Marvin's closest comparables after 6 seasons

[sturt]

Thought this might deserve its own thread since it takes a somewhat different turn from the thread Diesel began a few days ago...

Responding to AHF's question of what might constitute "having faith in Marvin," I wondered whose careers might have most closely resembled Marvin's after six seasons...

Great question.

As-is, I see Marvin currently as a part-time starter who is more "solid" than a "plus contributor" yet who occasionally does "spectacular" things to have an impact (occasionally hits critical shots like he did vs. the Magic in Game 6, or makes a critical block as he did vs. the Bulls in our regular season win, or getting critical rebound), and has enough game to exploit certain match-ups, particularly on the defensive side.

Here's the thing that I can't get past...

I don't consider Smoove to have plateaued... and he's about 6 months older than Marvin... same for Horford... about 2 weeks older than Marvin... so I'm hesitant to say that Marvin's shown everything he's going to show. I consider myself to still "believe in Marvin." But I admit that I'm having trouble figuring out what that means.

You see, here's where Marvin was on March 3, 2009 when Sekou wrote about him...

http://www.ajc.com/s...n_williams.html

About one week later, Marvin sustained a lower back injury that knocked him out for a month.

Been looking for some recent-history comparables... these are as close as I'm finding... all were lottery picks...

Small Forward A: The guy began his career at 20, and considered to have the greatest all-around potential of anyone in that draft class. Size-wise, just a bit larger than Marvin, listed at 6-10 to 6-11, but expected to play small forward in the NBA. Played about 13600 minutes in his first 6 years in the league. WinSharesPer48 averaged about 0.082 at that point, with his highest rating being 0.134 in his 5th year. PER average at that point was 16.7, ranging from 13.7 to 18.9 (which is thought to be somewhat inflated as he had been the best player on two bad teams to that point). Though he'd had a stand-out year in that 5th year, he'd regressed some in the 6th, and there was palpable grumbling that he may be a classic underachiever.

Small Forward B: Another player began at 22... not considered an elite guy, but multi-talented, having shown himself capable both on the block and on the perimeter, and though drafted as a small forward, had set a school-record for blocking shots. Size-wise, just a bit smaller than Marvin, listed at 6-8 to 6-9, and mostly started at power forward in college. Played about 13000 minutes in his first 6 years in the league. WinSharesPer48 averaged 0.103 at that point, with his highest rating being 0.144 in his 6th year. PER average at that point was 13.5, ranging from 12.1 to 14.4. He had not distinguished himself with the team that drafted him, and they sent him packing after year 4, and the first half of his 5th year was truly horrific.

Small Forward C: Began career at age 20, and was regarded as a high talent guy who hadn't put it all together in college. Size-wise, probably the closest of the three to Marvin's frame. Played about 11000 minutes in his first 6 years, with a WSp48 of 0.111 with his highest being 0.141 in his 4th year, and a PER that stood at 14.9, ranging from 13.1 to 16.4. After that encouraging 4th year, he maintained a good PER but began descended into WSp48 hell for years 5 and 6. As it was generally understood when he was drafted that he was a high-ceiling/high-risk player, no one got too upset when he began to regress, largely because of the torrid rise of another small forward on the team whose ascension got him shipped elsewhere.

===

Marvin, of course, began at 19, ... and similar to Player A was considered to have the greatest all-around potential in his class.

And after 6 years, he stands at about 13300 minutes, so approximately what A and B had attained, though having done so at an earlier age (1 year earlier than A, 3 years earlier than B... C wasn't there until his 7th year).

WinSharesPer48 average is at 0.096, with his highest rating being being 0.140 in his 4th year, which compares just a bit better than Player A (0.082), just a bit worse than Player B (0.103), and notably worse than Player C (0.111).

PER average for Marvin is 13.6, ranging from 12.2 to 16, which compares fairly close to Player B (13.5, 12.1 to 14.4), is somewhat lower than Player C (14.9, 13.1 to 16.4), and decidedly lower than Player A (16.7, 13.7 to 18.9).

