Snell will be squeezed out of minutes upon DAH & Cam's return for this reason

[JayBirdHawk]

28 minutes ago, Buzzard said:

My head has been spinning with all the Collins rumors to Minnesota and Boston. I just don't see anything out there that including Snell would be helpful for our backup small forward spot.

I just posted another, lol in the Collins thread.  I don't see a viable trade from Minny and Boston that says - this is what we needed for our playoff push.

[terrell]

31 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I just posted another, lol in the Collins thread.  I don't see a viable trade from Minny and Boston that says - this is what we needed for our playoff push.

Robert Williams, Peyton Pritchard, and a 1st? lol

[JayBirdHawk]

8 minutes ago, terrell said:

Robert Williams, Peyton Pritchard, and a 1st? lol

You'd have to explain it to me.

[macdaddy]

With injuries to Cam and Hunter we'd be out there trying to swing a deal right now for a guy like Snell if Travis hadn't already done it in the offseason.   Can't imagine us offloading him without a serious wing replacement coming back our way.

[terrell]

20 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

You'd have to explain it to me.

Trae/Rondo/Pritchard(allows us to rest Rondo on back to backs or wtvr. Save him for the Playoffs..lol)

Huerter/Bogi/Cam

Hunter/Snell/Cam

Gallo/Knight/Solo

Capela/Williams(he's avg 7 points. 6 reb. 1 assist..1 steal..2 blocks  in 16 min..72% fg)/Okungwu

Still a Deep squad...

That's if you believe Gallo/Knight/Solo can hold down the PF spot.

And we dont lose Collins for nothing..lol

 

 

Edited March 15, 2021 by terrell

[sturt]

To no one in particular...

The title of the thread presumes the return of the two young wings who were considered either a starter (Hunter) or part-time starter (Reddish) at the beginning of the season, and no injuries to the other two who were either a starter (Bogdanovich) or part-time starter (Huerter)... so, 4 deep at wing.

 

If Shams' report is confirmed as accurate (presumably that should happen soon), then indeed, it debunks/eliminates a pivotal premise of the thread--ie, that it can't be anticipated that the 5th wing will receive any minutes upon their return and the reason for that is that he is, still, the 5th best option (unless somehow he confounds history, and suddenly becomes adequate-enough on the defensive end... or suddenly becomes Trae-like on the offensive end, dominating games and always a threat to put 30-50 points on the scoreboard on a given night).

 

But... had it not been the case that Shams reported Reddish will be out 4-6 weeks...  the logic was stout and remains stout had Cam's outlook had been something more like the one more week that many of us has presumed:

We don't have an adequate big behind Capela. The 5th wing, for all the sweetness of his game winner in Tampa the other night, is simply not going to have the floor time to be routinely a player who makes anything close to the significant impact on a given game that an adequate back-up big would have. There are only so many minutes in a game, and as long as your lead horses aren't past the exhaustion point, those are the horses that are most likely to get you to the desired result--which is why a game night rotation for any given team's roster normally is only 8-10 players.

Now, it's true that our expectations for 2020-21 really aren't that high anyhow. So, there's something to be said for leaving things as-is, though maybe still eventually cutting the 4th PG upon Dunn's anticipated return, in favor of some free agent big like a John Henson or Noah Vonleh. No need, necessarily, to go all out as-if a first round playoff series victory is critical.

The premise of the thread, though, assumed we are going all out. And again, if that were the case, then it would have made sense to reallocate the $12-ish million to someone who will naturally get some minutes that the 5th wing won't get, and can be a more accomplished, higher caliber, playoff-ball enforcer big.

 

[REHawksFan]

I've still not seen anything persuasive that says Cam is clearly ahead of Snell in the pecking order in the near term. Over the long term, sure. But the goal is and has always been to make the playoffs.  Just because it was assumed (based on the last half of last year) that Cam would be a part time starter or play a huge role at the beginning of the season, it does not necessarily follow that that is still the case today when by nearly every metric he has struggled mightily. 

Snell's consistent shooting from distance has value. It's probably not as much as we all think considering his relatively small volume per game, but he's still the highest % player on the team. He's a guy opponents have to account for as Toronto learned the hard way.  That's WAY more the case for him than for Bogie or Cam and sometimes more the case for him than Kevin (exceptions are when Kevin is actually on since he's a streaky shooter).  

My guess is he will continue to see around 20-24 min/gm even when Hunter comes back. 

And BTW, I'm not saying he shouldn't be traded for a more useful player.  I'm more saying I don't think the Hawks WILL trade him and therefore I think he will continue to play a part and not really lose minutes. 

 

[sturt]

Suddenly, no one wants to keep Tony Snell more than I do... hehe... we're too alike...

