538 - Hawks Are Going All-In On Offense

[AHF]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-atlanta-hawks-are-going-all-in-on-offense/

Just quoting a couple of excerpts but the article is available to anyone who wants to read it:

Quote

All of a sudden, their roster has tilted more toward enhancing Young’s prodigious strengths than covering his clear blemishes. Gallinari and Bogdanović aren’t sieves, but they also aren’t the pieces a team would build a defense-first culture around. Given how much Atlanta spent on them, that says something

This is not to say the Hawks are ignoring defense entirely. Atlanta drafted Onyeka Okongwu (a mobile, shot-blocking big man), traded for Capela and signed reigning steal-rate leader Kris Dunn, along with Rajon Rondo, who rehabilitated his deteriorating reputation (including his status as a defender) inside the bubble. New faces Tony Snell and Solomon Hill are solid corks when deployed with caution.

The Hawks’ turnaround starts with outside shooting, a definite concern heading into the year. Atlanta was the NBA’s least accurate 3-point shooting team last season, so Bogdanović and Gallinari are an immediate stimulus package. In 2019-20, only eight players made over 40 percent of their threes while averaging at least five attempts per game. These two made the list. Each is one of the better stand-still 3-point shooters in the world, but Gallinari’s size has allowed him to work as a devastating pick-and-pop threat, too. According to Second Spectrum, the Oklahoma City Thunder averaged 1.24 points per possession, good for the 93rd percentile,² whenever Gallinari popped after setting a ball screen. It’s here where Gallo is a natural complement to Young, who already has a fruitful partnership with Collins (who quietly shot 42.5 percent on catch-and-shoot threes last season) but will appreciate the upgrade over Jabari Parker and the now-retired Vince Carter.

 

The Hawks no longer have meaningful cap space, nor do they have a realistic opportunity to select another high lottery pick soon. They have placed themselves on a very specific track, betting on offensive improvement that should yield a playoff appearance. But then what? As things currently stand, unless Hunter, Reddish, Okongwu and Collins become above-average, all-around defenders who can help electrify Atlanta’s offense, pairing Young with a similarly aged co-pilot once he reaches his prime could be tricky.

But these are problems for another day. Right now, the Hawks’ offense should be enough to carry them into the playoffs. It’s full of shooting, playmaking, lob threats, experience and intelligence. A top-10 ranking should be in the cards, and they may even flirt with a top-3 offensive rating in the Eastern Conference. Soon enough, the question of whether this team can reach the playoffs will be replaced by how compelling they look when they get there.

 

[gurpilo]

Hahaha, they got the wrong Bogdanovic stats, Bogdan shot 37% from 3 last year. Other than that I think the statements are correct but they undervalue the impact on defense from Hunter, Reddish, Capela, Rondo, Dunn... and also Bogdanovic, he is not a bad defender.

[AHF]

8 minutes ago, gurpilo said:

Hahaha, they got the wrong Bogdanovic stats, Bogdan shot 37% from 3 last year. Other than that I think the statements are correct but they undervalue the impact on defense from Hunter, Reddish, Capela, Rondo, Dunn... and also Bogdanovic, he is not a bad defender.

That is strange.  Here is the info on the link they have but it just looks to be wrong:

[JayBirdHawk]

I get it. We spent the bulk of our FA dollars on offense.  But they aren't giving enough credit to the defense we added before the draft, at the draft, during FA and the glaring omission is on the coaching bench.

[Peoriabird]

You don't need 5 nba all defense team starters in your line up to play good defense.  These guys are some times extreme with their views

[warcore]

My only explanation for that chart is that it's possibly only accounting the games in which those players shot at least 5 attempts. 

[High5]

3 hours ago, AHF said:

That is strange.  Here is the info on the link they have but it just looks to be wrong:

Those are catch and shoot percentages. Guess they just forgot to mention that distinction.

[hawkzlova123]

Our preseason games will be fun. I'm excited for our 2nd unit

Rondo Gallo hunter oneyka huerter is basically a starting five

[Atlantaholic]

16 hours ago, gurpilo said:

Hahaha, they got the wrong Bogdanovic stats, Bogdan shot 37% from 3 last year. Other than that I think the statements are correct but they undervalue the impact on defense from Hunter, Reddish, Capela, Rondo, Dunn... and also Bogdanovic, he is not a bad defender.

Gallo is not "bad" either. He isn't what you would call a lockdown defender by any stretch but he gives effort, is a huge body and has good lateral movement for someone his size.  Honestly, I've seen a lot of takes where people are making this conclusion about us going offense but really every single pickup has been an improvement on the defensive end as much as on the offensive side. We have spent the last three lottery picks on players who are viewed as defenders more than offensive players (Reddish is seen as a two-way but you get what I mean).

[AHF]

12 hours ago, High5 said:

Those are catch and shoot percentages. Guess they just forgot to mention that distinction.

Even getting it wrong, I'm excited about having elite catch and shoot guys with the league leading double teams that Trae has seen to date!

[JeffS17]

If we can get our team to just an average-level NBA defense, we will be winning a lot of games this year.  The interesting dichotomy is guys are writing about how we are all-in on offense while we are doing nothing but focusing on the defensive end in practice and we hired an assistant coach with a defense-first reputation.  This year should be a fun one.

[macdaddy]

Dunn, Rondo, Cam, Hunter, Snell, Hill, Capela, are all good to excellent defenders who are rotation players in the NBA.  All pretty close to their prime.  Except maybe Rondo.

[gurpilo]

hace 2 horas, macdaddy dijo:

Dunn, Rondo, Cam, Hunter, Snell, Hill, Capela, are all good to excellent defenders who are rotation players in the NBA.  All pretty close to their prime.  Except maybe Rondo.

By any metric you can look at Cam and Hunter were bad defenders last season. Hopefully they become average this season. Wing is our worst defensive position with Bogi, Huerter,  Cam and Hunter.

Have they shown promise? Yes, have they put it all together? Not yet.