The Failing of Quin's Offensive Philosophy....

[Diesel]

We know that Quin would prefer our players to take 3 point shots instead of two point shots.  His theory is that over time the three point shots will win out.   Well, I would like to challenge that notion with..... MATH.

So I took our players numbers and I went to the Dieselspreadsheet and this is what I got.

DJ = Orange.  What I found is that DJ could shot more threes than twos and the philosophy would still work for him. 

Trae= Blue.  Trae could shot more threes than twos and the philosophy would still work for him.

JJ and Bey should shot more twos than threes. 

Bogi is close to even, more threes than 2.

JJ is a down hill scorer and so is Murray.  And Bey shouldn't shoot more threes than twos. 

 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

1 hour ago, Diesel said:

We know that Quin would prefer our players to take 3 point shots instead of two point shots.  His theory is that over time the three point shots will win out.   Well, I would like to challenge that notion with..... MATH.

So I took our players numbers and I went to the Dieselspreadsheet and this is what I got.

DJ = Orange.  What I found is that DJ could shot more threes than twos and the philosophy would still work for him. 

Trae= Blue.  Trae could shot more threes than twos and the philosophy would still work for him.

JJ and Bey should shot more twos than threes. 

Bogi is close to even, more threes than 2.

JJ is a down hill scorer and so is Murray.  And Bey shouldn't shoot more threes than twos. 

 

I think I know, but explain what the last 3 columns mean. 

 

[Phunkabilly]

Way too much of an oversimplification.  Snyder wants his players to take open threes when the opportunity presents itself.  The rationale being is that an open three should be a high value shot... analytics have shown that.  It's not worth passing up an open three for a potentially "better" shot, since so many things could change the calculus and ruin the possession... bad pass/dribble for a turnover... allowing the defense to collapse on a drive to the basket for a tough contested two, etc.  I don't think Quin would advocate taking a contested three when there's a wide open two available, however.

I agree with the philosophy, but I've noticed that sometimes the players will still chuck up a bad three even if they're technically open, because they're either off balanced or not set.  Bogi can be real guilty of this.  With how pretty his stroke is, there's no way he should ever be under 40%.  It's certainly a responsibility of the player to be ready to take an open shot, but there will be times when your momentum will make you off-balance, or you don't quite catch the ball cleanly, etc... in those instances, I think it's a poor choice to chuck up the shot even if you're open for that moment in time.  I don't know if Quin is yelling at players if/when this occurs, but I would disagree with him if he is.  I would be surprised if that's the case though.

[Diesel]

2 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

I think I know, but explain what the last 3 columns mean. 

 

Column 3 is attempts X percentage  = Points. 

Column 4 is  Points X Point value (3pt or 2pt). 

Column 5 = 3pt total - 2pt total. 

If Column 5 = Positive .... shoot the three more

If Column 5 = Negative ...   shoot the three less. 

[Diesel]

2 hours ago, Phunkabilly said:

Way too much of an oversimplification.  Snyder wants his players to take open threes when the opportunity presents itself.  The rationale being is that an open three should be a high value shot... analytics have shown that.  It's not worth passing up an open three for a potentially "better" shot, since so many things could change the calculus and ruin the possession... bad pass/dribble for a turnover... allowing the defense to collapse on a drive to the basket for a tough contested two, etc.  I don't think Quin would advocate taking a contested three when there's a wide open two available, however.

I agree with the philosophy, but I've noticed that sometimes the players will still chuck up a bad three even if they're technically open, because they're either off balanced or not set.  Bogi can be real guilty of this.  With how pretty his stroke is, there's no way he should ever be under 40%.  It's certainly a responsibility of the player to be ready to take an open shot, but there will be times when your momentum will make you off-balance, or you don't quite catch the ball cleanly, etc... in those instances, I think it's a poor choice to chuck up the shot even if you're open for that moment in time.  I don't know if Quin is yelling at players if/when this occurs, but I would disagree with him if he is.  I would be surprised if that's the case though.

The Problem I see is in the graph that @TheNorthCydeRises showed of Trae's shooting under Nate and Now.   Others have said that Quin limits the amount of midrange shots that his team out to take in order to make his philosophy work.  Because obviously, if you take more middy's, you take them at the expense of some of those three point opportunities (Good or Bad).  But some of these players have mastered the midrange shot.  Like DJ.  To take the middy away from DJ and relegate him to three point shots to make this theory work is counterintuitive.  Moreover, it kills the players confidence when they miss the open 3 pter and they could have stepped in and probably hit the middy.   I think that's DJ's frustration.   Even though he has brought his 3 pt shooting up, he has to be frustrated  when he follows Quin's game plan and we lose.   

