I'm calling it right now...I think the Hawks will be the #1 seed in the East!

[sturt]

10 hours ago, Final_quest said:

Right now I’m giving this team about 15-20 games before I make any sort of conclusion.

I don't think you're wrong ordinarily... in fact, normally I put the number at 25 games before a team's likely trajectory can be predicted with any confidence.

But the reason I've set that aside for the 2021-22 Hawks is that practically all of the team's key parts already have significant time together. To the degree that there is any doubt about players, it's mainly a matter of how much they'll mature, not whether they have plateaued or how much they'll regress.

So, it really is exclusively about health from my perspective.

[JeffS17]

12 hours ago, Final_quest said:

That’s awesome some of you guys feel this way.  Here is where I disagree.  In the 40 years I’ve watched basketball, the champion typically has a top 5 player and usually another guy in the top 15-20 players in the league.  There are always two HOF players on the winning team, but many times three.  
Occasionally a team wins it all without fitting into that model, but it’s rare.  Right now as a fan that’s what I’m cheering for, that we get a title by breaking the usual mold.  

Those who feel like we have a solid championship roster today.  Do you reject my observation that historically the champion has at least two top 20 players typically?  Minimum of two HOF players is just factual so that one has no subjectivity.  

Lastly, in a league where teams are shooting 34 threes per game on average, some guys are advocating for us to get rid of Bogi and Gallo.  The only two guys capable of shooting 40% on 7 attempts per game.  Milwaukee as a team was shooting 40% from three, and they have Giannis.  So a future of low volume and low percentage shooting is going to win because “Wing Stop” is too solid and will shut EVERYTHING down.  Really think about that one.

Right now I’m giving this team about 15-20 games before I make any sort of conclusion.  My prediction is we finish as a 3-5 seed, and have a puncher’s chance at a title.  Other teams will be more heavily favored.  
 

I get what you're saying but it's all revisionist history.  The observation that the champs have a top 5 player and a top 20 player is a subjective one and one that is influenced by ...that team winning the championship.  It's a bit of a tautology.  The team that wins will have it's most impactful player jump in everyones rankings and the rest of the roster will be in the spotlight so it's typical the next best player jumps in peoples rankings too.  I believe that the Hawks absolutely have players that can be ranked that high by virtue of winning series and then possibly winning the chip.  

There's an alternate future out there where we win the chip this year and you're arguing with someone in 2030 on HawkSquawk about a completely different Hawks roster and why the 2030 team has no chance to win it all because they dont have a top 5 player -- and the 2022 chip is different because we had hall of famer and MVP trae young, 6x all-star and top 20 player de'andre hunter, and 5x all-star and 2x DPOY cam reddish.

All that to say, waiting for thing to happen and accolades to be collected before making bold predictions isn't fun!

[sillent]

On 10/23/2021 at 9:35 AM, Peoriabird said:

I know its early in the season but the Hawks look like the best team in the east so far.  I know that a lot of posters don't believe in the our young core and will point to the fact that none of them except Trae has made an all star appearance but I'm will push back and blame media bias.  I predicted 4 all stars for this up coming season and after game 1, I can make the case for each one of them.

Hunter is possibly the 3rd best defensive wing in the league.  Combine that with the his ability on Offense which he displayed last year pre injury makes him a strong candidate for the all star team

John Collins is an easy case for me.  One of the most efficient players in the league on offense and now his defense is top 20 maybe top 10 easily makes him a strong candidate for him to be an All star

Clint Capela will be on the all defensive team and probably lead the league in rebounding again.  If game 1 is any indicator, he has even improved his touch around the rim.  should have been an all star last year.

The league will not make the mistake of leaving Trae Young off the all star team again.

And of course I'll stand by my statement that Trae's supporting cast and the Hawks bench are superior to any team in the East including Milwaukee.

Did I make this post? I don't remember but for some reason my name is showing as @Peoriabird 

[sillent]

On 10/23/2021 at 11:18 AM, marco102 said:

I predicted 61-21.  Only @MarylandHawk was higher than me.  I believe he saw my prediction and said NO Marco!  I'm the biggest homer here and you're second!

That's what I was thinking because I predicted 60  

[sillent]

3 hours ago, sturt said:

I think this point is probably a novel one to some, if not many, if not most... including our media friends who've taken for granted that Gallo won't be a Hawk next season. It's probable, sure, but as you've suggested, there's a plausible scenario where his agent and Schlenk figure out something longer term.

Jalen Johnson is here so we can stay good or get even better while continuing to stay young.

It's a natural process just like aging and Gallo isn't a two way player.

That's why we need to win a ring with him this yr. He can depart happy or be happy to be a 2/3 man for the low off the bench.

