JJ's isolations

[exodus]

in the frequency of his isolations. Interesting article here.

Does Ben Gordon go one on one too much? This is a common complaint put forth by Gordon detractors. Since I have the means, the time, and the intense desire to find out the truth I decided to research this topic by the numbers.

First, let’s look at the Bulls perimeter players themselves, here’s a list of the percentage of times each guy goes 1 on 1 followed by the NBA percentile in their effectiveness of doing so.

Bulls players isolation usage and effectiveness:

John Salmons 25.65% / 51%

Ben Gordon 20.34% / 69%

Derrick Rose 14.24% / 47%

Luol Deng 9.09% / 6%

Kirk Hinrich 9.02% / 52%

What does this mean? Well first, it means supporting John Salmons to take over for Ben Gordon because Gordon goes one on one too much is ridiculous. Salmons goes one on one more and is a lot worse at it. It also means those who feel Rose is the best scorer in an isolation appear to be wrong. His 47th percentile in the league makes him an average scorer one on one.

Luol Deng should never have isolation opportunities as his numbers are scary bad, and Kirk Hinrich looks like he does a decent job for the limited chances he has. This also backs up my assertion that the Bulls were better off giving the ball to Gordon at the end of a game than Rose as Gordon was a substantially better scorer in an isolation situation.

Now, looking at these numbers you could certainly argue that Gordon stops the ball more than Hinrich, so those who feel Hinrich would facilitate better ball movement than Gordon would appear to be correct. Whether that ball movement facilitates more scoring than Gordon is certainly debatable given how successful Gordon was in the isolation role though.

Looking at the Bulls players is fine and dandy, we can learn something about how the Bulls operated as a team, however, I don’t want to stop there. Let’s take a look at how Gordon matches up with the rest of the league. The following is a list of every team’s best perimeter scorer except for teams which have no real perimeter threats and only have guys who just shoot kick outs. The list contains 37 different players. Of that group, Pierce, Martin, and Redd didn’t have a percentile. I believe in the case of Redd/Martin it was due to not enough games played with Pierce it appeared his possessions weren’t logged correctly. The list is ordered in terms of how frequently the players used isolation in their game.

Usage and effectiveness of isolation around the league:

Kobe Bryant: 32.45% / 84%

Joe Johnson: 30.66% / 72%

Carmelo Anthony 30.28% / 47%

Brandon Roy: 29.33% / 87%

Caron Butler: 28.68% / 58%

Corey Maggette: 28.52% / 83%

Tracy McGrady: 28.12% / 35%

Stephen Jackson: 27.55% / 73%

John Salmons: 25.65% / 51%

Baron Davis: 25.07% / 38%

Allen Iverson: 24.52% / 41%

Jamal Crawford: 23.6% / 43%

LeBron James: 22.78% / 69%

Paul Pierce: 22.22% / NA

Deron Williams: 22.2% / 88%

Dwyane Wade: 20.59% / 91%

Vince Carter: 20.45% / 73%

Ben Gordon : 20.34% / 69%

Kevin Martin: 19.38% / NA

JR Smith: 19.16% / 74%

Michael Redd: 19.08% / NA

Kevin Durant: 18.49% / 42%

Andre Iguodala: 17.58% / 40%

Randy Foye: 16.49% / 54%

Josh Howard: 16.45% / 43%

Russell Westbrook: 16.16% / 37%

Eric Gordon: 15.69 / 46%

Gerald Wallace: 15.17% / 46%

Manu Ginobili: 15.13% / 88%

Nate Robinson: 14.72% / 68%

OJ Mayo: 14.48% / 62%

Chris Paul: 13.17% / 62%

Danny Granger: 12.04% / 79%

Steve Nash: 10.61% / 94%

Rip Hamilton: 10.51% / 34%

Jason Terry: 7.77% / 55%

Ray Allen: 4.56% / 86%

Results:

In terms of how often the players used isolation play Gordon ranked 18 out of 37 which is basically right in the middle of the list. In terms of effectiveness he ranked 14 out of 34 which is in the upper middle portion of the list. In terms of overall scoring rate he ranked 14 out of 34 on this list.

So is Gordon selfish? It would not appear so. His scoring rate and effectiveness both were greater than his use of isolation relative to his peers even if all three of the NA players were to have greater efficiency than Gordon as isolation players.

It would appear that Gordon uses an appropriate amount of isolation plays for a big time scorer and for the effectiveness in which he performs in those situations relative to his peers and that complaints about Gordon using too much one-on-one are simply out of line with what the rest of the good scorers in the league use.

It's also worth noting the majority of two guards whom most people would agree are clearly better than Gordon (Roy, Wade, Kobe, Joe Johnson) all use more isolation than Gordon, with only Wade being close to Gordon's rate while the other three far exceed his isolation usage. Of the players most frequently compared to Gordon Ray Allen has almost no isolation usage (gets most of his shots as a spot up shooter or coming off screens) while Redd has a very similar rate of isolation usage.