[givemesome1ce1]

I hate the Quin’s philosophy is literally simplified to just “take threes” when he also constantly talks about going to the rim. Why do people ignore this constantly? It’s probably one of the reason why Bey’s numbers tank because he not only has to take the responsibility of shooting threes but ALSO driving to the rim to compensate for the fact that literally no one else on the team other than Trae can do it. 
 

Anyway, like @Phunkabilly said, Quin wants players to take open threes when available. You’re making it seem like Quin wants them to only shoot threes only and all the time (a D’Antoni thing). Ultimately it’s a math thing. Threes is more than two. The midrange, no matter how good you’re at it, is the toughest shot in basketball especially contested. If a team loads up on a bunch of shot attempts from three, there is a very realistic chance they will win just on shot variance alone. It doesn’t matter how good the team of midrange shooters are. We almost lost against the raptors last night despite dominating them in the paint because they shot 50% from three. In the end, Math is gonna win. 3 is more than 2. It’s not an attractive answer, but Quin is going for the best and easiest shots to create the more efficient offense possible (going to the rim and threes). 
 

Obviously for the record, if a middy is open, then a player should take it. Like i don’t get why onyeka hasn’t taken his midrange shots like he did last season. He was money from the midrange.

[Diesel]

13 hours ago, givemesome1ce1 said:

I hate the Quin’s philosophy is literally simplified to just “take threes” when he also constantly talks about going to the rim. Why do people ignore this constantly? It’s probably one of the reason why Bey’s numbers tank because he not only has to take the responsibility of shooting threes but ALSO driving to the rim to compensate for the fact that literally no one else on the team other than Trae can do it. 
 

Anyway, like @Phunkabilly said, Quin wants players to take open threes when available. You’re making it seem like Quin wants them to only shoot threes only and all the time (a D’Antoni thing). Ultimately it’s a math thing. Threes is more than two. The midrange, no matter how good you’re at it, is the toughest shot in basketball especially contested. If a team loads up on a bunch of shot attempts from three, there is a very realistic chance they will win just on shot variance alone. It doesn’t matter how good the team of midrange shooters are. We almost lost against the raptors last night despite dominating them in the paint because they shot 50% from three. In the end, Math is gonna win. 3 is more than 2. It’s not an attractive answer, but Quin is going for the best and easiest shots to create the more efficient offense possible (going to the rim and threes). 
 

Obviously for the record, if a middy is open, then a player should take it. Like i don’t get why onyeka hasn’t taken his midrange shots like he did last season. He was money from the midrange.

Our problem with Quin's philosophy... and the modern NBA (Pace and Space) movement.  Is that we don't play in transition enough to validate it.  That's why it's reduced to "shooting more threes" for a lot of us.   Our offense is a halfcourt pace and space which basically means, we're not running plays, but we're coming down... moving the ball at a minimum in order to his an open three. 

If we did more transition pushing and increased the pace, then we'd be like Indiana... #1.  #2, we would create more opportunitys to attack the rim or move the ball for a more open shot. 

The other problem is you have to have good shooters to make it work.   Pace and Space won't take off if most of your players shoot under 35%..  and that's where we are.   You can just look at where our players came from and have some knowledge of how well they will do with Pace and Space.

1.  Trae came from OK but he can run anything. 

2.  DJ coming out of Pop's system sees Pace and Space as foriegn.

3.  DHunt probably hates the hell out of Pace and Space because in UVa it was ball control, slow the game down.

4.  Clint played with the Rockets who were the leaders of Pace and Space when he was there. 

5.  JJ has no identity. Didn't play enough in college. 

6.  Who in the Hell knows what they were doing at USC.   I don't think it was anything like Pace and Space. 

7.  Bogi.  Bogi fits because he's a shooter. 

8.  Bey.  I don't know enough about Bey.

 

[StonedDogs]

Bring Colin Sexton back home. 

Lets get Bring Brandon Boston Jr back home. 

Lets get Rui in here 

Lets get J Allen in here. 

