Homecourt Draft Discussion

[JayBirdHawk]

If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, quacks like a duck. guess what.................it's a duck.

[Buzzard]

7 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, quacks like a duck. guess what.................it's a duck.

Agree. Even if the BPM in 2016 states the duck is a better basketball team contributor than Melo, Bosh, Cousins, Hayward, Vucevic, and M Gasol, it is still a duck and not a All Star like some of those listed below him.

[lethalweapon3]

(^via our old friend @ATLScrubLove)

~lw3

[KB21]

2 hours ago, Buzzard said:

It is a f@cking stat. One of hundreds that people like you drool over every day of your life.

It's a better stat to determine you actual contribution to winning rather than looking at PPG, which is what you are blinded by when it comes to Marvin Bagley.  The ole "He averaged 21 PPG as a true freshman.  He must be great!" fallacy of evaluating players.

[KB21]

2 hours ago, DBac said:

Outlier

 

JJJ and WCJ are the two best defensive bigs in this draft.  

[KB21]

4 minutes ago, KB21 said:

It's a better stat to determine you actual contribution to winning rather than looking at PPG, which is what you are blinded by when it comes to Marvin Bagley.  The ole "He averaged 21 PPG as a true freshman.  He must be great!" fallacy of evaluating players.

This is also why rate stats are better than raw stats, and per 40 numbers are better used than the raw averages.  But you are probably one of those that still believe batting average is a good indicator of a hitter's ability in baseball.

[Spud2nique]

11 minutes ago, lethalweapon3 said:

(^via our old friend @ATLScrubLove)

~lw3

Lol...too much ..omg Tyrus Thomas destroyed him on that one play..STOP BACKIN UP MARV LOL.

[DBac]

Hate that Jontay pulled out of the draft. Huerter in is fun though.

[KB21]

http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/22680098/projecting-trae-young-marvin-bagley-top-prospects-2018-nba-draft-kevin-pelton

Quote

1. Jaren Jackson Jr.

Michigan State
PF/C
Top 100: No. 4
Stats: No. 2

Consensus: 3.7 WARP | Height: 6-11 | Weight: 242

While Jackson isn't at the top of either my stats-only projections or the top 100 rankings, the combination of strong finishes in both categories gives him a narrow edge as the top prospect overall. Jackson has been efficient both inside (61 percent on 2-pointers) and outside (nearly 40 percent on 3-pointers) the arc and has the NCAA's second-best block percentage, according to Sports-Reference.com. Add in Jackson's youth -- he's more than a year younger than Deandre Ayton -- and he looks like an excellent NBA prospect.

Quote

5. Marvin Bagley III

Duke
PF/C
Top 100: No. 5
Stats: No. 10

Consensus: 2.6 WARP | Height: 6-11 | Weight: 234

Of the top five players in our draft rankings (which also include Doncic, not listed here), Bagley has the weakest statistical projection. He's particularly limited by his block percentage, which would be below-average for a power forward, let alone a center. Still, Bagley falls into the group of top 10 prospects with top-10 statistical projections that have typically produced the best NBA players.

So, even Kevin Pelton's statistical model has JJJ rated higher than MB3.  

Unfortunately, Travis Schlenk doesn't strike me as an analytics savvy GM.  He strikes me as a "Duh, he can score" type of GM.

3 minutes ago, DBac said:

Hate that Jontay pulled out of the draft. Huerter in is fun though.

Jontay is a better prospect than his brother. 

[KB21]

http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/23509884/2018-nba-mock-draft-teams-deandre-ayton-luka-doncic-trae-young-lottery

Quote

3. Atlanta Hawks

Jaren Jackson Jr.
Michigan State
Age: 18.7
PF/C

Height: 6-foot-11 | Weight: 240

The Hawks will be in best-player-available mode, but it helps to be able to complement their existing roster with a building block that fits with the surrounding talent. Jackson would be the ideal big man to pair with promising rookie John Collins.

