ESPN Insider: most likely to be traded

[capstone21]

http://insider.espn....t-likely-traded

Are these guys good as gone?

Utah and Memphis have pairs of players most likely to be traded

Updated: November 9, 2012, 12:17 PM ETBy Amin Elhassan | ESPN Insider

As the NBA season gets under way, there are already names we know will come up when the February trade deadline approaches. At that point, we will start seeing trade rumors fill our Twitter timelines and RSS feeds.

When dealing with impending free agents, more and more teams are proactively shopping players early rather than running the risk of losing them to free agency.

Here's a look at some players who are priced to move:

Al Jefferson | C | 2013 UFA | 2012-13 salary: $15 million

Paul Millsap | PF | 2013 UFA | 2012-13 salary: $8.6 million

While the Utah Jazz aren't projected to be a taxpayer, as a small market team it has to exercise extreme caution and be more proactive in shaping its future. With two promising big men in Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter, it would not be prudent to lock into long-term, lucrative deals with players who play the same position, particularly with more than $35 million in projected cap space that could be used to address more glaring needs in the backcourt.

Millsap is the more versatile of the two; Utah's best producing plus-minus lineups feature Millsap at small forward. He is the face of the Jazz, a blue-collar worker who sets the tone in the locker room and has improved his skill level steadily since entering the league in 2006. High motor and good lateral mobility make him a good defender in the pick-and-roll. On the flip side, he is undersized as a power forward and a below-average defensive rebounder. Although a much-improved perimeter shooter, his range is still inconsistent at the 3-point line.

Jefferson is a bruising post presence with an array of exaggerated shot fakes and unorthodox shot release points around the rim, good footwork and touch. He is an outstanding defensive rebounder and decent shot-blocker, but that's where the praise ends for him on the defensive end. He is often slow on rotations and lacks awareness on the weak side. It also bears mentioning that although Jefferson has been the franchise player on his team for much of his eight-year career, he has been to the playoffs just twice. For a guy looking to get paid as a franchise player, winning has to factor into the price tag.

Both players are looking to be paid handsomely, particularly Millsap, who can legitimately claim to be one of the few players who have been underpaid on two contracts. If Utah had to choose one to keep, it would probably be Millsap for his ability to slide to small forward and the culture-setting he brings, but that's what makes him a more attractive trade piece in terms of getting value back. If they don't move one of the two, there's a huge chance they won't be able to retain them in free agency, because there will be suitors.

Josh Smith | PF | 2013 UFA | 2012-13 salary: $13.2 million

Atlanta Hawks general manager Danny Ferry's aggressive overhaul of Atlanta's roster has set the Hawks up with extreme cap flexibility moving forward. With only Al Horford, Lou Williams and John Jenkins with guaranteed salaries on the books, Ferry can potentially clear almost $40 million of cap space for summer 2013, giving him the liberty to craft his roster in any style he wants.

In a league progressively moving toward having power forwards play center and small forwards play power forward, Smith is an ideal fit next to Horford. He has been a tremendous rebounder, particularly on the defensive end, and is annually among the league leaders in blocks and steals. Smith is an excellent finisher with his elite length and above-the-rim athleticism.

Those perks come with questionable shot selection, though, as he has become the king of the most inefficient shot in basketball, the long (17-plus feet) 2-pointer. In 2009-10, he took 8 FGA/game at the rim versus 3.2 from long 2-point range; by 2011-12, that ratio inverted to 5.5 FGA/game at the rim versus 6.5 from long 2-point range -- one of the highest number of such attempts in the league. ESPN's Joe Kaiser detailed just how inefficient Smith has become.

The reward in moving Smith is that Atlanta can potentially net some useful assets in the form of young players and draft picks to aid in the rebuilding effort while simultaneously avoiding the long-term commitment Smith will undoubtedly seek. The risk is that the Hawks never replace his talent. The question is, what's that talent worth? Looking at a comparable talent from last summer, Andrei Kirilenko signed a two-year, $20 million deal after being absent from the NBA for a year. Ideally, Ferry can lock Smith into a flat deal (e.g., $40 million over three years with a fourth-year player option), but due diligence dictates exploring his trade value.