[benhillboy]

Playing at the 5th fastest pace with this defense is dumb.  The end.

I’m watching the Nets now.  With Simmons back and an easier schedule going forward it’s a real possibility the Hawks could miss the play-in.  They have to hope the heat continue their free fall, which will probably happen with Rozier in the fold who’s a terminal disease to their style of play.  Magic have the easiest remaining schedule in the East.  Hawks must win their two remaining games versus the Bulls.

Edited January 30 by benhillboy

[kg01]

Not to add to dies-o's anti-Snyder fever dream but am I the only one that cringes when we dribble to a player to hand him the ball then kinda loiter next to him.  Thereby allowing one guy to basically defend 2 of our players?  Bogi does this a lot.  I be like, 'what spacing is this?  MOVE, man!' 

And not to pile on, @benhillboy ... well, maybe you haven't seem my other post yet.  Trust me, it'll feel like piling on once you see it ... but lol at the idea that Simmons is 'back' and gonna spur anything resembling winning for more than a couple games at most.  Cmon, man.  Hawks got 99 problems but the Nets ain't one. 

[Diesel]

1 hour ago, benhillboy said:

I’m watching the Nets now.  With Simmons back and an easier schedule going forward it’s a real possibility the Hawks could miss the play-in.

Damnit, I meant to watch that game.  What the hell happened?  Didn't Simmons shut Markennen down?  This Joker Simmons shot 100% from the field had 11 assists and 8 rebounds???  Damn.  Let them do what they do. 

[benhillboy]

1 hour ago, kg01 said:

Not to add to dies-o's anti-Snyder fever dream but am I the only one that cringes when we dribble to a player to hand him the ball then kinda loiter next to him.  Thereby allowing one guy to basically defend 2 of our players?  Bogi does this a lot.  I be like, 'what spacing is this?  MOVE, man!' 

And not to pile on, @benhillboy ... well, maybe you haven't seem my other post yet.  Trust me, it'll feel like piling on once you see it ... but lol at the idea that Simmons is 'back' and gonna spur anything resembling winning for more than a couple games at most.  Cmon, man.  Hawks got 99 problems but the Nets ain't one. 

It’s fair to question if he stays available.  But if he does he fits very well with that squad as Cam Thomas has emerged.  
 

I totally understand the concerns with him between the ears but he’s a far more impactful player than most fans give him credit for.  All the Nets need from him is to hit the glass, push, defend, and make plus passes.  He’s near elite in all facets when he’s right.  Pressure is his main enemy, he doesn’t have any in Brooklyn.

Edited January 30 by benhillboy

[Diesel]

1 hour ago, kg01 said:

  Trust me, it'll feel like piling on once you see it ... but lol at the idea that Simmons is 'back' and gonna spur anything resembling winning for more than a couple games at most.

If he were healthy both physically and mentally, Simmons would be a great fit with Trae.  I'm hoping that JJ can grow into what Simmons was headed for.. but JJ has to be more decisive.  Again, I think his indecisiveness is a wrinkle of the coaching pace and space.   I've seen players at Alabama do the same thing.. They get the ball and get into the paint... open and back it out to take a three. 

 

 

[Diesel]

3 minutes ago, benhillboy said:

as Cam Thomas has emerged

You mean Cam Thomas has been allowed to play.   I honestly think they are showcasing Cam for a trade.   I don't know what it is but Cam has been instant points since he's been there... but their coaches have always benched him.  All the sudden with 2 weeks left before the deadline, he starts starting.  And they don't restrict him from scoring.   Cam + Simmons is dangerous because Simmons can cover for Cam's defensive flaws.

 

[kg01]

11 minutes ago, benhillboy said:

It’s fair to question if he stays available.  But if he does he fits very well with that squad as Cam Thomas has emerged.  
 

I totally understand the concerns with him between the ears but he’s a far more impactful player than most fans give him credit for.  All the Nets need from him is to hit the glass, push, defend, and make plus passes.  He’s near elite in all facets when he’s right.  Pressure is his main enemy, he doesn’t have any in Brooklyn.

 

8 minutes ago, Diesel said:

If he were healthy both physically and mentally, Simmons would be a great fit with Trae.  I'm hoping that JJ can grow into what Simmons was headed for.. but JJ has to be more decisive.  Again, I think his indecisiveness is a wrinkle of the coaching pace and space.   I've seen players at Alabama do the same thing.. They get the ball and get into the paint... open and back it out to take a three. 