What to take from these numbers is up to the individual. They show me that Gordon definitely uses isolation plays quite a bit. There is no denying that fact, and the complaints about Gordon using too much isolation clearly stem from the fact that he does go to the iso quite a bit. However, the numbers also bear out that his usage of isolation is well within the bounds of what other quality shooting guards use especially given his effectiveness as an isolation player. What is scariest is the amount of people clamouring for John Salmons to start at shooting guard who claim Ben Gordon is a ball stopper given that Salmons use a significantly higher percentage of isolation plays at a significantly lower rate of effectiveness.

http://www.bullspodcasters.com/index.php?o...9&Itemid=67

[Supporter]

This thing is so wrong its not even funny. :kickcan:

[hawkman]

JJ received a lot of criticism this postseason, but the fact is that Woody simply wore him out by having him have to create almost every single time. We hardly ever made anything easy for the guy like other teams do for their stars. Leading in minutes + constant iso offense is the reason JJ has not been the "old" JJ. My memory ain't that short or selective. I remember the "dynamic" Joe Johnson and I believe that JJ is very much that same player today, Woody just has to lighten the unreasonable load he's been putting on him. The guy is only 28 and should have plenty left in the tank. Remember, JJ NEVER had a problem getting into the lane nor did he have those long scoring droughts until lately, so there has to be a logical reason for his struggles.

[DrReality]

It never has been funny. Pivotol year for the Hawks in so many ways and cheif amongst them is the offensive issue. I think if we don't make some changes in this area we take a step backward.

[MaceCase]

That is damning evidence and further reason why people should get off Joe's back. People talk about how our only "accomplishment" this post season was beating a one man team in Miami but apparently the stats show that they actually run an offensive system to get their star open. He was asked almost a full 10% less to go one on one than Joe even though his team is considered by all here to have less talent than ours.

[frosgrim]

This thing is so wrong its not even funny. :kickcan:

Please enlighten us to your wisdom.

[frosgrim]

That is damning evidence and further reason why people should get off Joe's back. People talk about how our only "accomplishment" this post season was beating a one man team in Miami but apparently the stats show that they actually run an offensive system to get their star open. He was asked almost a full 10% less to go one on one than Joe even though his team is considered by all here to have less talent than ours.

I agree. Those data certainly indicate that JJ is used way too much in iso, escpecially for his relative success rate (e.g. compared to Bryant, Roy, Wade).

It would just be so nice to have an offensive system that takes some of the load off of Johnson and allows the Hawks younger players to develop their games. All 3 of our developing forwards have stagnated in offensive development. If you really look at them, only Marvin really added something between last season and this one, that is pathetic and has to be changed.

Smith looks like he has some moves he could use, but since he's parked outside the lane, he can't get the in game learning experience. Horford doesn't seem to have a move, but since plays are rarely run for him, how do we really know?

Sigh, just more evidence to move on from Woodson.

[Sothron]

We have no offense outside of isolation and some perimeter passing from the key to the baseline to try and free up a three open shot. I do not have the stats but I would love to know what percentage of our offense goes into the low post. It has to be the bottom in the league. We make zero effort to score in the low post which means the other team can simply run at shooters for four quarters and close out, making it difficult to score. That is exactly what the Cavs did and we never adjusted.

I would love to see Woodson canned and a guy like Fratello brought back.

[coachx]

I would love to see Woodson canned and a guy like Fratello brought back.

That would be beautiful with a Fratello and Hubie swan song.

Good too see your back on board !

[hawkman]

That would be beautiful with a Fratello and Hubie swan song.

Good too see your back on board !

Hubie would be perfect were it not for his health. His analysis during the game is spot on and he REALLY knows the game. Do you remember what he did with the Grizz? He puts his players in a position to succeed. The board has been overly critical of JJ, Horf, Smoove, and even Bibby. I truly believe we have the talent to be a really good team but we are limited by coaching. We have to make it easier on the players rather than forcing them to create every single time down the court.

Edited May 15, 2009 by hawkman

[buckeye242424]

Hubie would be perfect were it not for his health. His analysis during the game is spot on and he REALLY knows the game. Do you remember what he did with the Grizz? He puts his players in a position to succeed. The board has been overly critical of JJ, Horf, Smoove, and even Bibby. I truly believe we have the talent to be a really good team but we are limited by coaching. We have to make it easier on the players rather than forcing them to create every single time down the court.

Is Hubie sick?

[coachx]

Is Hubie sick?

When retired from the Grizz he cited health related issues but never was specific. At his age an 82 game season, with 100 practices, cross country travel, and the headaches of dealings with today's player wear down a now 76 year old down man.

I would love to see him in an advisory role to Fratello where he may not have to travel on every long road trip........kind of how Tex Winter sat behind the bench in an advisory role for Phil Jackson......as Tex aged and could no longer be in the bench all the time.