 

 

[JayBirdHawk]

 

Quote

Trae clearly trusts Snell late in games, and Snell has merited it. To be honest, the 29-year-old is having one of the most remarkable shooting seasons in NBA history. While it is not a high volume of attempts, Snell leads the NBA in three-point percentage at 56.8 percent. Kyle Korver set the NBA record with Utah in 2009-10 when he made 53.6 percent.  

A career 39 percent three-point shooter, Snell has always been an excellent shooter, but what he is doing this season is without precedent. 

As spicy as his shooting is, Snell sees time on the court for what he can do defensively. Standing at 6-foot-6 with a nearly 7-foot wingspan, Snell uses his size and savvy to take on some of the Hawks' most difficult defensive assignments. When he is off the ball, he positions himself well to lend help and deny passing lanes, and when he rotates to the rim, you might mistake him for an interior big man with how well he protects the paint. 

These are not, perhaps, the most interesting or fascinating things that happen on a basketball court, but they do impact winning, and they do set a strong example for the younger Hawks. To wit: literally every person interviewed for this story used the word "pro" unprompted when describing Snell. 

"He's a great pro. He works every day and brings a lot of energy and enthusiasm every day. He's always very positive for everybody. He just does the little things that a lot of times don't show up in the stat sheet, but he does all of the little things that are required to win the game." 

 "He always has a smile on his face. He's the true definition of a pro. He comes in, he gets his work in, he's always on time."

 

"He doesn't say too much, but he always speaks in the right moments and always gives us good knowledge when he sees it," Trae said. "It's good having a vet like him on our team." 

 

[RedDawg#8]

9 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

 

Snell has earned his place in the rotation. Even when Hunter returns, a Rondo-Bogi-Snell-Gallo-(center) second unit is going to be very potent.

[sturt]

To no one in particular, except maybe Chouinard...

The dogged determination to keep pushing, pushing, pushing this narrative that through all these seasons with all these teams under all these coaches, Snell somehow is even some average defensive force is one thing....

But no, they go so far as propagandize Snell as a superior defensive force (!).

Never mind that in every stop of his career, the numbers show that his body measurements and body frame belies his actual performance/outcomes.

For Snell to have any worse numbers, he almost would have to be facing a nightly rotation of Michael Jordan, Larry Bird, Dr. J, James Worthy, and Nique.

Speaks to the power of media repetition, or at least the perceived power.

That's not to say I necessarily believe Schlenk should trade him... maybe, maybe not, depends on what the secret goal for 2020-21 actually is...

But it is to say that media... and fans... have gone so completely overboard that it's become silly.

[Thomas]

Nate did not necessarily want the HC gig in the first place and since he seems so very no nonsense believe Cam has to show very well on both ends to shut down Snell's gun so to speak. As is Cam will have a place as a stopper from the get go.

[RedDawg#8]

4 hours ago, sturt said:

To no one in particular, except maybe Chouinard...

The dogged determination to keep pushing, pushing, pushing this narrative that through all these seasons with all these teams under all these coaches, Snell somehow is even some average defensive force is one thing....

But no, they go so far as propagandize Snell as a superior defensive force (!).

Never mind that in every stop of his career, the numbers show that his body measurements and body frame belies his actual performance/outcomes.

For Snell to have any worse numbers, he almost would have to be facing a nightly rotation of Michael Jordan, Larry Bird, Dr. J, James Worthy, and Nique.

Speaks to the power of media repetition, or at least the perceived power.

That's not to say I necessarily believe Schlenk should trade him... maybe, maybe not, depends on what the secret goal for 2020-21 actually is...

But it is to say that media... and fans... have gone so completely overboard that it's become silly.

Hey, it is what it is. He has been taking on the toughest matchups lately and our defense as a whole has been improving with him in the lineup. Let the past be the past, this is a different team under Nate.

[JayBirdHawk]

26 minutes ago, RedDawg#8 said:

Hey, it is what it is. He has been taking on the toughest matchups lately and our defense as a whole has been improving with him in the lineup. Let the past be the past, this is a different team under Nate.

We're not asking Snell to be a defensive stopper, just play sound defense, stay in front of his man, make it tough on his opponent (even if they score) be in the right place on team defense and talk on defense with and to the young players, he's not going to be a steals and blocks guy, just keep himself between his man on the basket  - he's done all that!

[sturt]

Just a general note...

No one, and I mean no one, should take very seriously the assertion I just made in the BogBog thread...

I would not be the kind of person to contend that one can take results of the last several games and extract from the positive outcomes that the positive outcomes somehow outweigh and eclipse literally thousands upon thousands of minutes of individuals' minutes accumulated with different teams with different rosters playing for different coaches.

No. What we know about BogBog is not terribly altered by recent games.

It's more interesting, maybe even a "fun fact" qualifier... but those games are not meaningful on their own.

In assessing him, then, we... or at least some of us comfortable with the basic concept of critical thought... want to assess him for what truly is good and what is bad.

No Pollyanna on this side of the internet... maybe others, not here.

