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Official Game Thread: Hawks - Rockets

lethalweapon3

By lethalweapon3
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lethalweapon3 Grand Master

lethalweapon3

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What are you doing New Year’s Eve? With apologies to the organizers of First Night Houston, I’m guessing the Atlanta Hawks will want this game over with the quickness, and head straight to George Bush Intercontinental in time for the big countdown in New Orleans. Will the Houston Rockets cooperate with these travel plans?

Coaches Kevin McHale and Kelvin Sampson have done a solid job keeping this roster in playoff contention (16-14; 11-2 versus the East but just 5-12 against the West). But the Rockets are suddenly leaking fuel again on defense and scrambling to find a stopper. After lighting up Memphis and Chicago for over 120 points just over a week ago, the tables were turned on them in the past two games, in San Antonio and at home to James Harden’s former mates, Oklahoma City. Both opponents are first-and-second in the league for scoring, and Houston’s right behind them (105.3 PPG), but they’ll want to cool off the Hawks, who have scored triple digits in regulation in each of their last two games.

Only Charlotte gives up more three-pointers (8.4 per game) and points per game (103.8 PPG) than the Rockets. Before the Spurs game, H-Town kept teams below 100 points in six out of eight games, compared to just twice in the 14 games before that. They’re 1-9 when opponents score more than 105 points, while the 46.1 FG% they give up is higher than any Top 8 team in either conference.

The Hawks need to keep up passing game going. Houston is 0-9 when opponents ring up more than 25 team assists. Atlanta will need to start from the inside out and attack the Rockets’ thin front line repeatedly. Omer Asik (1.1 BPG) is the sole Rocket with more than one block per game. Smoove-to-Horford could turn out to be a nice combo in the paint if Josh Smith is healthy enough to go, while Zaza Pachulia can give Houston fits with offensive rebounds. Jeff Teague and Lou Williams will need to drive and finish strong if they don’t draw extra defenders. If the Rockets bring help inside, kick the ball out to the perimeter, and swing it around until someone’s open. Those options won’t include Anthony Morrow or Devin Harris, who remain in Atlanta recuperating.

Patrick Patterson (12.7 PPG, 4.6 RPG) is still developing at power forward but is recovering from a sore foot. Patterson is striving to get his staring gig back from Marcus Morris, who dropped 17 on the Hawks in Atlanta’s home opener and was a bright spot with a season-high 24 points (including four threes) against the Spurs on Saturday. As for the other bigs, Greg Smith shows up in flashes then disappears. A certain first-round pick whose name is not worth mentioning remains “Missing in Inaction,” although the team itself seems adequately shielded from the drama. Cole Aldrich has yet to impress and is a target to get released soon.

Atlanta hasn’t been forcing turnovers like they did earlier in the season -- just 13.9 per game from December opponents compared to 17.1 in November. But they’ll be licking their chops for the transition opportunities against the team who’s #1 in turnovers per game (16.2).

There’s little mystery as to where the Rockets emit their red glare. Houston takes the lowest proportion of long two-point shots by far (around 13%). They’re the only NBA team that takes more than two-thirds of their field goals either at the rim or at the free throw line. Their field goal percentages at either range are less than stellar, though, so plenty of defensive rebounding opportunities should arise. Houston didn't have a problem outworking the glass against Atlanta in the last matchup (23-7 on offensive rebounds). Ivan Johnson was a DNP-CD, so expect meaningful minutes this time around.

Top scorers Harden, Jeremy Lin, and Chandler Parsons are aggressive attacking on the drive until they find either a rim or contact. Harden, the league’s 4th leading scorer, draws enough fouls to get an NBA-leading 10.2 free throw attempts per game, converting over 85% of them. Defensive positioning is important to get Harden (career-high 45 points against Atlanta in November) to move laterally instead of directly at the hoop, turning him into a jump-shooter (33.5 FG% on two-point shots away from the rim, 36.5 3FG%), or a passer. He’s second among NBA non-point guards with 5.2 assists per game, but he’s fourth in the NBA averaging 3.6 turnovers per game.

