When you get to the peak of what you are trying to do. It's time for the rebuild

[NBASupes]

Simple as the title. If management thinks we have peaked, it might be time for rebuilding. What do you think we should do?

[benhillboy]

Hell if I know.  When top-tier FAs don't consider you, you draft mediocre at best, and your top 31 year old trade chip also needs a new deal your hands are pretty much tied.  I used to be vehemently opposed to tanking but a decade has passed since we been "treadmillin."  I don't see the point of continuing it when we're non-competitive versus the current elites.  Some here can make a respectable argument that we could be in a series but I wouldn't.  

Secondly, the Hawks have a poorer outlook on talent level than the Bucks, Wolves, Sixers, and Jazz, barring any more catastrophic injury of course in Milwaukee and Philly.  Let alone the talent level of the Warriors core who's still not in their prime yet.

I hear the next couple drafts gonna be loaded.  If that's true, do whatevers necessary to acquire the pick that can secure the next once-in-a-generational Hawk talent.  We about to skip a generation over here.

Edited February 12, 2017 by benhillboy

[Lurker]

Tim Hardaway Jr has been good but skipping a draft is just not smart management.

What also isn't smart management is picking Payne and Jenkins.

I'd look to trade Bazemore and Howard if possible and try again with the halfway build with other players instead of going with one direction only but this really smells like the 2014 Braves in that a huge firesale is coming eventually (and one that was likely necessary no matter how mad you were at it, that was a mediocre team). But when you do that, you HAVE to play your young players instead of being very balky at it.

Edited February 12, 2017 by Lurker

[Sothron]

I said for years we needed to trade and rebuild. Now ppl want to come over to my side of the table.

This team would have to really strip some players to do a full rebuild. Our main issue is our horrible production on both ends at SF. If we even got average consistent play there our team does so much better. We should keep THJR, Millsap and roll with them and Howard and Dennis. That is not a bad team. We have shown we can literally beat the best teams in the NBA when the team is clicking.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Question 1:  What is the goal for the rebuild?

 

People throw this term out there like it is easy to do.  It isn't,   Because if you can't draft potential All-Star caliber players ( no matter where you're picking ) . . . and you can't attract major free agents to the team, you will constantly be in rebuilding mode anyway.   And if you mess up the rebuild, you could be bad for 5 - 10 years

If we lose Millsap and Howard, and don't get quality young talent at their respective positions, this franchise is dead in the water for years to come.  What the Hawks should do instead, is go ALL OUT to maximize the potential of this roster, before giving up on it.  And that's the one thing the Hawks management haven't been willing to do.

The Hawks are a lot like the Memphis Grizzlies.  They're a solid franchise that is going to at or near one of the top 8 - 10 teams in the league on a yearly basis.  And to appease their fan base, they need to put a quality product out on the floor, even if they have no shot at beating the elite teams in the conference.

People have said that they should bust it down and rebuild too.  But they didn't.  Instead, they made Mike Conley one of the highest paid players in the league, even if he's not worth it.  They've been bad before.  REAL BAD.  And they never want to go back to that place again.

 

Question 2:  If you're in favor of a rebuild, what team would you emulate, and why?

[TheNorthCydeRises]

4 hours ago, Lurker said:

Tim Hardaway Jr has been good but skipping a draft is just not smart management.

What also isn't smart management is picking Payne and Jenkins.

I'd look to trade Bazemore and Howard if possible and try again with the halfway build with other players instead of going with one direction only but this really smells like the 2014 Braves in that a huge firesale is coming eventually (and one that was likely necessary no matter how mad you were at it, that was a mediocre team). But when you do that, you HAVE to play your young players instead of being very balky at it.

Now we're getting into the nitty gritty of the problem.  The draft.   So let's look at it since the Joe Johnson trade   1st round picks in RED.

 

2012:

- John Jenkins ( 23rd ):  ( D ) . . . Drafted to be a sharpshooter in the potential loss of Joe Johnson, Jenkins never materialized in that role.  Too small to be a decent defender, and really not a good enough shooter to be allowed on the floor, Jenkins only lasted 3 years in ATL.  He's most famous for that black suit he used to wear on the bench, when he wasn't dressed to play.  These days, Johnny Cash is doing his thing with the Knicks . . . the Weschester Knicks of the D-League.

- Mike Scott ( 43rd ):  ( C+ )  . . . Production wise, his career has been equivalent to a low 1st round pick in his first 3 years in the league.  The 2016 - 17 campaign, however, has been a disaster for Scott.  Injuries kept him out of the lineup at the start of the season, and he hasn't retained his offensive game to be a contributor off the bench.  Now he can't even crack the rotation, with the emergence of Mike Muscala assuming his "shooting PF" role.  With this being the last year of his deal, his NBA career may be in jeopardy.

