And so....it begins! NBA Season Restarts! July 30th - October 12th.

[AHF]

40 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

No way they bring non play off teams back for 3 games. They either finish the 82 or have some mini tournament thing.

I think it is very, very possible they do not finish the 82 and cut the season short.  I'd guess that is more likely than running out the full 82.  They need to hit 70 games for the TV money.  After that, the main thing is not running into complications that would stop the playoffs and all it takes is a single COVID case to ruin the playoffs.  Think of what it would have been like for the Jazz to be doing their playoff series without Mitchell and Gobert.  Or LA without LeBron/AD or Kawhi/George.  Limiting the number of games limits that risk and without the ability to play in front of a crowd there isn't much financial incentive to do a full 82 versus some shortened season variant.  And there is plenty of precedent for a shortened season.

[macdaddy]

39 minutes ago, AHF said:

I think it is very, very possible they do not finish the 82 and cut the season short.  I'd guess that is more likely than running out the full 82.  They need to hit 70 games for the TV money.  After that, the main thing is not running into complications that would stop the playoffs and all it takes is a single COVID case to ruin the playoffs.  Think of what it would have been like for the Jazz to be doing their playoff series without Mitchell and Gobert.  Or LA without LeBron/AD or Kawhi/George.  Limiting the number of games limits that risk and without the ability to play in front of a crowd there isn't much financial incentive to do a full 82 versus some shortened season variant.  And there is plenty of precedent for a shortened season.

That's really the issue.  It's going to be an * championship anyway but stars getting quarantined will make it something totally else.  But it's worth a try I guess.  

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

[bleachkit]

5 hours ago, macdaddy said:

That's really the issue.  It's going to be an * championship anyway but stars getting quarantined will make it something totally else.  But it's worth a try I guess.  

I doubt we will see many players quarantined. Positivity rate is going down and down by the week (rate of positive versus negative among tests taken). They will do tests at the outset as well. I personally will consider this championship completely legitimate, so long as the teams are playing hard, and I expect they will be.

[bleachkit]

6 hours ago, AHF said:

I think it is very, very possible they do not finish the 82 and cut the season short.  I'd guess that is more likely than running out the full 82.  They need to hit 70 games for the TV money.  After that, the main thing is not running into complications that would stop the playoffs and all it takes is a single COVID case to ruin the playoffs.  Think of what it would have been like for the Jazz to be doing their playoff series without Mitchell and Gobert.  Or LA without LeBron/AD or Kawhi/George.  Limiting the number of games limits that risk and without the ability to play in front of a crowd there isn't much financial incentive to do a full 82 versus some shortened season variant.  And there is plenty of precedent for a shortened season.

I cant see the NBA making teams spend a month preparing and scrimmaging and relocating to the bubble just for 3 games. I will be absolutely shocked if that happens. I think having an NITesque tournament for non playoff teams would be fun. NBA should get creative, do something fun and different. 

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

[AHF]

11 hours ago, bleachkit said:

I cant see the NBA making teams spend a month preparing and scrimmaging and relocating to the bubble just for 3 games. I will be absolutely shocked if that happens. I think having an NITesque tournament for non playoff teams would be fun. NBA should get creative, do something fun and different. 

If the goal is for every team to hit 70 games, they can't do 3 games under any circumstances.  For example, GS needs 5 games.  

I just don't see the upside for playing out the full 82 and do see downside to the playoffs.  Maybe they come up with a good formula for making money on additional games without crowds or conclude that there is serious value in being the first league to start back up in earnest and that there is long-term brand building that makes what will likely be game-to-game operating losses worthwhile.

You are entitled to view this as a legit championship but this season is already scrapped from a competitive standpoint for me.  This type of disruption completely changes how the season would have gone.  For me, the champion this season will be similar to if the NBA just held a big tournament.  It is its own victory rather than the product of a full season of play and development.

[High5]

This season will have an asterisk if there is a champion, but honestly I think it plays out the same way: Milwaukee vs one of the LA teams. They’re veteran teams that will navigate the weirdness just fine.

[macdaddy]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

If the goal is for every team to hit 70 games, they can't do 3 games under any circumstances.  For example, GS needs 5 games.  

I just don't see the upside for playing out the full 82 and do see downside to the playoffs.  Maybe they come up with a good formula for making money on additional games without crowds or conclude that there is serious value in being the first league to start back up in earnest and that there is long-term brand building that makes what will likely be game-to-game operating losses worthwhile.

You are entitled to view this as a legit championship but this season is already scrapped from a competitive standpoint for me.  This type of disruption completely changes how the season would have gone.  For me, the champion this season will be similar to if the NBA just held a big tournament.  It is its own victory rather than the product of a full season of play and development.

I agree 100% but the only comparison we have is strike shortened seasons and for the most part no one remembers that the champion that year was in an abbreviated season.  I think this is completely different because no one will forget this cluster-whoops but you never know what looking back will be like. 

[AHF]

24 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

I agree 100% but the only comparison we have is strike shortened seasons and for the most part no one remembers that the champion that year was in an abbreviated season.  I think this is completely different because no one will forget this cluster-whoops but you never know what looking back will be like. 

That's fair.  It will probably go down as just a ring on someone's resume.

1 hour ago, High5 said:

This season will have an asterisk if there is a champion, but honestly I think it plays out the same way: Milwaukee vs one of the LA teams. They’re veteran teams that will navigate the weirdness just fine.

That is the interesting question.  A team like Milwaukee that loses its synchronicity due to the layoff will be much more vulnerable.  In contrast, I think the Lakers should have less downside risk as long as AD and LeBron are healthy and available.  Likewise, it seems to me that a lower seed team could get into a groove quicker than other teams and end up with a big competitive advantage from that which swings a series in a way it would be very unlikely to see after a continuous season.

