KEEPERS !!

[RedDawg#8]

1 hour ago, Peoriabird said:

He is an older shorter less athletic Kevin Huerter.  Except Huerter has picked up his defense.

He is stronger and a better ball handler. Also, his aggressiveness/confidence never fades like Kev. 

[JayBirdHawk]

1 hour ago, Peoriabird said:

He is an older shorter less athletic Kevin Huerter.  Except Huerter has picked up his defense.

...and if Kevin can morph more into Bogi's offensive repertoire, aggressive and confidence then it makes it easier to move on from Bogi at the end of next season. That is my hope.

[Peoriabird]

2 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

...and if Kevin can morph more into Bogi's offensive repertoire, aggressive and confidence then it makes it easier to move on from Bogi at the end of next season. That is my hope.

Their career numbers are almost Identical

[RedDawg#8]

1 hour ago, Peoriabird said:

Their career numbers are almost Identical

Almost, except Bogi shoots better and scores more.

[Peoriabird]

6 minutes ago, RedDawg#8 said:

Almost, except Bogi shoots better and scores more.

Cause Bogi is 28 and Huerter is 22

[thecampster]

On 7/10/2021 at 4:00 PM, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

Dunn has a player option ( that he probably won't use )

 

 

I'm leaning toward he might.  $5 million is much more than the minimum and based on his A) shooting B) rust when he came back C) length of his layoff D) the low cap this year, he might decide taking a surefire $5 million is better than trying his luck.

 

If I was him, in this market, I'd take the $5 million, take my bench time to work on my shooting and capitalize next year. I think it depends on his 1 on 1 meetings with Nate.

Edited July 12, 2021 by thecampster

[AHF]

Since we are talking a lot about Bogi (who @TheNorthCydeRises has on his keeper list for next season), let's look at his impact on winning and losing from a slightly different perspective.  Northcyde did a nice job showing that the team wins a bit more when Bogi shoots well but wins even when he doesn't.  Peo has suggested that this indicates that Bogi has no impact on our winning and losing since we win whether he hits a high % of 3's or not.  But it doesn't look at what impact his gravity/spacing, passing and defense has on the overall team.  In other words, some guys positively affect the game enough even when they aren't hot that they make you more likely to win.  Is Bogi that kind of player?  Well, let's take a look at the record with Bogi on the floor and without Bogi.

Hawks Without Bogi

11 wins

17 losses

39% winning%

Full Season Finish At Our Winning % Without Bogi:  12th Seed in the East; 13th Seed in the West

 

Hawks With Bogi

30 wins

14 losses

68% winning %

Full Season Finish At Our Winning % With Bogi:  Tied for 1st Seed in the East; 3rd Seed in the West

 

So I'm going to say that a case can be made that Bogi positively impacted the team's performance regardless of his shooting % in a particular game.  We had a variety of factors that affected our winning %s this season and so looking at this in pure isolation seems just as appropriate or inappropriate as looking at any other factor by itself and would, in my view, benefit from a fuller context. 

But this difference is HUGE.  Just enormous.  And 28 and 54 game samples are pretty significant numbers in terms of looking at trends within a single season.  They certainly aren't subject to the kind of swing you see from only looking at a week or two worth of games.  

 

So to circle back to the subject of this thread, Bogi is a no-brainer keeper for me for next season with the same caveat I have that anyone is movable in the right deal.  

[Peoriabird]

5 hours ago, AHF said:

Since we are talking a lot about Bogi (who @TheNorthCydeRises has on his keeper list for next season), let's look at his impact on winning and losing from a slightly different perspective.  Northcyde did a nice job showing that the team wins a bit more when Bogi shoots well but wins even when he doesn't.  Peo has suggested that this indicates that Bogi has no impact on our winning and losing since we win whether he hits a high % of 3's or not.  But it doesn't look at what impact his gravity/spacing, passing and defense has on the overall team.  In other words, some guys positively affect the game enough even when they aren't hot that they make you more likely to win.  Is Bogi that kind of player?  Well, let's take a look at the record with Bogi on the floor and without Bogi.

