Al Horford, building around, free agency, and such

[Wretch]

(Buzz & Taz, if you want to merry-go-round off of that other discussion, please feel free to talk to me here like I'm an idiot, trade barbs and frustrations, and force me to see things your way... :D)

I thought I would start another thread to talk about Horford and speculate on all things team building related to him. He is a very important piece for us and between all the free agency/tank/etc. talk...I wanted to keep that conversation going (if there's any left to it).

Best case scenario for me after 3 years...is we crack the 2nd round. Worst case...is we crack the 2nd round. What do you see Horford doing if we're still stuck in the middle in 3 years and are you not worried about that? Three years is not a big window.

And I'm going to say something that'll make the board *gasp* and probably stone me, but at what point would you consider trading our most valuable asset?

[NBASupes]

If you are building around Horford you need

Playmaking PG

True center who can protect the paint

Other movement players.

That's pretty much it. It's all about how good those around him are. Horf is an efficient player, he isn't going to take a lot of bad shots. You need to put the right type of players around him so he can play his game efficiently but produce big number

[ATLscrubLove]

Is it safe to say Horford is safe on this team? I feel like Ferry would probably consider trading him as well for the right price.

[Wretch]

Is it safe to say Horford is safe on this team? I feel like Ferry would probably consider trading him as well for the right price.

Y'know...I don't know if you're joking or not...but I got that same feeling. My gut tells me though that Horford is a Ferry kind of player...a Ferry/Spurs DREAM player probably. He's also building in the short term and he's filling holes...so I suspect he's trying to win with Horford.

Man, I just don't see that playing out well. We've (so far) acquired nothing to really deal with down the line...and how do you deal on such short contracts anyway for anything substantial? I see a 2 year plan built around Horford with the same kind of scrambling 2 seasons from now. Which I should probably start looking at the FA's...

[drzachary]

See how the season starts, trade him at the deadline if it's a flop.

[noble]

Horford is very unhappy with this team. He has said he wants a C, and they blow him off. If this continues, we won't have a chance to rebuild around him as when his contract is up he is out of here for nothing in return.

[HawkItus]

Y'know...I don't know if you're joking or not...but I got that same feeling. My gut tells me though that Horford is a Ferry kind of player...a Ferry/Spurs DREAM player probably. He's also building in the short term and he's filling holes...so I suspect he's trying to win with Horford.

Man, I just don't see that playing out well. We've (so far) acquired nothing to really deal with down the line...and how do you deal on such short contracts anyway for anything substantial? I see a 2 year plan built around Horford with the same kind of scrambling 2 seasons from now. Which I should probably start looking at the FA's...

You keep saying this, but check this out...

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/67894/dwights-flight-and-what-weve-learned-from-free-agency-so-far

Inertia Is Death

The Rockets, other executives enjoy pointing out, are sort of annoying, especially around draft day. They make a million phone calls, poking the market and chasing tiny deals that move them two spots up in the draft, score an extra second-round pick, or shift some Samuel Dalembert– and Chase Budinger–size flotsam around the league. That Daryl Morey, folks chuckled a year ago, burning up the phone lines to chase the no. 9 seed. When is Houston going to wise up and can that guy?

Oh, hey. A year later, the Rockets turned precisely zero top-50 NBA players into a roster that now contains two of the league’s 15 best guys, including a game-changing center who was the second-best player in the world just two years ago. Kevin Durant would have blown by Dwight Howard into that no. 2 slot even had Howard stayed healthy, but if the gassy, candy-guzzling monster rediscovers even 95 percent of his 2010-11 dexterity (and effort), Howard may reemerge as the league’s third-best player.

[Peoriabird]

See how the season starts, trade him at the deadline if it's a flop.

So if we tank and decide to build through the draft, fans are willing to wait 5 years or longer to see whether it works but are unwilling to wait 1 season with Horford.

[BackForThe2ndTime]

Horford is talented, but I think our fans think too much of him talent and potential-wise. I like that he plays for this team and he's a nice guy. Is he really a superstar though? Then why should we build around him? On top of that, his temperament could be better. He often has to be knocked around before he amps it up. You could have much worse options to build around though. Let's just stop acting like he's that much of a game changer....and I'm a fan. Big fan.

[Wretch]

If you are building around Horford you need

Playmaking PG

True center who can protect the paint

Other movement players.

That's pretty much it. It's all about how good those around him are. Horf is an efficient player, he isn't going to take a lot of bad shots. You need to put the right type of players around him so he can play his game efficiently but produce big number

Personally, I think he depends on too much to try and build AROUND him. I love Al, but it's almost like that JT syndrome from years ago where we were ALWAYS searching for a playmaking SG. I just see the options of building a contender like this. It's too reliant on securing another elite talent through free agency. Holding our breath on another CP3/Howard scenario....and damn man, that was just about as perfect a situation as it could GET for us.

That's why I would just as soon start fishing in the draft and securing those assets.

If it was me, after starting a rebuild this season and part of next...I wouldn't gamble on Al's free agency. *ducks to avoid stones*

[macdaddy]

Its difficult. You talk about Ferry not pulling things off in his one year on the job but you know at the start of every season there are anywhere from 5-8 real contenders in the whole damn league. That's either a lot of inept GMs or just not enough talent to go around. And add in that the league and its cohorts do their best to protect the 'stars' and big franchises.

The Rockets are sitting good now because they managed to land a second tier superstar in trade and then a superstar in FA because of it. Were the Rockets better than most of the nba last year? Hell no. They were decidedly average but they had a face, a scorer. This is why priority one isn't to get Al Horford a two bit center so he can play PF. Priority one, in absence of an all star free agent is to land quality players and keep your flexibility in hopes that you can pounce when the opportunity comes up.

