Power Rankings

[sillent]

https://www.nba.com/news/offseason-power-rankings-east-2021

Last Week: 0 ↓

2020-21 record: 41-31
Pace: 98.7 (22), OffRtg: 114.3 (9), DefRtg: 112.1 (18), NetRtg: +2.2 (11)

Key addition(s): Delon Wright
Key departure(s): Low expectations

Three numbers to know…

• The Hawks were the league’s second most improved team last season, both in regard to winning percentage (+0.271) and point differential per 100 possessions (+9.6), topped only by Golden State in both cases.

• The Hawks were the only team that ranked in the top five in both free throw percentage (81.2%, fifth) and free throw rate (27.8 attempts per 100 shots from the field, fourth). They outscored their opponents by 2.8 points per game, the league’s biggest differential, at the free throw line.

• Combining pick-and-roll ball-handler and roll-man possessions (via Synergy tracking), the Hawks scored just 0.87 points per possession on 33 possessions per game in the conference finals, down from 1.03 points per possession on 39 possessions per game through the first two rounds.

Key question: Is De’Andre Hunter a plus on both ends of the floor?

Hunter’s return from a long absence was brief (he played three regular season games and five playoff games before suffering a meniscus tear in his right knee), but it was very intriguing, especially on defense, where he played a critical role in slowing down Julius Randle. In 329 total minutes with Hunter, John Collins and Clint Capela on the floor together last season (regular season + playoffs), the Hawks allowed just 96.1 points per 100 possessions and outscored their opponents by 15.6 per 100.

More of those minutes would be nice, but Hunter obviously has to stay healthy. And if he can take a step forward offensively (a little more off the dribble, closer to 40% on catch-and-shoot 3s), the Hawks have a heck of a starting five. And if there aren’t enough minutes to go around on the perimeter, that’s a good problem to have.

 

I honestly don't think they did that bad..... My adjustments would be...

1 Nets 2 Bucks 3 Hawks 4 Heat 5 76ers?? 6 Pacers 7 Knicks

 8 Celtics 9 Wizards 10 Bulls 11 Hornets (All Playoff/Play In Potential) 12 Raptors 13 Cleveland 14 Pistons 15 Magic

The East is truly a Beast (nba overall) and the right tweaks can give a team a slight edge. I wouldn't doubt the power of depth and continuity though. That's why I have a team like the Pacers so high and the Bulls so low. 

The Hornets could definitely surprise and take one of those teams out of the playoffs/play in. It's all still up in the air though since the season has yet to begin. 

I wouldn't be surprised at all if we (Atlanta) took 1st or 2nd place in the conference. I know Trae studies the stats and I haven't done my research on 1st place teams winning it all. If the probabilities are high I wouldn't be surprised to see us go for it.

[marco102]

2 hours ago, sillent said:

https://www.nba.com/news/offseason-power-rankings-east-2021

Last Week: 0 ↓

2020-21 record: 41-31
Pace: 98.7 (22), OffRtg: 114.3 (9), DefRtg: 112.1 (18), NetRtg: +2.2 (11)

Key addition(s): Delon Wright
Key departure(s): Low expectations

Three numbers to know…

• The Hawks were the league’s second most improved team last season, both in regard to winning percentage (+0.271) and point differential per 100 possessions (+9.6), topped only by Golden State in both cases.

• The Hawks were the only team that ranked in the top five in both free throw percentage (81.2%, fifth) and free throw rate (27.8 attempts per 100 shots from the field, fourth). They outscored their opponents by 2.8 points per game, the league’s biggest differential, at the free throw line.

• Combining pick-and-roll ball-handler and roll-man possessions (via Synergy tracking), the Hawks scored just 0.87 points per possession on 33 possessions per game in the conference finals, down from 1.03 points per possession on 39 possessions per game through the first two rounds.

Key question: Is De’Andre Hunter a plus on both ends of the floor?

Hunter’s return from a long absence was brief (he played three regular season games and five playoff games before suffering a meniscus tear in his right knee), but it was very intriguing, especially on defense, where he played a critical role in slowing down Julius Randle. In 329 total minutes with Hunter, John Collins and Clint Capela on the floor together last season (regular season + playoffs), the Hawks allowed just 96.1 points per 100 possessions and outscored their opponents by 15.6 per 100.

More of those minutes would be nice, but Hunter obviously has to stay healthy. And if he can take a step forward offensively (a little more off the dribble, closer to 40% on catch-and-shoot 3s), the Hawks have a heck of a starting five. And if there aren’t enough minutes to go around on the perimeter, that’s a good problem to have.

