2023-24 Insider Information Thread

[JustSomeGuy]

John Collins is not and will never be an All Star player. If you told me he might contribute to them winning more, yeah sure, but the hyperbole needs to be given a rest. Most of his perceived values comes from playing with an elite shot creator in the first place. He was a net negative on the court on both the eye test and metrics test. We upgraded by letting him go if for nothing else than clearing pathways to PT for talent that fits better. 

[JustSomeGuy]

@Diesel

The Belkin model sounds ideal. Problem is in the player empowerment era your best young talent will force their way out of town before to construct the right mixture. What I like about that approach is it understands that while every asset is valuable, every asset isn’t going to get you closer to the goal of winning a championship.

Talent evaluators can’t (or shouldn’t) get emotionally attached to players (as has been reported that TS did here). You can’t pay everyone and not everyone is not going to contribute to winning at the highest level. This is what got Atlanta into this situation to begin with, overvaluing it’s own middling talent. JC was known to have his limitations. He wasn’t consistent enough to be the second best player on a championship squad. We knew that and paid him anyway. Deandre didn’t even play in our ECF run and brnefitted as being “the missing piece” to a championship core which was really Trae and a group of solid veterans (more on this in a moment)

Part of being a championship program is knowing when to part with talent that’s 1, blocking the pathway to playing time by younger talent with higher floors, 2, knowing when to sell high on talent that has plateaued and 3, knowing how to supplement your young talent with veteran support. 

Someone gave the example of Golden State. Before that team won a championship they sold off productive players like Monta Ellis, Stephen Jackson, and David Lee to make room for for guys like (Number 1 bust) Andrew Bogut, second rounder Draymond Green, declining Richard Jefferson Kevon Looney, etc. Those guys all played a major role in their championship DNA. The foundations to that team weren’t laid by simply valuing guys they drafted but by knowing who did/didn’t fit. In some cases you had to sell low on guys, or let guys walk, but that’s part of the game because if you don’t have dealmaking flexibility you’re fxcked. 

When you pay everyone, yes you retain assets but lose roster flexibility and restrict your ability to compete with non-championship talent. But when nobody wants to (or has the ability to) take back their overinflated contract or give you equal or greater value in exchange, you’re stuck with guys (like JC and Hunter) who have some ability but are too inconsistent/major flaws in their game to contribute to winning at the highest level.

In our attempts to lock up our own talent for cheap, we overbid ourselves on the RFA market, not once but TWICE. Arguably those two contracts are the biggest albatross on our ability to compete right now. Like, let’s be real. Does anyone see JC or Hunter as starters on a championship level squad? Would they make the starting 5 for any legitimate championship contender? Would you replace anyone in the Nuggets starting five with these guys? What about the Warriors? Or the Bucks? If the answer is no, then stop crying over spilled milk. Which brings me to my last point.

This team needs VETERANS. I think Trae and DJ will be fine. But we need guys around them who know and can play their roles at a high level. That’s what makes Bogi and Capela so valuable to this team because they know their roles and play them well. This is why Gallo and Lou were so big on that last ECF team. Even Solomon Hill, as much as he had no business playing, knew his role. If a couple of our young dudes develop and we add the RIGHT veteran piece or two to our rotation (namely on the wings) I think it greatly changes the trajectory of this team very fast. This is going to likely come from that TPE or trade pool. Now Capela is beginning to decline, now is the time to sell on him while he has value that can return us AT THE LEAST an equally talented role player and preferably a positional or asset upgrade. Thats the FO job to find that player(s). 

Edited June 28, 2023 by JustSomeGuy

[NBASupes]

2 hours ago, JustSomeGuy said:

John Collins is not and will never be an All Star player. If you told me he might contribute to them winning more, yeah sure, but the hyperbole needs to be given a rest. Most of his perceived values comes from playing with an elite shot creator in the first place. He was a net negative on the court on both the eye test and metrics test. We upgraded by letting him go if for nothing else than clearing pathways to PT for talent that fits better. 

JC isn't Capela, his offensive metrics didn't seem to be negatively effective without Trae. I am happy for him. 

[Gray Mule]

When the Hawks went to the eastern playoffs and lasted until the finals, everyone wants to forget that it was the team of Lloyd Pierce that did it.  What?  He was such a loser.  True, he lost the confidence of the team and was replaced.  Just think of it.  The new coach kept all of the assistant coaches and used the same players and the same plans for the remainder of the season and the playoffs.  

This wasn't Nate's team.  Nope.  This was Lloyd Pierce's team and basically his coaching.  When the Hawks ran it back for the next season there were big changes.  Not on the roster.  Nate installed his own assistant coaches and his game plans and abandoned the former coach's.

This is all history now and, as much as we would like to, you just can't change history.  But you can learn from it.  Most of us here on the Squawk believe in our new head coach and trust him to build a winner here.  Our GM has had to deal with a bloated payroll and it must be shrunk to a manageable amount.  We must believe in both of these key figures.

