Hawks will be grounded

[HawkItus]

ESPN.com: NBA

Monday, April 25, 2011

Hawks will be grounded

By Kevin Pelton

Basketball Prospectus

Josh Smith

Josh Smith is shining in the playoffs, but he might not be in Atlanta next season.

Last Friday, we took a look at five lottery teams on the rise which could make the playoffs next season. As those teams improve, inevitably some of the teams currently in the playoffs must go the opposite direction. Instead of looking just at teams which could slip out of the postseason picture, we've expanded our list to look at the playoff teams in order of likelihood of having their record drop off during the 2011-12 season.

1. Atlanta Hawks

Why they'll slip: While the Hawks won 44 games they were outscored on the season, and point differential is a better predictor of future record than wins and losses are.

Why they'll stay strong: Al Horford's successful run as a power forward in the postseason against the Orlando Magic may be the precursor to Horford moving to the position full-time.

But as good as Atlanta has looked in the current series with Orlando, there are worrisome signs ahead. Besides the Hawks' poor point differential -- a product of repeated blowout losses, often at home -- they went just 12-17 after the All-Star break. Making matters worse, Atlanta's high payroll and Jamal Crawford's impending free agency could force the Hawks to deal starting forward Josh Smith for cap relief. Atlanta will need significant improvement in other areas to top .500 again. The Hawks will have to do it without a first-round pick, having traded theirs to Washington with rookie "he who's name shall not be mentioned" to add Kirk Hinrich at the trade deadline.

2. San Antonio Spurs

Why they'll slip: For one, the Spurs have more room to fall than almost anyone else. On average, teams that win at least 60 games drop by 6.2 games the following season.

Why they'll stay strong: San Antonio is likely to get more production from rookie center Tiago Splitter after he's had a year to adjust to the NBA and the team's system, not unlike how Richard Jefferson was more effective this year.

The Spurs might care less about their regular-season win total than any team east of the Staples Center, which made it all the more remarkable that they held the league's best record virtually the entire season and earned the Western Conference's top seed. Gregg Popovich has skillfully managed the minutes of his veteran stars, but the Spurs also benefited from some good fortune that their big three of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker combined to miss just 12 games total. Parker alone missed 26 in 2009-10. With normal health and a few bad breaks, San Antonio is likely to win somewhere closer to 55 games next season than 61.

3. New Orleans Hornets

Why they'll slip: No team in the league is more dependent on a single player than the Hornets are on Chris Paul. If he misses time, New Orleans could slip quickly.

Why they'll stay strong: In his first year as head coach, Monty Williams produced a defensive turnaround. As Williams establishes his system, the Hornets may get even better on defense.

Paul has been dazzling in the playoffs against the Los Angeles Lakers, but it's more difficult for him to carry such a heavy load over the long regular season after arthroscopic knee surgery in 2010. Paul has long leaned heavily on David West, who tore his ACL in April and might not be all the way back from the injury at any point during the upcoming season. Carl Landry, who has filled in effectively for West, is an unrestricted free agent and might not be back, further compromising New Orleans' depth. If West isn't ready for the start of the season, Paul might have to score 30 points a night to keep the Hornets competitive.

4. Boston Celtics

Why they'll slip: As impressive as their performance deep into their careers has been, Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce can't continue to hold off age forever.

Why they'll stay strong: The same thing could have been written this time a year ago and the Celtics ended up winning six more games than they did in 2009-10.

Boston has made a habit of starting the regular season strong and slumping to the finish line. That might be exacerbated as the Celtics' trio of stars advances deeper into their 30s. In Danny Ainge's master plan, the acquisition of Jeff Green at the trade deadline would provide a needed infusion of youth. However, Green has struggled since arriving in Boston, leaving the Celtics more dependent on their starters than ever. That will make things difficult if Doc Rivers feels he needs to give his veterans more rest to keep them fresh for the postseason.

5. Dallas Mavericks

Why they'll slip: While everyone worries about Boston's age, the Mavericks were actually the league's oldest team when weighted for minutes played with an effective age of 31.4 years old. (The L.A. Lakers, at 30.9, were next.)

Why they'll stay strong: Dallas has won 50-plus games for 11 years running, so it's difficult to see the Mavericks slipping too badly.