 

I honestly don't think they did that bad..... My adjustments would be...

1 Nets 2 Bucks 3 Hawks 4 Heat 5 76ers?? 6 Pacers 7 Knicks

 8 Celtics 9 Wizards 10 Bulls 11 Hornets (All Playoff/Play In Potential) 12 Raptors 13 Cleveland 14 Pistons 15 Magic

The East is truly a Beast (nba overall) and the right tweaks can give a team a slight edge. I wouldn't doubt the power of depth and continuity though. That's why I have a team like the Pacers so high and the Bulls so low. 

The Hornets could definitely surprise and take one of those teams out of the playoffs/play in. It's all still up in the air though since the season has yet to begin. 

I wouldn't be surprised at all if we (Atlanta) took 1st or 2nd place in the conference. I know Trae studies the stats and I haven't done my research on 1st place teams winning it all. If the probabilities are high I wouldn't be surprised to see us go for it.

Miami is not better than the 76ers.  What has Miami done that makes everyone think they are going to make significant jump in the standings?  Joel Embiid alone makes the 76ers better than the Heat. 

Edited August 26, 2021 by marco102

[niremetal]

1 hour ago, marco102 said:

Miami is not better than the 76ers.  What has Miami done that makes everyone think they are going to make significant jump in the standings?  Joel Embiid alone makes the 76ers better than the Heat. 

If Simmons really is holding out for a trade and has no intention of playing again for the Sixers, it's not clear how good they'll be next year. Much hate as he got for his play in the playoffs, Simmons was far and away their second-best player. And it's not clear who they can get back that can make them as good as they were last year. 

[marco102]

1 minute ago, niremetal said:

If Simmons really is holding out for a trade and has no intention of playing again for the Sixers, it's not clear how good they'll be next year. Much hate as he got for his play in the playoffs, Simmons was far and away their second-best player. And it's not clear who they can get back that can make them as good as they were last year. 

I can understand this line of thinking. However, Simmons can't hold out.  He'll have to play. If he doesn't play he won't get paid. It'll probably be a breach of contract. He may play so crappy that they trade him like James Harden, but he'll play nonetheless.

I'll still take a team of Joel Embiid with shooters surrounding him over Maimi. I just don't believe in Miami. As I spelled out in other posts, Jimmy's on the decline. I don't believe Lowry will make that big of a difference.  The only way Miami improves this season is if Bam, Herro, and Robinson make significant jumps.

[niremetal]

3 minutes ago, marco102 said:

I can understand this line of thinking. However, Simmons can't hold out.  He'll have to play. If he doesn't play he won't get paid. It'll probably be a breach of contract. He may play so crappy that they trade him like James Harden, but he'll play nonetheless.

I'll still take a team of Joel Embiid with shooters surrounding him over Maimi. I just don't believe in Miami. As I spelled out in other posts, Jimmy's on the decline. I don't believe Lowry will make that big of a difference.  The only way Miami improves this season is if Bam, Herro, and Robinson make significant jumps.

I think people really underrate how key Simmons was to making the Sixers work. IMHO, the Sixers will be a hot mess if they are forced into trading Simmons rather than bringing back an improved version of him (i.e., one that can hit free throws). They have zero even semi-point guards on their roster aside from him. Embiid is not Jokic, and Seth and Maxey are both undersized 2-guards with poor court vision and distributing skills. Their offense will be stagnant AF, and their defense will take a major step back as well. If I'm them, I'm jumping all over the CJ McCollum trade that's been mooted (McCollum is a natural PG who switched to SG so that he could play with Lillard), but Morey is too dumb to make that deal. I don't see the Sixers winning 50 games this season.

As for the Heat, I agree people are giving them too much credit (just like I think people are not giving the Bulls enough), but I think they'll be better next year. This past season was rough for veteran teams because of the condensed schedule. Lowry is an upgrade, Duncan Robinson will continue to improve, and Butler will have fresher legs than last year as the season wears on. I see them and the Sixers on the same plane.

[marco102]

6 minutes ago, niremetal said:

I think people really underrate how key Simmons was to making the Sixers work. IMHO, the Sixers will be a hot mess if they are forced into trading Simmons rather than bringing back an improved version of him (i.e., one that can hit free throws). They have zero even semi-point guards on their roster aside from him. Embiid is not Jokic, and Seth and Maxey are both undersized 2-guards with poor court vision and distributing skills. Their offense will be stagnant AF, and their defense will take a major step back as well. If I'm them, I'm jumping all over the CJ McCollum trade that's been mooted (McCollum is a natural PG who switched to SG so that he could play with Lillard), but Morey is too dumb to make that deal. I don't see the Sixers winning 50 games this season.

