Al Horford signs a 5 year 60 million dollar extension

[niremetal]

Alright, pretty much every sentence in this post is worthy of comment.

He is behind our $120 million star and the 6th man of the year.

True, but our $120M star can play SF and our 6th Man of the Year has spent a lot of time at PG during his career. If the guy was good enough, we'd make room for him.

That is quite different than our Center position, where there is plenty of room.

Um...we have 4 centers. That's more players than we have at any other position, including SG (since we play Mo nearly exclusively at the 3).

We have a stud playing out of position and relative scrubs.

And what possible reason would we have to think that any center available in the second round - even early on - would be anything but a scrub?

Oh, and Al Horford just made the All-Star team at center. I would bet that most teams in the league would slot him at center rather than PF given the way the NBA game is played today. This is not an era of 7-foot centers. Why the HELL people still think that being 6'10 makes Al not a true center is beyond me.

Also, I will predict with some confidence that when all is said and done, Zaza will turn out to have a better career than Whiteside, since Zaza has already had a far better career than the average second-round center. Which brings me to...

Besides, getting a borderline 1st round 7-footer and stashing him is a great move. It costs virtually nothing if he doesn't contribute and gives you a high-upside piece if he does pan out.

A guy like Whiteside wouldn't be playing much this year, but it would be a gamble that may pay off 2 years down the line.

Let's test that logic. Here is a list of centers drafted in the first half of the second round in the past decade:

2000: Jake Voskuhl, Soumaila Samake, Olumide Oyedeji, Jabari Smith

2001: Mehmet Okur, Eric Chenowith, Loren Woods

2002: Dan Gadzuric, David Andersen, Mario Kasun

2003: Sofoklis Schortsanitis, Slavko Vraneš, Zaza Pachulia, Malick Badiane

2004: Anderson Varejao (and if he's a center, then Al definitely is), Jackson Vroman, Peter John Ramos

2005: Mile Ilić, Martynas Andriuškevičius

2006: Paul Davis

2007: Kyrylo Fesenko, Stanko Barać

2008: Nikola Peković, DeAndre Jordan, Ömer Aşık, Ante Tomic

2009: [None]

Note that the only guys who have turned out to be starters (Okur, Varejao, Fesenko) were not American. The best American from the past decade was DeAndre Jordan. The next best was Dan Gadzuric. Both of those guys are 6'11. That's because Americans are more heavily and thoroughly scouted, so on the relatively rare occasion where an American center shows a glimmer of promise, odds are very low that they slip to the second round (the inverse of that is that a ton of crappy American centers are taken as a reach in the first round). It's unbelievably rare for a 7-foot American with rotation potential to be overlooked by pretty much every team in the league, which is what has to happen for someone to slide to the second round. And once he does, I see no evidence that you're better off wasting a pick on him rather than waiting until after the draft closes and signing the "best" center prospect who went undrafted (Brad Miller, Mikki Moore, DJ Mbenga).

Also, with an American second rounder, you either have to sign him to a guaranteed contract by the end of training camp or else lose your rights to him. With a foreign player, you can keep his rights indefinitely while he plays in other leagues; you don't have to pay him a dime unless he shows potential playing against other pros. That's why I'm always in favor of using the second round pick on a foreign player instead of on one of the legions of crappy Americans.

I would take $3M rather than spending a pick on an American who we'd have to sign right away, burning a roster spot while we stash him in the D-League in the hopes that he would become the next Dan Gadzuric. I would take Jason Collins and Etan Thomas over that option, too.

Edited November 1, 2010 by niremetal

[spotatl]

Also, with an American second rounder, you either have to sign him to a guaranteed contract by the end of training camp or else lose your rights to him

Thats not true at all. For any second round pick you need to only offer them a non-guaranteed 1 year contract. And even at the end of that contract they would still be a RFA. If the player decides to sign overseas then you retain their rights as long as they stay over there- it doesn't matter where they were born or whether they played college.

Edited November 1, 2010 by spotatl

[niremetal]

Thats not true at all. For any second round pick you need to only offer them a non-guaranteed 1 year contract. And even at the end of that contract they would still be a RFA. If the player decides to sign overseas then you retain their rights as long as they stay over there- it doesn't matter where they were born or whether they played college.

I misspoke when I said you have to sign him, but you have to make them a tender offer by Sept. 6. If I'm not mistaken, that becomes guaranteed if the player accepts it (and he becomes a RFA if not). If I'm wrong about that, then I'm wrong. But if I'm right, doesn't that mean we have to be willing to put a guaranteed contract offer on the table by the end of training camp or else lose him to free agency?

