John Collins vs. Ghostman.

[Final_quest]

27 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

Basically, what is being said is that the fear of paying the tax and then the team doesn't win it all is MUCH MUCH greater than the fear of being a mid team.  And that to me is what will keep us a mid team. 

There are no guarantees that any team will contend.  At some point you have to take a chance. Tony hasn't shown willingness to do that.  Maybe he will but we can only judge on what he's done so far.  At some point you have to get your team from the play-in to top-4.   

I would say prudence over fear.  Is the wise thing to pay the luxury tax for a deeper team?  Or is it to avoid the tax until you make a more credible step towards being a contender?  Pros and cons to both.  Jeff is expressing my POV nearly exactly, but appreciate everyone's perspective.  

The other area of disagreement is Tony's intention.  I actually think my concern for Tony is not if he will spend over the tax line, but will he meddle too much along the way.  I don't think he is the guy you guys portray him to be.  

[macdaddy]

11 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

I would say prudence over fear.  Is the wise thing to pay the luxury tax for a deeper team?  Or is it to avoid the tax until you make a more credible step towards being a contender?  Pros and cons to both.  Jeff is expressing my POV nearly exactly, but appreciate everyone's perspective.  

The other area of disagreement is Tony's intention.  I actually think my concern for Tony is not if he will spend over the tax line, but will he meddle too much along the way.  I don't think he is the guy you guys portray him to be.  

Great points.  Well I obviously have no idea what he's really like or his real feelings on all this.  I'm a believer in Trae.  I know a lot of people aren't so it makes sense that they wouldn't want any hasty moves.  I do think that if you look at teams that have stars Trae's age like Jokic, Luka, Booker, Ant they seem to be acting with much more urgency to acquire talent than the Hawks have been in the Trae era.  Of course that doesn't mean it's always successful or smart.  

As far as Tony goes though I'm glad he's our owner because i know what the alternative is.  He's invested in the team in a lot of ways.  I think he's had more missteps than others do and he's enjoyed the benefit of being in an Atlanta media market where he's not really scrutinized.  For better or worse i think his tenure would be viewed differently if we were ny or philly or boston but at the same time i'm glad we're not. 

I view this season as probably the most important in Tony's and Trae's time here.  Another play in, first round exit just isn't an option in my opinion.  Maybe i'm too impatient. 

[AHF]

2 hours ago, Final_quest said:

Funny, I remember him retaining everybody after the ECF run and even handing out extensions to players already under contract.  Ya'll are blaming Tony for problems he didn't create.  Tony wanted to win and only stopped handing out money when the performance went downhill. 

At that point you realize the problems on the roster were not going to be fixed by extending every rookie contract and signing guys to MLE deals.  They did the next best thing and leveraged their draft capital to bring in another star player.  Then they wisely decided to not continue down the road of trying to spend your way upwards and paying heavy luxury tax while doing it.  

What is one of our only assets to improve the team right now?  Oh yeah, the pick we got from trading Kevin Huerter.   Someone realized that you have 3 starter quality players at the same position, and maybe instead of retaining all of them and have one be devalued on the bench that you might restock your draft capital instead.  You know in case you want to continue to build your team down the road.  

It's like Tony needed to sit you guys down and explain.  Son, I'm gonna get you a new car, and you're gonna have to start making payments on it, but you also need to trade in your old car.  One more thing.  It's not gonna be ready for two weeks and they need your old car today (ie Kevin Huerter is gone before Bogi recovers).  "You're gonna make me drive mom's minivan for two weeks?"  "I hate you dad!" "You never buy me anything!"

Here's where I think you guys are completely unreasonable.  This past summer they tried like heck to bring in another key piece.  Every media outlet and our own insiders told us about it.  When the effort failed everyone blames Tony for not being willing to spend, and acts like that entire quest was a charade to fool us into thinking they would actually spend money.  Even ignoring reliable sources on this site directly telling us Tony will spend.  

