Upgrade coming per Schlenk

[sturt]

21 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

 As someone famous once said... "you can make stats say anything"

Which is true, but then you have to do the grunt work of figuring out what's actually valid versus what isn't.

You can suggest, for instance, that "Well, he was on a bad defensive team," and cite the ranking of the team's DRTG. That much would be validated by that. What wouldn't be validated, then/though... would be to say, based on that... "So, then, you can't say whether he was part of what made them a bad defensive team."

To the contrary. You absolutely can.

You can look at his own DRTG to see if the opposition scored more or less when he was on the floor over the course of 1400+ minutes (no small sample size, then)...

To the degree that he was among those whose individual DRTG was better than the team DRTG, then it's plausible that he was an outlier, and shouldn't be counted as a bad defensive player that season...

And... the converse is also true. The converse was true, indeed, for Justin last season. He was among those who most contributed, actually, to pulling down IND's team DRTG.

Can't make the stats say otherwise in that case.

 

21 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

So if Holiday has a positive impact on our D this year does that mean you were wrong?  or he just turned it around?

Like Schlenk said in his exit interview last spring, and like I said when I mentioned PJ Tucker... each season has its own conditions that make it different.

We're only talking about likelihood.

I'm not wrong. Trends... and this is a three season trend for a 33 year old player, mind you... speak to likelihood.

But it's not impossible for a player to turn it around. PJ Tucker seemed pretty washed up... until he didn't. It wasn't likely for him to do that, but likelihood doesn't define what will happen... only what is reasonable to predict will happen.

[AHF]

25 minutes ago, sturt said:

Like Schlenk said in his exit interview last spring, and like I said when I mentioned PJ Tucker... each season has its own conditions that make it different.

We're only talking about likelihood.

I'm not wrong. Trends... and this is a three season trend for a 33 year old player, mind you... speak to likelihood.

But it's not impossible for a player to turn it around. PJ Tucker seemed pretty washed up... until he didn't. It wasn't likely for him to do that, but likelihood doesn't define what will happen... only what is reasonable to predict will happen.

The biggest reason for upside, imo, is that Nate and JH have reunited and the rest of the Atlanta team is upgraded.  Under Nate and with JH, Indiana was the 6th best team by DRTG and JH was above average.  

For the first reason, obviously Nate liked what he saw from JH enough to want him here so there is the potential he could employ JH more effectively than Bjorkgren, Walton, etc.

For the second reason, JH performed poorly on some terrible defenses.  This might represent a profile where he does a decent job of being where he needs to be but isn't an impactful individual defender meaning that on teams with good defenses he can contribute by helping the group knit together but he doesn't have the tools to positively impact the defense when the rest of the team is weak.  It remains to be seen whether this Hawks team will be a strong D overall but it looks clearly improved and that might represent a better environment for him to be successful than his last two seasons.

That said, I share your view that he isn't a particularly talented player so it might also be the case that we see the trend you have identified continue.  But there are at least two significant circumstances that are changing from the last two years that might increase the likelihood of his success.  I will caveat that I didn't study Hamilton performance on the floor with Indiana or Sacramento so this is more just me spit balling than saying something like that he is a great fit here but was a square peg in a round hole there.

[sturt]

37 minutes ago, AHF said:

The biggest reason for upside, imo, is that Nate and JH have reunited and the rest of the Atlanta team is upgraded.  Under Nate and with JH, Indiana was the 6th best team by DRTG and JH was above average.  

For the first reason, obviously Nate liked what he saw from JH enough to want him here so there is the potential he could employ JH more effectively than Bjorkgren, Walton, etc.

For the second reason, JH performed poorly on some terrible defenses.  This might represent a profile where he does a decent job of being where he needs to be but isn't an impactful individual defender meaning that on teams with good defenses he can contribute by helping the group knit together but he doesn't have the tools to positively impact the defense when the rest of the team is weak.  It remains to be seen whether this Hawks team will be a strong D overall but it looks clearly improved and that might represent a better environment for him to be successful than his last two seasons.

That said, I share your view that he isn't a particularly talented player so it might also be the case that we see the trend you have identified continue.  But there are at least two significant circumstances that are changing from the last two years that might increase the likelihood of his success.  I will caveat that I didn't study Hamilton performance on the floor with Indiana or Sacramento so this is more just me spit balling than saying something like that he is a great fit here but was a square peg in a round hole there.

Fair enough.

[Spud2nique]

On 10/12/2022 at 9:18 AM, Spud2nique said:

He gets on the Heat side and it’s a double whammy.

