Hollinger - Comparins Atlanta/Pho/Den - Top 3 Offenses

[AHF]

Hollinger posted this interesting article on the different approaches used by the top offenses in the league this season based on points per possession. Very nice to see the Hawks in an article like this. (Yes, I still want some greater versatility but that doesn't mean I can't enjoy the offensive improvements we have seen in the meantime.)

Just as there's more than one way to skin a cat, there's more than one way to run a successful offense in the NBA. The past three days provided ample evidence of that for me. In that time I've watched Denver, Phoenix and Atlanta -- the league's three most successful offensive teams this season -- roll to home victories with very different styles.

While the reigning conference champions, the Lakers and Magic, get all the attention for their offensive weaponry, those two teams are actually 12th and fifth in the league, respectively, in offensive efficiency. The league's third-best team in points per game, Golden State, also ranks down the offensive efficiency charts (21st) once we rate teams on a per possession basis.

Instead it's the Nuggets, Suns and Hawks -- three teams generally viewed as second-tier contenders -- that are giving the rest of the league a how-to manual on offense thus far. Moreover, they've done so in three different ways. Let's take a look:

• The volume approach: After Wednesday night's 110-97 win over Memphis, the Hawks have nudged ahead of Phoenix as the league's most efficient offense by .004 of a point. This is despite the fact they aren't breaking any records for accuracy: The Hawks are just 10th in the NBA in true shooting percentage at 55.3 percent. Break it down further and it's a pretty average résumé: Atlanta is eighth in field goal percentage, 12th from behind the 3-point line and below the league average in drawing free throws.

So how are they leading the league in offense? It's simple -- they don't shoot better, they simply shoot more often. The Hawks are the league's only team averaging more than a shot per possession (where "shots" are defined as field goal attempts plus 0.44 times free throw attempts), so even though they aren't as accurate, their volume approach pays dividends.

Atlanta generates numerous shot attempts with a two-pronged approach. First, they crash the boards -- the Hawks' offensive rebound rate of 30.4 is third best in the league. But it's not because of whom you might suspect: Big men Josh Smith and Al Horford have pretty ordinary offensive rebounding numbers.

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Instead, the Hawks are so good on the offensive boards for two reasons. First, because of their size on the wings -- both Joe Johnson and Marvin Williams rate well above the norm in offensive rebounds. Second, and perhaps more importantly, is the prodigious effort of their frontcourt reserves -- Zaza Pachulia ranks ninth among centers in offensive rebound rate, Joe Smith is sixth among power forwards and Maurice Evans is 18th among small forwards.

The other key to Atlanta's approach is it rarely turns it over. In fact, the Hawks' turnover rate of 20.0 is by far the lowest in the league. This is a testament to the ability of the Hawks' guards to create shots. Jamal Crawford and Johnson may not always generate high-percentage looks, but because they can create a shot at any time they often squeeze one off instead of forcing a ball into traffic. Horford helps here, too: His turnover rate is among the lowest at the center position despite the fact he often dribbles the ball to start transitions.

Additionally, Atlanta's up-tempo style also helps reduce turnovers, as the Hawks often can get a quick shot up with only one or two passes. Wednesday night was a good example, as the Hawks scored 31 fast-break points but had only 14 turnovers. Atlanta also corralled 19 offensive boards on 48 misses, helping the Hawks roll past the Grizzlies despite shooting a lower percentage and attempting fewer tree throws than their opponent. The key? As per usual, Atlanta took 17 more shots.

• The accuracy approach: OK, the Hawks represent one extreme. At the other, we have Phoenix. The Suns don't worry much about offensive rebounding, ranking just below the league median in offensive rebound rate. Turnovers aren't a big concern for them, either -- in fact the Suns are only 20th in turnover rate. Because of those two things, Phoenix takes fewer shot attempts per possession than the league average.

The Suns succeed, however, by doing more with those shots than any team in the league. Phoenix ranks tied for second in the NBA in field goal percentage and first in 3-point percentage; combine the two and the Suns are miles ahead of the league in true shooting percentage at 58.5 percent.

It all starts with Steve Nash, and I'm not just talking about his passing. He gets so much attention for his clever playmaking that people ignore what a spectacular shooter he is and how much he boosts the Suns' marks across the board. Nash's annual quest to join the league's 50-40-90 club is off to a strong start, as he currently boasts marks of 53.0 percent shooting from the floor, 45.6 percent on 3s and 94.1 percent from the line.

Amazingly, Nash is just one of six players on the Suns who are shooting 40 percent or better on 3-pointers; Goran Dragic, at 39.2 percent, is threatening to become the seventh. The team mark of 43.3 percent from 3 leads the league and will set a new NBA record if they keep it up. (The 1996-97 Hornets currently hold the mark at 42.8 percent.) Phoenix gets 3-point shooting from every key player except Amare Stoudemire; even Grant Hill -- a career 28.5 percent shooter from 3 -- has had success (42.9 percent) in his forays beyond the arc.