All the evidence points to his willingness to upgrade the team when a major asset that makes a difference is available.  Spending money on fringe rotation players "helps your team" in the short term but it doesn't really position you to be able to get a core piece that actually moves the needle.  

All signs to me point to the fact that we won't pay the tax this year just like we didn't last year or the year before or the year before, etc.  Saying "we'll do it for Embiid" isn't a real plan to use your money to make the team competitive.  It is public relations line to sell hope to the fans without any real intent to spend that money because that "major asset" is much more likely than not never to come.  Trading for All-Star Dejounte Murray wasn't viewed as a major asset worthy of that investment - we immediately cut salary to adjust for that as we've discussed.  We already pre-cut salary to make sure if we deal for Siakam that we won't need to go into the tax this year.  

When I look at the actions taken I don't think there are terribly unreasonable but they also don't make me think we will be in the tax in the foreseeable future.  Actions speak louder than words here to me and the fact that DM wasn't viewed as a "major asset" that made the team worth investing in leads me to think the bar is so high for what would be enough that it is just very unlikely to happen.  It kind of leaves us hoping that a Kevin Garnett to Boston, Anthony Davis to LA, etc. sort of situation emerges and that we win the bidding war for that player which is something that happens two or three times a decade and disproportionately happens for big market teams with a history of big spending.

I'm not all "woe is me" because we've lived through the ASG and we are in a much better place even if our owner isn't willing to cross that tax threshold.  I am just setting my baseline expectation at this point that we will do whatever needs to be done to stay under the tax line unless and until something that hasn't happened to the Hawks in my lifetime happens.  Which is to say that I expect that we will simply keep operating with a payroll that avoids the tax for the foreseeable future.  Again, with our trade exceptions we could easily step into a tax paying position but the question is how much do I believe that it will happen and the answer is "I have zero expectation that the Hawks will actually add salary to become a tax paying team."

[Final_quest]

I'm not hung up on them paying the tax this year, or even next year.  You pay it when the situation calls for it. I'm more focused on how we can get an all star type player that elevates our team.

If we go into the tax by $8M to have Delon Wright on the bench, isn't much of a win in my eyes, but I guess there is a whole lot of people that would take special meaning from "finally paying the tax."  And yes we would be better.  

 

[JeffS17]

2 hours ago, AHF said:

All signs to me point to the fact that we won't pay the tax this year just like we didn't last year or the year before or the year before, etc.

How are past years even credible data points?  It was impossible to pay the tax during the tanking years or until Trae got on his supermax, and even then, we still had a roster full of young guys on rookie scale contracts.  This narrative does not make sense to use as a basis of logic.  The only logical position is to have conviction Kevin Heurter, John Collins, Delon Wright, or Jock Landale were worth pushing the chips in for, which we fundamentally disagree on.  

[AHF]

27 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

I'm not hung up on them paying the tax this year, or even next year.  You pay it when the situation calls for it. I'm more focused on how we can get an all star type player that elevates our team.

If we go into the tax by $8M to have Delon Wright on the bench, isn't much of a win in my eyes, but I guess there is a whole lot of people that would take special meaning from "finally paying the tax."  And yes we would be better.  
 

Getting Delon by himself doesn't make a lot of sense but getting Delon also wouldn't even push us in the tax.  We have enough room to absorb his salary today and still be under the tax line.

As for timing, I guess I see it as a distinction without a difference if I tell you that I don't think it is likely he will actually pay the tax and you tell me you think it is probable that he won't pay the tax in:

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

2022-23

2023-24

2024-25

And believe that it is an open question whether he pays it in any given season thereafter.

[AHF]

2 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

How are past years even credible data points?  It was impossible to pay the tax during the tanking years or until Trae got on his supermax, and even then, we still had a roster full of young guys on rookie scale contracts.  This narrative does not make sense to use as a basis of logic.  The only logical position is to have conviction Kevin Heurter, John Collins, Delon Wright, or Jock Landale were worth pushing the chips in for, which we fundamentally disagree on.  