The Hawks are still on the snake-bitten end with opponents’ free throw shooting, and against Harden (15-for-17 FT shooting vs. Atlanta) and Lin (81.8 FT%) that trend is unlikely to break tonight unless they can play Hack-A-sik (57.1 FT%). Atlanta is the only NBA team whose opponents are hitting their free throws above 80 percent (81.0%). That percentage would be an NBA record as far as I can tell, as the 2008-09 Portland Trail Blazers (80.3 opponent FT%) are the only other team in history to experience that over the course of a season.

Lin (21 points, 10 rebounds, 7 assists vs. Atlanta in November) has also been high on the turnover scale, averaging 4.5 in his last four games. He’s calling his own number more and shooting much better than at the start of the year (48.5 FG% in December, up from 37.7% through November), quieting the I-told-you-so’s that were crowing before he zipped ‘em up two weeks ago at Madison Square Garden.

His passing (6.3 assists, 2.9 turnovers) is an uptick better than last year’s Season of Linsanity (6.2 assists, 3.6 turnovers in 2011-12), but his free throw opportunities have been cut in half (2.6 FTAs per game, down from 5.2). There’s no need for Heroball anymore with Harden around, so Lin may want to play to his strengths and lay off the three-point shooting for awhile, as he’s made just 6-of-31 over his last ten games.

You probably won’t get to see him play today, but James Anderson is back on an NBA roster again. Despite playing well after a D-League call-up by San Antonio, he was crowded out after Stephen Jackson returned from injury. Houston saw enough to keep him from going back to Rio Grande Valley. He can definitely help the Rockets with their defensive woes.

The Hawks have done well on back-to-back games so far this year, going 11-3. Whichever way this game goes, it will be interesting to see how well they follow up tomorrow night against Eric Gordon and the Hornets.

Go Hawks! Happy New Year!

~lw3

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MaceCase Grand Master

MaceCase

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Kenny Smith often talks of being able to reach 20 wins before 10 losses as being the mark of an elite team.....do the Hawks make that jump tonight? Well the fabled 09-10 team acheived the feat of reaching 20 wins before 10 losses but then proceeded to lose 5 out of their next 7 having reached the mark. They still finished with 53 wins though but the playoff performance....

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Admin Newbie

Admin

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I absolutely HATE us playing the Texas teams and we seem to really struggle with the Rockets so I'm not all that hopeful for tonight. Everyone should thank me for not going to the game tonight though as we've been beaten badly every single game I've attended here in Houston between the Rockets and Hawks.

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benhillboy Grand Master

benhillboy

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Have we ever been within a game of first place on New Year's before in the Al Era? I find myself rooting for teams around us to lose more than ever before, and it's fun as hell. Charlotte beat Chicago, not a good look Thibideau, but appreciate you. Indy is the latest team to lose to us then take their frustrations out on a team they should lose to in Memphis. Thanks for nothing, Lionel. I'm sure San An will drub Brooklyn, Orlando currently up 7 going into the fourth over Miami. Finish it up, Jaque. Lets Go.

Edited by benhillboy
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lethalweapon3 Grand Master

lethalweapon3

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Josh will give it a go tonight, as per @ajchawks. Lou starts, too, although how that will work against Harden remains to be seen. DeShawn will probably get calls off the bench early and often (trading defensive assignments with Smoove on Harden and Parsons) as of course will Zaza and Ivan when they go bigger.

~lw3

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Colin Rookie

Colin

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I'm gonna say this since I was at this game. We lost because everybody caved towards the middle and left shooters open on the corners. I'd rather give up a contested layup than an open 3. Guess Larry Drew and the Hawks don't agree.

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benhillboy Grand Master

benhillboy

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They're clearly a bad matchup for us, and the rest of the East for that matter (12-2). Well get back on the good foot tomorrow. At least we didn't lose to the Bobcats, Chicago.I remember Delfino not returning from injury early in Game 7 against the Bucks. That was big, because he was matched up with Marvin and easily capable of outplaying him and doing some s&@t like he did tonight.

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