Hawks Without Bogi

11 wins

17 losses

39% winning%

Full Season Finish At Our Winning % Without Bogi:  12th Seed in the East; 13th Seed in the West

 

Hawks With Bogi

30 wins

14 losses

68% winning %

Full Season Finish At Our Winning % With Bogi:  Tied for 1st Seed in the East; 3rd Seed in the West

 

 

Obviously you are counting LP era losses in your calculation.

[AHF]

7 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Obviously you are counting LP era losses in your calculation.

Under Nate (i.e., after March 1), the Hawks won:

74% of the time with Bogi

33% of the time without Bogi

If you are going to argue that Nate didn't win a lot of games because of Bogi's great play it won't surprise me at all despite having no evidence of that whatsoever and every metric saying that Bogi beasted during Nate's part of the season where he was head coach.

I haven't seen a single stat that suggests the Hawks were close to as good without Bogi on the floor as they were with him playing.  They were even better with him playing under LP when he was hurt and struggling.

[Peoriabird]

Just now, AHF said:

Under Nate (i.e., after March 1), the Hawks won:

74% of the time with Bogi

33% of the time without Bogi

Well there you have it!  Bogi should be the highest paid player on the team since he is responsible for all of these wins.  Who needs Hunter or Collins.  All we need is Bogdanovic

[AHF]

14 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Well there you have it!  Bogi should be the highest paid player on the team since he is responsible for all of these wins.  Who needs Hunter or Collins.  All we need is Bogdanovic

You said it.  That isn't my opinion (certainly not the extreme way you have put it here as you well know or should know that no player is solely responsible for all wins for a team - not even MJ). 

What is clear is that Bogi was a big part of why the team was so successful after Nate took over and Bogi came back and got healthy.  Not coincidently, these things happened at the same time.  In fact, I have credited and continue to credit Nate for making much better use of Bogi than LP did. 

Nate repeatedly made it clear that he viewed Bogi as a critical part of the team's success this season and I'd say he isn't wrong.  You may think he is stupid for having that view but I think his take is the right one.

https://soaringdownsouth.com/2021/04/12/atlanta-hawks-bogdan-bogdanovic-season-saviour/

Bogi was an important piece of the puzzle for this team.  Nothing more and nothing less.

[Peoriabird]

4 minutes ago, AHF said:

Bogi was an important piece of the puzzle for this team.  Nothing more and nothing less.

The Hawks probably won more games without Deandre Hunter so I guess Hunter isn't an important "piece to the puzzle" according to your metrics

[niremetal]

5 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

The Hawks probably won more games without Deandre Hunter so I guess Hunter isn't an important "piece to the puzzle" according to your metrics

Bogi's stats after McMillan named him a starter on March 26:

• 21.1 ppg
• 3.8 rpg
• 4.2 apg (vs 1.4 turnovers)
• 1.6 spa
• 50/49/90 shooting
• Hawks were 18-7 in the games he played (and 1-2 in the games he didn't, though that's not a large enough sample size to be meaningful)

Hunter was never healthy after McMillan took over, so that's a non-sequitur. I'd think that we would have been even more successful if he was healthy (as evidenced by the fact that we crushed the #4 seed in the East). It's nuts to argue that Bogi didn't ball out and was not a key part of the team's success down the stretch, which is I suppose why you're falling back on straw men and distractions to try to make your argument.

[AHF]

Just now, Peoriabird said:

The Hawks probably won more games without Deandre Hunter so I guess Hunter isn't an important "piece to the puzzle" according to your metrics

Depends what you mean.  I have no doubt that Hunter is an important piece for us going forward.   He absolutely wasn't an important part of our turnaround under Nate.  He barely played under Nate.