Even if I'm wrong on that point, that was a very minor point in my post, and really only relevant to the side issue of whether it's better to spend a second round pick on a foreigner rather than an American. I thought that was the whole reason why NBA teams so often draft foreign players late in the second round, and why there's always grumbling from agents about how unfair the CBA is to foreign draft picks.

Edited November 2, 2010 by niremetal

[spotatl]

niremetal... For second round Picks all you have to do is offer them a non-guaranteed contract in order to retain their rights. If they accept it then thats what you have them for. In practice teams will normally offer more guaranteed money in order to get them to agree to a team options for future seasons.

In practice- overseas players hate the system because they aren't normally going to give up a guaranteed contract in Europe to come over for a 1 year non-guaranteed contract in the US. Agents really hate the system- all it takes is a non-guaranteed offer but it means that 1 team has the player over a barrel and the player has no leverage at all. If a US player is drafted in the second round and would rather take a guaranteed contract in Europe compared to a non-guaranteed contract here then you retain their rights. Thats what the Magic hoped would happen with Stanley Robinson. They didn't offer him any guaranteed money hoping that he would go to Europe instead and they would retain his rights. But Robinson was probably smart to at least try and make the roster, he was waived and now he is an unrestricted free agent and can sign anywhere he likes. If he goes to Europe now, he would be free to sign with any team if he decides to come back to the NBA.

Edited November 2, 2010 by spotatl

[spotatl]

Its being reported that Horford is signing a flat 12 million per year contract which is definitely interesting. It increases the cap hit next season by 2 million dollars. Thats definitely not something a team would do if they intended to pay the luxury tax this coming season. That would mean that he would cost the team an extra 40% for no apparent reason.

[exodus]

If a US player is drafted in the second round and would rather take a guaranteed contract in Europe compared to a non-guaranteed contract here then you retain their rights. Thats what the Magic hoped would happen with Stanley Robinson. They didn't offer him any guaranteed money hoping that he would go to Europe instead and they would retain his rights. But Robinson was probably smart to at least try and make the roster, he was waived and now he is an unrestricted free agent and can sign anywhere he likes. If he goes to Europe now, he would be free to sign with any team if he decides to come back to the NBA.

Interesting stuff. I didn't know all that.

[AHF]

niremetal... For second round Picks all you have to do is offer them a non-guaranteed contract in order to retain their rights. If they accept it then thats what you have them for. In practice teams will normally offer more guaranteed money in order to get them to agree to a team options for future seasons.

In practice- overseas players hate the system because they aren't normally going to give up a guaranteed contract in Europe to come over for a 1 year non-guaranteed contract in the US. Agents really hate the system- all it takes is a non-guaranteed offer but it means that 1 team has the player over a barrel and the player has no leverage at all. If a US player is drafted in the second round and would rather take a guaranteed contract in Europe compared to a non-guaranteed contract here then you retain their rights. Thats what the Magic hoped would happen with Stanley Robinson. They didn't offer him any guaranteed money hoping that he would go to Europe instead and they would retain his rights. But Robinson was probably smart to at least try and make the roster, he was waived and now he is an unrestricted free agent and can sign anywhere he likes. If he goes to Europe now, he would be free to sign with any team if he decides to come back to the NBA.

The Spurs have been masters of this system. Not surprisingly, it was one of the Spur's disciples that bought our pick and used it on a foreign big man with upside. Sigh.

[Plainview1981]

That's alot of money for someone that is going to spend the next decade getting destroyed by Howard.

[spotatl]

That's alot of money for someone that is going to spend the next decade getting destroyed by Howard.

And the alternative was.... ??

[Lascar78]

True, but our $120M star can play SF and our 6th Man of the Year has spent a lot of time at PG during his career. If the guy was good enough, we'd make room for him.

Good teams don't play their top talent out of position to make room for lesser talent. They play the top guys where they belong and move the lesser players around or make trades to accommodate their needs. I know it's hard to remember this after seeing what our team has done year after year, but this is not normal. You don't hear Denver fans trying to play Melo at the 2 or Bulls wanting to play Derrick Rose at the 2.

Um...we have 4 centers. That's more players than we have at any other position, including SG (since we play Mo nearly exclusively at the 3).

And what possible reason would we have to think that any center available in the second round - even early on - would be anything but a scrub?

Oh, and Al Horford just made the All-Star team at center. I would bet that most teams in the league would slot him at center rather than PF given the way the NBA game is played today. This is not an era of 7-foot centers. Why the HELL people still think that being 6'10 makes Al not a true center is beyond me.