Plus, the rockets haven't done squat yet. Remember when McGrady and Yao were going to bring a title?

[Wretch]

So if we tank and decide to build through the draft, fans are willing to wait 5 years or longer to see whether it works but are unwilling to wait 1 season with Horford.

Y'know, yeah. LOL. Not saying it will happen, is likely to happen, or that that we will draft Shaqobe Jordan :D and win a title...but all things being equal, would you rather...

Enjoy the lottery sufferings of Boston and have this after 5-6 years:

Or, have this every 2 years for 6 years:

The net results of drafting after 4-5 years is still lottery pick assets that can be flipped. You'll have something. The net result of a treadmill team every couple of seasons is what exactly? Not to derail this too far into tank/anti-tank...but you will have something to show for and teams have been using that sort of thing to draft or deal for franchise changing talent for years.

[NBASupes]

Personally, I think he depends on too much to try and build AROUND him. I love Al, but it's almost like that JT syndrome from years ago where we were ALWAYS searching for a playmaking SG. I just see the options of building a contender like this. It's too reliant on securing another elite talent through free agency. Holding our breath on another CP3/Howard scenario....and damn man, that was just about as perfect a situation as it could GET for us.

That's why I would just as soon start fishing in the draft and securing those assets.

If it was me, after starting a rebuild this season and part of next...I wouldn't gamble on Al's free agency. *ducks to avoid stones*

I don't see nothing like JT in Horford. You can build around Horford but you have to find the talent that fits and the abilities that can create for him. He doesn't create his offense well. Not saying he is bad offensively because he is not, but he is not a #1 option unless you can create for him. He is great at getting himself in position and he is an excellent mid range shooter and finisher.

[Peoriabird]

Y'know, yeah. LOL. Not saying it will happen, is likely to happen, or that that we will draft Shaqobe Jordan and win a title...but all things being equal, would you rather...

Enjoy the lottery sufferings of Boston and have this after 5-6 years:

Or, have this every 2 years for 6 years:

The net results of drafting after 4-5 years is still lottery pick assets that can be flipped. You'll have something. The net result of a treadmill team every couple of seasons is what exactly? Not to derail this too far into tank/anti-tank...but you will have something to show for and teams have been using that sort of thing to draft or deal for franchise changing talent for years.

You keep talking as if the Hawks haven't been in the lottery in the last 10 years and have not tried your sure fire methods but I have Marvin William, Sheldon Williams, Josh Childress, Acie Law and Al Horford to dispute this notion.

[Wretch]

So if we tank and decide to build through the draft, fans are willing to wait 5 years or longer to see whether it works but are unwilling to wait 1 season with Horford.

And let me add something here...let me ask, what is your REALISTIC expectations for a Danny Ferry built team featuring Horford as the centerpiece? Personally, i'm not seeing ECF's this year... Maybe next year with the right compliment to Al...?

What is it that you guys expect from free agency within 3 years (because like I said, Al's free after that).

[HawkItus]

It's hard to say. This will be Horf's first year as the man. He upped his game last year and I hope he will do the same again with a better coach, system, and IQ around him.

[Peoriabird]

And let me add something here...let me ask, what is your REALISTIC expectations for a Danny Ferry built team featuring Horford as the centerpiece? Personally, i'm not seeing ECF's this year... Maybe next year with the right compliment to Al...?

What is it that you guys expect from free agency within 3 years (because like I said, Al's free after that).

Maybe our coaching staff can take a guy like Jennings and bring out untapped potential or maybe he would functions better in the right environment. It does happen you know! Heck it happened to Joe Johnson when he was initially signed by the Hawks.

[Wretch]

You keep talking as if the Hawks haven't been in the lottery in the last 10 years and have not tried your sure fire methods but I have Marvin William, Sheldon Williams, Josh Childress, Acie Law and Al Horford to dispute this notion.

Is this NOT our only HOPE right now?

Also, I'll give you everything BUT Marvin Williams. The Squawk had it right MONTHS before the draft went down - there was a consensus that we needed a PG (especially with so many forwards on our roster). We all pretty much wanted to trade down. I wanted Chris Paul, I know for a fact Dolfan & Diesel wanted Deron Williams. A monkey wouldn't have screwed up the 2005. There is no reason for us to not have had either of those two.

BTW...we didn't start a true rebuild until BK took over and flushed us in 2004 and we stopped in 2007. Three year drafting window. Prior to that, Babcock traded away picks and had absolutely no concern for the draft. See Lorenzen Wright and Big Dog (cost us the epic 2003 draft at that).

Edited July 8, 2013 by Wretch

[Peoriabird]

I wanted Chris Paul, I know for a fact Dolfan & Diesel wanted Deron Williams. A monkey wouldn't have screwed up the 2005.

And exactly what has either won? Neither one got out of the 1st round this year right? That my point! You keep talking in these absolutes when arguing for your plan but the reality is that your plan is just as flawed and ultimately there is a lot of timing, luck and Good gm'ing that lead to championships.

[noble]

I think there are actually 2 problems here that people keep putting into 1 large one. There is no one on this team that the fans are drawn to as THE guy. People like Al, but he is not that one guy. Second, fans are sick of being middle of the pack. If I were to say I predict we make the playoffs this year and lose in the first round or win the first round only to be crushed in the 2nd not a soul on this board would bat an eye as a crazy prediction. We have gotten used to mediocrity. There isn't much to cheer for over the years. When this team had 'Nique, there was always a chance, that hope his ability could push this team over the hump. It was amazing to watch him play and that playoff game against Bird is one I will never forget. Will vs will....this team hasn't seen anything close to that since he left. So the problem is two fold. One we have no player on this team the fans gravitate toward as wanting to watch. Which could be solved by answering problem 2...not being in contention for anything more than a middle of the pack season. Remember winning cures a lot of things.