Heat the preferred trade destination for Jae Crowder?

Jae Crowder has been often mentioned as Miami’s primary target to replace P.J. Tucker, a fellow contending mercenary forward, once Tucker departed for Philadelphia in free agency — on another three-year, $30-plus million deal structure similar to Crowder’s purported wishes. Heat officials have even expressed confidence Miami is Crowder’s preferred destination. By all accounts, Crowder didn’t want to leave Miami after he contributed to the Heat’s 2020 Eastern Conference championship, but Miami balked at the three-for-30 number Crowder was seeking then, just as he purportedly is now. So, why not wait to see if Crowder ultimately finds a buyout, in Phoenix or elsewhere, and flocks back to South Beach with open arms?

 

– via Jake Fischer @ Yahoo! Sports

 Top Rumors, Free Agency, Trade, Jae Crowder, Miami Heat, Phoenix Suns

 

JHol and JJ for Crowder! #cantstopwontstop

@kg01 the best shape of his life. We need him imo. Pay the price Schlenk!

 

 

[kg01]

17 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

JHol and JJ for Crowder! #cantstopwontstop

@kg01 the best shape of his life. We need him imo. Pay the price Schlenk!

 

 

Don't fall for the okeydoke.  He's gonna be a Heat.  Hawks being used here.

"Best shape of his career"?

Cap

(Am I doing that right, kids?)

[sturt]

PHX probably just waiting to see some team's GM get antsy and panicky.

When Landry, Travis and I held our last conference call, we agreed that wouldn't be us.

Best deal I'm authorizing is one that sends out Justin to PHX, a couple of 2nds to UTH... PHX gets Vanderbilt from Jazz who they were said to have coveted in the off-season... and we get Crowder. Has to be that deal or something very strongly resembling it.

[Spud2nique]

10 hours ago, kg01 said:

He's gonna be a Heat. 

And that’s bad news. 
 

We are at the stage where we could really use a guy like Jae Crowder, a motivated Jae Crowder, a pissed off Jae Crowder in a contract year, honestly if it costs us JHol and JJ, I’ll pay it for a rental. 
 

Reggie Miller even said it on the telecast of the Suns game last night, Jae Crowder is an ENFORCER. We need one.

Dejounte, Hunter, Cap and OO can all defend. None are THAT guy. The closest is Trae but his role isn’t to dirty up the other team physically, Jae’s role however, is just that and to get under the skin of the opponents.

11th year in the league for Jae and he’s been professional for most of not all and he shows up to play and play extremely hard.

The Hawks need that.

Colonel 🫡 GET JAE NOW!!!!

Leggooooo!

[nathan2331]

1 hour ago, Spud2nique said:

And that’s bad news. 
 

We are at the stage where we could really use a guy like Jae Crowder, a motivated Jae Crowder, a pissed off Jae Crowder in a contract year, honestly if it costs us JHol and JJ, I’ll pay it for a rental. 
 

Reggie Miller even said it on the telecast of the Suns game last night, Jae Crowder is an ENFORCER. We need one.

Dejounte, Hunter, Cap and OO can all defend. None are THAT guy. The closest is Trae but his role isn’t to dirty up the other team physically, Jae’s role however, is just that and to get under the skin of the opponents.

11th year in the league for Jae and he’s been professional for most of not all and he shows up to play and play extremely hard.

The Hawks need that.

Colonel 🫡 GET JAE NOW!!!!

Leggooooo!

You're right that we could use Jae Crowder but I'm not trading JJ for a goon with a mediocre offensive game. Much less one who is looking to get paid in the offseason. I don't think we'll do it because of the luxury tax implications anyways, but JJ is too talented to trade for Crowder, even if he may be the more impactful player.

[kg01]

1 hour ago, Spud2nique said:

And that’s bad news. 
 

We are at the stage where we could really use a guy like Jae Crowder, a motivated Jae Crowder, a pissed off Jae Crowder in a contract year, honestly if it costs us JHol and JJ, I’ll pay it for a rental. 
 

Reggie Miller even said it on the telecast of the Suns game last night, Jae Crowder is an ENFORCER. We need one.

Dejounte, Hunter, Cap and OO can all defend. None are THAT guy. The closest is Trae but his role isn’t to dirty up the other team physically, Jae’s role however, is just that and to get under the skin of the opponents.

11th year in the league for Jae and he’s been professional for most of not all and he shows up to play and play extremely hard.