Though Marvin had a good year in that 4th year, he injured his back toward the end of that season, and then, took a step backward for his 5th season. He injured it again this past December and was out for a month. Based on the 10 games prior to the injury, there was again some enthusiasm that he was regaining some of his confidence, having averaged about 14 points (42% 3FG) and 5 rebounds. Today, of course, there is more than just mumbling that he may be a bust.

So, given A, B and C... who do you like as Marvin's closest comparable?

I'll reveal names soon, but for the sake of discussion, do your best to resist the urge to guess, or worse, try to research... :)

Followed later by...

Okay, I guess I'll spill my opinion...

I think as time marches on and if he's able to stay away from any further back injuries, Marvin's capable of achieving at a level just short of Player A...

Of the other two, he seems to track closer to B than to C...

And then, I'd put his trend line as slightly better than B.

Anyone seeing it differently, or can I assume consensus on that?

And now to spill the names...

A = Lamar Odom

B = Robert Horry

C = Tim Thomas

These are the most similar big SFs of the lottery era that I found... ie, drafted high and considered to have a similar skill set. If you find someone else you think to be more comparable, by all means, suggest him.

Otherwise... comments?

Edited June 5, 2011 by sturt

[Supporter]

All of those guys are known for something. Odom is known for being a versatile big man that can grab boards and handle the ball when he feels like it. Robert Horry is known for coming through in the playoffs when it matters most. Tim Thomas maybe the closest to Marvin but even he had some shining moments in the playoffs. Marvin is just known for dissapearing, and it's not like our offense helps him any; the point is that he just doesn't have the motor to want to be great and on this team, he has to have that motor or else he will be shipped.

[TRUEINTELLECTPLAYA]

Throwing around Pers, and win shares are easy ways to skew numbers and players true effectiveness. Odom and Horry have both been vitale part of championship teams while Tim Thomas was a fluid scorer for most of his career. Comparing Marvin to any of those guys with the exception of Thomas would be once again blowing Marvin's perceived potential way out of proportion.

[tbhawksfan]

Those guys have all played with defined roles, good coaching and superiour teamates. I still think MW can at least get back to his best numbers. Hope it's with the Hawks or we can convince someone else of this. He can play 2, 3, 4 and ba efficient on O and D. Just got to put it together and be consistent.

[Atlantaholic]

So basically, he is as good as Horry (minus every single big shot) and Tim Thomas, who were both pretty bad. Great.

[sturt]

Supporter and TRUE, I'm not sure that you're recognizing the concept here... while the interpretation of the numbers can be skewed (and either to the positive or negative), the numbers themselves are not.

The numbers are the numbers.

Doesn't mean that Marvin won't end up being completely unique from any of those guys, but these players' quantitative patterns provide the best goodness-of-fit with Marvin's trend line, and thus some better basis for prediction than any given subjective conjecture.

And, Holic, correct me if I'm wrong, but after six seasons, I'm not recalling that Horry had had any "big" shots yet to speak of(?).

Edited June 5, 2011 by sturt

[MaceCase]

I will commend you on actual usage of "BR" and I am a lil intrigued by his comparables, in fact, I'd say he has already shown some similarities to those players. Plenty are acussing him of only showing up for his contract year (that has Tim Thomas written all over it as plenty would joke that you could determine his contract status by how well he was playing) and given his clutch shooting in game 6 of the Orlando series I can see the similarity to Big Shot Bob and then there's the question of his work ethic/dedication and lackadaisical effort which would put him right next to young Lamar.

[AHF]

Diesel made the Tim Thomas comparison very early. It seems eerily insightful at this point in Marvin's career.

[gsuteke]

Marvin Williams sucks. Big Shot Bob had his place on 6 or so championship squads.

[sturt]

Diesel made the Tim Thomas comparison very early. It seems eerily insightful at this point in Marvin's career.

Fwiw... Draft Express originally had TT as their low-ball prediction... perhaps Dies beat them to it, I wouldn't know... and intriguingly indicated that they had no clue whose career represented an upper limit prediction.