There is no solid evidence in my mind that he will in fact pay the tax at any foreseeable date.  Most owners don't pay the tax.  Why would I have confidence that he will do so anytime soon?

With regard to Huerter, et al. those moves began AFTER we added an All-Star to the roster and before we saw how the team would perform with that All-Star addition.  For context, a year before we saw that adding Bogi and Gallo took us from missing the playoffs to the ECF. 

I would consider Huerter and JC to be roughly equal in impact to those two making me think that their subtraction could have very significant repercussions on the team's playoff performance in a negative way much as Bogi and Gallo had positive impacts with their additions.  If we aren't willing to invest in that kind of enhancement, then I would say that raises the bar for me in terms of the evidence I would need to see to be convinced that Ressler will actually pay the tax in a future year.  I.e., it suggests that the answer to the question of what Ressler believes is worth investing in beyond sub-tax payrolls a heightened bar that the team seems unlikely to reach as our payroll grows over time and we continue to shed players to stay under the tax.

[JayBirdHawk]

Red Pill or Blue Pill?  Tax or No Tax?

It's an art form for the Hawks.

 

[JayBirdHawk]

17 minutes ago, AHF said:

With regard to Huerter, et al. those moves began AFTER we added an All-Star to the roster and before we saw how the team would perform with that All-Star addition.  For context, a year before we saw that adding Bogi and Gallo took us from missing the playoffs to the ECF. 

Not sure why this is so hard to understand. They undercut the team's overall talent, then when they don't meet expectations say 'see, look they weren't good enough'. Of course they weren't good enough, you added worse players instead of better ones to supplement the Allstar you just traded for and giving up picks.

Part of that Huerter deal was also 'replenishing' the picks they traded away for DJ (think Landry said that). If you are already focused on recouping picks - We aren't really serious. 

[Plainview1981]

The Hawks success during the Tony/Trae era basically boils down to a few good months in a short season after a coaching change. It was cool, but brief... and it's been mostly downhill since. And no sign that anything different is on tap. Too many bad decisions.

Edited November 30, 2023 by Plainview1981

[AHF]

8 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Red Pill or Blue Pill?  Tax or No Tax?

It's an art form for the Hawks.

 

[sturt]

[Final_quest]

The power monopoly of a rich person gets people in their feelings quick.  Its like people care more about a guy paying a tax than the players and gm executing.  Tony has not been the problem, but people are triggered by money.  

Tony: I know I paid everyone after a good ECF run and even added Delon Wright.  The team still finished in the play in and got destroyed in the playoffs.
Fans: Can you get us a better player to pair with Trae and better defender than Kevin Huerter?
Tony: Even though the team failed to live up to expectations, I'll get you an allstar to replace our weak link starting SG.  Let's do this!

Fans: We want you to keep Kevin Huerter, too.
Tony: But I just leveraged three future picks to get the allstar you said you wanted.  Don't you think we should trade the guy I replaced to get a draft pick back?
Fans: You're a cheap skate who never spends or even tries to deliver a real team.  I know that you replaced Kevin but why don't you just pay for him, too? 
Tony: No

Fans: We hate you.  
Tony: Figures. 

************************************************
I'm gonna tell you guys when Tony will actually go into the tax.  It won't be to keep a player he just replaced, ie Huerter.  It won't be during the years you are rebuilding around rookie starters.  

He will spend for a guy like Siakam, (doesn't need to be Embiid or Jokic level guy).  Is Siakam really that high of a bar?  It's just gonna take someone who is more than a fringe rotation player. 


   

 

[AHF]

1 minute ago, Final_quest said:

The power monopoly of a rich person gets people in their feelings quick.  Its like people care more about a guy paying a tax than the players and gm executing.  Tony has not been the problem, but people are triggered by money.  

Tony: I know I paid everyone after a good ECF run and even added Delon Wright.  The team still finished in the play in and got destroyed in the playoffs.
Fans: Can you get us a better player to pair with Trae and better defender than Kevin Huerter?
Tony: Even though the team failed to live up to expectations, I'll get you an allstar to replace our weak link starting SG.  Let's do this!