Stoudemire, however, may be the biggest story going forward. Despite shooting 55.9 percent from the floor and being one of the scariest players for Suns opponents, he's off to a middling start by his recent standards. Stoudemire averages just 19.6 points per game, with more turnovers and fewer rebounds than his historic norms.

In the Suns' 116-104 win over San Antonio on Tuesday, though, we saw some of the explosiveness of the old "Stat" -- most notably on a fourth-quarter pick-and-roll when he caught a pass from Nash near the top of the lane and then soared over Tim Duncan for a dunk and a foul. That's something Stoudemire did with regularity in recent seasons, but we've seen less of it so far because he's still playing his way back into shape after retina surgery.

Should Stoudemire revert to the high-50s shooting, high-20s scoring force he was two years ago, then the Suns' opponents will really have reason to shudder. The team is already a devastating offensive force because of its ridiculous outside shooting accuracy. Throw in the Stoudemire of yore and they become basically unguardable.

• The bulldozer approach: Atlanta succeeds with sheer volume, the Suns with pure accuracy. Denver, which boasts the league's third-ranked offense, takes a very different approach. The Nuggets don't have the league's most accurate shooters, nor ones that shoot the most frequently. Ranking ninth in shooting percentage, 19th in 3-pointers per game and below the league average on the offensive boards, you wouldn't expect them to be an overpowering offensive team.

But they are, and it's because they do one thing incredibly well: get to the free throw line. Denver averages a whopping 33.3 free throw attempts per game, nearly five more than any other team. Moreover, the Nuggets also are the best at converting once they get to the stripe, shooting a league-leading 81.0 percent.

When I talked to Nuggets coach George Karl before Denver's game against Oklahoma City on Monday, he said he showed his team before the season how many more points they would score if everyone on the team matched their career highs from the free throw line. Apparently, his tactic worked, as every key Nugget is at or near his career best.

One player in particular has boosted Denver's averages: Carmelo Anthony. Melo's 87.9 percent mark from the line vastly exceeds his 80.1 percent career average, and given that he gets to the line nearly 10 times a game, it's made an impact on the Nuggets' overall numbers.

Along with Anthony, three other Nuggets have impressive free throw rates, which explains why the team gets to the line so often. Guard Chauncey Billups and centers Nene and Chris Andersen all average better than a free throw attempt for every two field goal attempts. Andersen, in fact, trails only Orlando's Dwight Howard in this category, with 88 foul shots on just 85 field goal tries. With Billups shooting 90.0 percent at the stripe and Andersen a career-best 75.0 percent, the Nuggets have maximized their knack for getting to the line by converting once they're there.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-091217

Edited December 17, 2009 by AHF

[GameTime]

I have to commend Woody on just letting them run freely out there.

[spotatl]

Ok... who can admit that Woodson has done a good job with the offense this year?

[Joker]

[Sothron]

We are almost taking full advantage of what our players can do. I do think we should be more aggressive at going to the hole and getting fouled but our offense has been almost perfect in regards to the players and their respective skill levels this year.

[macdaddy]

I'm a Woody detractor but I'm giving him lots of props so far this year.

Its an interesting article and i'm glad that of the 3 approaches we are the ones with a good offense because of rebounding and protecting ball rather than because we have some guys shooting 10 points over their career 3 point shooting average. Not sure that's something to bank on to carry through the season.

[Frenzy]

wow we have the League's most efficient offense? Nicceee

[Atlantaholic]

I'm a Woody detractor but I'm giving him lots of props so far this year.

Its an interesting article and i'm glad that of the 3 approaches we are the ones with a good offense because of rebounding and protecting ball rather than because we have some guys shooting 10 points over their career 3 point shooting average. Not sure that's something to bank on to carry through the season.

Agreed

[spotatl]

Come on AHF- lets hear you tell everyone that the Hawks should scrap their offense and run the ball more through Josh SMith and Horford.

[AHF]

Come on AHF- lets hear you tell everyone that the Hawks should scrap their offense and run the ball more through Josh SMith and Horford.

I'll give you 20 quotes where I said we need to have a Plan B beyond our isolation half-court offense. I'll find quotes where I say that an isolation system is not a good fit for our frontcourt's skillset, a position that I don't think you have directly addressed so I am not sure if we disagree on that.

I'll be happy to that if you can find one quote from this season where I said the 2009-10 Hawks should stop running any isos and should scrap their offense like you claim here. I know you can tell the difference between saying we need a backup plan and we need to scrap the current system and are deliberately misrepresenting this over and over. (I prefer to think that is the case than that you are doing this in good faith but simply don't understand the difference).

Enjoy the strawmen you apparently can't get enough of. I will be cheering for the Hawks and hoping they come up with a Plan B so they have a countermove in the playoffs when our second round opponent starts to stifle our isolation system.

