Hawks vs the Eastern Conference contenders (on paper anyway).

[thecampster]

35 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

PER? Who still uses PER? PER is implicitly bias to players to play like JC, Whiteside, and Enes Kanter.

JC is a million times better than Klay Thompson by the PER

It's very fair and accurate when used to compare at positions.

[Atlantaholic]

34 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

His offensive value is primarily based on rebounding, rim running, lob threat, smart play with movement, and excellent speed, screener and with very good size for position. He has offensive value. He's just an excellent defender though not elite. 

I'm not saying he is uselss on offense, but he isn't anything special. Defensively he stands out a lot more. 

[AHF]

2 hours ago, thecampster said:

It's very fair and accurate when used to compare at positions.

Yeah, it isn't the greatest metric but the systemic disparities are much more material when comparing people at different positions like PGs vs Cs.  When comparing at the same position, I'd say the biggest limitation is around its failure to capture and reflect defensive contributions (or liabilities).  JC routinely outproduces (from a counting # and scoring efficiency perspective) his opponents at PF.  He scores 150% as many points, he does so with 100 points higher efg%, he outrebounds them and out blocks them.  Comparing him to other PFs doesn't do anyone any big injustice (again except for PER's failure to capture defense).

[hawkzlova123]

Obviously we can hang with anyone

I'm super excited, the season can't start fast enough

Like hurry uppppppppp

[gurpilo]

I cannot agree with the comparison with BKN. Bogdanovic is not better than Levert and Hunter is not better than Harris. Both are real good players and even if the difference is slim, BKN has a slight advantage there. Also in the C comparison is Capela vs Jordan and there the difference is slim.

[NBASupes]

5 hours ago, thecampster said:

It's very fair and accurate when used to compare at positions.

Not at all. It's the the main analytic that died due to analytics boon with general NBA fans.

[NBASupes]

23 minutes ago, gurpilo said:

I cannot agree with the comparison with BKN. Bogdanovic is not better than Levert and Hunter is not better than Harris. Both are real good players and even if the difference is slim, BKN has a slight advantage there. Also in the C comparison is Capela vs Jordan and there the difference is slim.

Hunter is a strange case. From what we seen this preseason, he's better. From what we seen last year, lol, Harris by a mile.

It will be fun to see how their players adjust to their new roles on both teams.

Edited December 17, 2020 by NBASupes

[JayBirdHawk]

45 minutes ago, gurpilo said:

I cannot agree with the comparison with BKN. Bogdanovic is not better than Levert and Hunter is not better than Harris. Both are real good players and even if the difference is slim, BKN has a slight advantage there. Also in the C comparison is Capela vs Jordan and there the difference is slim.

The one thing with Levert is he can't stay healthy, he's already nicked up.

 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

14 hours ago, AHF said:

I can't disagree with too many of the individual assessments but think that the young age and inexperience of our players means that the sum of the parts is more than the collective team.  The other note I'd say is that Durant, Embiid, Butler, and Giannis are projected to have a significantly bigger impact than any individual Hawk and it would be a mistake not to recognize that the biggest stars tend to determine the success of their teams moreso than the collective talent.

For example the Bulls' third championship squad in 1992-93 and compare them to the Cavs:

BJ Armstrong v Mark Price (big advantage CLE)

Michael Jordan v Craig Ehlo (big advantage CHI)

Scottie Pippen v Mike Sanders (big advantage CHI)

Horace Grant v Larry Nance (advantage CLE)

Bill Cartwright (35 year old) v Brad Daughtery (big advantage CLE)

Bench:  Scott Williams, Stacey King, John Paxson, Rodney McCray v Terrell Brandon, Hot Rod Williams, Gerald Wilkins, Danny Ferry (adv CLE) 

On paper Cleveland looks like arguably the better team but when you look at the total package on the floor it isn't particularly close.  Bulls swept the Cavs 4-0.

In short, until our guys mature some more and we come together as a team I think the sum of our parts will look better on paper than our actual results.

 

Excellent post.

 

The big thing about the NBA ( to me ), are two things.

 

1) Do you have personnel on your team that can slow down the opposing teams best 3 players?