As for the Heat, I agree people are giving them too much credit (just like I think people are not giving the Bulls enough), but I think they'll be better next year. This past season was rough for veteran teams because of the condensed schedule. Lowry is an upgrade, Duncan Robinson will continue to improve, and Butler will have fresher legs than last year as the season wears on. I see them and the Sixers on the same plane.

From Philly's asking price Simmons will be on the team.  Again, as currently constructed the Sixers are the same team that was the number one seed.  Simmons can be pissed all he wants, but I still think he'll go out there and play well.

In my opinion, Miami is in the same tier as the Bulls. 

Edit:  I am a Miami hater btw.  I just see them in the 5th - 8th range which is still a very solid playoff team. 

Edited August 27, 2021 by marco102

[niremetal]

10 minutes ago, marco102 said:

In my opinion, Miami is in the same tier as the Bulls. 

I agree with you there...but mainly because I think the Bulls are better than I suspect you think they are 

I consider Miami, Philly, and Chicago to all be in the East's second tier now, along with Boston (with the Nets, Bucks, and Hawks in the tier above them). That is, very likely to make the playoffs and maybe compete for home court, but long shots to make a serious title run. I think that the Sixers are bound to regress to that tier unless Simmons comes back *better* than he was last year, because the blueprint to attack him is now clear to everyone, and it will stay that way until he starts becoming consistent enough with his free throw shooting that he feels comfortable attacking the basket. It's really a fatal flaw in a point guard, and thus for the team, since they have no one else who can initiate an offense and create for others.

I think the Bulls definitely improved themselves into that tier as well. DeRozan and Ball were great additions--just not worth the price they paid. I think people see that the Bulls overpaid and equate that with "they didn't significantly improve," when the reality is that they did significantly improve, but not by enough to compete for a title...and, by the same token, not by enough to justify tying up all their cap space and tanking their ability to improve any further.

Edited August 27, 2021 by niremetal

[Diesel]

2 hours ago, marco102 said:

Miami is not better than the 76ers.  What has Miami done that makes everyone think they are going to make significant jump in the standings?  Joel Embiid alone makes the 76ers better than the Heat. 

[Diesel]

34 minutes ago, niremetal said:

I think people really underrate how key Simmons was to making the Sixers work. IMHO, the Sixers will be a hot mess if they are forced into trading Simmons rather than bringing back an improved version of him (i.e., one that can hit free throws). They have zero even semi-point guards on their roster aside from him. Embiid is not Jokic, and Seth and Maxey are both undersized 2-guards with poor court vision and distributing skills. Their offense will be stagnant AF, and their defense will take a major step back as well. If I'm them, I'm jumping all over the CJ McCollum trade that's been mooted (McCollum is a natural PG who switched to SG so that he could play with Lillard), but Morey is too dumb to make that deal. I don't see the Sixers winning 50 games this season.

As for the Heat, I agree people are giving them too much credit (just like I think people are not giving the Bulls enough), but I think they'll be better next year. This past season was rough for veteran teams because of the condensed schedule. Lowry is an upgrade, Duncan Robinson will continue to improve, and Butler will have fresher legs than last year as the season wears on. I see them and the Sixers on the same plane.

I like the Maxey kid. I think he can play PG for that team.   With the Ball in his hand, Embiid is somewhat like Jokic.. He's more dominant as a scorer and he passes out of doubles very well. 

But I do agree that people underrate Simmons. 

[sillent]

3 hours ago, Diesel said:

76ers are in flux until they make a trade and we know what that team really is... Who wants to be at a job environment where they don't like and the coworkers don't care for em? On top of that they will instantly lose defense in return. Especially if they get Dame because I'm sure Thyblle has to be a part of the asking price. The Process has been destroyed. Anything prolonged is just a ticking time bomb.

 

I wouldn't give Miami that much credit if they didn't still have Victor Oladipo.

It's a question mark too but if he can stay healthy he will be an X factor.

Edited August 27, 2021 by sillent

[niremetal]

5 hours ago, Diesel said:

I like the Maxey kid. I think he can play PG for that team.   With the Ball in his hand, Embiid is somewhat like Jokic.. He's more dominant as a scorer and he passes out of doubles very well. 

But I do agree that people underrate Simmons. 

