Maturity/age... 27ish appears to be the sweet spot

[sturt]

[RedDawg#8]

Agreed. It takes most star players 7-9 seasons to reach the promised land.

MJ, Bron, Curry, Giannis, Shaq, and many others were all between 26-28 before they won their first title.

These things take time

[JayBirdHawk]

I think this has been established/considered Prime/Peak years.

[sturt]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I think this has been established/considered Prime/Peak years.

Has it? I mean, it's not something one would ever think if the Squawk was his/her only source of NBA insight... yes?

[AHF]

30 minutes ago, sturt said:

Has it? I mean, it's not something one would ever think if the Squawk was his/her only source of NBA insight... yes?

I think that 27-32 range is generally regarded as peak years for basketball, baseball, hockey, etc.  Maybe everything but football honestly.  People have reached their full strength, they know the game by then, etc.  I can't really recall seeing discussions on the Squawk about a younger age being better.  Probably more discussion on the Squawk focused around the growth that players have left and whether their growth trajectory makes them worthy of their contract, etc.  That seems to be more of the focus for someone like JC, for example.  A combined concern about a downward trend in production combined with a fear of limited future growth and then taken in context of his contract and the development shown by JJ, OO, etc. and his fit with CC.

[AHF]

This is a frequent topic in fantasy sports in addition to real life sports:

Quote

Wide receivers are in their prime fantasy years from age-25 through age-32, according to this chart.

Quote

The ages of 26-29 presented the perfect combination of peak athleticism ahead of age decline, and adequate MLB experience for a player to learn the ins and outs of the game.

In this piece, we're breaking down three outfielders in the age 26-29 range that look like candidates for post-hype fantasy baseball breakouts in 2022.

 

Etc.

[JayBirdHawk]

1 hour ago, sturt said:

Has it? I mean, it's not something one would ever think if the Squawk was his/her only source of NBA insight... yes?

There have been enough discussions on here in past years regarding players 'prime' years.

[Spud2nique]

I’ll give you my sweet spot   Did you say 27 or 47 bad self. Carry on Stu carry the heck on! 

[Final_quest]

Well, you can't ignore things like talent, fit, contract costs, and expect to throw together a team of 27-28 year olds and get results.  That age isn't "magic".  Guys like Hunter and Collins who don't take you to a higher tier in the NBA, won't suddenly become allstars because they have a birthday and go from 26 to 27.  

No one on Hawksquawk has come out against 27 year olds.  Mediocre talent stays mediocre, even if they hit a "magic" age.  

[sturt]

10 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

There have been enough discussions on here in past years regarding players 'prime' years.

Oh. Well. Okay then. So damn persuasive. Thank you for helping me see the light.

Again.

[sturt]

11 hours ago, AHF said:

Probably more discussion on the Squawk focused around the growth that players have left and whether their growth trajectory makes them worthy of their contract, etc. 

Right. Agreed.

Not much in the way of... to the intended point here... contemplating it from the paradigm of the entire team.

Well... no... that's only accurate since we got back to the playoffs.

Prior to our 2021 run, I recall it being a fairly common conversation... wondering aloud when the "young core" would mature and become a force... and again, anticipating that this very season was a reasonable target to be getting back to the post season.

Our being ahead of that schedule, though, seems to have had an impact on many if not most perspectives around here in that vein... ie, the common assertion that all or most of our rotation guys over the age of 23 have likely hit their ceilings, thus the conclusion that it's pointless to expect any further significant development that would impact the overall team's outcomes.

And.

@Final_quest it always helps to think through what the other person's actual  precise point might be, so you don't waste words on a strawman assertion that virtually no one would argue with.

 

Look.

Most of the players on this roster, particularly those in the rotation, almost certainly will  show some degree of significant development over the course of the next 2-3 seasons. That's just conventional wisdom.

