Nabisco Soft Chocolate Chip Cookies..

[AHF]

Fair enough and a good correction, 1.5 NBA seasons of declining (2013, 2014) since his peak season. But I'm still talking about a 28 year old guy coming off of 2 major injuries.

 

The difference is that I believe 2012 was his peak for his career and you don't believe that will be the case. Correct? 

 

For rebounding, his first 3 years were actually all better rate adjusted seasons.  He had more minutes in 2012 which led to it being a career high.  I think Al is more of a 9 rpg guy when healthy and getting 34 minutes.  His per 36 rebound rate is 9.2-11.1 rp36 every year except two:  one in which he played 11 games which I throw out as a small sample outlier and this year which I seriously question since he is still recovering.  

 

I expect his defense and rebounding to significantly improve as he recovers.

 

(And it should be 1.25 seasons, not 1.5!)

Edited December 4, 2014 by AHF

[Admin]

For rebounding, his first 3 years were actually all better rate adjusted seasons.  He had more minutes in 2012 which led to it being a career high.  I think Al is more of a 9 rpg guy when healthy and getting 34 minutes.  His per 36 rebound rate is 9.2-11.1 rp36 every year except two:  one in which he played 11 games which I throw out as a small sample outlier and this year which I seriously question since he is still recovering.  

 

I expect his defense and rebounding to significantly improve as he recovers.

 

(And it should be 1.25 seasons, not 1.5!)

 

So once he's fully healthy, what do you expect his numbers to be?  And when do you anticipate considering him healthy?

 

I expect 14-15 points / 7-9 rebounds / 1-1.5 blocks will be the best stats he puts up for a season again barring some radical change in minutes and usage. 

[AHF]

So once he's fully healthy, what do you expect his numbers to be?  And when do you anticipate considering him healthy?

 

I expect 14-15 points / 7-9 rebounds / 1-1.5 blocks will be the best stats he puts up for a season again barring some radical change in minutes and usage. 

 

I see him at the high ends of those ranges when healthy (which will likely be next season before he is fully there):

 

16 points on .580 TS% / 9 rebounds / 1.3 block / .8 steal while playing good D

 

This season, I expect he will struggle for much of the year on the boards and on D.  All I am hoping for is that he is significantly improved by the time the playoffs come.  

[Admin]

I see him at the high ends of those ranges when healthy (which will likely be next season before he is fully there):

 

16 points on .580 TS% / 9 rebounds / 1.3 block / .8 steal while playing good D

 

This season, I expect he will struggle for much of the year on the boards and on D.  All I am hoping for is that he is significantly improved by the time the playoffs come.  

 

So then you don't see his ceiling to be much higher than I do.  And I don't know if that's a guy you keep beyond 2015 considering his injury history and his likely new salary. 

[ATLien_]

Dolfan you are crazy AL Horfod is one of the best values in the NBA. He is clearly a top 15-25 player when healthy on a 12m contract; coaches and players would agree. There are a myriad of articles that detail his impact to a team and break it down to a T. Frankly I'm not even sure why we are talking about this unless you are arguing he will never return to his career norms which for me to say is a stretch would be generous.

I'm done arguing the sky is blue with people. Maybe we should trade him to Oklahoma City so they can win a championship. That seems to be our lot in life. Trade the final piece to other teams while we field of dreams about superstars.

[Admin]

Dolfan you are crazy AL Horfod is one of the best values in the NBA. He is clearly a top 15-25 player when healthy on a 12m contract; coaches and players would agree. There are a myriad of articles that detail his impact to a team and break it down to a T. Frankly I'm not even sure why we are talking about this unless you are arguing he will never return to his career norms which for me to say is a stretch would be generous.

I'm done arguing the sky is blue with people. Maybe we should trade him to Oklahoma City so they can win a championship. That seems to be our lot in life. Trade the final piece to other teams while we field of dreams about superstars.

That's the point, he's pretty much at his career norms except for rebounding. And I strongly disagree about a 14 point 6-9 rebound and 1 block guy being top 20 or whatever.

You want a guy who was unquestionably top 20 in his prime? Look no further than Elton Brand as he was a 20/10 machine who could pretty much do it all. Horford has never been close to a guy who could average numbers like that.

