Prediction time

[Peoriabird]

Just now, AHF said:

I'm predicting increased ppg but decreased FG/3pt% unless he fundamentally continues to improve his shot -- which is possible.  I fully expect other teams will mark him more closely and will ignore the other players on the court to a greater extent than they did when Millsap and Timmy were out there.

Tim didn't start until the last 20 games or so of the season so you can't count him...as far as Millsap is concerned is he a great scorer?  Has he ever averaged 20 points per game at any time in his career? My prediction is that Dennis' efficiency will improve as his 3 point shot continue to improve

[AHF]

1 hour ago, Peoriabird said:

Tim didn't start until the last 20 games or so of the season so you can't count him...as far as Millsap is concerned is he a great scorer?  Has he ever averaged 20 points per game at any time in his career? My prediction is that Dennis' efficiency will improve as his 3 point shot continue to improve

Both Tim and Sap played all season with Dennis.  Who cares if they start or not?  THJr averaged 27 mpg last season - significant time as a secondary ballhandler and scorer.  They both are viable offensive options who drew attention and Dennis won't have that cover.

We lost our #1, #3, and #4 scorers from last season.  I think that will put more defensive attention on Dennis which will apply downward pressure on his efficiency.  Hope you are the one who is right on his shooting %s but increased efficiency is not my prediction without a fundamental leap in his shooting mechanics (which is possible at his age). 

[StephenHawking]

21 Dennis 

12 Baze

10 Prince

14 Ilyasova 

8 Dedmon

13 Collins

5 Belinelli 

8 Muscala 

9 Bembry

 

 

Edited July 28, 2017 by StephenHawking

[Peoriabird]

6 minutes ago, StephenHawking said:

21 Dennis 

12 Baze

10 Prince

14 Ilyasova 

8 Dedmon

13 Collins

5 Belinelli 

8 Muscala 

9 Bembry

 

 

No points from the backup point guard position?

[StephenHawking]

Just now, Peoriabird sagte:

No points from the backup point guard position?

Haha Delaney seems unpredictable to me. Moreover the point total I shared between the players is already 100pts. So whatever he'll score none. Doesn't matter.

[thecampster]

2 hours ago, AHF said:

It is frequently the case that more attempts combined with more defensive attention translates to worse shots and worse shooting %s.

See, you had me till right there.  Dennis shouldn't be looking to "score more". The increased attention should lead to more finishing opportunities for others..be that dunks for Collins or spot up jumpers for everyone.

 

A more realistic line for Dennis is the same 18 ppg but 8 assists. If Dennis is scoring 21+, we're in very real trouble.

[Peoriabird]

1 minute ago, thecampster said:

If Dennis is scoring 21+, we're in very real trouble.

There are plenty of point guards scoring over 20 ppg and its good for their respective teams so I'm not sure what is meant by your statement.

[Alex]

Dennis:  21 PPG on terrible all around shooting.  Under 40% from the field and under 30% from three.

Bazemore:  14 PPG on terrible all around shooting.  Comparable to Dennis shooting numbers.

Prince:  12 PPG on decent shooting.  45% from the field and 40% from deep.  I think he will get open looks from distance and hit them at a good clip, just not a ton of makes from out there.  

[Peoriabird]

18 minutes ago, Alex said:

Dennis:  21 PPG on terrible all around shooting.  Under 40% from the field and under 30% from three.

 

You forgot to add the 10 turnover to 3 assist per game...what did this kid do to this fan base???

[Alex]

12 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

You forgot to add the 10 turnover to 3 assist per game...what did this kid do to this fan base???

I think the moment is too big for him and he cannot be the focal point of any offense.  He's a good complimentary player, but not a building block.

[Packfill]

3 hours ago, Peoriabird said:

Tim didn't start until the last 20 games or so of the season so you can't count him...as far as Millsap is concerned is he a great scorer?  Has he ever averaged 20 points per game at any time in his career? My prediction is that Dennis' efficiency will improve as his 3 point shot continue to improve

Millsap has never averaged 20 pts per game in an NBA season.  That said, Millsap was clearly the focus of opponents defensive efforts - and it is his overall game which makes him such a valuable and important player.  With Paul gone, and the unproven secondary offensive options the Hawks now have, you can be certain opponents will look to lock down Dennis first and dare the rest of the team to beat them.  It is an easy and obvious strategy.  Because of that increased attention, there is a high probability that Dennis' efficiency drops.  He should still average 20+ a night, because someone has to score.

James Harden's efficiency dropped when he moved from third wheel to top dog in Houston, so saying Dennis is likely to experience a drop in efficiency is really just being reasonable about expectations for this season.

[Diesel]

1 hour ago, Peoriabird said:

There are plenty of point guards scoring over 20 ppg and its good for their respective teams so I'm not sure what is meant by your statement.