The Hawks need that.

Colonel 🫡 GET JAE NOW!!!!

Leggooooo!

He's a 'nice to have' not a 'gotta have'.  And, again, this is a buyout guy.  Don't trade assets for him.

[Spud2nique]

1 hour ago, nathan2331 said:

You're right that we could use Jae Crowder but I'm not trading JJ for a goon with a mediocre offensive game. Much less one who is looking to get paid in the offseason. I don't think we'll do it because of the luxury tax implications anyways, but JJ is too talented to trade for Crowder, even if he may be the more impactful player.

Great so you wanna develop JJ who isn’t ready for an immediate playoff impact for somebody whose looking and hungry for a new contract. Smart. 

1 hour ago, kg01 said:

He's a 'nice to have' not a 'gotta have'.  And, again, this is a buyout guy.  Don't trade assets for him.

I got JHol and JJ dangling. us Suns.

[sturt]

 

Not necessarily.

Just like us, there's the potential that Heat would send out an asset to PHX they'd be smarter to not send... so it really depends on the other part of whatever that deal would look like.

[sturt]

1 hour ago, kg01 said:

He's a 'nice to have' not a 'gotta have'.

If there's no middle between those, I agree.

But if there's a middle between those, that's the space I occupy.

I believe he's a difference maker come post-season, but you can't wait until post-season to get guys that fall into that category, of course.

 

The question that is probably more divisive...

Would you, if you were Schleilds be willing to go over the tax line for him?

If we get to the trade deadline and our post season hopes are looking solid-to-great, and if he's still available, I wouldn't hesitate.

Look, we made a big move, and now we have a two year window to take full advantage of that big move. So, yeah, we're now at the horizon of the rebuild and it's time to put up or shut up.

[Spud2nique]

25 minutes ago, sturt said:

 

Not necessarily.

Just like us, there's the potential that Heat would send out an asset to PHX they'd be smarter to not send... so it really depends on the other part of whatever that deal would look like.

But would you agree that if colonel 🫡 Schlenk goes ahead and acquires Crowder, that I indeed hit the trifecta at the races? 
 

2020- OO  

2021- AJ  

2022-Crowder

 

GET’R DONE -Schlud (Schlenk +Spud) 

 Schlud lol I like it!

[sturt]

1 minute ago, Spud2nique said:

2021- AJ

Huh?

Wasn't that Jalen's year, or am I stuck in the Rocky Horror Picture Show...  ...???

 

Have never gotten this great admiration you desire, Spud, for having wanted Godzilla and AJ.

 

But okay. Why not.

 

I so admire you for that.

 

(Better now?)

[AtLaS]

2 hours ago, kg01 said:

He's a 'nice to have' not a 'gotta have'.  And, again, this is a buyout guy.  Don't trade assets for him.

1000%.  JJ has been terrible (in 3 games, mind you) but no way in hell I'm trading him for Crowder who isn't that good anyway.  

Any combination of Holiday + 2nd I would do.  I'm not giving up a young prospect.  That has potential disaster written all over it.

[kg01]

46 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

But would you agree that if colonel 🫡 Schlenk goes ahead and acquires Crowder, that I indeed hit the trifecta at the races? 
 

2020- OO  

2021- AJ  

2022-Crowder

 

GET’R DONE -Schlud (Schlenk +Spud) 

 Schlud lol I like it!

Aj for Crowder?

Still 'get r done'?  Crowder's that critically important, right?

[Spud2nique]

39 minutes ago, sturt said:

I so admire you for that.

Where my fckin then 

3:08 

 

[Spud2nique]

4 minutes ago, kg01 said:

Aj for Crowder?

No no, I said JJ. What? He couldn’t hear me the first time, oh, ok, I’ll give it another go. HEY KG I SAYSSSS JJ! 
 

AJ should be a part of our future moving forward along with OO. 
 

[terrell]

1 hour ago, Spud2nique said:

Great so you wanna develop JJ who isn’t ready for an immediate playoff impact for somebody whose looking and hungry for a new contract. Smart. 

I got JHol and JJ dangling. us Suns.

I wouldnt cry about it.. JJ has a ways to go..Who knows if he'll ever get there.. Especially with Nate coaching him. and using him like he's Gallanari... smh

[Gray Mule]

Jalen Johnson will improve.  Trae's shots will begin to fall.  AJ Griffin will get to play meaningful minutes.  Well, two out of three ain't bad.  JJ & Trae will happen.  Dreaming of the other one.