ESPN Projections - Podcast

[AHF]

http://www.peachtreehoops.com/2016/8/25/12636846/atlanta-hawks-podcast-locked-on-hawks-espn-rpm-dennis-Schröder-bob-rathbun

Holy crap.  ESPN's Kevin Pelton's mathematical projection for the Hawks is 38.6 wins.  He has them behind the Bucks and Hornets.  Pelton apparently has said he doesn't buy the projection for this team.

[AHF]

Brad Rowland says he projects them higher but that this is "very plausible" for him.

[AHF]

Pelton's analysis based on ESPN's RPM stat.  (Calling it into question).

Rathburn - Thinks this team will be good if Dennis emerges.  Defense should be very good.  -- Al left $23M to go to Boston.  He and his agent wanted max money - weren't as concerned about where they would get it from.  Wanted the seal of approval that he was a max player.  Thanks for everything Al - but he wanted to leave.  Thinks Dwight has a chance to reclaim lost luster.  Should be excellent on D and should present an interior threat we didn't have before that will open up shots for others on the perimeter.   Can't remember the last time we had a center who was a threat in the low post - maybe since Willis and Moses Malone.  

[Sothron]

Deke was a nominal threat in the middle, he did have a low post game. I wish he had gotten that baby hook to land better.

I think we're a 45-50 win team if healthy. There's going to be stretches where Dennis is going to show that yes, he's a first time starter and people will rail about a veteran point but those stretches are necessary learning pains.

[Guest]

25 minutes ago, AHF said:

Pelton's analysis based on ESPN's RPM stat.  (Calling it into question).

Rathburn - Thinks this team will be good if Dennis emerges.  Defense should be very good.  -- Al left $23M to go to Boston.  He and his agent wanted max money - weren't as concerned about where they would get it from.  Wanted the seal of approval that he was a max player.  Thanks for everything Al - but he wanted to leave.  Thinks Dwight has a chance to reclaim lost luster.  Should be excellent on D and should present an interior threat we didn't have before that will open up shots for others on the perimeter.   Can't remember the last time we had a center who was a threat in the low post - maybe since Willis and Moses Malone.  

Ya I agree. Don't think Willis ever played center though I wish he had. Fratello, Weiss and Lenny never experimented with it. I think coaches were much more scared to take risks back then, but if we had gone Willis and center, it would have opened up a lot of other areas for us, possibly being able to get John Battle or another shooter into the starting lineup at the time. 

 

But getting back to the topic, I'm really excited about having a post presence in the middle with Dwight. I think our season looks way brighter than 38.6 wins, I'm sorry that's insanely low. I honestly think around 45-50 sounds right. 

[High5]

A team with Sap, Howard, and Bud should win about 38 games by default (if healthy/sober). Any positive contributions we get from anyone else should increase that number. 

[Dejay]

I think a beaten up Hawks team wins 38 games in the East. With the team healthy? At least the same amount as last year, which gets you the division and homecourt in the first round...

Edited August 26, 2016 by Dejay

[Germantor]

22 minutes ago, High5 said:

A team with Sap, Howard, and Bud should win about 38 games by default (if healthy/sober). Any positive contributions we get from anyone else should increase that number. 

Sober....lol

[Guest]

In Bud's first year running a new system with new players (Paul and DMC) and Pero as a starter because of Al's 2nd tt tear, backups like Gustavo, old man Brand and Cartier Martin - we won 38 games even with all those injuries. 

How in hell you predict 38 wins with THIS team.

[macdaddy]

26 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

In Bud's first year running a new system with new players (Paul and DMC) and Pero as a starter because of Al's 2nd tt tear, backups like Gustavo, old man Brand and Cartier Martin - we won 38 games even with all those injuries. 

How in hell you predict 38 wins with THIS team.

That's a great point.   The only thing I'd say is I think there are more teams trying  to win in the east now than there were that year.   Still, It's hard to see this team performing significantly worse than say the Pistons last year.   We're better at almost every position.  

[BigDog90]

5 hours ago, AHF said:

Pelton's analysis based on ESPN's RPM stat.  (Calling it into question).