Fans: We want you to keep Kevin Huerter, too.
Tony: But I just leveraged three future picks to get the allstar you said you wanted.  Don't you think we should trade the guy I replaced to get a draft pick back?
Fans: You're a cheap skate who never spends or even tries to deliver a real team.  I know that you replaced Kevin but why don't you just pay for him, too? 
Tony: No

Fans: We hate you.  
Tony: Figures. 

************************************************
I'm gonna tell you guys when Tony will actually go into the tax.  It won't be to keep a player he just replaced, ie Huerter.  It won't be during the years you are rebuilding around rookie starters.  

He will spend for a guy like Siakam, (doesn't need to be Embiid or Jokic level guy).  Is Siakam really that high of a bar?  It's just gonna take someone who is more than a fringe rotation player. 


   

 

What is the difference between your view and mine?  I just don't see much practical difference. 

I'd say low odds we trade for Siakam in the first place.  Even if we trade for Siakam we still won't be paying the tax this year.  We'd still be under the tax bar.  For next season, we are all just speculating.  Are we willing to pay Siakam $50M/year or does he walk to someone else who will?  Are we going to ditch Bey and others to remain under the tax line if we do?  

Again, you seem to be projecting criticism of Tony onto me.  I'm not even saying it is unreasonable that he isn't paying the tax.  But that doesn't mean in turn that I'm confident he will be paying the tax anytime soon. 

If you want to bet whether we'll be paying the tax next year I'm up for it.  That gives us all the time in the world to trade for Siakam and get over the tax line because we are suddenly serious about having a payroll in line with other teams that are legitimately trying to contend for a title.  If you think these things are likely, that is an easy bet to sucker me on.  If the odds of us landing a player worthy of paying the tax for are not good then we are saying the same thing.  We are unlikely to pay the tax in the foreseeable future.

[Final_quest]

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

What is the difference between your view and mine?  I just don't see much practical difference. 

I'd say low odds we trade for Siakam in the first place.  Even if we trade for Siakam we still won't be paying the tax this year.  We'd still be under the tax bar.  For next season, we are all just speculating.  Are we willing to pay Siakam $50M/year or does he walk to someone else who will?  Are we going to ditch Bey and others to remain under the tax line if we do?  

Again, you seem to be projecting criticism of Tony onto me.  I'm not even saying it is unreasonable that he isn't paying the tax.  But that doesn't mean in turn that I'm confident he will be paying the tax anytime soon. 

If you want to bet whether we'll be paying the tax next year I'm up for it.  That gives us all the time in the world to trade for Siakam and get over the tax line because we are suddenly serious about having a payroll in line with other teams that are legitimately trying to contend for a title.  If you think these things are likely, that is an easy bet to sucker me on.  If the odds of us landing a player worthy of paying the tax for are not good then we are saying the same thing.  We are unlikely to pay the tax in the foreseeable future.

That was meant to be mostly tongue in cheek.  My view is Huerter should have been dealt.  Tony spends when it will strategically help us.  He will pay the tax for the right circumstance.  Is that your view?

I don't want to bet blindly.  When you are taking about a situation like Siakam.  You get like one or two shots to land a guy like that.  All I will say is that he will try this year, next year, and he has a history of getting deals done when none of our other owners could. 

The 60 win team was weirdly built with guys off the scrap heap.  It was more about finding hidden gems and putting them in a system that maximized their talent.  Tony actually landed prime targets, even though they haven't ended up fitting together all the time.  It gives me hope for the future.  

[AHF]

12 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

That was meant to be mostly tongue in cheek.  My view is Huerter should have been dealt.  Tony spends when it will strategically help us.  He will pay the tax for the right circumstance.  Is that your view?

My view is it is more likely that the "right circumstance" will not come in the next few years without something forcing the issue (like Trae threatening to leave).

