Homecourt Draft Discussion

[KB21]

Just now, Royjr9 said:

So you admit bagley may be a very good prospect. For the record I see the Knicks taking him. 

I think he's a good prospect that will need to be in the right situation to tap into his potential.  He needs to play alongside a floor stretching defender, and he needs a strong point guard to get him the ball in good positions to utilize his athleticism and minimize his lack of shot creation ability.  The best fits for Bagley at the top of the draft are the Grizzlies and the Knicks.  At his best, Bagley can be a lite Amar'e Stoudemire, who was a good rim running big but crappy defender for his career.

[Royjr9]

1 minute ago, KB21 said:

I look at everything, and it just so happens that BPM is the one stat that seems to bear out what you see on the floor.  I'm not big on PER because it doesn't value defense at all, but even it's a better measure than PPG when evaluating a player.

Problem is Beasley is immensely talented and would still go higher. His problem was the off the court stuff. If his head was on right he may have been a totally different player.

[NBASupes]

14 minutes ago, KB21 said:

So, you would take Michael Beasley (26.2 PPG, 12.4 RPG) over Joel Embiid (11.2 PPG, 8.1 RPG).  I tell you what.  Why don't you show me the statistical trend that shows standard PPG is a better indicator of future ability in the NBA than BPM or any other advanced metric.  

I'll take Embiid as he passes the eye test and Beasley was a Trae Young to me. A highly skilled player with a system built around him that doesnt translate all that much. 

But if you are trying to make the comparison of Bagley and JJJ, Bagley is a Durant level prospect and JJJ is Marvin Williams Jr. 

[Buzzard]

Just now, KB21 said:

I look at everything, and it just so happens that BPM is the one stat that seems to bear out what you see on the floor.  I'm not big on PER because it doesn't value defense at all, but even it's a better measure than PPG when evaluating a player.

No KB, you look for something, anything, that makes you appear to be right and ignore everything else. And that everything else is a lot to be oblivious to.

[KB21]

30 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

I'll take Embiid as he passes the eye test and Beasley was a Trae Young to me. A highly skilled player with a system built around him that doesnt translate all that much. 

But if you are trying to make the comparison of Bagley and JJJ, Bagley is a Durant level prospect and JJJ is Marvin Williams Jr. 

Bagley isn't a Durant level prospect because he doesn't have Durant's length, size, shooting ability, or ball handling ability.

[KB21]

31 minutes ago, Buzzard said:

No KB, you look for something, anything, that makes you appear to be right and ignore everything else. And that everything else is a lot to be oblivious to.

Wrong.  I take everything into account.  I just put the proper perspective on the eye test vs advanced analysis.  

[NBASupes]

Just now, KB21 said:

Bagley isn't a Durant level prospect because he doesn't have Durant's length, size, shooting ability, or ball handling ability.

Size? They are the same exact height and at the same age Durant was 212. Bagley is 238 right now. 

Durant doesnt have Bagley athletic ability, explosiveness, or hands. Not to mention Bagley was a better passer, better court vision, and he is a more natural scorer at the college level. 

[KB21]

1 minute ago, NBASupes said:

Size? They are the same exact height and at the same age Durant was 212. Bagley is 238 right now. 

Durant doesnt have Bagley athletic ability, explosiveness, or hands. Not to mention Bagley was a better passer, better court vision, and he is a more natural scorer at the college level. 

When did Bagley measure?  He skipped out on that at the combine.  Probably afraid of having TRex arms.

[Sothron]

49 minutes ago, Buzzard said:

No KB, you look for something, anything, that makes you appear to be right and ignore everything else. And that everything else is a lot to be oblivious to.

That's because he's just ****ing you guys. Since, apparently, calling posters what they literally are is not allowed. Just put him on ignore and enjoy the rest of the squawk.

[Buzzard]

3 minutes ago, Sothron said:

That's because he's just ****ing you guys. Since, apparently, calling posters what they literally are is not allowed. Just put him on ignore and enjoy the rest of the squawk.

I have put him there several times when he becomes downright vulgar with his name calling. He just makes debating a point way to easy with his flip flopping between win/shares and BPM being the true stat that indicates a good to great player.

It is trivial and meaningless but it can be entertaining on boring days!

[NBASupes]

16 minutes ago, KB21 said:

When did Bagley measure?  He skipped out on that at the combine.  Probably afraid of having TRex arms.

His wingspan is longer than Al's at 7'1. T-Rex arms is where your wingspan is shorter than your height. His is a +2. That's excellent for a PF

[NBASupes]

26 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Wrong.  I take everything into account.  I just put the proper perspective on the eye test vs advanced analysis.  

Analytics wise, he is a lot like Marvin. Eye test as well. 

[KB21]

5 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Analytics wise, he is a lot like Marvin. Eye test as well. 