And yes, the principle applies to assessing BogBog's contributions, but not just to BogBog's, of course... make your own applications... but for the record, no, I didn't randomly post this just anywhere.

[sturt]

 

Acknowledged up front, this is cherry picking, in that you can probably find a series of images just like this for most. But in this case, it was too easy to find. And so, in this case, the ease of finding images testifies/supports what the numbers tell those who desire to assess both good and bad.

(Needless to say, that is some subset of Hawks fans.)

[AHF]

On 3/20/2021 at 2:44 PM, sturt said:

To no one in particular, except maybe Chouinard...

The dogged determination to keep pushing, pushing, pushing this narrative that through all these seasons with all these teams under all these coaches, Snell somehow is even some average defensive force is one thing....

But no, they go so far as propagandize Snell as a superior defensive force (!).

Never mind that in every stop of his career, the numbers show that his body measurements and body frame belies his actual performance/outcomes.

For Snell to have any worse numbers, he almost would have to be facing a nightly rotation of Michael Jordan, Larry Bird, Dr. J, James Worthy, and Nique.

Speaks to the power of media repetition, or at least the perceived power.

That's not to say I necessarily believe Schlenk should trade him... maybe, maybe not, depends on what the secret goal for 2020-21 actually is...

But it is to say that media... and fans... have gone so completely overboard that it's become silly.

He isn't a superior defensive force.  We are 3.5 points better on defense, however, when he is on the court than we are when he is off the court.  

http://www.82games.com/2021/20ATL9.HTM#onoff

He is best in a reserve role coming off the bench.  He gives you some fine defense and excellent low volume 3pt shooting.  That is it but that is a fine piece among the back end of your rotation.

Anyone trying to play him off as an All-Defense contender or something is reaching too far.

[sturt]

To no one in particular...

82games does a great job of showing on/off stats as well as the top 20 5-man rotations for a given player.

On/off is a reflection of a couple of things, of course. One is that it gives insight into any delta between the player and his most typical substitute, and the other... when one incorporates the accounting of what 5-man groups he's been part of... is that it gives insight into what other players surrounded him when he was on the floor, which also would seem salient.

To wit... to what degree does the player benefit from other players at his position being worse than he is? To what degree does the player benefit from the 5-man groups he primarily plays beside?

And most compelling, perhaps... why do rating numbers consistently over multiple seasons, multiple other players played beside, multiple other coaches... somehow tell us less about a player than a simple on/off for a single season?

I'm cautious not to push too hard, because I'm fully cognizant of my place here. So that's as much as I plan to say publicly.

[AHF]

2 minutes ago, sturt said:

To no one in particular...

82games does a great job of showing on/off stats as well as the top 20 5-man rotations for a given player.

On/off is a reflection of a couple of things, of course. One is that it gives insight into any delta between the player and his most typical substitute, and the other... when one incorporates the accounting of what 5-man groups he's been part of... is that it gives insight into what other players surrounded him when he was on the floor, which also would seem salient.

To wit... to what degree does the player benefit from other players at his position being worse than he is? To what degree does the player benefit from the 5-man groups he primarily plays beside?

And most compelling, perhaps... why do rating numbers consistently over multiple seasons, multiple other players played beside, multiple other coaches... somehow tell us less about a player than a simple on/off for a single season?

I'm cautious not to push too hard, because I'm fully cognizant of my place here. So that's as much as I plan to say publicly.

I think Snell has been matched above his paygrade pretty consistently for most of his career.  Detroit assigned him to the best opposing wing and he just isn't good enough to succeed in those matchups but (echoing your comment about on/off) coaches determined he was better than their other options.  And given that he played on teams with guys like Luke Kennard and Langston Galloway you can understand why he was given those responsibilities.  He has been used in that role of 'defensive stopper' when he is more pedestrian than that.  

You aren't wrong about his DRtg numbers - they are consistently terrible.  He isn't so bad in other defensive numbers.  For example, he scores better with some other ratings like DWS or DBPM where he becomes more of a middle of the pack type of player. 

2020-21:  Snell ranks last on the team in DRtg this season but 8th of 16 in DBPM and middle of the pack in DW/48

2019-20: tied for 18th in DRtg and was 7th of 22 in DBPM and 9th of 22 in DWS

2018-19: 21st of 24 in DRtg and was 13th of 24 in DBPM and 7th of 24 in DWS

2017-18: 23rd of 24 in DRtg and 12th of 24 in DBPM and 7th of 24 in DWS

[sturt]

If there was ever any doubt whether there is correlation between eyeballing Snell's defensive performance and eyeballing his DRtg numbers, just go watch that highlight reel from the Suns game.

Torched, then torched some more. When he's not too far away from the shooter to have any effect, he's closing out and over-committing and watching the other guy rush right past him to the basket. Can't say it enough--he seems to have the body/build of so many decent-to-very-good wing defenders, but his lateral movement and his instincts are super sucky.