2) Can the opposing team slow down your top 3 players?

 

Milwaukee is possibly an even better defensive team this year, than last year.   Miami, with Butler and Bam, have two elite defenders at their perspective positions.   The Sixers are a HUGE team, and present gross mismatches to other teams ( when they play to their strengths ).  And Brooklyn ( potentially ) have 2 elite offensive players, and 2 more players on that team ( Levert and Dinwiddie ) who can go for 20 points at any given moment.

 

The Hawks have nice offensive balance.  But for us to even compete with the 4 teams listed + Boston, we're going to have to prove that we're much more improved defensively.

[NBASupes]

People will be surprised about us the most on defense I believe. Everyone is expecting great offense but the defense is what we have that can be special. 

[gurpilo]

hace 7 horas, NBASupes dijo:

Hunter is a strange case. From what we seen this preseason, he's better. From what we seen last year, lol, Harris by a mile.

It will be fun to see how their players adjust to their new roles on both teams.

I cannot make a judgment for 2 preseason games, make no sense for me. Today Harris is better than Hunter by a mile, we are not talking about expectations. And Levert is at least as good as Bogi.

[gurpilo]

hace 7 horas, JayBirdHawk dijo:

The one thing with Levert is he can't stay healthy, he's already nicked up.

 

That is true but when he is healthy he is at least as good as Bogi.

[thecampster]

12 hours ago, gurpilo said:

I cannot agree with the comparison with BKN. Bogdanovic is not better than Levert and Hunter is not better than Harris. Both are real good players and even if the difference is slim, BKN has a slight advantage there. Also in the C comparison is Capela vs Jordan and there the difference is slim.

It would be fair to say I was projecting a good bit on LeVert and Hunter.  Brooklyn needed someone to take shots last year and LeVert took those shots. That is going to fall off this year. 

Last year, Hunter was heavily penalized based on the personnel on the floor with him most of the time.

 

When you look at LeVert's stats his first 3 years in the league, it doesn't pan out how you're stating. The best thing I can do is compare LeVert's career averages to Hunter's 1 year as his stats from last year are pure brute force and will fall off (except probably shooting %).

 LeVert (career) - 12.7 ppg / 3.7 RPG / 3.6 APG/  1.9 TO  eFG% .491

Hunter (Rookie) - 12.3 ppg / 4.5 RPG / 1.8 APG / 1.6 TO eFG% .489

 

I think we can agree Hunter is a better man defender. We are looking at the 4 year stats of a player which are pretty much equal to a rookie's stats. If you want to compare rookie campaigns its not even close. If you want to compare last year, its unfair because LeVert was encouraged to take as many shots as possible. He is a 4 year older player and nearing his peak. Many of Hunter's individual stats are affected by the personnel on the floor the first half of the season and yet the numbers aren't that different (minus 6ppg based on usage). I'm projecting Hunter as better than LeVert this year and only playing the games will prove me wrong here.

[thecampster]

Perhaps a good way to look at Hunter is to look at how he played the last 15 games of the season (JC back, Dedmon in..teague here...etc). 12.5 ppg/ 7.1 rpg/1.6apg/  42% from 3 and 82.1% from the Free throw line. He went for 15+ 6 times, 20+ twice. there was a maturity that took over as the season progressed and his supporting cast improved. Again, I'm projecting Hunter to be better than LeVert this year given LeVert won't be taking 16 shots per game this year. Hunter averaged less than 11.

 

[Gray Mule]

How do we figure team defense?

After several games, you average the points your opponents scored against you.  To me, this works.  Sometimes, a player just goes off.  Every shot falls.  He can't miss.  But, this doesn't happen every game.  Everything evens out after a few games.

Question:  How many points, on average, did our opponents score on the Hawks in the last two or three seasons?  If they are to improve their defense, it stands to reason that this number must go down.

[thecampster]

20 minutes ago, Gray Mule said:

How do we figure team defense?

After several games, you average the points your opponents scored against you.  To me, this works.  Sometimes, a player just goes off.  Every shot falls.  He can't miss.  But, this doesn't happen every game.  Everything evens out after a few games.