Horford has ridden the hype train for a long time and his numbers get inflated because he's such a terrific mid range shooter but here we are 7 years into his career and he's the same average defender and rebounder that he was as a rookie and he still has a nearly non existent post game. If he's not getting set up on a PnR or PnP he's probably not getting us any points. That is not the mark of a top player.

Look I like Horford and think he's a great guy and teammate and he's a good player but he's just nothing special and he's not likely to get any better after 2 major injuries and getting older and considering his lack of development up to this point.

[AHF]

Dolfan you are crazy AL Horfod is one of the best values in the NBA. He is clearly a top 15-25 player when healthy on a 12m contract; coaches and players would agree. There are a myriad of articles that detail his impact to a team and break it down to a T. Frankly I'm not even sure why we are talking about this unless you are arguing he will never return to his career norms which for me to say is a stretch would be generous.

I'm done arguing the sky is blue with people. Maybe we should trade him to Oklahoma City so they can win a championship. That seems to be our lot in life. Trade the final piece to other teams while we field of dreams about superstars.

 

I like Al and want to keep him on a reasonable deal if he can stay healthy.  His injuries are such that I think that is a possibility.  If he went to OKC he could definitely win some rings and push them over the top but the engine behind those championships would be Durant and, to a lesser extent, Westbrook.  Al would make a great 3rd wheel but doesn't make for a championship headliner or co-headliner.

[macdaddy]

That's the point, he's pretty much at his career norms except for rebounding. And I strongly disagree about a 14 point 6-9 rebound and 1 block guy being top 20 or whatever.

You want a guy who was unquestionably top 20 in his prime? Look no further than Elton Brand as he was a 20/10 machine who could pretty much do it all. Horford has never been close to a guy who could average numbers like that.

Horford has ridden the hype train for a long time and his numbers get inflated because he's such a terrific mid range shooter but here we are 7 years into his career and he's the same average defender and rebounder that he was as a rookie and he still has a nearly non existent post game. If he's not getting set up on a PnR or PnP he's probably not getting us any points. That is not the mark of a top player.

Look I like Horford and think he's a great guy and teammate and he's a good player but he's just nothing special and he's not likely to get any better after 2 major injuries and getting older and considering his lack of development up to this point.

 

His numbers get inflated because he's a terrific mid range shooter?  How is that inflated?  I guess Korver's numbers are inflated because he shoots the 3 so well?   I wish more guys would inflate their numbers by actually scoring.   

 

Anyway, I agree that he's not going to get better than what we've seen the last 6 years but that's pretty damn good and well worth 12 million as much as you want to down play it.   

[nathan2331]

I can't believe this many people have already turned their back Horford. The guys been our best player for a while, and now we want to put him in the same category as guys like Kanter and Jordan Hill.

@Dolfan23, don't just disregard his midrange game as some little trick, he's probably the best shooter (at least big man) from that range. His efficiency shouldn't be overlooked either. Not many players can average 18 points with Al's efficiency. His days at center might be coming to an end, but it is to soon to say he can't be better than he was last year.

[Admin]

I can't believe this many people have already turned their back Horford. The guys been our best player for a while, and now we want to put him in the same category as guys like Kanter and Jordan Hill.

@Dolfan23, don't just disregard his midrange game as some little trick, he's probably the best shooter (at least big man) from that range. His efficiency shouldn't be overlooked either. Not many players can average 18 points with Al's efficiency. His days at center might be coming to an end, but it is to soon to say he can't be better than he was last year.

 

He's not a saint. It's not a crime to compare him to guys who put up the same numbers as he does. I don't know when this became sacred cow squawk but it's not. 

 

He's a terrific shooter. I'm not taking away his 1 trick that he's got. I'm just thankful he's got that or he'd be riding the bench. And yes a lot of guys could average 18 points with a high enough usage and a great mid-range shot. I mean seriously guys it's not like he's having to work for his points. He's scoring the vast majority on wide open elbow and baseline jumpers that his teammates are setting him up for. 

 

Can we please try and be objective about our players?

[Admin]

His numbers get inflated because he's a terrific mid range shooter?  How is that inflated?  I guess Korver's numbers are inflated because he shoots the 3 so well?   I wish more guys would inflate their numbers by actually scoring.   

 

Anyway, I agree that he's not going to get better than what we've seen the last 6 years but that's pretty damn good and well worth 12 million as much as you want to down play it.   