Possible Misses:   Jae Crowder ( 34th ) . . . Draymond Green ( 35th ) . . . Khris Middleton ( 39th )

 

2013:

- Lucas Noguiera ( 16th ):  ( C- )  . . . traded away and really never given a chance to be a contributor.  Currently a decent defensive center off the bench in Toronto

- Dennis Schroder ( 17th ): ( A- ) . . . quickly established himself by Year 2 as a guy who can contribute in a big way.  Became the Hawks starting PG in Year 4, and one of the best young PGs in the league.

- Mike Muscala  ( 44th ):  ( C+ ) . . . a non-factor in his first 3 seasons as a spot role player, he finally became a main contributor off the bench as a stretch 4.

Possible Misses:   Tim Hardaway ( 24th )  . . Rudy Gobert ( 27th )

 

2014:

- Adreian Payne ( 15th ):  ( F ) . . . drafted to be a stretch 4/5 to bring off the bench.  Foot injury and multiple D-League assignments only saw him play 3 games as a Hawk.  Management smartly trades him away for value, before the T-Wolves realize that this guy just couldn't cut it.  Currently out with a blood condition, and his career is uncertain.

- Walter Tavares ( 43rd ):  ( F ) . . . After parting ways with Bebe, the Hawks once again looked to bring on a "project" rim protector.  Spent his 1st year overseas.  While showing a little promise in Summer League and in D-League stints, Edy only plays in 12 games as a Hawk.  Waived on Halloween 2016 and is now completely out of the league.

Possible Misses:   Gary Harris ( 19th ) . . Rodney Hood ( 23rd ) . . Nikola Jokie ( 41st ) . . Jordan Clarkston ( 46th )

 

2015:

- *** Tim Hardaway Jr. *** - via the Kelly Oubre trade ( 15th ):  ( A- ) . . . Hawks said they had Hardaway Jr on their radar for a while, so when they had a chance to trade for him, they did just that.   What looked like a very shaky move when made, has turned out to be one of the biggest acquisitions for the Hawks in recent years. Question now is, can they retain him, because he may get big money out on the open market.  As for Oubre, he's slowing getting better, but not on the level of Hardaway Jr just yet.

- Marcus Erikkson ( 50th ):  ( I )

- Dimitrious Agravanis ( 59th ):  ( I )

Possible Misses:  NONE . . . the Hardaway Jr trade was the best possible outcome for the Hawks.  If we lose Hardaway Jr though, this turns into an F draft.

 

2016:

- *** Taurean Prince *** - via Jeff Teague trade - ( 12th ):  ( C- ) . . . What looked like a player that could easily crack the rotation and be a contributor off the bench, has quickly turned into a project that can't see the floor.  Prince has shown flashes of offensive ability, but looks completely lost on defense, which has kept him off the floor.   May have to wait until Year 2 to see if he's a bust or not.

- Deandre Bembry ( 21st ):  ( C+ ) . . . Bembry's rookie year has gone the opposite of Prince's.  He started out buried on the bench, only to see his playing time pick up to the point that he's been in the rotation, especially since Sefolosha's injury.  His defense makes him more comfortable for Bud to trust with playing time, while his offense consists of slashing to the basket.

- Isaia Cordinier ( 44th ):  ( I )

Possible Misses:  NONE . . . because the 2016 Draft may turn out to be the weakest draft in NBA history.  Currently, no rookies are averaging 10 ppg, and the #1 pick ( Ben Simmons ) hasn't played a game yet.  Maybe most of these guys will get a chance in Year 2 of their career, to be major contributors.

 

Right now, the biggest misses of the Hawks look to be  ( ironically ) in the Danny Ferry era.  

I understand WHY Jenkins was drafted, even though the need at that time was ( you guess it . . . at SF ).  His teammate, Jeff Taylor, would've been the better pick at the time, but we chose Jenkins.  But the good GMs are able to find good talent, no matter where they pick in the draft.  So when you see that we missed out on Green, Crowder, and Middleton, you see the talent that we missed out on.  While Green gets the headlines because of his role in Golden State, Khris Middleton may be the best player of the 3.  Had he not gotten hurt at the beginning of the season, Milwaukee may be in the top 5 of the East.   He's on his way back though, so we'll see how that helps the Bucks, especially since they lost Jabari Parker.

