Elton Brand to ATL.

[Sothron]

I think after seeing both the Pacers and Grizzlies reach the Conference Finals gives us hope.

I think seeing us be compeitive vs The Pacers gives us hope.

Add in Milsap for Smith, add Brand for better frontcourt depth, add "Junkyard Dawg" for wing defense, bring back a cheap big like Petro, and have Lou healthy. Plus we add is a coach who most believe has a schematic advantage over Drew and I think we would have a very good chance against the Pacers again in a 7 game series. Not to mention the 3 talented draft picks who are wildcards.

I want to see this new group play for Coach Bud and see if we see a "change of culture." Lets see if we can finally get "the basketball right."

If we can start playing true smart basketball, conduct ourselves as professionals, and be more competitive in the playoffs.....then who's to say veteran star free agents will not take notice ? It looks like Ferry will have the cap space to be a player again in free agency next year. The Heat will be a year older and more beatable going into the 2014-15 season.

I can only point out teams like the Jazz, the Pacers, the Grizzles etc who are always "one star away" and never actually get anyone in that capacity.

[Sothron]

The NBA is vastly different from baseball ( 8 starting position players, plus 5 starting pitchers, plus 1 or 2 good relief pitchers ) or football ( 22 starters plus several well paid rotational players ) and all of us know this IMO. Its simple math. You can only start 5 players in basketball; so one player can make a huge impact.

Whats different now vs the past is there is a lot more player movement now in the NBA and this trend is going to continue. All you have to do is look at the stars on every finals team for the last decade and its obvious how much turn over is happening.

The bold sentence above is the key to winning a championship now. Make your team attractive to free agents and get them to come sign with you. The tankers point to OKC like they are the norm. OKC is the one in a million team; not the norm. This is the tankers creed IMO "All we have to do is tank, get in the lottery two years in a row, and away we go to the finals"

Good luck with that.

Not one person on this site has said "get in the lottery two years in a row and we go to the Finals". So good luck arguing that straw man.

[MaceCase]

I think after seeing both the Pacers and Grizzlies reach the Conference Finals gives us hope.

I think seeing us be compeitive vs The Pacers gives us hope.

Add in Milsap for Smith, add Brand for better frontcourt depth, add "Junkyard Dawg" for wing defense, bring back a cheap big like Petro, and have Lou healthy. Plus we add is a coach who most believe has a schematic advantage over Drew and I think we would have a very good chance against the Pacers again in a 7 game series. Not to mention the 3 talented draft picks who are wildcards.

I want to see this new group play for Coach Bud and see if we see a "change of culture." Lets see if we can finally get "the basketball right."

If we can start playing true smart basketball, conduct ourselves as professionals, and be more competitive in the playoffs.....then who's to say veteran star free agents will not take notice ? It looks like Ferry will have the cap space to be a player again in free agency next year. The Heat will be a year older and more beatable going into the 2014-15 season.

The Grizzlies were fortuitous having Griffin and Westbrook go down to injury in two straight series. This isn't a measure of success that any team wants, simply wishing that you face hobbled competition. Certainly the Hawks could make it to an ECF maybe even a Finals wishing on everybody collectively spraining their ankles and blowing out their ACLs but what are the chances of duplicating that over numerous seasons? That is what you call a fluke.

The Pacers were fortuitous in drawing smaller teams that they absolutely punished with their size and having an up and coming premier wing scorer/defender. The Hawks have done absolutely nothing to combat either considering that we've yet to acquire a true center or even a true wing. Carroll is not going to give you 40 minutes a night as he will hurt you more than help, he's restricted to spot minutes and the same can be said about Brand, his length be damned. One has to also ask whether the Pacers will look just as good going up against frontlines featuring Lopez, Garnett, Blatche and Evans or Noah, Boozer and Gibson than Carmelo, Josh and Battier being the starting 4s.

Indiana has a much better chance of sustaining success than a 5th seed Grizzlies repeating again in the WCFs but still, I don't see how either team can give the Hawks any hope when one is a fluke and the other is built better.

[Buzzard]

I think after seeing both the Pacers and Grizzlies reach the Conference Finals gives us hope.

I think seeing us be compeitive vs The Pacers gives us hope.

Add in Milsap for Smith, add Brand for better frontcourt depth, add "Junkyard Dawg" for wing defense, bring back a cheap big like Petro, and have Lou healthy. Plus we add is a coach who most believe has a schematic advantage over Drew and I think we would have a very good chance against the Pacers again in a 7 game series. Not to mention the 3 talented draft picks who are wildcards.

I want to see this new group play for Coach Bud and see if we see a "change of culture." Lets see if we can finally get "the basketball right."