 

 

Guys, I've been advocating for us to get Simmons for years.  I'm aware of his theoretical value and fit.  I'm just not sold on his health.  Plus JJ is what Simmons shld be so it's a moot point.

I disagree with yall on sCam Thomas.  I see THT and Kendrick Nunn all over again there.  

[JayBirdHawk]

17 minutes ago, Diesel said:

.. but JJ has to be more decisive....

...and assertive. 

[Diesel]

9 minutes ago, kg01 said:

Guys, I've been advocating for us to get Simmons for years.  I'm aware of his theoretical value and fit.  I'm just not sold on his health.  Plus JJ is what Simmons shld be so it's a moot point.

I disagree with yall on sCam Thomas.  I see THT and Kendrick Nunn all over again there.  

Well, JJ don't have the size or the decisiveness with the ball.   But he should get better with the latter. 

As far as Cam..  nah.. he's no THT.. I think what you have is a guy who is a helluva offensive player but he doesn't play a lick of defense.  He's actually on the right squad for that.  Simmons, Dinwiddle, and Bridges..  he has enough defensive help to not let him sink.  To this point, they have put all their chips on Johnson.   But if Ben can prove that he will be healthy, they may be able to use Johnson as trade bait because his development fluctuates.   They don't know what he will be.  They want Durant but the are getting DeAndre.  And that's not bad.. but if Thomas keeps dropping 30 and 40.. they will be hard pressed.

 

 

[kg01]

5 hours ago, Diesel said:

Well, JJ don't have the size or the decisiveness with the ball.   But he should get better with the latter. 

As far as Cam..  nah.. he's no THT.. I think what you have is a guy who is a helluva offensive player but he doesn't play a lick of defense.  He's actually on the right squad for that.  Simmons, Dinwiddle, and Bridges..  he has enough defensive help to not let him sink.  To this point, they have put all their chips on Johnson.   But if Ben can prove that he will be healthy, they may be able to use Johnson as trade bait because his development fluctuates.   They don't know what he will be.  They want Durant but the are getting DeAndre.  And that's not bad.. but if Thomas keeps dropping 30 and 40.. they will be hard pressed.

 

 

Cam Thomas is a 6th man.  Nothing more.

On Simmons, sometimes you gotta trust people when they show and tell you who they are.  He has legit health issues combined with questionable motivation to play.  There is no "if Ben can prove that he will be healthy".  That ship has sailed.  What they're doing is trying to prop him up long enough to trade him, not Johnson. 

And yes I was playing fast and loose in saying JJ "is" what Simmons should be.  Our guy has some development left to make. 

[Diesel]

58 minutes ago, kg01 said:

Cam Thomas is a 6th man.  Nothing more.

On Simmons, sometimes you gotta trust people when they show and tell you who they are.  He has legit health issues combined with questionable motivation to play.  There is no "if Ben can prove that he will be healthy".  That ship has sailed.  What they're doing is trying to prop him up long enough to trade him, not Johnson. 

And yes I was playing fast and loose in saying JJ "is" what Simmons should be.  Our guy has some development left to make. 

We agree.  Especially on JJ. 

I think Cam is more than a 6th man though.  He scores to well. He's not Vinny Johnson of the Pistons.     Dude is averaging 21 ppg on 45/36/83.    The 45% shooting is questionable but his percentages are in the areas of Bradley Beal and KCP.. only that he scores better than they do.  In KCP's case.. twice as good.   However, I would never match him with Trae.  No matter how many first they threw at us.  No defense and he's a high usage player. 

 

 

 

[kg01]

42 minutes ago, Diesel said:

We agree.  Especially on JJ. 

I think Cam is more than a 6th man though.  He scores to well. He's not Vinny Johnson of the Pistons.     Dude is averaging 21 ppg on 45/36/83.    The 45% shooting is questionable but his percentages are in the areas of Bradley Beal and KCP.. only that he scores better than they do.  In KCP's case.. twice as good.   However, I would never match him with Trae.  No matter how many first they threw at us.  No defense and he's a high usage player. 

 

 

 

Yeah, we'll have to part as friends on that Thomas guy.  I think he'll bounce from team to team til he settles in as a gunner off the bench.  He's too limited in literally every area except scoring but will never be a #1 option so it won't ever matter enough to overlook his flaws.