Also, I will predict with some confidence that when all is said and done, Zaza will turn out to have a better career than Whiteside, since Zaza has already had a far better career than the average second-round center.

Al Horford is not a natural center. You may disagree, but Al, coach Drew, and pretty much everyone associated with the league would agree with me. He can get away with playing the 5 just fine in today's NBA just like Karl Malone probably could, but that doesn't make him or Karl Malone a natural center.

With that being said, I'm not talking about the quantity of centers that were added to the roster after the draft, but the quality. A guy like Whiteside would not necessarily be playing this year, nor would he be guaranteed to have a better career than Zaza in any way. He would be practicing or developing in the NBDL in the hope of panning out, in other words a cheap gamble. Right now he could be on our 15 man roster without us losing anyone. We could have easily signed him for cheap this year, and then decided next year if we want to keep it going or drop him. Your % of success on low-drafted big men will be very low, but there are so few talented big men that it is worth the gamble due to the lack of skilled bigs right now.

From the basketball operations side there was no reason not to sign him (to me at least). The only reason to bring in extra cash.

I don't think this is a huge deal, but I think it was a mistake.

[benhillboy]

For a franchise that doesn't have many great moments, this is one of the best I've seen. I love Al and wish him the best as he improves his game, finds a nice suburban lot, and beats all the women off of him. Lucky guy, deserves it all. Lock up Jamal next and we're good.

Now we go on to play a team where Mo Williams is the feature? We need our starters on the bench at the 8 minute mark enjoying themselves.

[exodus]

For a franchise that doesn't have many great moments, this is one of the best I've seen. I love Al and wish him the best as he improves his game, finds a nice suburban lot, and beats all the women off of him. Lucky guy, deserves it all. Lock up Jamal next and we're good.

Now we go on to play a team where Mo Williams is the feature? We need our starters on the bench at the 8 minute mark enjoying themselves.

Did you get amnesia over the summer? That is the type of jinx they can definitely do without. This team has proven time and again they are fully capable of losing to anyone no matter how bad they are or how many key players they are missing.

[Diesel]

That's alot of money for someone that is going to spend the next decade getting destroyed by Howard.

Yeah, I guess there must be a moratorium on Center Signings then. Just stop teams from signing Centers because they may get Destroyed by Howard? What Center will Howard not destroy? I guess NJ ought not sign Lopez? I guess Boston ought not sign Perkins. I guess LAL ought not sign Bynum?

Hots, this is your most ingenuous plan yet. No team signs a C and that way Dwight Howard will get Lonely and stop playing!!! There's a great basketball mind in you somewhere!!!!

Just like there was the Jordan rules, Hots present the Howard get lonely rules.

[niremetal]

Yeah, I guess there must be a moratorium on Center Signings then. Just stop teams from signing Centers because they may get Destroyed by Howard? What Center will Howard not destroy? I guess NJ ought not sign Lopez? I guess Boston ought not sign Perkins. I guess LAL ought not sign Bynum?

Hots, this is your most ingenuous plan yet. No team signs a C and that way Dwight Howard will get Lonely and stop playing!!! There's a great basketball mind in you somewhere!!!!

Just like there was the Jordan rules, Hots present the Howard get lonely rules.

Pet peeve of mine - you meant "ingenious" and not "ingenuous." Although ingenuous would be funny there too, I don't think you actually meant "in the manner of an innocent or unsophisticated young woman."

[exodus]

Horford needs to take a page out of JJ Hickson's book. Last night he didn't play with his back to the basket at all. He faced up and either took his jumper or drove. That is what Horford needs to do, especially since he led the league in shooting from 16-23 feet last year. He hit a few of those last night. The back to the basket nonsense needs to go away.

Edited November 3, 2010 by exodus

[JackB1]

Horford needs to take a page out of JJ Hickson's book. Last night he didn't play with his back to the basket at all. He faced up and either took his jumper or drove. That is what Horford needs to do, especially since he led the league in shooting from 16-23 feet last year. He hit a few of those last night. The back to the basket nonsense needs to go away.

I agree. Al seems to play much better facing the basket. He has surprising ball handling skills and Drew seems to be encouraging him more this year to use them.

Focus on what you do well and get your points that way.

[Atlantaholic]

Al Horford's jump shot has looked ridiculously good so far this year. 5 year at 60 million looks like a bargain if you ask me. Outside of Howard there isn't a starting Center in the east who is better than Horf right now IMO.

[Joker]

Al doesn't get a whole lot of shots.