Choosing Bebe over Gobert, and the horrible pick of choosing Payne over Rodney Hood, were the type of decisions that cripple the depth of a team.   Maybe with Gobert, there's no need to spend a ton of money on Dwight Howard, which would give this team a lot more flexibility.   

Not having Rodney Hood though, is the biggest error.  That's the SF the Hawks could've used, instead of another stretch 4 in Payne.   He single-handedly could've prevented the Hawks from giving a major contract to Kent Bazemore.  And Hood would've still been on his rookie contract this season.

At the end of the day, teams can't afford to pick for "need" in the draft, if they don't have star players at other positions.   I'm in the midset that a team should ALWAYS draft the best player available, no matter how deep you are at that position.  If that player can't crack your rotation, but is still a good player, deal him for a vet that you know can help you.   But you should always draft the talented young player of a young need player that may have less talent.

[Lurker]

At the risk of turning this into a mock draft thread, while you should pick players that fit your system in theory, you shouldn't just pick old college players. You should also consider younger players that you think could fit your system.

I think I'd target a young big man in this year's draft (even if you plan on resigning Paul Millsap) or if he falls to ATL, Terrance Ferguson (he'd likely be a one season project for sure though before playing). There are a lot of good looking young big man prospects in the draft.

Edited February 13, 2017 by Lurker

[BigDog90]

10 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

Question 1:  What is the goal for the rebuild?

 

People throw this term out there like it is easy to do.  It isn't,   Because if you can't draft potential All-Star caliber players ( no matter where you're picking ) . . . and you can't attract major free agents to the team, you will constantly be in rebuilding mode anyway.   And if you mess up the rebuild, you could be bad for 5 - 10 years

If we lose Millsap and Howard, and don't get quality young talent at their respective positions, this franchise is dead in the water for years to come.  What the Hawks should do instead, is go ALL OUT to maximize the potential of this roster, before giving up on it.  And that's the one thing the Hawks management haven't been willing to do.

The Hawks are a lot like the Memphis Grizzlies.  They're a solid franchise that is going to at or near one of the top 8 - 10 teams in the league on a yearly basis.  And to appease their fan base, they need to put a quality product out on the floor, even if they have no shot at beating the elite teams in the conference.

People have said that they should bust it down and rebuild too.  But they didn't.  Instead, they made Mike Conley one of the highest paid players in the league, even if he's not worth it.  They've been bad before.  REAL BAD.  And they never want to go back to that place again.

 

Question 2:  If you're in favor of a rebuild, what team would you emulate, and why?

GS. As the Hawks got away from small ball, the NBA has embraced small ball. 

[yungsta]

4 hours ago, BigDog90 said:

GS. As the Hawks got away from small ball, the NBA has embraced small ball. 

We went away from it because we were a small ball team that couldn't score when needed. Small ball only works if you can put on an offensive blitzkrieg and score 110 a night.

Side by side comparison of offensive numbers from this year and last year hasn't even changed that much. This year our offensive rating is 103.3 while last year our offensive rating is 103.0.

[Guest]

14 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

Right now, the biggest misses of the Hawks look to be  ( ironically ) in the Danny Ferry era.  

Ding, ding, ding!!  I told folks all along that Ferry's terribad drafting is why we are what we are right now.  Spursian "development" is cute and all but it totally ignores the real reason that team excels ... uh, they have 2 #1 picks that panned out to HOF players!!

Newsflash: The elite teams are 'elite' mainly because they're getting an inordinate amount of production from dudes either on rookie deals or who're on their first big contract, i.e. are still young/highly-productive.

Who fits that category on our team?  Dennis (for the most part) and THJr.  Everybody else is either old, overpaid (w.r.t. their production), or both.

I'm still cool with Howard.  He is what he was expected to be and is on a bargain(sic, circa 2017) contract, relatively speaking.

Should we pack it in?  It feels that way, but the reality of the situation is no team in the East, other than CLE, is head/shoulders above us.  What if emoLove and Kyme go down with injuries ... again?  A potential Finals berth is still on the table at that point.  Do we trade that for the off chance that some rando mid-lotto guy pans out?

I'm usually in lock-step with ol' crazy @Sothron on this but I don't think tankbuilding, at this point, is the moov.  Probably cause I'm not overly impressed with any of these hot-shot '17 draft guys.  Plus, they're all me-first point guards for the most part!  That doesn't help us.  The Ball kid is the only one that's a team player but his jumpshot looks like Charles Broccoli's golf swing.  If we acquired a lotto pick, it'll probably be traded.

[macdaddy]

We aren't good enough offensively to compete in the playoffs.  Not even close unless Hardaway can start consistently turning in big games.   

