doesn't do so well and doesn't have great jumps in wins... I would be modest and say if we jump, it will be about 33 wins.   That's if we don't make major changes.   You think that Hunter and Cam are going to come in ready for the speed and physicality of this game?? Give us one more year before we start talking playoffs and 40 wins.   We may even get a coveted FA next year. 

[High5]

I can't imagine Schlenk doing everything he's done to acquire a bloated contract like Kevin Love's. 

[JTB]

@thecampster based on your theory of what’s going to happen with the massive cap space ....we’re going to use it before 2020 free agency which is fine but are you basically implying that schlenk is going to combine these expiring deals to trade to a team for a quality semi young  vet that can help this young team? 

Sorry I’m really just trying to understand exactly where you are coming from cause it sounds like you’re basically just saying schlenk is going to sell the idea of gaining cap space to teams so that we can acquire a good player that way. Perhaps another Leonard/Paul George like situation where we may take on a one year rental for a marquee star or we use the expiring deals to add another good young piece to this team that has upside and good potential....

if that’s what you’re saying I’d like to know what star or young player(s) you’d be referring to because I was with you until you mentioned Love! The only reason Love should be taken is if he comes WITH the Cavs lottery 1st rd pick and it’s only top 3 protected . Other than that I don’t see why schlenk would trade expiring deals for a player like Love unless you can get major additional assets in return .

 

last I want to say that I do agree that 2020 is a weak free agency in terms of star talent however I’ve proposed the idea that schlenk should use the massive cap space to deepen the team! As someone has pointed out (I believe @Buzzard)...Trae and John were playing like all stars over the second half of the season together and it’s reasonable as you know to think they’ll continue to get even better therefore the assumption around here that we NEED to go after big time free agents shouldn’t be that! It’s very possible schlenk already has drafted our all stars in Trae and Collins and possibly one of these other lottery picks...so why not use that massive cap space to surround young all stars in the making  with insurmountable talent similar to what schlenk helped the warriors do in 2015 off season signing iggy, barbosa, Livingston to deepen the team around curry and klay!...schlenk and this staff should create massive depth with the massive cap space I say and there are very good bench role players in next years free agency.