Edited May 15, 2009 by coachx

[buckeye242424]

He is just old. At that age an 82 game season, with 100 practices, cross country travel, and the headaches of dealings with today's player wear a 76 year old down.

I would love to see him in an advisory role to Fratello where he may not have to travel on every long road trip........kind of how Tex Winter sat behind the bench in an advisory role for Phil Jackson......as Tex aged and could no longer be in the bench all the time.

Ok. Thanks.

Dude still has a strong grasp of the game, that's for sure. By far, the most knowledgeable color man I've heard during this year's playoffs.

[Sothron]

That would be beautiful with a Fratello and Hubie swan song.

Good too see your back on board !

Thanks. :cheers:

And yes, I'd love to see Fratello back, Hubie is a great coach but his age and health concerns are going to keep him in retirement I believe.

[mrhonline]

Wow, is Steve Nash a smart player, or what?

[TroyMcClure]

Ok. Thanks.

Dude still has a strong grasp of the game, that's for sure. By far, the most knowledgeable color man I've heard during this year's playoffs.

dude, how old are you? Most knowledgeable this year? It's not like he is fresh on the scene. He's been the most knowledgeable color guy for about 20 years! Fratello would be perfect.

[Diesel]

dude, how old are you? Most knowledgeable this year? It's not like he is fresh on the scene. He's been the most knowledgeable color guy for about 20 years! Fratello would be perfect.

I don't think Fratello would be perfect. I think he'd be nostalgic. I think he'd be better than Woody. But not perfect. My fear with Fratello is that he'd slow us down.. Just like he did with Cleveland, Just like he did with the Griz. He's an inside out half court coach which is a blessing, but the curse is that he doesn't know how to force breaks. IN Cleveland he had Miller and Knight as PGs, Wesley Persons, some running forwards (I want to say Phils) but because he had Kemp, he got those guys to walk it up and pass it in to Kemp. It was great for Kemp... and I believe he'd be great for Horf because once somebody puts Horf at PF, they will make him into a beast.... The problem is that it kills the identity of the team. He had the same problem in Memphis with Gasol.

I think closer to perfect may be Avery Johnson. Hate to say it but AJ wasn't given a fair shot by Cuban. Aj preached defense and got Dirk to buy it... Plus AJ is a discipline guy (Fratello too). I just don't see AJ slowing us down.

[buckeye242424]

dude, how old are you? Most knowledgeable this year? It's not like he is fresh on the scene. He's been the most knowledgeable color guy for about 20 years! Fratello would be perfect.

29. Yes. Most knowledgeable this year. No he's not fresh on the scene, hence the word I used "still".

[hawkman]

I don't think Fratello would be perfect. I think he'd be nostalgic. I think he'd be better than Woody. But not perfect. My fear with Fratello is that he'd slow us down.. Just like he did with Cleveland, Just like he did with the Griz. He's an inside out half court coach which is a blessing, but the curse is that he doesn't know how to force breaks. IN Cleveland he had Miller and Knight as PGs, Wesley Persons, some running forwards (I want to say Phils) but because he had Kemp, he got those guys to walk it up and pass it in to Kemp. It was great for Kemp... and I believe he'd be great for Horf because once somebody puts Horf at PF, they will make him into a beast.... The problem is that it kills the identity of the team. He had the same problem in Memphis with Gasol.

I think closer to perfect may be Avery Johnson. Hate to say it but AJ wasn't given a fair shot by Cuban. Aj preached defense and got Dirk to buy it... Plus AJ is a discipline guy (Fratello too). I just don't see AJ slowing us down.

I'm starting to warm up to the idea of Avery Johnson being the next coach. I'm no Woody hater, in fact I kinda think he's improved as a coach and a vocal leader for this team, but the team can't improve if he continues his current offensive mindset. But I fear that with us making it to the 2nd round this postseason, Woody will be here for at least another season. But if he does somehow get let go, while I'm pretty sure the media will make it seem like the organization is crazy and inept, most of those who look beyond the numbers will understand, including myself. Hopefully, Sund at least gives a coaching change some thought rather than just quickly dismissing because we made it to the second round.

[coachx]

Why do people waist time on Avery ?

He is owed $4 mill in 09-10 and 10-11 from Cuban. If he takes a job he looses the money.

The ASG are paying Woody $2mill right now. You really think they want to may $6 mill (+) to head coaches next year ?

If the ASG offered Avery $4 mill a year...... Avery would be coaching for free for 2 the next seasons b/c he would make $4 mill not to coach for the next 2 season from his Dallas contract.

Avery is not coaching anywhere ! Why waste the time ?

I bet Fratello, Collins, Cheeks, Porter, or VanGundy would take the job for $2 mill and run with it ! Spend your time and energy on people who actually make sense in reality.

Edited May 15, 2009 by coachx