[arhawkfan]

A plan B is needed. The Lakers have more then one option and dont iso Kobe every time. Iso Lebron is what got the CAVS beat last year.

[spotatl]

The Lakers plan B is Pau Gasol. THeir plan C is Andrew Bynum. If you want to tell me that the Lakers aren't utilizing those guys right then absolutely thats a valid POV. But the Hawks don't have a Gasol on the roster. The lack of options is a GM problem, not a coaching problem.

Edited December 17, 2009 by spotatl

[Crank]

Our plan B is the screen and roll. With Crawford we now have the option of spreading the floor bringing a BIg Z or Shaq out to defend the screen and actually having someone that can use it to go right to the basket and either score or feed the bigman for a jumpshot or dunk . I like the way we matchup this year with any of the top teams in the east because any of those teams that put all of there focus into stopping iso Joe this year will lose .

[benhillboy]

I don't have to look at Hollinger's numbers to know that Denver and Phoenix cannot come close to our Defense, let alone the last 8 minutes where a lot of teams in the league have gotten used to packing it in because they simply don't feel like working hard for wasted possesions. Let's go Hawks. Big ups to Mo and Woody, not getting nowhere near enough credit on this mug.

[spotatl]

Actually Denver's defense has been (slightly) better than the Hawks this season. I don't know why you'd be surprised about this. Denver was also better on Defense than the hawks last year as well.

[benhillboy]

Actually Denver's defense has been (slightly) better than the Hawks this season. I don't know why you'd be surprised about this. Denver was also better on Defense than the hawks last year as well.

We have a winning record head-to-head against Denver since last season due mainly to our defense and keeping Melo under control, so I wouldn't say they have a better D than us regardless of crack numbers stat geeks can come up with. A George Karl team great on D? I think not, sir.

[spotatl]

You don't have to be great on D to be better than the Hawks. For how much people b*tch about Woodson's offense its the D that should give people worry for the playoffs.

[Buzzard]

You don't have to be great on D to be better than the Hawks. For how much people b*tch about Woodson's offense its the D that should give people worry for the playoffs.

Exactly spotatl. Our switching D has a tendency to draw Smoove off the boards and if Marvin or Evans is having to deal with a good outside shooting SF, its up to Horf and our guards to hit the boards. JJ is ok at that but Bibby, Craw, and Teague are not very good rebounders.

I do agree with AHF that we need a better half court offense; a more versatile plan B. The Celtics, Magic, and Cavs have good enough rebounders and defensive players to slow down our break and turn us into a half court team more so than most. Big Ben and the Pistons did that to some extent in our loss to them and the only reason Portland was able to stay close was because of their strong rebounders ( Pryz, Oden, Aldridge, and Outlaw).

The playoffs are a different beast made up primarily of the best rebounding teams in the league. As long as teams can keep us off the boards with our constant defensive switching they will have a much better chance of slowing down our fast break; even if they don't get the board, a good defenive minded team will challenge the outlet pass and play within their assignments.

We have a high scoring offense but it is very reliant on our opponent shooting poorly and us hitting the boards hard on both the offensive and the defensive ends of the court.

Edited December 18, 2009 by Buzzard

[MaceCase]

Our plan B is the screen and roll. With Crawford we now have the option of spreading the floor bringing a BIg Z or Shaq out to defend the screen and actually having someone that can use it to go right to the basket and either score or feed the bigman for a jumpshot or dunk . I like the way we matchup this year with any of the top teams in the east because any of those teams that put all of there focus into stopping iso Joe this year will lose .

I don't know why people don't realize that Bibby and Al run the pick and roll almost to perfection. Every time I've seen that play it either ends up with an Al layup or him getting fouled. If people even remember the game at Philly, the team froze Joe out of the offense and it was the screen and rolls that carried us through that game when practically every Joe iso failed.

We've had plenty of more wrinkles this year with our offense IMHO. Jamal spoon feeds Zaza on a daily basis with his back cuts, Teague has mastered his drive and kick with Mo for the corner 3. We also run about 5 different stacks to initiate our offense in the halfcourt which always gets our guards open and if the D over plays them they lay it off to the bigs. Sure there is still a heavy emphasis on the iso's but I feel that we've been so conditioned to look for them that we don't really realize the other plays that go on that we are successful at.

Edited December 18, 2009 by CrawfulToCrawesome

[Buzzard]

I don't know why people don't realize that Bibby and Al run the pick and roll almost to perfection. Every time I've seen that play it either ends up with an Al layup or him getting fouled. If people even remember the game at Philly, the team froze Joe out of the offense and it was the screen and rolls that carried us through that game when practically every Joe iso failed.

Most of us here do know Bibby is a good pick and roll guard. He also comes off screens for short jumpers as well as any player we have. My concern is we usually don't see that enough as a plan B 1/2 court bread and butter play.