I'm not without hope for the future but I fully expect it will be a future where our payroll is under the tax line and out of step with the payroll of teams seriously trying to contend.

There is a very real chance that in being prudent and keeping spending in check until that special game-changing event happens that we will reduce the odds of that game-changing event ever happening.  (Example:  If Huerter is kept and starts last season like he in fact started the season then maybe we can extract materially more value from him or maybe the Hawks are a much better team.  It is not without risk but widening the range of outcomes might be necessary.)

[macdaddy]

16 hours ago, Final_quest said:

The power monopoly of a rich person gets people in their feelings quick.  Its like people care more about a guy paying a tax than the players and gm executing.  Tony has not been the problem, but people are triggered by money.  

Tony: I know I paid everyone after a good ECF run and even added Delon Wright.  The team still finished in the play in and got destroyed in the playoffs.
Fans: Can you get us a better player to pair with Trae and better defender than Kevin Huerter?
Tony: Even though the team failed to live up to expectations, I'll get you an allstar to replace our weak link starting SG.  Let's do this!

Fans: We want you to keep Kevin Huerter, too.
Tony: But I just leveraged three future picks to get the allstar you said you wanted.  Don't you think we should trade the guy I replaced to get a draft pick back?
Fans: You're a cheap skate who never spends or even tries to deliver a real team.  I know that you replaced Kevin but why don't you just pay for him, too? 
Tony: No

Fans: We hate you.  
Tony: Figures. 

************************************************
I'm gonna tell you guys when Tony will actually go into the tax.  It won't be to keep a player he just replaced, ie Huerter.  It won't be during the years you are rebuilding around rookie starters.  

He will spend for a guy like Siakam, (doesn't need to be Embiid or Jokic level guy).  Is Siakam really that high of a bar?  It's just gonna take someone who is more than a fringe rotation player. 


   

 

Why is this scenario going into the tax for Huerter?  It is going into the tax for Murray who is supposed to be more than a fringe rotation player.  That's why everyone is so hung up on it. 

Fans: it would be great if we spent the money to upgrade the 2 guard with an all star level player and had Kev coming off the bench.  Now's a good time to start going in.  

Tony: well i'll do one of those things and i'm sure we can count on a rookie or washed up vet to give us what we need off the bench.  And don't forget Bogi will be back from knee surgery...at some point.

Nate: 

 

 

[NBASupes]

On 11/27/2023 at 10:51 AM, AHF said:

Collins is still continuing his trend of struggling in +/-.

He has a positive +/- in 3 of of 16 games this season.  Total -106 on the season.

Lauri by contrast is -43 on the season so it isn't just an issue of the starters.  

Still not a huge sample size but a disturbing trend all the same.

For JC, if these were his full season numbers they would be his:

• 2nd worst PER of his career
• Worst TS% of his career
• 2nd worst WS/48 of his career
• Worst BPM of his career
• Worst VORP of his career

His rebounding has, well, rebounded but not a lot else of his game is going real well early this season.  Plenty of season left, however, and he is adjusting to a new team, new system, and new teammates.  Will see how it plays out before coming to a firm conclusion.

I don't think we've missed JC very much this season but I think we will be missing him now just like we missed Huerter badly when Bogi was hurt last year.

If we are missing anything, it's his team defense. My goodness do we miss his team defense. 

JC salary is just too much of a bust. He should be making MLE max. 12 mil per. Making 25 million per is absolutely insane for a guy that should be a 6th if he's used to his best.

[JayBirdHawk]

3 hours ago, macdaddy said:

Fans: it would be great if we spent the money to upgrade the 2 guard with an all star level player and had Kev coming off the bench.  Now's a good time to start going in.  

ALL THIS!! 

[JayBirdHawk]

Meanwhile, JC seems to have normalized after struggling early. 

Jazz have 23 wins, 7-3 in their last 10 games.

Hawks have 18 wins, 4-6 in their last 10 games, with 2 of those wins on last second buzzer beaters.