To keep as many good players as we have, sacrifices have to be made along the road in order to have longevity.

[Plainview1981]

This team has the same weakness they had before. 3rd-5th is probably closer to reality.

Too many wings and not enough toughness upfront.

There not going to be able to sneak up on anybody like the 2nd half last year.

Edited October 25, 2021 by Plainview1981

[Final_quest]

14 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

What exactly are you looking for in 30-40 games?

Quick Look at 1st 3 NBA seasons for Huerter and Bogi -  3pt % and shots per game.

Huerter: 38.5% (4.7), 38% (6), 36% (5.6)

Bogi: 39.2% (4.2), 36% (5.3), 37% (7.2)

Last season was Bogi's first over 40% on 7.6 attempts.

 

I've made this point about Huerter before, but didn't want to reiterate it until you brought him up specifically.  My view is our success last year was due partially to the fact that we ADDED Bogi and Gallo to Huerter and Trae.  What I said is that if you trade Gallo for a pick we might be OK, but both Gallo and Bogi would be too much of a loss.  Since Huerter was on the team BEFORE we had those guys he's not a replacement for their production.  If Cam really can suddenly go from a 28% shooter to 37-40% from three, that works for me and would shock the hell out of me.  

Jeff, to your point I've often wondered if guys like Robert Parish and Draymond Green would be thought of as Hall of Famers if they were stuck in some bottom of the pack franchise instead of being paired with Larry Bird and Steph Curry.  Shaq always told his role players that he was gonna make them rich and he did.  I think you do need at least one true alpha all time great to make that happen, more likely two.  Like you need Steph and Klay to create that effect.  After last postseason, Trae looks like he could be headed that direction, but again I'm not 100% convinced and right now I believe he still needs to be paired with someone on Klay Thompson's level.   

You guys believe what you want to.  To Marco's point I don't want to be like the doctor and turn every thread into my pet issue.  Still, I don't think this board is an only homers allowed kind of place.  I don't mind being the heel for taking a point of view that is probably held by everyone who isn't a Hawks fan.  I think we are Milwaukee before they added Jrue, Toronto before they traded for Kawhi, and not Golden State who had all the pieces homegrown.  But just like the Toronto fans cheered for the Derozan teams, I'm gonna be right there cheering all of our team on because it's fun, and they just might win it all anyways. We'll definitely know if we're on a 60 win trajectory really soon because math.  
 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

On 10/23/2021 at 10:31 AM, Gray Mule said:

I hope these Hawks don't get too high on themselves and let game #2 of the season slip away.

Atlanta is good.  Other eastern teams are good.  Their bench is good.  Atlanta's bench is great!  The difference.  Every time our team takes the floor they will be tested.  They have now become the team to beat in the east.  Being looked down upon by many media heads gives other teams hope.

We are what we are.  Now, we must prove it to ourselves and others.  We will.  46-36 for the year.  I expect the east to be tight.

 

 

Well . . . you called that one right on the money GM.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

20 hours ago, Final_quest said:

I make the comments about Bogi and Gallo with total understanding that we will have tough decisions with our roster.  My point is IF both Bogi and Gallo are cut we are left with no high volume, high percentage shooters.  That will impact winning negatively.  It’s simple data analysis. There may be good reasons to go that direction, but believing we will also stay at the 60 win level afterwards is where I have DOUBT. Which everyone predicting #1 seed and 60 wins without those guys plus no significant additions are flat out wrong/crazy in my mind.

Your point about Hunter becoming a HOF player.  That remains to be seen.  The saying, “Hope is not a strategy” comes to mind.  This year he will reach the level of the other greats who teamed up with an MVP level guy to win it all?  At least recognize that is a BOLD statement.

I’m not saying we have zero chance at a title, but that it’s a stretch goal. I come from a business background.  We make cold assertions and require data and results.  We don’t yet meet the criteria for favorites to win a title.    That’s not a slam and we still have a lot to cheer for.  

 

 

Gallo was the guy that we missed vs the Cavs, especially when Collins got in foul trouble.

[terrell]

On 10/23/2021 at 3:24 PM, Peoriabird said:

That was under Lloyd Pierce

 And now Nate.....

[terrell]

32 minutes ago, Plainview1981 said:

This team has the same weakness they had before. 3rd-5th is probably closer to reality.

Too many wings and not enough toughness upfront.

There not going to be able to sneak up on anybody like the 2nd half last year.

Agreed.. 45-48 wins for me.. 

East is Alot better...

Edited October 25, 2021 by terrell

[marco102]

56 minutes ago, terrell said:

Agreed.. 45-48 wins for me.. 

East is Alot better...

So you think the Hawks will be 5th or 6th seed? That's what that record would get you in a revamped East.