Timofey Mozgov | C | 2013 RFA | 2012-13 salary: $3.1 million

Due to the recent extension of Ty Lawson ($48 million over four years), Denver will be pushing right up against the tax threshold in 2013-14. With so little breathing room, it is almost certain that Masai Ujiri and the Nuggets will not be able to afford the services of Mozgov. They already have two rotation-caliber centers under contract in JaVale McGee and Kosta Koufos and won't be able to offer an upgrade in playing time or pay for Mozgov.

Mozgov is a true 7-footer who changes ends well, can knock down the 15-footer with enough consistency to space the court and keep the defense honest and sets solid screens, both in the pick-and-roll and off the ball. He is an active offensive rebounder, with a big body that demands box-out attention when shots go up. Defensively, he is a good rim protector and post defender and has improved on the defensive glass since coming to Denver. He has bad footwork and bad hands, though, which can limit his effectiveness around the rim.

Robin Lopez, a decent comparable from last summer, signed a deal for $15 million over three years, and some feel that might have been a discount. Mozgov will probably command at least $6 million a year in the open market, so it would serve Ujiri well to proactively seek a trade partner.

Tony Allen | SG | 2013 UFA | 2012-13 salary: $3.3 million

Being a taxpayer in today's NBA is no longer a case of just paying a hefty check -- which in and of itself is no laughing matter for small-market Memphis -- and going about your business. The severe punitive measures in the collective bargaining agreement restrict taxpayers' ability to improve the team: a smaller midlevel exception (both in years and salary), loss of the biannual exception, a tighter window for salary-matching in trades and, perhaps most devastatingly of all starting in 2013-14, the inability to add talent via sign-and-trade. The Grizzlies are projected to be taxpayers, this season and next, and will probably flirt with the tax in 2014-15, so they are staring at an extremely untenable cap situation.

Since coming to Memphis, Allen has really elevated himself into the national consciousness as an elite perimeter defensive player. The Grizzlies gave up more than five extra points per 100 possessions on the defensive end without him on the floor. He routinely guards the best perimeter player and holds him to below average production. According to82games.com, opposing shooting guards posted a 14.1 PER and opponent small forwards 11.4.

Offensively, however, if it's not a dunk or a layup, Allen is abysmal. His role is to provide energy, toughness, and defense and little else outside of that.

Still, he has created a brand name for himself, proved by his back-to-back appearances on the All-Defensive team, and he will be looking to capitalize on that with a larger salary. Allen's agent will likely point to players like Jared Dudley, Danny Green and Gerald Green, who all signed for $3.5-4.25M per year deals, and state that none of them bring the accolades Allen brings to the table. Chris Wallace will have to decide to move Allen or risk letting him walk for nothing.

Zach Randolph | PF/C | 2015 UFA | 2012-13 salary: $16.5 million, 2013-14 salary: $17.8 million, 2014-15 salary: $16.5 million

If you look at the Grizzlies roster, you can see they have:

• a high-level starting caliber PG (Mike Conley)

• an all-defensive caliber perimeter stopper (Tony Allen)

• a near All-Star caliber perimeter scorer (Rudy Gay)

• two All-Star caliber bigs (Randolph and Marc Gasol)

Based on Memphis' salary situation, the obvious target for elimination, due to duplication, would be one of the two bigs. When you factor in that Gasol is younger, bigger, a better passer/playmaker and a better defender, it's easy to see Randolph is the clear choice for trade. It doesn't help that Randolph will always have the ghosts of transgressions past following him (legal troubles, injuries, effort issues).