[KB21]

7 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

If you’re looking for more certainty about what the Hawks are thinking for next season, here’s a start:

• No surprise, but guard Dejounte Murray almost certainly is not going anywhere. Several teams have called about his availability but there have been indications for weeks that he’s well-liked by Fields and Snyder. It’s also highly improbable the Hawks could get enough assets in return that would be commensurate to what they gave up for last summer (including two unprotected first-round picks).

Each of the Hawks’ three draft picks — Kobe Bufkin, Mouhamed Gueye and Seth Lundy — said Monday that Murray contacted them immediately after the draft with congratulations and advice. That surprised no one, least of Fields. “I read that as a huge character trait of Dejounte Murray,” he said Monday.

Asked whether those traits impact on whether to keep Murray, Fields said, “I want Dejounte here. That’s a guy who has a ton of what we’re trying to build more with. I look at that and go, that’s what he’s always done, even from the day we traded for him. … I’ve told (teams) that he’s a guy we want to continue to build with.” The risk: Murray is not likely to sign an extension before testing the free-agent market.

https://theathletic.com/4641917/2023/06/26/atlanta-hawks-trade-john-collins/?source=nbatw

 

 

Article I found. https://www.si.com/.amp/nba/2021/05/11/dejounte-murray-spurs-upbringing-daily-cover
 

With Patty Mills—a 32-year-old backup on an expiring contract—as the only Spur who’s been there longer, Murray has not only grown to embody the organization’s cultural tenets—long marked by sacrifice, accountability and unpretentiousness—but positioned himself as a torchbearer, someone who can teach, lead and guide the younger players on today’s team, along with those who enter San Antonio’s ecosystem in the years to come. The timing, for a proud franchise that’s currently shifting from the postscript of a ludicrously prosperous era into whatever happens next, could not be more ideal.

[theheroatl]

unpopular opinion here on squawk but I like Murray's game and think he is important moving forward as a part of our core.

[JeffS17]

8 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

If you’re looking for more certainty about what the Hawks are thinking for next season, here’s a start:

• No surprise, but guard Dejounte Murray almost certainly is not going anywhere. Several teams have called about his availability but there have been indications for weeks that he’s well-liked by Fields and Snyder. It’s also highly improbable the Hawks could get enough assets in return that would be commensurate to what they gave up for last summer (including two unprotected first-round picks).

Each of the Hawks’ three draft picks — Kobe Bufkin, Mouhamed Gueye and Seth Lundy — said Monday that Murray contacted them immediately after the draft with congratulations and advice. That surprised no one, least of Fields. “I read that as a huge character trait of Dejounte Murray,” he said Monday.

Asked whether those traits impact on whether to keep Murray, Fields said, “I want Dejounte here. That’s a guy who has a ton of what we’re trying to build more with. I look at that and go, that’s what he’s always done, even from the day we traded for him. … I’ve told (teams) that he’s a guy we want to continue to build with.” The risk: Murray is not likely to sign an extension before testing the free-agent market.

https://theathletic.com/4641917/2023/06/26/atlanta-hawks-trade-john-collins/?source=nbatw

 

 

8 minutes ago, theheroatl said:

unpopular opinion here on squawk but I like Murray's game and think he is important moving forward as a part of our core.

I'll add to this -- I would not be surprised at all if Trae is traded before Murray.  If that happened, I don't think it would be before next offseason, but I could see it.  I know part of why Quin/Landry are constantly reinforcing how much they like Murray is because the team needs him to re-sign next offseason, but I do get the sense that they actually really like him.  He's been molded by Spurs culture and seems to be a strong culture fit for what they're trying to build.

[KB21]

More from the article that I posted above:

Quote

He spent most of his rookie year slow-roasting in the G League and getting DNP-CDs. The next season he became the youngest player in NBA history to crack an All-Defensive team (Kobe Bryant, Anthony Davis and Tim Duncan are the only other players who also qualified during their age-21 seasons).

So he wasn't just thrown out there to sink or swim as a young player.

Quote

When the Spurs draft a new player, Murray immediately asks the front office for his phone number. Dinner at Murray’s home is an unofficial part of the onboarding process. He goes out of his way to impart lessons, from why it’s O.K. to spend time in the G League early on to steps they can take to earn the coaching staff’s trust and know what’s going to be expected from Day One. Murray isn’t shy about assuming that burden, and when San Antonio missed the postseason in 2020 (for just the second time since he was born), he felt responsible.

“I was hurt last year when we didn't make the playoffs because I felt like I let them down,” Murray says. “As far as carrying the legacy on, the winning culture, yeah, I think I’m responsible for that. I’m part of it. It’s a team game, but I’m a natural-born leader.”

And here is why Landry and Quin want to keep him long term.   He's a culture setter.  He's been in the culture that these two want to re-establish in Atlanta (We haven't had this since Bud).  

Quote

“His age belies his maturity,” Popovich says. “Sometimes I’ve been too hard on him—not nearly as hard as I ever was on Tony Parker, that’s for sure. But he handles coaching. He’s not affected by criticism.”