While Bogi played a significant number of games under both coaches, where I would focus on Hunter is on his time under LP* since he played almost his whole season (as limited as it was) under LP.  In that context, the Hawks won:

53% of the games under LP with Hunter

27% of the games under LP without Hunter

So by a similar analysis, you can see the Hawks were much better when Hunter played than when he didn't.  Again, this doesn't tell the full story but the gap is so large that with a 19 game sample I feel it is worth drawing some conclusions.

 

If you look at the full season, the Hawks won 54% of the time with Hunter and 58% without him which isn't much of a difference to begin with and should absolutely factor in the fact that almost all of his games were under LP.

 

*  (The Hawks won 60% of their games with Hunter under Nate which was less than Nate's overall win% but because this is a very limited sample size it would be impossible for Hunter to more closely match Nate's overall winning%.  I basically toss that small sample out. particularly when Hunter wasn't healthy enough to start 4 of those 5 games.  Way too small a sample size to draw conclusions and clearly not a statistically significant difference.)

 

[niremetal]

Also, re Bogi's D--people saying he's a poor defender are going based on I-don't-know-what. His advanced defensive stats all indicate that he was one of the better perimeter defenders on the team. His DRTG, DBPM, and DWS were actually all slightly better than Huerter's. He's not going to shut down Devin Booker, but neither is Huerter.

[RedDawg#8]

One leg Bogi left a bad taste in folks mouths I see.

He was not the same offensively or defensively while he was hurt. But when healthy, Bogi was a two way player and an absolute stud on offense. 

[RandomFan]

I applaud the patience of people in this thread that continue to try and talk sense to a broken clock: you are a far better person than I. 

Regarding Bogi's worth, our very own GM Schlenk put it eloquently just last week. 

-- 

On which Hawks player pulled off the biggest surprise this season:

“I think there are a lot of guys that improved this year, I really do. Obviously we just talked about (Okongwu) and the growth for a rookie coming in. I thought Kevin Huerter, from the start of the year to the end of the year, what he was able to do on the defensive side of the floor, for large stretches of the season being asked to guard the other team’s best player. I don’t think anyone ever thought of Kevin in that light, so a ton of growth there. But I think really and it’s not necessarily a young guy but a new guy to us, Bogdan, Bogi. Obviously I’ve been a fan of his. I remember watching him all the way back when he played at Fenerbahce all the time, but he’s even a better player than I thought. He’s just a really good basketball player, so I guess I would go with him, but like I said, we’ve got a bunch of guys step up and have good years for us.”

--

The guy they offered an $18m per year contract to was even better than Travis thought he was gonna be. 

But what does that bonehead know, right? It's not like he put together the team that went the farthest in its Atlanta histo...umm, wait. Carry on

Edited July 12, 2021 by RandomFan

[Gray Mule]

To me, the point that Peoriabird continues to try to make is, basketball is a team sport.  Team wins mean more than any one player.  

[AHF]

1 hour ago, Gray Mule said:

To me, the point that Peoriabird continues to try to make is, basketball is a team sport.  Team wins mean more than any one player.  

Nobody has claimed otherwise except (ironically) Peo himself in his exaggerated "responses" to data showing that Bogi's play contributed to our ability to win games this season.  From my end, the issue seems to be more around the issue of whether Bogi is an important part of the team.  Nobody is claiming that Bogi is the most important part of the team.  I don't even think there is a single poster who doesn't think that one or more of our younger wings has the long-term potential to surpass his play.  Just a discussion around whether he was an important part of the 2020-21 team and whether he has an important role on next year's team.

As a team sport, I do think he has an important role to play based on what we saw from him this season.

[Sothron]

I don't understand how anyone that watches basketball even on a casual level can't appreciate what Bogi brings to the team. He spaces, he passes and when he's not playing on one leg his defense is average to good. Yes, a healthy Bogi with his active hands and positional defense to try and funnel his man into a big is actually good.

So this whole let's dump Bogi is patently absurd. I want Cam to start over Bogi next season but that still leaves Bogi as the guard sixth man. My hope is that at some point Cam/Kevin make Bogi a trade asset but we're not there yet.