Expectations rose post season before last. Many of us, and I include myself, began to think of 21 and 22 year olds as-if they were 25 and 26 year olds. So, today, it's easy to think of them as having hit their ceiling or extremely close to it. That's just not likely the case, though, and it's not just a nice homer thought, but the reality that is borne out by NBA history.

We can do nothing this off-season, and we'll be better next. Not every playoff team can say that. Now, we certainly might be able to improve the roster. But the need for big moves is more negligible when your rotation is the youngest of the 2023 playoff teams, and the risk/reward ratio needs very serious contemplation before making big moves.

[JayBirdHawk]

34 minutes ago, sturt said:

Oh. Well. Okay then. So damn persuasive. Thank you for helping me see the light.

Again.

Just stating what I remember from years past, not trying to convince/sway you either way.

[sturt]

12 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

enough

I'll just clarify... but not that I really have that much interest in pursuing it... I understood all of the referenced post, except the inclusion of this term.

I don't know what the standard is for "enough." (And, yeah, it seems important on your side of the internet for whatever reason to err on the side of minimalism.)

That would seem to be a point of disagreement, but maybe I'm just over-thinking it.

If so, I'm remedying that right now by ending any further thought on my part.

 

[Final_quest]

3 hours ago, sturt said:

 

Most of the players on this roster, particularly those in the rotation, almost certainly will  show some degree of significant development over the course of the next 2-3 seasons. That's just conventional wisdom.

Expectations rose post season before last. Many of us, and I include myself, began to think of 21 and 22 year olds as-if they were 25 and 26 year olds. So, today, it's easy to think of them as having hit their ceiling or extremely close to it. That's just not likely the case, though, and it's not just a nice homer thought, but the reality that is borne out by NBA history.

We can do nothing this off-season, and we'll be better next. Not every playoff team can say that. Now, we certainly might be able to improve the roster. But the need for big moves is more negligible when your rotation is the youngest of the 2023 playoff teams, and the risk/reward ratio needs very serious contemplation before making big moves.

I don’t agree that every roster will improve with age and maturity.  The ECF team basically no longer exists and most of the players from that run are not on a trajectory you are describing.  

Trae- holding steady and that’s being generous, but has potential to improve

Capela- declining

Huerter- off the team

Collins- declining

Gallinari- off the team

Bogi- declining

Hunter- barely played during the ECF run.  Not moving upwards as a player in a significant way in any case.

***********************************

This is not a championship type core like Denver.  The formula that made us successful two years ago cannot be replicated with this same group.  Capela was a DPOY candidate leading the NBA in rebounds two years ago and that type of ability from him is diminishing quickly.  

 

 

[sturt]

5 hours ago, Final_quest said:

I don’t agree that every roster

"Every," no. I absolutely agree there are no absolutes here.

But the math says "on average, this is what you should anticipate."

Can you not even agree with the math? (No need to answer that. You're just emotionally where you're at. You're a fan. You have that right. But trends are objective measures, and not a matter of emotions.)

 

Thus, on average, we should anticipate

Trae won't see his ceiling for 3-ish  years yet

Capela at his ceiling now

Collins still a year or two away from his ceiling

Hunter still a year or two away from his ceiling

 

And... the others in the rotation

DJ likely to arrive at his ceiling this season

BogBog plausibly on the cusp of some decline, though arguably with improved knees, might be better able to maintain his plateau

Bey won't see his ceiling for 3-ish years yet

Yeka won't see his celing for 4-ish years yet

Jalen won't see his ceiling for 5-ish years yet

Junior won't see his ceiling for 6-ish years yet

 

5 hours ago, Final_quest said:

This is not a championship type core like Denver.

The recency bias is so dripping from your every post. Honestly. Your perspective is so lacking perspective. You resist so hard recognizing you make the same mistake that many fans of BOS made, thinking their team had hit their ceiling 17 months ago and calling for overhaul... and many DEN fans a year ago saw nothing but regression, mocking others' faith that injuries were keeping them from success, as-if excuse-making.