Humility.  He handles coaching.  Another reason Quin is high on him.

Quote

“There is just an approach that he has. And I think people see that and gravitate to that,” Spurs general manager Brian Wright says. “In the spot that I sit in, you’re betting on the human, their willingness to work and how much it means to them. I know that he has all of the attributes, all of the desire and all of the commitment to be an incredible player in this league for a long time. And that’s what we expect him to be.”

It's amazing how much Brian Wright and Landry Fields sound a like.  It fits.  They grew up as scouts and executives in that Spurs Culture.

[ABH]

Dj and Trae need to learn to play off the ball..like korver and curry does..they keep moving..gotta stop with the iso 1v1 stuff

[Dean Walker]

 

[theheroatl]

20 minutes ago, Dean Walker said:

 

lol Hawks Fan TV..

[bleachkit]

I don't see a KAT deal happening. For one, they would almost certainly be looking to replenish their draft assets from the Gobert trade in a deal, and we can't offer our '25, '26, or '27 picks.

[AHF]

11 hours ago, Diesel said:

With the fallout in the West, look for Utah to secure maybe 3 allstars.

Happy to do a bet:

@Diesel

If John Collins is an All-Star or Utah secures 3 All-Star spots, you win.

If John Collins is not an All-Star and Utah doesn't secure 3 All-Star spots, I win.

Winner gets to control the other's avatar after the All-Star game for three weeks (starting when the other person installs the new avatar).

[Hawkish]

DJ, AJ, and OO?!?  Please stay away from KAT.  That trade would make Minnesota a tough team going forward.

[AHF]

5 hours ago, JustSomeGuy said:

The Belkin model sounds ideal.

Good post with interesting content to parse.  But instead of doing that, I just have to weigh in and say there was nothing ideal about the way Belkin conducted himself as a member of the ASG.  He was a piece of garbage (being charitable) and dragged this team into historic dysfunction with his attempt to pull a hostile takeover on the majority owners.  Let us never mention him in a positive light again.

[kg01]

58 minutes ago, ABH said:

Dj and Trae need to learn to play off the ball..like korver and curry does..they keep moving..gotta stop with the iso 1v1 stuff

Easy to say this but, in that scenario, who's dribbling and passing?  

This is what I hope Snyder is working on because prior to now, nobody else on the team can pass well or dribble more than 1 or 2 times and playmake.  JJ seems capable but, due to iRobot refusing to develop him, he's lacking experience to be relied upon.

So, long story long, I agree with you but it's not as easy as it seems. 

[Watchman]

5 hours ago, JustSomeGuy said:

John Collins is not and will never be an All Star player. If you told me he might contribute to them winning more, yeah sure, but the hyperbole needs to be given a rest. Most of his perceived values comes from playing with an elite shot creator in the first place. He was a net negative on the court on both the eye test and metrics test. We upgraded by letting him go if for nothing else than clearing pathways to PT for talent that fits better. 

What talent that fits better would that be? Mid level salary players with a year remaining on their contract?  Your "eye test" is meaningless, just an opinion like everyone else's, you just don't like Collins.  BTW, "elite shot creator"...are you Trae's dad?

[terrell]

11 hours ago, warcore said:

this is what I hate... I just know they're going to wait a year or two when his contract looks better and get multiple 1sts for him

 

Kobe for Vlade

Multiple 1sts for JC? lol This board man..

[terrell]

5 hours ago, JustSomeGuy said:

John Collins is not and will never be an All Star player. If you told me he might contribute to them winning more, yeah sure, but the hyperbole needs to be given a rest. Most of his perceived values comes from playing with an elite shot creator in the first place. He was a net negative on the court on both the eye test and metrics test. We upgraded by letting him go if for nothing else than clearing pathways to PT for talent that fits better. 

[AHF]

2 hours ago, theheroatl said:

unpopular opinion here on squawk but I like Murray's game and think he is important moving forward as a part of our core.

I think most people like Murray's game and consider him an important piece.  There were some expectations particularly in terms of his playmaking, rebounding and defense that weren't realized for people (i.e., they expected him to be better or more productive at these things) but is clearly a good player.  The big question for me is fit (is he able to check opposing matchups well enough to be the SG next to Trae given what we saw from him defensively and his limited jump shot) and price point.  How much Murray will want for his next contract is a big unknown.  I think most don't consider him a max player which, if correct, means that it is possible he will end up getting an offer that is worth more than his play which makes people very nervous with his pending UFA because it presents a risk he simply chooses not to sign with the Hawks or that the Hawks are forced to overpay to keep him. 

That uncertainty and risk of losing him troubles some posters.  I'll add that drafting a player with our top pick that many labeled as "Murray insurance" or a "Murray clone" etc. only heightens that uncertainty for those people.

Conversely, I think there is a price point at which everyone here would love to see him resign even if we might all have somewhat different figures for exactly where that price point lies.  (Using an extreme example, if we could lock him in for $5M/year for the next decade I think everyone would unanimously endorse that and consider him an amazing value and an important piece moving forward).