If we can start playing true smart basketball, conduct ourselves as professionals, and be more competitive in the playoffs.....then who's to say veteran star free agents will not take notice ? It looks like Ferry will have the cap space to be a player again in free agency next year. The Heat will be a year older and more beatable going into the 2014-15 season.

It is all about being seen as a good organization. The Clipps, GSW, and ( hopefully now us ) are changing their images. When the demand for talent exceeds the number of available prospects, it is usually two things that win over the job prospect. #1- being a perceived great company to work for and #2- location.

Once you are a top 50 company in your industry, everyone pays the same. Its #1 and #2 that usually wins the prize recruits. Atlanta has always been viewed as a great city to live and work in. Hopefully with the hiring of Ferry and Bud, we are starting to look like a great organization to work for.

[Buzzard]

Not one person on this site has said "get in the lottery two years in a row and we go to the Finals". So good luck arguing that straw man.

Its not a straw. There was a tank debate in which OKC was consistently pointed to as the way to build a championship caliber team vs Houston. The only straw is the thought process that made the OKC way seem so easy and logical.

[Buzzard]

I can only point out teams like the Jazz, the Pacers, the Grizzles etc who are always "one star away" and never actually get anyone in that capacity.

You can actually point to 20 NBA teams over the last decade; since only six have won a championship and only ten different teams have made a finals appearance.

10 out of 30 is actually not a bad % all things considered.

Edited July 17, 2013 by Buzzard

[macdaddy]

Who said that you had to win a championship to not be a failure?

It's funny because not that long ago people understood that this franchise has been one that has been happy with being mediocre, but now all of a sudden people start with these straw man arguments.

I'm not sure your definition of failure or mediocre is then. We've had some damn good seasons. 45 wins and a decent playoff seed is not my definition of failure. Sure I'd love to do more but what I see this season is taking a team and building around the parts that have been working. Namely Teague, Horford, Korver. Getting rid of the parts that weren't working: Smoove and LD. And adding quality nba players like Milsap, Brand, Carroll.

We can't control what the handful of superstar free agents want to do in this league. All we can do is try to build a house brick by brick. We can poo-poo these moves all day long but I'm not seeing where we could have done much better.

[AHF]

I don't see how this measure of luck is substantially different than winning the lottery or picking the right player. I guess the effects of picking the right player last for 4 years and the other one only lasts a series. It is still more likely that another team gets an injury than a team picking the right player, so the frequency of injuries probably makes the two about equal.

But it is equally likely Memphis will suffer the injury problems next time. Teams that hit big in the lottery get usually 7+ years of stud production at a discount price. I don't see the randomness of injuries and the lottery as being comparable in impact or ability to build into a team strategy. Edited July 17, 2013 by AHF

[Buzzard]

But it is equally likely Memphis will suffer the injury problems next time. Teams that hit big in the lottery get usually 7+ years of stud production at a discount price. I don't see the randomness of injuries and the lottery as being comparable in impact or ability to build into a team strategy.

Injuries are a very small part of the lottery and occur far less often than just picking the player that does not have the best talent.

[MaceCase]

I don't see how this measure of luck is substantially different than winning the lottery or picking the right player. I guess the effects of picking the right player last for 4 years and the other one only lasts a series. It is still more likely that another team gets an injury than a team picking the right player, so the frequency of injuries probably makes the two about equal.

I don't agree, I think it's far more likely to find a good player in the lotto than to overcome the odds of having not one but TWO injuries occur to different opponents and to advance without home court advantage. Sure if you want to just boil it down to the chance of having one injury versus selecting that one player you could say you have a greater chance of injury occuring but we know that the Grizzlies were facing a more stacked deck than that making that comparison futile.

[Buzzard]

The Grizzlies were fortuitous having Griffin and Westbrook go down to injury in two straight series. This isn't a measure of success that any team wants, simply wishing that you face hobbled competition. Certainly the Hawks could make it to an ECF maybe even a Finals wishing on everybody collectively spraining their ankles and blowing out their ACLs but what are the chances of duplicating that over numerous seasons? That is what you call a fluke.

The Pacers were fortuitous in drawing smaller teams that they absolutely punished with their size and having an up and coming premier wing scorer/defender. The Hawks have done absolutely nothing to combat either considering that we've yet to acquire a true center or even a true wing. Carroll is not going to give you 40 minutes a night as he will hurt you more than help, he's restricted to spot minutes and the same can be said about Brand, his length be damned. One has to also ask whether the Pacers will look just as good going up against frontlines featuring Lopez, Garnett, Blatche and Evans or Noah, Boozer and Gibson than Carmelo, Josh and Battier being the starting 4s.

Indiana has a much better chance of sustaining success than a 5th seed Grizzlies repeating again in the WCFs but still, I don't see how either team can give the Hawks any hope when one is a fluke and the other is built better.