[terrell]

1 minute ago, marco102 said:

So you think the Hawks will be 5th or 6th seed? That's what that record would get you in a revamped East.

Yes....

[marco102]

6 minutes ago, terrell said:

Yes....

So what four to five teams you believe are better? 

With a fifth or six seed do you think they will be a first round exit this year too?

Last year really was an anomaly for a fifth seed to win that much on the road.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Honestly, there's no reason why the Hawks shouldn't be a 50 - 55 win team.   We have the star player who can take over games.  We have the complimentary shooters.  We have the frontline that can defend.  The only thing we really don't have, is that 2nd guy that can routinely take over a game along with Trae, or when Trae is having an off night.

The biggest thing that will get us, is our lack of size at the point, or on the front line when we play the real big teams.

Gallinari is much more important to the Hawks than people give him credit for.  He gives us another big in the lineup that can not only shoot, but can create and make his own shot, a trait that most championship teams need out of their players.  He also proved his worth in the playoffs as a defender out on the perimeter.  You don't want him guarding centers that live around the rim.  But he was definitely useful guarding PFs and Cs that like to work 20 feet and in.

Never forget that it was the BIG LINEUP that powered us through the playoffs Gallo - Collins - Capela ).  And it was the BIG LINEUP that enabled the Hawks to run a switch defense on Embiid that saw Gallo matched up on him, instead of a smaller player.  If this is Hunter or Cam that switched on Embiid in this situation, they are barbeque chicken, because Embiid would've powered his way to the rim.

Instead, the Hawks were able to switch with Gallo, and this happened:

 

 

 

 

Never forget.

 

[terrell]

15 minutes ago, marco102 said:

So what four to five teams you believe are better? 

With a fifth or six seed do you think they will be a first round exit this year too?

Last year really was an anomaly for a fifth seed to win that much on the road.

1.Bucks

2.Nets

3.Heat

4.Sixers

5.Hawks

6.Bulls

7.Knicks

8.Celtics

9.Hornets

(3-7 could go either way really)

10.Pacers/Wizards

 

 

12.Raptors

13.Cavs

14.Magic

15.Pistons

 Or something similar.. lol

East is deep this year.....

 

Edited October 25, 2021 by terrell

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Also in that same game, it was Gallo's 2nd half offense that really kept the game close, while Trae was struggling mightily.  Huerter and Gallo really stepped up in that game.  Gallo in particular had a mismatch on him, especially when they played him at the 3.

 

 

[terrell]

8 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

Honestly, there's no reason why the Hawks shouldn't be a 50 - 55 win team.   We have the star player who can take over games.  We have the complimentary shooters.  We have the frontline that can defend.  The only thing we really don't have, is that 2nd guy that can routinely take over a game along with Trae, or when Trae is having an off night.

The biggest thing that will get us, is our lack of size at the point, or on the front line when we play the real big teams.

Gallinari is much more important to the Hawks than people give him credit for.  He gives us another big in the lineup that can not only shoot, but can create and make his own shot, a trait that most championship teams need out of their players.  He also proved his worth in the playoffs as a defender out on the perimeter.  You don't want him guarding centers that live around the rim.  But he was definitely useful guarding PFs and Cs that like to work 20 feet and in.

Never forget that it was the BIG LINEUP that powered us through the playoffs Gallo - Collins - Capela ).  And it was the BIG LINEUP that enabled the Hawks to run a switch defense on Embiid that saw Gallo matched up on him, instead of a smaller player.  If this is Hunter or Cam that switched on Embiid in this situation, they are barbeque chicken, because Embiid would've powered his way to the rim.

Instead, the Hawks were able to switch with Gallo, and this happened:

 

 

 

 

Never forget.

 

At least We hope he can still take over games without getting the foul calls..

[TheNorthCydeRises]

2 minutes ago, terrell said:

1.Bucks

2.Nets

3.Heat

4.Sixers

5.Hawks

6.Bulls

7.Knicks

8.Celtics

9.Hornets

10.Pacers/Wizards

 

 

12.Raptors

13.Cavs

14.Magic

15.Pistons

 Or something similar.. lol

East is deep this year.....

 

 

If the Hawks finish 5th in the East, the regular season would've been a HUGE disappointment . . unless we're a 52 win / 5th seed.

Anything below a 4th seed is a regular season failure, in my opinion.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

2 minutes ago, terrell said:

At least We hope he can still take over games without getting the foul calls..

 

He'll be able to adjust.  Developing that midrange jumper will be the key, if they take away the floater.  But if they give him less calls, he needs to be more efficient with his shooting.  That comes with taking open shots, whether it be 15 foot midrange jumpers or 35 foot logo shots in rhythm.