It will certainly be interesting to see how the playoffs turn out this year.

[bleachkit]

A lot of Debbie Downers here. If we are going to come back, let's make the best of it. The doomsdayers have been off the mark thoughout this whole thing. They said Covid-19 will kill children and young adults in droves, not just the old or the infirm. Wrong. They said reopening the economy would be catastrophic. Wrong. They said sports had no chance of coming back. Wrong. By the time July rolls around the fear and anxiety regarding Covid-19 will have waned considerably. 

[JayBirdHawk]

I'll let the Historians/Talking heads talk and debate the merits of asterisk champions...I will just be happy to watch basketball if they've made the collective decision that it's safe for them to come back and play.

[AHF]

13 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

A lot of Debbie Downers here. If we are going to come back, let's make the best of it. The doomsdayers have been off the mark thoughout this whole thing. They said Covid-19 will kill children and young adults in droves, not just the old or the infirm. Wrong. They said reopening the economy would be catastrophic. Wrong. They said sports had no chance of coming back. Wrong. By the time July rolls around the fear and anxiety regarding Covid-19 will have waned considerably. 

Are you predicting crowds?  Otherwise, I don't think optimism or pessimism has anything to do with operating losses or profits from running games without crowds on TV.  

I think the NBA will be driven by money on this.  If they have a way to make more money on an 82 game schedule then that will give them every incentive to find a way.  If the economic models for lost revenue from crowdless games play out, the league will be financially better off shortening the season to some number closer to 70.

(On the reopening the economy, the results are lagging by several weeks so we'll find out in the future how this works out.  I'm hoping that the warmer temperatures will mitigate a lot of the increased contact that comes with the partial reopenings we have seen so far.)

[bleachkit]

2 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I'll let the Historians/Talking heads talk and debate the merits of asterisk champions...I will just be happy to watch basketball if they've made the collective decision that it's safe for them to come back and play.

What's your definition of safe? I keep hearing this refrain from players and pundits alike, to come back when it's safe. If safe means absolutely zero risk of Covid-19 infections, then no basketball, really no business or interactions of any kind can reach that bar. If safe means that a hospitalization or fatality from Covid-19 is highly unlikely, and measures can be taken to further minimize this remote and improbable negative outcome, then yes it's absolutely safe.

[bleachkit]

1 minute ago, AHF said:

Are you predicting crowds?  Otherwise, I don't think optimism or pessimism has anything to do with operating losses or profits from running games without crowds on TV.  

I think the NBA will be driven by money on this.  If they have a way to make more money on an 82 game schedule then that will give them every incentive to find a way.  If the economic models for lost revenue from crowdless games play out, the league will be financially better off shortening the season to some number closer to 70.

I don't know the leagues exact finances, not going down that rabbit hole, but you seem to keep implying this is just a vacuous cash grab, playing out the string merely to meet television quotas, and not much else.

My thinking is, if we are going to do this, lets have compelling and interesting basketball. Let's be creative, NBA changed things up with the all Star game. Why not try something with the end of the season for non playoff teams? They made the hurculean effort to come back after all. By the time July rolls around, the voices pleading "it's just too risky" will no longer be drowning everyone else out. 

[JayBirdHawk]

7 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

What's your definition of safe? I keep hearing this refrain from players and pundits alike, to come back when it's safe. If safe means absolutely zero risk of Covid-19 infections, then no basketball, really no business or interactions of any kind can reach that bar. If safe means that a hospitalization or fatality from Covid-19 is highly unlikely, and measures can be taken to further minimize this remote and improbable negative outcome, then yes it's absolutely safe.

It starts with the ability to test.

It's not for me to say when it's safe for THEM. They are the ones dealing with it. The risk is not just about these all world athletes, they also have to worry about their families who will be quarantining with them.

Example: Mike Conley's wife is pregnant, what if he had gotten CV19 from Gobert? You can say, his wife can stay home, but would he want to be away for that time frame. These guys get payed a lot, but they aren't robots.  They are the ones to determine how much risk they are willing to take.

[bleachkit]

19 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

It starts with the ability to test.

It's not for me to say when it's safe for THEM. They are the ones dealing with it. The risk is not just about these all world athletes, they also have to worry about their families who will be quarantining with them.

Example: Mike Conley's wife is pregnant, what if he had gotten CV19 from Gobert? You can say, his wife can stay home, but would he want to be away for that time frame. These guys get payed a lot, but they aren't robots.  They are the ones to determine how much risk they are willing to take.

They will have the ability to test. They will have doctors, staff etc. I cant think of any other business currently in operation that are testing every single employee for Covid-19, not even hospitals are doing that. And unlike most businesses, the NBA won't have the worry and burden of untested random people coming to and fro. If this isn't safe, then I don't know what is. The "safety" bar being set for sports leagues versus other business, it's like the Wright brothers compared to Apollo Nine.

[AHF]

35 minutes ago, bleachkit said:

I don't know the leagues exact finances, not going down that rabbit hole, but you seem to keep implying this is just a vacuous cash grab, playing out the string merely to meet television quotas, and not much else.

My thinking is, if we are going to do this, lets have compelling and interesting basketball. Let's be creative, NBA changed things up with the all Star game. Why not try something with the end of the season for non playoff teams? They made the hurculean effort to come back after all. By the time July rolls around, the voices pleading "it's just too risky" will no longer be drowning everyone else out. 

The NBA is here to make money.  That is the driver for returning to play right now.  Doesn't mean we can't have interesting basketball or that you can't enjoy it.