Ignoring what Memphis did last season is not a good idea when sizing them up.

They were tied for the 5th best record in the NBA. Memphis does not need a superstar to get them over the hump IMO. They just need a better scoring option at the 2 and/or 3.

You give them one or two role playing scoring options like what the Spurs have; and I think they can push anyone to a do or die 7th game; and have a good chance to win. Same for Indy.

Edited July 17, 2013 by Buzzard

[AHF]

It is not 7+ years, only 4 years are controllable. And I already mentioned that specific issue in my response.

The point is both of those rely on luck and luck is spread around equally. Luck plays no favorites, but for some reason people discussing winning the lottery and picking the right player completely ignore (or downplay) this issue. But oh lawdy, injuries in the playoffs MUST be luck! (Well yeah, no shit but other components of building a team involve luck. Why aren't you talking about those issues?)

I can't think of one guy drafted in the lottery who was a home run for his team (the team was eager to pay big money ala Lebron, Dwight, Wade, Durant, etc. and on to the point where teams might let a guy walk if he wants too much) that simply walked after 4 years since we have had the rookie wage system we have today. RFA makes an extension after the first 4 years the norm under the current "4 years of total control plus restricted free agency with a cap on the amount other teams can offer."

I think you can plan for luck with the lottery (i.e., what you will do if you get lucky and what you will do if you don't) but you can't really plan for injuries to key players in the playoffs. You just have to roll with the punches with playoff injuries but you can build a strategy around the lottery system.

Edited July 17, 2013 by AHF

[Buzzard]

I can't think of one guy drafted in the lottery who was a home run for his team (the team was eager to pay big money ala Lebron, Dwight, Wade, Durant, etc. and on to the point where teams might let a guy walk if he wants too much) that simply walked after 4 years since we have had the rookie wage system we have today. RFA makes an extension after the first 4 years the norm under the current "4 years of total control plus restricted free agency with a cap on the amount other teams can offer."

I think you can plan for luck with the lottery (i.e., what you will do if you get lucky and what you will do if you don't) but you can't really plan for injuries to key players in the playoffs. You just have to roll with the punches with playoff injuries but you can build a strategy around the lottery system.

From pick one to pick thirty, everyone better have a plan, a very deep plan depending on where they pick. If not they will be unemployed very soon.

Injuries at playoff time is just plain bad luck. In some cases, like Rose, its disastrous.

Edited July 17, 2013 by AHF

[AHF]

You can influence your odds in the draft lottery pretty significantly and the ability to prepare for and plan around the draft is very different from key playoff injuries. Both involve luck but I think the circumstances are quite distinguishable.

[MaceCase]

Yeah, I guess when you look around every team in the league is healthy. Just a few unlucky ones don't have a full roster. My bad.

You like to compound being in the position to select the right player and also selecting the right player but you want to treat1) injury occurrence 2) injury severity3) injury occurrence and severity to a key player4) drawing an opponent with condition 35) drawing two opponents with condition 3As all separate events?Like I said, sure Kobe can have a set back next year but how will that benefit a Hawks playoff push? Yes in the grand scheme of probabilities that or something like that is bound to happen but I reaaaaaaaally don't see how you can place luck in the draft as being on the same level as a fully healthy Hawks team taking on a Heat without Lebron, Knicks without Melo, Bulls without Rosé and then Thunder without Durant for a championship.

[AHF]

Also, I don't count McGrady because Toronto let him go because they weren't willing to pay him. They could have had him for his prime years if they wanted. That choice is control.As for 7+ years being unrealistic, I bet that is the average for the top players especially if you control for players who were let go due to cheapness and not due to a team's inability to keep the player. The only out a player has is to take the QO and when does that happen for a player whose team is willing to pay? If you land a Lebron, Dwight, Durant, etc. player then the real life numbers show 7+ is normal if a team is ready to pay the player.

[Peoriabird]

To put probabilities into perspective, how many teams in the 1st round of the NBA playoffs had significant injuries on their team? I count OKC, LAL, Clippers, Denver, Chicago, Boston, and Golden State.

Hey..You left us off the list. Zaza had season ending surgery

[AHF]

Maybe you missed this part, so I decided to just increase the font size.

. Go broader and ID the restricted free agents who left in less than 7 years when their teams were willing to match and keep them. 7 years still sounds like the normal number to me. It will be at least 8 for Teague if we want him.

[Final_quest]

This discussion prompted a question. Is JJ the only RFA to sign with another team and go on to be a six time all star with his new team?

[Sothron]

This discussion prompted a question. Is JJ the only RFA to sign with another team and go on to be a six time all star with his new team?

Not sure if McGrady was a RFA when he left the Raptors or if he hit six All Star teams but he is the only name that comes to mind.