On paper, Dallas is one of the most likely candidates to regress next season. Like the Hawks, the Mavericks outperformed their point differential, which was more consistent with a 52-win team than the 57 Dallas actually won. However, this is nothing new for the Mavericks, who have overachieved relative to their differential on a regular basis since Jason Terry joined Dirk Nowitzki to form a potent crunch-time duo. Instead, the biggest threat to Dallas is Father Time. Starting point guard Jason Kidd is 38 and slipped noticeably this season, and there isn't a replacement for Kidd on the current roster. Fellow starters Nowitzki (33 in June) and Shawn Marion (33 in May) and key reserves Terry (34 by training camp) and Peja Stojakovic (34 in June) are all at an age where they can be expected to decline.

Kevin Pelton covers the NBA for ESPN Insider. He has been writing about pro basketball since 2003 for several publications, including Hoopsworld.com, 82games.com and SI.com, and he has been an author for Basketball Prospectus since the site's inception in 2007. You can find his ESPN archives here, and follow him on Twitter here.

[NineOhTheRino]

This is why I hate the media. Just lazy cheap-pop analysis.

Edited April 26, 2011 by NineOhTheRino

[Admin]

I think it was Bill Simmons (or at least someone on the BS report) before the playoffs started that mentioned that we might look to move Josh to someone like Minnesota for their lottery pick plus matching salary. If we could get them to give us a quality young player like Beasley or Wesley Johnson plus a little cap filler and their lottery pick for Josh Smith we would have to consider it UNLESS we make a deep run in the playoffs this year.

I for one hope that we do make a deep run in the playoffs this year and bring everyone back next season with a little more quality on the bench and/or an upgraded starting C.

[AHawks89]

It's like the Media tries to run the League. :beathorse:

[NineOhTheRino]

I guess we better get ready for a barrage of Josh Smith related trade talk in the upcoming weeks. Seems they (the media experts) have exhausted the Josh Smith jump shooting angle so they're working on the Josh vs Jamal angle now. What's next? Will Josh's name appear in some classified WikiLeaks file? Is josh the reason the earth is getting hotter? Stay tuned.

Edited April 26, 2011 by NineOhTheRino

[Johnnybravo4]

I guarantee you that we move Al Horford before we move Josh Smith. As much folks have a love/hate relationship with Josh, Josh IS the draw. 75% of the folks with Jersey on have Josh Smith Jerseys. The rest of the team are full of boring players. I think what will happen is that we will let Craw walk and will try to pick up someone like JR Smith for the MLE. We will then let Hinrich walk in 2012 and give Teague the job. We will probably try to move Marvin for a Mid first round pick.

[Gray Mule]

:kickcan:

Hawks are already out of the playoff picture next season. Josh will be traded and Crawford

will walk. JJ and Horford can't possibly carry the Hawks by themselves and they are the

only two players of value that we will have left. Basement, here we come!

Do tell! So this is what we have to look foreward to next season. WOW!

NOW, AREN'T WE GLAD WE FOUND OUT BEFORE WE MADE ANY PLANS FOR NEXT YEAR.

:notme:

Edited April 26, 2011 by Gray Mule

[Bawse]

Who gives a damn why ESPN thinks, these are the same experts and analysts that all picked Orlando to win this playoff series in 5 or 6 games.

[AHawks89]

Josh Smith

Josh Smith is shining in the playoffs, but he might not be in Atlanta next season.

At least the haters give Josh Smith props. Not even our own "fans" can admit that.

Edited April 26, 2011 by AHawks89

[Nicholasp27]

first sentence is wrong already, "josh smith is shining in the playoffs"

ld had to bench him 2x in 4th quarter the other day because of his play

compared to his other 3 years in playoffs, his ts is down, his orb is down, his blocks and steals and assists are down, turnovers up; his win shares, offensive and defensive, are down and he's 2/11 from 3

he's not playing horribly, but definitely isn't "shining"

[Diesel]

At least the haters give Josh Smith props. Not even our own "fans" can admit that.

That's because they look at the stats and we watch the games.

If you watch the games, you would note that Josh is a big part of the group that goes crazy when we have leads... Sure Joe and Jamal does too, but as 2 guards, you expect that. Smoove is a Sf with a bad 3 pt percentage. He has no business jacking shots.