He recognizes the very real problem that if Dennis is pushing to 21... with his lowered efficiency against defense focused on him, that means that he's ignoring the rest of his team.. so it's more liable to look like 21 & 4.5 with 39% FG%.

[Diesel]

15 minutes ago, Packfill said:

Millsap has never averaged 20 pts per game in an NBA season.  That said, Millsap was clearly the focus of opponents defensive efforts - and it is his overall game which makes him such a valuable and important player.  With Paul gone, and the unproven secondary offensive options the Hawks now have, you can be certain opponents will look to lock down Dennis first and dare the rest of the team to beat them.  It is an easy and obvious strategy.  Because of that increased attention, there is a high probability that Dennis' efficiency drops.  He should still average 20+ a night, because someone has to score.

James Harden's efficiency dropped when he moved from third wheel to top dog in Houston, so saying Dennis is likely to experience a drop in efficiency is really just being reasonable about expectations for this season.

More specific... Teams will clog the driving lanes.. put pressure on our proven outside shooters and force Dennis to shoot from outside.  I betcha tells fall back on a PNR situation and make Dennis shot the top of the key shot.  Either way, his FG% will drop.   He may even become tentative.  It's easy to be the pack dog when there are other dogs leading.. it's much harder to be the lead dog of a crappy pack. 

[Peoriabird]

45 minutes ago, Diesel said:

He recognizes the very real problem that if Dennis is pushing to 21... with his lowered efficiency against defense focused on him, that means that he's ignoring the rest of his team.. so it's more liable to look like 21 & 4.5 with 39% FG%.

So let me be clear...Dennis took the most shots per game last year but the other team's defense focused more on Millsap and Hardaway???  OK.  Dennis also had a very respectable field goal percentage despite taking the most shots on the team and despite having a center that could not set a routine screen and despite not shooting well from 3 at the beginning of the season.  But y'all chose to think he will get worse?  O.K.  Can't wait for the start of the season.

[AHF]

2 hours ago, thecampster said:

See, you had me till right there.  Dennis shouldn't be looking to "score more". The increased attention should lead to more finishing opportunities for others..be that dunks for Collins or spot up jumpers for everyone.

 

A more realistic line for Dennis is the same 18 ppg but 8 assists. If Dennis is scoring 21+, we're in very real trouble.

Regardless of what should be, I fully expect he will carry more of the offensive load this year and will both shoot and score more. 

[Peoriabird]

4 minutes ago, AHF said:

Regardless of what should be, I fully expect he will carry more of the offensive load this year and will both shoot and score more. 

I don't think that people realize that Dennis averaged 18/6 last year.  so predict that the only improvement in his game will be 2 more assist per game is Atlanta fan like! LOL!

[Lurker]

The worst I see Dennis doing is 41% FG/37% 3PT/86% FT with 4.5 TOs.

 

I mean really. It's a plenty big sample size with him without Millsap and while it's bad it's not absolute garbage, and Hardaway Jr was worse than trash with increased focus on him in the same stretch, yet some think he's a superstar in the making.

[Diesel]

32 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

So let me be clear...Dennis took the most shots per game last year but the other team's defense focused more on Millsap and Hardaway???  OK.  Dennis also had a very respectable field goal percentage despite taking the most shots on the team and despite having a center that could not set a routine screen and despite not shooting well from 3 at the beginning of the season.  But y'all chose to think he will get worse?  O.K.  Can't wait for the start of the season.

First off the problem was that he took the most shots.   He's our PG and not the most efficient player on the team.  He's not a true playmaker... so that's a problem.   However,  moving forward... there are less viable options for him to pass to.  Defenses Know that.  Therefore, they will force Dennis to beat them from outside because they know that his main intent is to drive. 

 

[Peoriabird]

1 minute ago, Diesel said:

First off the problem was that he took the most shots.   He's our PG and not the most efficient player on the team.  He's not a true playmaker... so that's a problem.   However,  moving forward... there are less viable options for him to pass to.  Defenses Know that.  Therefore, they will force Dennis to beat them from outside because they know that his main intent is to drive. 

 

3 words...Pick and roll...That play will be much better this year without Howard in the middle clogging up the offense and setting poor screens.  Plus no one had worse hands on the team than Howard so passes inside won't be fumbled like last year.  3rdly, I'm Sorry..Collins looks like a better offensive player than Sap and ilyasova should be more comfortable with an off season with his teammates.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

8 hours ago, Peoriabird said:

Dennis  21 ppg

Delaney 8ppg

Bazemore 14 ppg

Belinelli 6ppg

Bembry 8ppg

Prince 14ppg

Collin 12ppg

Illyasova 11ppg

Moose 9ppg

Dedmon 10ppg

 

We probably won't average 115 points per game but I'm pretty sure there will be some DNP's in there but those averages sound reasonable.  What do you guys think?

 

 

If this happens, the Hawks are a top 5 seed in the East.