Marvin Williams sucks. Big Shot Bob had his place on 6 or so championship squads.

It was always my impression that part of what made Big Shot Bob remarkable was that he was, other than his big shots, not all that remarkable... no?

[AHF]

It was always my impression that part of what made Big Shot Bob remarkable was that he was, other than his big shots, not all that remarkable... no?

Definitely not All-Star level but a no brainer starter as someone with plus defense and the ability to spread the floor. Obviously, lots of special moments with the big shots.

He wouldn't be remembered had he played on a team with average talent, though. He was a perfect complimentary player on a contender team - kind of like Derek Fisher but better D.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

I remember Diesel saying 4 years ago that Marvin was Derrick McKey . . . and people bit his head off for that comment.

PER 36 MINUTE career numbers

DERRICK MCKEY

13.6 ppg

5.8 rebs

3.0 asst

1.4 stls

0.8 blks

.486% FG

.316% 3FG

.779% FT

MARVIN WILLIAMS

13.6 ppg

6.2 rebs

1.6 asst

0.9 stls

0.5 blks

.452% FG

.311% 3FG

.808% FT

[AUhawksfan]

Wow that comparison to McKey is downright scary. I could see that more than Tim Thomas. Thomas has slightly better offense and has stepped up for PHX in the playoffs, while Marvin has the better defense but disappears in big moments.

[sturt]

Okay, let's take a look through Year 6...

Year 6 - McKey v. Williams

Age: 27 / 25

Minutes: 14000 / 13300

PER Avg: 15.1 / 13.6

PER Range: 13.8-15.7 / 12.2-16.0

PER High Year: 4 / 4

WS/48 Avg: 0.119 / 0.96

WS/48 Range: 0.107-0.130 / 0.069-0.140

WS/48 High Year: 6 / 4

I like it, though my memory of McKey in Seattle is that he played PF much more than SF (... am I wrong?)... but setting that aside, I think Marvin's still tracking closer to Horry, but the McKey line is certainly within reach.

Edited June 6, 2011 by sturt

[sturt]

Played some more with Excel, and found that of the four, now including McKey, Marvin's through-year-6 numbers best compare to...

PTS/36 > Odom (1.98 diff)

REB/36 > McKey (-0.25 diff)

AST/36 > Thomas (0.33 diff)

STL/36 > Odom (.02 diff)

BLK/36 > Thomas (.07 diff)

FG% > Horry (-0.17%)

3FG%>Horry (-0.33%)

FT% > McKey (1.95%)

Bottom line, though, it appears all of these guys' levels of success at the 6-year mark are generally consistent with Marvin, though I'd probably place Marvin currently somewhere between Horry (lower) and McKey (higher)... then Thomas' line is next closest, though slightly below Horry's, and Odom's is somewhat above McKey's.

As I've said, hopefully this exercise at least gives the Marvin discussion some more solid ground from which both sides can engage in their combat.

[Diesel]

I fail to see how Odom or Horry is lumped into this conversation.

Odom was a very good ball handler who could play Point Forward.

While not being as good a Ball handler, Horry was a reliable shooter.

Marvin's high is Tim Thomas.

Marvin's Low is Eric Williams.

[sturt]

I fail to see how Odom or Horry is lumped into this conversation.

Odom was a very good ball handler who could play Point Forward.

While not being as good a Ball handler, Horry was a reliable shooter.

Marvin's high is Tim Thomas.

Marvin's Low is Eric Williams.

Wouldn't dispute Odom's ball handling advantage of Marvin. Odom's turnover numbers always exceeded Marvin's, but his assists more than made up for that, sometimes at a 2:1 ratio even.

Shooting? Through six years, Marvin's FG%, 3FG%, and FT% averages all exceeded Horry's averages.

Eric Williams? Okay, I humored you, and went and looked at his trends through 6 years... what I found was a player whose highest PER for any year was below Marvin's average PER... and a player whose WS/48 only crested above .069 once in those six years, while Marvin only had one of the six below .069, and a high of 1.4... that's not even barely in the ballpark.