But to the point, we should be taking a chance on some kind of scorer.  Even if they aren't currently a star we should find someone through any channel (trade, FA, draft) that has that potential.   I'm not a big fan of tearing it down but standing pat is certainly not an option.  

And it's a mistake to think this team is going to be more competitive against the elite.  Look at our schedule.  We haven't beaten a good team in about 6 weeks.  

[Sothron]

27 minutes ago, kg01 said:

Ding, ding, ding!!  I told folks all along that Ferry's terribad drafting is why we are what we are right now.  Spursian "development" is cute and all but it totally ignores the real reason that team excels ... uh, they have 2 #1 picks that panned out to HOF players!!

Newsflash: The elite teams are 'elite' mainly because they're getting an inordinate amount of production from dudes either on rookie deals or who're on their first big contract, i.e. are still young/highly-productive.

Who fits that category on our team?  Dennis (for the most part) and THJr.  Everybody else is either old, overpaid (w.r.t. their production), or both.

I'm still cool with Howard.  He is what he was expected to be and is on a bargain(sic, circa 2017) contract, relatively speaking.

Should we pack it in?  It feels that way, but the reality of the situation is no team in the East, other than CLE, is head/shoulders above us.  What if emoLove and Kyme go down with injuries ... again?  A potential Finals berth is still on the table at that point.  Do we trade that for the off chance that some rando mid-lotto guy pans out?

I'm usually in lock-step with ol' crazy @Sothron on this but I don't think tankbuilding, at this point, is the moov.  Probably cause I'm not overly impressed with any of these hot-shot '17 draft guys.  Plus, they're all me-first point guards for the most part!  That doesn't help us.  The Ball kid is the only one that's a team player but his jumpshot looks like Charles Broccoli's golf swing.  If we acquired a lotto pick, it'll probably be traded.

For the record I am not in favor of tanking with this current team. We have put too many chips on the table at this point to fold and go home. We need to go all in. Trade for a reliable SF and let's roll with this team.

[Guest]

 

Just now, Sothron said:

For the record I am not in favor of tanking with this current team. We have put too many chips on the table at this point to fold and go home. We need to go all in. Trade for a reliable SF and let's roll with this team.

Gallinari is on the block if we can't get sMelo.  Too bad we lack assets to get Gallo.  We just lack assets, again, because Dan E. Ferry trying to get too cute with the draft.

"Ooh, this guy's ready to contribute right away.  He had a 2-year Mormon mission so he's like 32 with a wife and kids so he'll be able to slide right into the rotation.  Nah, you can keep that 1-and-done potential all-star.  Ew"

[Sothron]

Dano is only a decent weak side defender at this point. I'd rather have Chandler.  I watch a lot of Nuggets games. We'd rather have Chandler.

[macdaddy]

I understand that the chances of the Bulls trading Butler are very slim, but i'd try a an offer that they can't refuse.  Dennis/Tim/Prince and a 1st and 2nd (plus filler).    Maybe they'd bite.   The dude is only 27 years old.   

[macdaddy]

6 minutes ago, Sothron said:

Dano is only a decent weak side defender at this point. I'd rather have Chandler.  I watch a lot of Nuggets games. We'd rather have Chandler.

I'd be happy with that move too.   Not going to put us in the finals but should make us competitive.  

[Guest]

Just a weird aside, anybody notice Lamarcus Aldridge has declined this year?  In the whole Sap-for-LMA discussion, the Spurs would probably have to add value to make it a 'yes' from us.

[jy23]

At this point they're not going to tank so it's a moot point. We don't have any young assets to really make any moves worth talking about so I don't know what we do at this point. Maybe on draft night we can try and package a couple of these 2nd round picks into something of value 

[Guest]

Per Schmitty ...

on the Hawks:

Budz is a great coach.  Had him in SA.  They will find a way to win.  They'll make it through the first round, maybe even through the 2nd.  The question becomes, do they have enough to go further than that?  No, not unless they add someone.  I just don't know how much they have left as far as trade-bait to upgrade.

Figured it was interesting to add here.

[REHawksFan]

On 2/13/2017 at 9:26 AM, Sothron said:

For the record I am not in favor of tanking with this current team. We have put too many chips on the table at this point to fold and go home. We need to go all in. Trade for a reliable SF and let's roll with this team.

Since you brought up the poker angle.....I feel like the Hawks are that weird dude at the end of the table that spends all night check-calling going broke as a joke cuz he's too damn scared to push his dwindling pile into the middle.  Man up, dammit.

 

Edited February 14, 2017 by REHawksFan