[Blunt91]

I guarantee you that we move Al Horford before we move Josh Smith. As much folks have a love/hate relationship with Josh, Josh IS the draw. 75% of the folks with Jersey on have Josh Smith Jerseys. The rest of the team are full of boring players. I think what will happen is that we will let Craw walk and will try to pick up someone like JR Smith for the MLE. We will then let Hinrich walk in 2012 and give Teague the job. We will probably try to move Marvin for a Mid first round pick.

Teague will never be a starting pointguard and no one wants to pay Marvin's salary for the next 2 or 3years.

[DrReality]

Agreed that next year will bring a mixed bag and the decisions to be made fall on the shoulders of our GM. That's not promising. If they move JS they better get something for him to move us forward.

[Admin]

I guarantee you that we move Al Horford before we move Josh Smith. As much folks have a love/hate relationship with Josh, Josh IS the draw. 75% of the folks with Jersey on have Josh Smith Jerseys. The rest of the team are full of boring players. I think what will happen is that we will let Craw walk and will try to pick up someone like JR Smith for the MLE. We will then let Hinrich walk in 2012 and give Teague the job. We will probably try to move Marvin for a Mid first round pick.

If I were a betting man I'd be very interested in that statement!

[coachx]

I guarantee you that we move Al Horford before we move Josh Smith. As much folks have a love/hate relationship with Josh, Josh IS the draw. 75% of the folks with Jersey on have Josh Smith Jerseys. The rest of the team are full of boring players. I think what will happen is that we will let Craw walk and will try to pick up someone like JR Smith for the MLE. We will then let Hinrich walk in 2012 and give Teague the job. We will probably try to move Marvin for a Mid first round pick.

Have you been to a Hawks game recenlty ? Every one in the arena is frustrated with #5. Every time he shoots the home fans yell "NOOOO!!!" and the away fans yell "YESSSS !"

Marvin for a mid 1st round pick ? No GM is that stupid.

If the Hawks sign JR Smith and keep Josh Smith then this team is done.

Edited April 26, 2011 by coachx

[MVP23]

Didn't this guy say we wouldn't make the playoffs again after the Boston series? Then said we wouldn't improve after the 09 season. Then again in 2010. The media always writes us off. I'm used to it..

[ngc7]

this article is beyond stupid.

[Eddielives]

I guarantee you that we move Al Horford before we move Josh Smith. As much folks have a love/hate relationship with Josh, Josh IS the draw. 75% of the folks with Jersey on have Josh Smith Jerseys. The rest of the team are full of boring players. I think what will happen is that we will let Craw walk and will try to pick up someone like JR Smith for the MLE. We will then let Hinrich walk in 2012 and give Teague the job. We will probably try to move Marvin for a Mid first round pick.

No. Josh maybe USED to be the draw but he is wearing out his welcome here by making it glaringly obvious he hurts the team more than helps. If you're between the ages of 8 to 16, then you may put highlights over the good of your team. But mature fans who know a little about the game of basketball want to see this team take the next step. And that step is not going to include Josh Smith. Al is here to stay. Mark my words on that.

Edited April 26, 2011 by Eddielives

[Birdman316]

Here is my idea:

Trade Smoove and whatever else for a quality starting skilled center.

Trade Marvin for a quality pg who can come off the bench

Sign JR Smith and Re Sign Craw

You move Joe to the 3 and you start Craw and Kirk in the backcourt with Al and whoever we can get at center. You have JR Smith to be our "instant offense" off the bench. ZaZa is not a bad back up plus we hope to get a good quality back up PG if Teague doesnt pan out. To me Wilkins can get playing time at the back up 3. And Powe can get time at the back up 4. Or get a quality FA at the back up 4

Or maybe you can keep Marv and sign a back up PG. Or maybe Teague pans out

Edited April 26, 2011 by Birdman316

[Duff_Man]

I guarantee you that we move Al Horford before we move Josh Smith. As much folks have a love/hate relationship with Josh, Josh IS the draw. 75% of the folks with Jersey on have Josh Smith Jerseys. The rest of the team are full of boring players. I think what will happen is that we will let Craw walk and will try to pick up someone like JR Smith for the MLE. We will then let Hinrich walk in 2012 and give Teague the job. We will probably try to move Marvin for a Mid first round pick.

Not sure how many regular season Hawks games you actually watch, but none of the players are a "draw".