Hey, Dies... I've tried to explain this to ya twice now. Your words were "I fail to see," and clearly that's the case... you aren't getting the concept. I hate to be rude, but you started it... move on, unless you have something valid/relevant to add.

Edited June 6, 2011 by sturt

[Diesel]

Wouldn't dispute Odom's ball handling advantage of Marvin. Odom's turnover numbers always exceeded Marvin's, but his assists more than made up for that, sometimes at a 2:1 ratio even.

Shooting? Through six years, Marvin's FG%, 3FG%, and FT% averages all exceeded Horry's averages.

Eric Williams? Okay, I humored you, and went and looked at his trends through 6 years... what I found was a player whose highest PER for any year was below Marvin's average PER... and a player whose WS/48 only crested above .069 once in those six years, while Marvin only had one of the six below .069, and a high of 1.4... that's not even barely in the ballpark.

Hey, Dies... I've tried to explain this to ya twice now. Your words were "I fail to see," and clearly that's the case... you aren't getting the concept. I hate to be rude, but you started it... move on, unless you have something valid/relevant to add.

Through 6 years doesn't explain anything.

Robert Horry... even in year 6 was still trying to be a PF. He wasn't a good PF. But look at the comparision at year 6..

Year 6

Yr 7... There was a change for Horry. Del Harris started letting him play more like a Sf.

Note the difference.

yr 7

"Whatever relief the Sonics felt when learning that Kobe Bryant couldn't play Wednesday night -- the Lakers' teen sensation was incapacitated by a still-unexplained strain of illness -- was quickly dashed by [Robert Horry]'s play in Bryant's place. Moving over from power forward to small forward -- albeit a "small" 6-foot-10, 235 pounds -- Horry suddenly was the swooping aerialist again.

Helping the Rockets to consecutive NBA titles in 1994 and '95, Horry was a double-digit scorer, a long-armed leaper who'd dunk on you a couple of times, then completely mess you up with his three- point range. But his role changed considerably with a trade to Phoenix (in '96), and when Horry was dealt again to the Lakers last year, it was difficult just finding a place for him on the floor.

As noted by [Del Harris], there were both Sonics and Lakers with much better numbers Wednesday night than Horry, impressive enough with nine points, 10 rebounds (eight offensive) and four assists. But it was the way Horry performed, particularly on the two fully extended dunks in the fourth quarter, the latter giving L.A. a 28-point lead"

These are different players playing different styles.

Marvin couldn't be the rebounder that Horry had to be at PF.

He couldn't be the shooter that Horry was at Sf.

Phil Jackson was the only one (aside from rudy) to figure out that if you play Horry on the perimeter, that he would pay big dividens.

We have had Marvin on the perimeter all this time and he can barely match what Horry did as a Pf who took less than 100 3s.

In the year 2000, Horry took almost twice as many three pointers as he did in 1997-98... hit more and did this in less time.

Marvin's game is not comparable unless you're trying to use some PF who shoots an occasional three pointer.

[sturt]

All I read was "Six years doesn't explain anything..."

All I needed to read was "Six years doesn't explain anything"... that is, in order to know you're still standing in the batters box heckling the pitcher, even as strike three just sailed by you.

I'm not letting you divert the discussion, sorry. If you want a different discussion, that's for you and whoever follows you into it.

[Diesel]

All I read was "Six years doesn't explain anything..."

All I needed to read was "Six years doesn't explain anything"... that is, in order to know you're still standing in the batters box heckling the pitcher, even as strike three just sailed by you.

I'm not letting you divert the discussion, sorry. If you want a different discussion, that's for you and whoever follows you into it.

Unfortunate.

I'm talking about the culmination of stats over 6 yrs.

What does Marvin's first 5 years have to do with his play now??

Marvin is in a downward spiral. not a progression. His contract year, shouldn't be lumped into what he is doing now.

Edited June 6, 2011 by Diesel