Show me those analytics, particularly considering that they have not calculated BPM for years before 2010.  JJJ was the more efficient scorer despite having a 41% three point rate compared to Marvin's 17.8 three point rate.  They are not even remotely similar.  If you ask anyone credible who evaluates these players like Sam Vecenie, Cole Zwicker, Jonathan Givony, Mike Schmitz if there are any similarities between the two players, they will laugh at you.

[NBASupes]

5 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Show me those analytics, particularly considering that they have not calculated BPM for years before 2010.  JJJ was the more efficient scorer despite having a 41% three point rate compared to Marvin's 17.8 three point rate.  They are not even remotely similar.  If you ask anyone credible who evaluates these players like Sam Vecenie, Cole Zwicker, Jonathan Givony, Mike Schmitz if there are any similarities between the two players, they will laugh at you.

If they did, Marvin would rate extremely well. It benefits 3/D guys. Marvin had some of the best 3 and D stats in the NCAA in years. Why do you want to deny what Marvin was due to what he has become. 

[NBASupes]

Just now, NBASupes said:

If they did, Marvin would rate extremely well. It benefits 3/D guys. Marvin had some of the best 3 and D stats in the NCAA in years. Why do you want to deny what Marvin was due to what he has become. 

I am pretty sure most would agree to be honest but it's not fun to compare someone to a bust. That's why they compare him to guys people think more highly of but let's be clear. If Marvin was the #5 pick, no one would hate on Marvin. Marvin issue was getting drafted ahead of two elite PGs

[thecampster]

During the last 2 years, I've commented multiple times about Dennis driving to the basket with his eyes down.  That when Dennis drives to the basket he isn't creating for others, he's creating for himself.  I talked about how his passes to Dwight on drives were hard (not soft) and at his knees. In the following video, watch Trae Young and how often his dishes in the paint are soft at his big man's chest. See how often his eyes are up 10 feet from the basket.  Up as in peripheral vision, not up at the rim.  Around 2:30 is a great example.  IMHO, this is who the Hawks take around 3.  Notice the body control, soft touch on layups (trying to draw contact and leaving rebounds as soft to allow for put backs.  Again, (IMHO) this is the difference between a scoring PG playing like a PG (young) as opposed to a shooting PG playing like a shooting guard (Dennis).  I'd happily package Dennis with 19 to move back into the lottery to take Young + 1 other top talent.

 

 

[thecampster]

and FYI, packaging Dennis + 19 creates even more salary room to throw at FA targets.

[Buzzard]

6 minutes ago, thecampster said:

During the last 2 years, I've commented multiple times about Dennis driving to the basket with his eyes down.  That when Dennis drives to the basket he isn't creating for others, he's creating for himself.  I talked about how his passes to Dwight on drives were hard (not soft) and at his knees. In the following video, watch Trae Young and how often his dishes in the paint are soft at his big man's chest. See how often his eyes are up 10 feet from the basket.  Up as in peripheral vision, not up at the rim.  Around 2:30 is a great example.  IMHO, this is who the Hawks take around 3.  Notice the body control, soft touch on layups (trying to draw contact and leaving rebounds as soft to allow for put backs.  Again, (IMHO) this is the difference between a scoring PG playing like a PG (young) as opposed to a shooting PG playing like a shooting guard (Dennis).  I'd happily package Dennis with 19 to move back into the lottery to take Young + 1 other top talent.

 

 

Rumor is we are high on Trae. But rumors are just rumors; just like any other rumor we have heard on us liking Bagley and JJJ.  I don't see Dennis and 19 getting us Trae. But I can see us moving down and taking him if we are really that high on him.

[NBASupes]

43 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Show me those analytics, particularly considering that they have not calculated BPM for years before 2010.  JJJ was the more efficient scorer despite having a 41% three point rate compared to Marvin's 17.8 three point rate.  They are not even remotely similar.  

Interesting, it seems Marvin has a higher WS and likely would have a higher BPM as well. 

They are extremely similar. 

[thecampster]

Like 6 years ago, I almost cried tears of joy at not having to debate Marvin on here daily.  You guys are making me feel weepy again.  Jaren Jackson will be a very average NBA player. He is not star material and not worthy of a top 10 pick (though he is worthy of a first rounder). The PF position in the NBA is the most talent rich position year in and year out, mainly because the body structure of the SF/PF positions lead to the longest career span and therefore less player turnover.  PG are always blowing out tendons and ankles, Centers always get bad feet and knees.  The play style and body structure of an NBA PF tends to lead to a long, healthy career and therefore leads to the largest talent pool.  The very thought that in 3 consecutive nights Jaren Jackson might be asked to guard Demarcus Cousins, Lemarcus Aldridge and Blake Griffin doesn't bode well for his NBA impact.  You only take a PF in the top 10 if he's an extreme sure thing or if he can play significant minutes at the 5. The position is just too rich.