On the other hand, he is an excellent rebounder and has one of the best pair of hands in the NBA. His earth-bound post game doesn't rely on lift or athleticism, rather guile and power. There might be a market for his services, perhaps from an under-the-cap team like Phoenix, which, like Houston, has tried and failed to acquire big-name talent in free agency.

[hawkrule152]

With Mike Brown being fired, let the Josh Smith for Pau Gasol trade talks resume...Just heard on ESPN that if the Lakers were to make a trade it would be to let Pau go and they said the trade that makes most since is for Smith and a filler (Korver) most likely for Pau..

[wolvetigers]

I dont want Gasol at all

[coachx]

Had Atlanta kept JJ then I would be all for a Josh Smith for Pau Gasol trade........b/c there would be no way we could resign Smith with JJ's contract already on the books. The risk for losing Smith for nothing would be too great. Now things are different since we have future cap flexibility by shedding the contracts of both JJ and Marvin.Now that we have future cap flexibility I would look harder for draft picks and young players in a Smith trade. Preferably a wing to go along with a draft pick.At the same time I would strongly consider a Gasol for Smith swap if there is no other demand for Smith out there. I would demand a 1st round pick though in 2014 from the Lakers be included. Gasol only has 2 more years under his contract and the 2013 free agent crop is now very weak since so many would be free agents have signed extensions. The Hawks would probably not be able to use that cap room until 2014 any way (the same year Gasol's contract falls off the books).

Edited November 9, 2012 by coachx

[MaceCase]

With Mike Brown being fired, let the Josh Smith for Pau Gasol trade talks resume... Just heard on ESPN that if the Lakers were to make a trade it would be to let Pau go and they said the trade that makes most since is for Smith and a filler (Korver) most likely for Pau..

I would 3 team that. Send Josh to LA, Pau to Houston and any permutation of T.Jones, P. Patterson, D. Motiejunas, C.Aldrich/R. White coming back to Atlanta plus maybe future picks flitting about.

[hawkrule152]

I dont want Gasol at all

Same here. I was just stating what I had heard on SC.

[Q45T]

I dont want Gasol at all

Agree 100% Edited November 9, 2012 by Q45T

[AHF]

I would 3 team that. Send Josh to LA, Pau to Houston and any permutation of T.Jones, P. Patterson, D. Motiejunas, C.Aldrich/R. White coming back to Atlanta plus maybe future picks flitting about.

Good thinking!

[AHF]

BTW - Kirilenko hasn't been "comparable" to Josh for several years. Not a great point of comparison, although Kirilenko is so overpaid that the comparison might actually work better on the books than it does on the floor.

[Colin]

Wow, if Mozgov can fetch $6 million+ a year, Zaza might be in for a 4-year/$32 contract this offseason.

[Sothron]

I would 3 team that. Send Josh to LA, Pau to Houston and any permutation of T.Jones, P. Patterson, D. Motiejunas, C.Aldrich/R. White coming back to Atlanta plus maybe future picks flitting about.

I'll make that even easier for Houston: agree to remove the lottery restrictions on the pick we have from them plus one of the glut of PFs they have under contract. They can keep the rest. I want zero part of Gasol as this team is not built for the playoffs but for a modified rebuild.

[kerrypack]

Lets see how things look this year. I don't know what we can get for Josh. He hasn't looked good so far this year, but he may be hurt. sprained ankles are no joke.

[vext]

Smoove isn't going anywhere. We are going to resign him this off-season. It is obvious that he is being presented as the face of the franchise. I think he is going to finally be happy being the number one on the Hawks.

[capstone21]

BTW - Kirilenko hasn't been "comparable" to Josh for several years. Not a great point of comparison, although Kirilenko is so overpaid that the comparison might actually work better on the books than it does on the floor.

Kirilenko har really been ballin' this year

[GameTime]

Smoove isn't going anywhere. We are going to resign him this off-season. It is obvious that he is being presented as the face of the franchise. I think he is going to finally be happy being the number one on the Hawks.

I can't see Ferry giving him the max he desires if he continues to play like this.