 

His advanced metrics are inflated because of his FG%. Many of those rely heavily on shooting %'s. Therefore his great shooting inflate his advanced metrics. Pretty easy to get I think. 

 

So just to get a clear picture, you're more than happy paying 12 million for 14 points, 9 rebounds and 1 block? 

[willthepureshooter]

Did you guys know that the majority of baskets scored in the post by Horford were assisted? Now that's funny fact to me.. If Horford was such a good player offensively, wouldn't majority of his made shots under the basket come from his post skill sets? I've never seen a player so depended on the system and other players to get baskets like AL Horford. Karl Malone, Brad Miller (identical player to All), Shareef Abdur-Rahim, and Kevin Garnett were all pick and roll players that could work skillfully in the post. If Al' s shot doesn't fall, he is totally out of the game unless assisted.

[ATLien_]

His advanced metrics are inflated because of his FG%. Many of those rely heavily on shooting %'s. Therefore his great shooting inflate his advanced metrics. Pretty easy to get I think.

So just to get a clear picture, you're more than happy paying 12 million for 14 points, 9 rebounds and 1 block?

Again if that's all you think AL Horford is worth we are miles apart. He is one of the most complete bigs in the NBA. If you want him to score more raise his usage. His efficiency won't change much.

His role has changed drastically this year. I doesn't appear coach Bud wants him to be the center of the offense like last year. I'm on my phone so I'm going to stop here.

[macdaddy]

His advanced metrics are inflated because of his FG%. Many of those rely heavily on shooting %'s. Therefore his great shooting inflate his advanced metrics. Pretty easy to get I think. 

 

So just to get a clear picture, you're more than happy paying 12 million for 14 points, 9 rebounds and 1 block? 

 

I'm happy to pay Al Horford 12 million.   Absolutely.    The metrics don't seem very advanced if they are rendered useless by guys making shots.   You use the word inflated in my view to imply that his advanced metrics make him look better than he is because he's a good shooter.   Aren't these metrics developed precisely to weigh the importance of all aspects of the game?  Isn't the whole point that they are inflation proof?   

 

I like Al so sure maybe i have bias but i think using his current subpar play, while he's not 100% to rewrite whether he's ever been good is silly.   To say we were better with Zaza as our center than Al is a notion supported by no one I know.  Certainly not Woody, LD, Ferry or Bud.   To say he's not a difference maker other than we would have gone on to the second round last year if he was playing makes no sense.

[Admin]

Again if that's all you think AL Horford is worth we are miles apart. He is one of the most complete bigs in the NBA. If you want him to score more raise his usage. His efficiency won't change much.

His role has changed drastically this year. I doesn't appear coach Bud wants him to be the center of the offense like last year. I'm on my phone so I'm going to stop here.

Complete? In what way is he complete? Block shots? Average. Rebound? Average. Score in the post? Below average. Please tell me what he's so good at that we can't replace with Payne.

[Admin]

I'm happy to pay Al Horford 12 million. Absolutely. The metrics don't seem very advanced if they are rendered useless by guys making shots. You use the word inflated in my view to imply that his advanced metrics make him look better than he is because he's a good shooter. Aren't these metrics developed precisely to weigh the importance of all aspects of the game? Isn't the whole point that they are inflation proof?

I like Al so sure maybe i have bias but i think using his current subpar play, while he's not 100% to rewrite whether he's ever been good is silly. To say we were better with Zaza as our center than Al is a notion supported by no one I know. Certainly not Woody, LD, Ferry or Bud. To say he's not a difference maker other than we would have gone on to the second round last year if he was playing makes no sense.

I never said he's never been good. But his career numbers are far from special. How's that even debatable? 14/9/1 is nothing to brag about. Hell Zaza was close to that as a starter back when he was young.

And yes the advanced metrics like win shares and per rely on shooting %'s so guys like Al look better.

[High5]

Horford before the second injury was a bargain at $12MM. He had one of the best contracts in the NBA. We're going to have to wait and see what becomes of him now. 

[Admin]

Under the old crazy contracts CBA certainly. Hard to say if that's a bargain anymore.

[AHF]

Under the old crazy contracts CBA certainly. Hard to say if that's a bargain anymore.

 

I don't think that is going to change as the NBA TV deals go into effect.

[Admin]

I don't think that is going to change as the NBA TV deals go into effect.

It might not but its too early to say for sure.