Rathburn - Thinks this team will be good if Dennis emerges.  Defense should be very good.  -- Al left $23M to go to Boston.  He and his agent wanted max money - weren't as concerned about where they would get it from.  Wanted the seal of approval that he was a max player.  Thanks for everything Al - but he wanted to leave.  Thinks Dwight has a chance to reclaim lost luster.  Should be excellent on D and should present an interior threat we didn't have before that will open up shots for others on the perimeter.   Can't remember the last time we had a center who was a threat in the low post - maybe since Willis and Moses Malone.  

Yeah, Dennis is key. Finally somebody respectable say the defense won't be bad. Yeah, I wouldn't have expected Al to be money hungry, I figured he wanted to be in a winning opportunity but I guess he'll be glad to retire with two college rings. Yeah, Dwight should be good. I want to see him be great.

[Thomas]

A lot is riding on Dennis no doubt and there certainly are going to be bumps in the road early but between him and the coaches it should come together after twenty games or so. Getting to the playoffs being the first order of business and by that time maybe we are gelled enough to really make a dent or more against the Cavs. Quite the obstacle but it is the challenge thats not going away because of the new contract now for you know who.

[NBASupes]

I got them at 38 wins. A tad lower than 38.6.

[macdaddy]

3 hours ago, NBASupes said:

I got them at 38 wins. A tad lower than 38.6.

I"ll take that bet.   

[AHF]

3 hours ago, NBASupes said:

I got them at 38 wins. A tad lower than 38.6.

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, AHF said:

Lmao

[Lurker]

I've got the Hawks at 45-50 wins but if Budenholzer continues to use the aggressive trapping defense outside of late shot clock and situational times, it could very well be 38 wins. They do not have the personnel to do that as much but if they limit Kyle's minutes, they shouldn't have to. Heck, they really didn't have the personnel to do it last year either but had to since Bud felt he had to play Kyle a lot of minutes. The problem with that defense is it ended up involving players that are too slow to rotate back to shooters when they had to.

[Guest]

On 8/26/2016 at 0:22 PM, AHF said:

Can't remember the last time we had a center who was a threat in the low post - maybe since Willis and Moses Malone.  

 

  "Thas why I hate y'all.  Always throwin' that low-key shade 'n sh*t.  Selltic fans don't do that ..."

 

Quote

" ... they can beat this team because (Al) Horford, as much as you think he’s a great player, he’s not a great player. Get a man on him and he has trouble scoring.” - Selltic great, Thomas Heinsohn

 

  "Aw, he was jus' playin'"

 

On 8/26/2016 at 3:23 PM, JayBirdHawk said:

In Bud's first year running a new system with new players (Paul and DMC) and Pero as a starter because of Al's 2nd tt tear, backups like Gustavo, old man Brand and Cartier Martin - we won 38 games even with all those injuries. 

How in hell you predict 38 wins with THIS team.

Preach Sistah Soljah.

1 hour ago, AHF said:

 When did you start being semi-funny?  Finally got that offseason stick-ectomy to remove that *ahem* growth from your rear?  Funny, it coincided with Dolf's disappearance. 

On topic, JBird is right (for once).  We backed into 38 wins with that hodge-podge team.  Even in an East that is slightly better now, 38 wins should be doable with one eye closed.

[AHF]

1 hour ago, Lurker said:

I've got the Hawks at 45-50 wins but if Budenholzer continues to use the aggressive trapping defense outside of late shot clock and situational times, it could very well be 38 wins. They do not have the personnel to do that as much but if they limit Kyle's minutes, they shouldn't have to. Heck, they really didn't have the personnel to do it last year either but had to since Bud felt he had to play Kyle a lot of minutes. The problem with that defense is it ended up involving players that are too slow to rotate back to shooters when they had to.

I think Bud has been running schemes to try to optimize the personnel we have had and we've just had to make some tradeoffs given our limitations.  He will be adjusting what we do on both offense and defense this year to match our latest roster.  I'm confident we'll see some "new" looks from the team this season.

[AHF]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

Just saw that Gene Wilder passed today.  

Amazing career with some bona fide classics like Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, Blazing Saddles, and Young Frankenstein.  

RIP