Question:  How many points, on average, did our opponents score on the Hawks in the last two or three seasons?  If they are to improve their defense, it stands to reason that this number must go down.

The only stickler to that is pace. When games are played at a higher pace (due to personnel or scheme), scoring goes up. Defense is a weird all encompassing stat because your own team turnovers, lead to easy buckets. Ball security leads to better team defense numbers....its very hard to quantify.

[Gray Mule]

36 minutes ago, thecampster said:

The only stickler to that is pace. When games are played at a higher pace (due to personnel or scheme), scoring goes up. Defense is a weird all encompassing stat because your own team turnovers, lead to easy buckets. Ball security leads to better team defense numbers....its very hard to quantify.

PACE:  Most of the time a team will generally play at the same pace, game after game.  True, the faster the pace, the more likely turnovers happen.  

[gurpilo]

hace 3 horas, thecampster dijo:

It would be fair to say I was projecting a good bit on LeVert and Hunter.  Brooklyn needed someone to take shots last year and LeVert took those shots. That is going to fall off this year. 

Last year, Hunter was heavily penalized based on the personnel on the floor with him most of the time.

 

When you look at LeVert's stats his first 3 years in the league, it doesn't pan out how you're stating. The best thing I can do is compare LeVert's career averages to Hunter's 1 year as his stats from last year are pure brute force and will fall off (except probably shooting %).

 LeVert (career) - 12.7 ppg / 3.7 RPG / 3.6 APG/  1.9 TO  eFG% .491

Hunter (Rookie) - 12.3 ppg / 4.5 RPG / 1.8 APG / 1.6 TO eFG% .489

 

I think we can agree Hunter is a better man defender. We are looking at the 4 year stats of a player which are pretty much equal to a rookie's stats. If you want to compare rookie campaigns its not even close. If you want to compare last year, its unfair because LeVert was encouraged to take as many shots as possible. He is a 4 year older player and nearing his peak. Many of Hunter's individual stats are affected by the personnel on the floor the first half of the season and yet the numbers aren't that different (minus 6ppg based on usage). I'm projecting Hunter as better than LeVert this year and only playing the games will prove me wrong here.

No, it is not fair. Levert is only 26 years old, he has been improving every season and his per-36 minutes show much better production than Hunter every season, not only last season. You are comparing production on 26 minutes vs 32 on Hunter. Per 36 minutes last season Levert produced 22ppg vs 13ppg on Hunter, season before was 18ppg.

Sometimes we mix expectations with reality, I understand the expectations and promise on Hunter but today Levert is better, at the end of the season hopefully not.

Come on, some of you play fantasy NBA, there is a reason why Levert gets drafted and Hunter not, lol.

[REHawksFan]

I'm a fan of blind comparisons because it takes some of the bias and subjectivity out of the analysis.  Here's a little chart I put together comparing two teams (one is the Hawks obviously) with previous season stats.  I thought this might be a fun exercise to go through. We can use it to project which team looks to be better and by how much.  I did it on a player by player basis for the 2-deep.  What do y'all think?  

The stats are per 100 possessions btw.  

The thing that jumps off the page to me when I look at this chart....is how much the Hawks need to get more from the wings in order to really compete and compare favorably to this other team.  

 

 

 

 

 

[NBASupes]

1 hour ago, REHawksFan said:

I'm a fan of blind comparisons because it takes some of the bias and subjectivity out of the analysis.  Here's a little chart I put together comparing two teams (one is the Hawks obviously) with previous season stats.  I thought this might be a fun exercise to go through. We can use it to project which team looks to be better and by how much.  I did it on a player by player basis for the 2-deep.  What do y'all think?  

The stats are per 100 possessions btw.  

The thing that jumps off the page to me when I look at this chart....is how much the Hawks need to get more from the wings in order to really compete and compare favorably to this other team.  

 

 

 

 

 

I already know the one with the extremely low wing metrics from last year is the Hawks. Hunter and Reddish were abysmal when it came to advanced metrics. The only positive is Hunter was better at team metrics and Reddish was a near positive in impact metrics. 

Then again I know why Campster didn't want to use them. Because anyone can see with these first two preseason games that our rookies are much better than expected.