But I'm not the boss of you. Your perspective, your decision. All I can do is offer reason for reconsideration. Done.

[AHF]

On 5/22/2023 at 11:51 PM, sturt said:

Just for reference, the minutes weighted age of the Hawks this season was 24.9.

In 2021-22, it was 26.1.

In 2020-21, it was 25.4.

In 2019-20, it was 24.1.

 

So last year was a big step back as far as the weighted age of the minutes being played by our roster.  (Assuming you buy into that age 27-30 range being a typical player prime which I do.)

By way of comparison, the minutes weighted age for a few other teams was:

Milwaukee 29.8

Boston 27.4

Philly 28.2

Miami 27.8

Denver 26.6

 

That is a pretty significant difference between our 24.9 and these minutes weighted average ages.

[Gray Mule]

I have read, and I have no reason to doubt it, that the average male reaches the peak of his sexual life at age 23 and it goes down, gradually, for the remainder of his life.

If this is true, the next several years are his best years.  This would seem to be the same with his physical ability.  Therefore, a player's best years in the NBA would begin at age 23.  The key word, begin.  His best years would be the next ones.  This seems to fit what has been said here.

[Final_quest]

Again.  No one is saying 27 isn't the peak, it usually is.  

My actual point wasn't addressed at all.  Virtually none of the guys who actually contributed to the ECF run are statistically on an upward trajectory since that year, or they are off the team.  Therefore the premise of this thread does not apply to our situation. 

The cast of younger players who have joined the team/rotation since the ECF run need to show that they can play at a clip like that team did, remember the 27-11 stretch.  That achievement hasn't been matched since then, and Bey, AJ, Jalen, Dejounte, and Hunter need to show they can produce similar results with Trae.  So far they haven't come close.  2021 Bogi, JC, Capela, Huerter, Solomon Hill, and Gallinari is a different team/group as our current roster.  You can see with the average age two years ago being completely different than last year.  

Don't act like I'm not being reasonable.  That is the real straw man.  I'm actually addressing the heart of what you are saying.  I went player by player and showed you virtually NONE of the ECF cast is on an upward trajectory.  Then you play this card like I'm being tone deaf and won't listen to reason.  Not all players progress at a level to give you a title, it's that simple.  

A team of mediocre 27 year olds won't beat Jokic because he's the best.  The best players win titles not 27 year old players.  The NBA is always about the very top 30-35 players. 

[Gray Mule]

Final_quest    Agreed!  Talent will overcome an age difference.  Most people with great God given talent just don't realize how very lucky they are.  They sincerely believe that anyone else their size and age can do what they do.  It doesn't work that way.  Defferent people have different talent.

Yep.  All star players (True all stars, not merely fan favorites) are the very top NBA players!

[sturt]

3 hours ago, Gray Mule said:

Talent will overcome an age difference. 

Right, but Gray, Final wants to divert the conversation away from the substance that began this thread in order to continue to justify his lust for the dopamine rush that comes with big moves. His heart is set on that grass over yonder cause this grass here isn't green enough... never mind that this grass over here is still in varying degrees of development.

(Didn't read his post above. Didn't have to.)

 

27 year-old Trae almost certainly will be better than 24 year-old Trae.

That's the point.

27 year-old JC almost certainly will be better than 25 year-old JC.

And so on and so on.

That's not helpful to his preferred conclusion, though.

Can offer him a mirror by showing him BOS fans from January 2022, but he's proven he's not going to make the application... wants to deflect the line of reason away from the fact that BOS fans were then, like him now, ready to blow up the roster, certain that their players at the time were inadequate to reach the FInals.

Can offer him a mirror by showing him DEN fans from May 2022 who could only see injuries as some homer fans' excuse for rejecting what they considered to be obvious... all, based on their recency bias, and frustration that they perceived their teams were going nowhere.

None of that will register. He's dug in.

But that's okay.