Maxey can play point in a pinch, but he just doesn't have the mentality or the court vision to be a point guard. There's a reason no one really saw him as a NBA PG during the draft despite the fact that he's way undersized (and not nearly a reliable enough outside shooter) to make a living as a wing. I'd be willing to bet that Maxey never averages 6 ast/gm or 6.5 ast/36min over any full season. His future is as an off-the-bench gunslinger with a ceiling (not likely to be reached) of Lou Williams...and more likely a Flip Murray type (except he's even shorter than Flip).

Re Embiid being somewhat like Jokic...I think "somewhat" is the key word. Agreed that Embiid has very good passing skills for a big man, but more in the same way that Brad Miller or late-career Arvydas Sabonis did--good at passing out of doubles (like you said) or making good reads of cutters from the post. But he's not a guy you want to give the ball with 19 seconds on the clock and ask him to create for teammates on a regular basis, both because he's not *that* good at it and because he'd burn out. Literally the only big men who've ever had the combination of court vision, stamina, and ball-handling skills on that level have been Jokic, Soviet-era Sabonis, and Divac (plus Magic and Simmons, if you're going by size alone). And even Divac was never actually used that way.

So yeah...there's just no one on the roster who I think can initiate if Simmons is rendered ineffective as a PG, as he was in the semis last season.

[Diesel]

1 hour ago, niremetal said:

 

Re Embiid being somewhat like Jokic...I think "somewhat" is the key word. Agreed that Embiid has very good passing skills for a big man, but more in the same way that Brad Miller or late-career Arvydas Sabonis did--good at passing out of doubles (like you said) or making good reads of cutters from the post. But he's not a guy you want to give the ball with 19 seconds on the clock and ask him to create for teammates on a regular basis, both because he's not *that* good at it and because he'd burn out. Literally the only big men who've ever had the combination of court vision, stamina, and ball-handling skills on that level have been Jokic, Soviet-era Sabonis, and Divac (plus Magic and Simmons, if you're going by size alone). And even Divac was never actually used that way.

So yeah...there's just no one on the roster who I think can initiate if Simmons is rendered ineffective as a PG, as he was in the semis last season.

I think for how they are built and what they would need to do, he's perfect.   Jokic is Jokic.  However, Philly has built shooters around Embidd and he has slashers in the person of Harris and Simmons.   This means that when Embiid gets the ball in the low post, he has options.   Not to mention, that Embiid himself can go outside and hit shots.  His high post moves are killer.  The guy is a load.  He just has to remain injury free. 

[thecampster]

If you are Cleveland, how can this be your offseason? How can your attitude be (let's run it back but add a rook).

 

Cleveland Cavaliers

2020-21 record: 22-50
Pace: 98.0 (25) OffRtg: 105.2 (28) DefRtg: 113.5 (25) NetRtg: -8.3 (28)

Key addition(s): Evan Mobley, Ricky Rubio
Key departure(s): Taurean Prince

[Diesel]

8 minutes ago, thecampster said:

If you are Cleveland, how can this be your offseason? How can your attitude be (let's run it back but add a rook).

 

Cleveland Cavaliers

2020-21 record: 22-50
Pace: 98.0 (25) OffRtg: 105.2 (28) DefRtg: 113.5 (25) NetRtg: -8.3 (28)

Key addition(s): Evan Mobley, Ricky Rubio
Key departure(s): Taurean Prince

Cleveland is waiting on young guys to develop...

I mean, look at their core:

Sexton,  Garland, Okoro, Nance, and Allen. 

There's a lot of potential here.  Like him or not Sexton is becoming a all-star calibre player.   Garland is pretty Good and there's a wait and see about Okoro but the potential is there.  Evan Mobley is a defensive stallworth and I suspect that after he has put on some weight, he and Allen may play twin towers for a while.   They are just one of those young teams that won't win nothing but they have loads of potential. 

[kg01]

1 hour ago, thecampster said:

If you are Cleveland, how can this be your offseason? How can your attitude be (let's run it back but add a rook).

Well their pg was good enough to be involved with USAB so he must be one of the best in the league.

Ok, the non-snark answer is what diesel said.  They're counting on "organic" growth.  They're the new WLOC posse.

57 minutes ago, Diesel said:

Cleveland is waiting on young guys to develop...

I mean, look at their core:

Sexton,  Garland, Okoro, Nance, and Allen. 

There's a lot of potential here.  Like him or not Sexton is becoming a all-star calibre player.   Garland is pretty Good and there's a wait and see about Okoro but the potential is there.  Evan Mobley is a defensive stallworth and I suspect that after he has put on some weight, he and Allen may play twin towers for a while.   They are just one of those young teams that won't win nothing but they have loads of potential. 

Eh, you're right that they seem to be counting on development.  But I disagree that there's a "lot" of potential there.

I think Okoro is a miss.  The questions on his shot seem to be very real.  I'm not high on Mobley.  Too slight to play fulltime 5 (probably for another few years), not skilled enough to slide in at 4 next to Allen.

Sexton is becoming a bad-team all-star type, which is fine but the holes in his game mean he's not consistently contributing to wins.  Plus his fit with Garland is questionable.  Plus he's up to be paid now.  There's a reason he was on the block.

Edited August 27, 2021 by kg01

[AHF]

10 hours ago, marco102 said:

In my opinion, Miami is in the same tier as the Bulls. 

Edit:  I am a Miami hater btw.  I just see them in the 5th - 8th range which is still a very solid playoff team. 

 

10 hours ago, niremetal said:

I agree with you there...but mainly because I think the Bulls are better than I suspect you think they are 

I consider Miami, Philly, and Chicago to all be in the East's second tier now, along with Boston (with the Nets, Bucks, and Hawks in the tier above them). 

Chicago while better than last year is not close to Miami, IMO.  If you guys really think it is a toss up which is better, then I'll offer a bet up to the first one of you to embrace your Bulls love or your Miami hate (or both). 

If Miami finishes with a better record than Chicago, you wear the avatar of my choice for 3 weeks.

If Chicago finishes with a better record than Miami, I wear the avatar of your choice for 2 months.

 

If you guys are right and they are on the same tier, that is over 2x the reward for the same risk.  Should be a no-brainer given how amazing these Bulls are going to be this season, right?  

[kg01]

10 hours ago, marco102 said:

From Philly's asking price Simmons will be on the team.  Again, as currently constructed the Sixers are the same team that was the number one seed.  Simmons can be pissed all he wants, but I still think he'll go out there and play well.

In my opinion, Miami is in the same tier as the Bulls. 

Edit:  I am a Miami hater btw.  I just see them in the 5th - 8th range which is still a very solid playoff team. 

I tend to think we're gonna see something drastic happen with Simmons.  Like him refusing to report to camp or something.  I think people are vastly underestimating the impact of JoeLLLL and GLLLLenn Rivers' postgame comments.

Still, I agree MIA is in that 5-8 range and that's if they stay healthy.  If the wrong dude gets hurt, they're play-in status.  I could see the inflation if Tyler Zerro or Robinson take a next-step.  But I see nothing from Zerro that makes me believe he's been 'in the lab' this offseason.  And Robinson is what 27 already.  He is what he is.  And now he's just more expensive.

Even if LOladipo claws his way back, at his very best, he was a fringe all-star.  I'm not believing he's an impactful guy now that his athleticism has been sapped.  And that's IF he makes it back this year, which is very much in doubt.  Folks need to remember, despite the 'name' billing he has, he's only had 1 good year his whole career.  1!  Uno!  This ain't friggin Klay Thompson comin' back.  He's got multiple years of production to put on the table.  LOladipo does not.

[Gray Mule]

Simmons needs to go west!  But, the asking price is too high.  They either lower their price or he stays, even if he is unhappy being there.  Defense will remain great and his team, wherever he is, will be good.

I like the idea that Atlanta hit 81.2% of their free throws last season.  If our center has spent this off season, working on his free throws, we can be even better.  Everyone knows I love made free throws.  This is the one great reason I hope we do not trade for Simmons.  He's worse than Capela.

[marco102]

2 hours ago, thecampster said:

If you are Cleveland, how can this be your offseason? How can your attitude be (let's run it back but add a rook).

 

Cleveland Cavaliers

2020-21 record: 22-50
Pace: 98.0 (25) OffRtg: 105.2 (28) DefRtg: 113.5 (25) NetRtg: -8.3 (28)

Key addition(s): Evan Mobley, Ricky Rubio
Key departure(s): Taurean Prince

What team is Tauren on now?

[marco102]

51 minutes ago, AHF said:

 

Chicago while better than last year is not close to Miami, IMO.  If you guys really think it is a toss up which is better, then I'll offer a bet up to the first one of you to embrace your Bulls love or your Miami hate (or both). 

If Miami finishes with a better record than Chicago, you wear the avatar of my choice for 3 weeks.

If Chicago finishes with a better record than Miami, I wear the avatar of your choice for 2 months.

 

If you guys are right and they are on the same tier, that is over 2x the reward for the same risk.  Should be a no-brainer given how amazing these Bulls are going to be this season, right?  

I never said Miami wasn't better than Chicago. I said they are in the same tier of teams. We can make a avatar bet that Miami will finish in 5th -8th like they have the past few seasons.