The youngest player projected to be drafted, Jackson might have the highest ceiling in terms of his ability to affect the game on both ends of the floor. He has enviable physical tools, including a 7-foot-4 wingspan and tremendous mobility. Jackson's ability to space the floor (40 percent from 3 and 80 percent from the line), block shots (5.7 per 40 minutes), switch on every screen and, increasingly, put the ball on the floor from the perimeter makes him an ideal fit for the modern NBA.

Starting salary: $6,504,600

Of course, if the draft fell the way they have it, I would take Luka Doncic, who is the #1 player in this draft.

[Buzzard]

13 minutes ago, KB21 said:

It's a better stat to determine you actual contribution to winning rather than looking at PPG, which is what you are blinded by when it comes to Marvin Bagley.  The ole "He averaged 21 PPG as a true freshman.  He must be great!" fallacy of evaluating players.

No it is not KB. It is just another stat; it is just another group of numbers to look at. No one group is better than any other group. No one stat is better than any other single stat. Marvins BPM in 2016 clearly shows this.

In 2016 should we take Marvin Williams over Marc Gasol ( multiple all defensive teams, former defensive player of the year )? Hell know; but your stat indicates Marvin, with a double the BPM, is the no brainer pick.

You need to get over this better advanced stat thought process. I will take 20 and 10 all day long over 11 and 5.6. Especially in tournament games when it is all on the line. Compare his production over the last ten games of the season when things matter. Bagley had one bad game and that bad game, 12 and 7, would have been a pretty good one for Jackson.

In the NCAA Tournament against Syracuse, Bagley put up 22 points and 7 rebounds. Jackson on the other hand folded like an accordion and put up 2 points and 8 rebounds. If we take Jackson, I hope he works out; but I would prefer Bagley for obvious reasons.

[KB21]

9 minutes ago, Buzzard said:

No it is not KB. It is just another stat; it is just another group of numbers to look at. No one group is better than any other group. No one stat is better than any other single stat. Marvins BPM in 2016 clearly shows this.

In 2016 should we take Marvin Williams over Marc Gasol ( multiple all defensive teams, former defensive player of the year )? Hell know; but your stat indicates Marvin, with a double the BPM, is the no brainer pick.

You need to get over this better advanced stat thought process. I will take 20 and 10 all day long over 11 and 5.6. Especially in tournament games when it is all on the line. Compare his production over the last ten games of the season when things matter. Bagley had one bad game and that bad game, 12 and 7, would have been a pretty good one for Jackson.

In the NCAA Tournament against Syracuse, Bagley put up 22 points and 7 rebounds. Jackson on the other hand folded like an accordion and put up 2 points and 8 rebounds. If we take Jackson, I hope he works out; but I would prefer Bagley for obvious reasons.

So, you would take Michael Beasley (26.2 PPG, 12.4 RPG) over Joel Embiid (11.2 PPG, 8.1 RPG).  I tell you what.  Why don't you show me the statistical trend that shows standard PPG is a better indicator of future ability in the NBA than BPM or any other advanced metric.  

[NBASupes]

36 minutes ago, KB21 said:

http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/22680098/projecting-trae-young-marvin-bagley-top-prospects-2018-nba-draft-kevin-pelton

So, even Kevin Pelton's statistical model has JJJ rated higher than MB3.  

Unfortunately, Travis Schlenk doesn't strike me as an analytics savvy GM.  He strikes me as a "Duh, he can score" type of GM.

Jontay is a better prospect than his brother. 

You do realize that Pelton scale highly favors 3 and D players right. Something JJJ projects as long term right?

There is a reason no one uses it that much in NBA circles. 

[DBac]

39 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Jontay is a better prospect than his brother. 

I don't agree. I see Jontay being a really good big off the bench

[KB21]

2 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

You do realize that Pelton scale highly favors 3 and D players right. Something JJJ projects as long term right?

There is a reason no one uses it that much in NBA circles. 

That's because players who can defend and hit three point shots contribute more to winning than one dimensional players.

1 minute ago, DBac said:

I don't agree. I see Jontay being a really good big off the bench

I'm not sure Michael will even be playable in the NBA.

[Royjr9]

2 minutes ago, KB21 said:

That's because players who can defend and hit three point shots contribute more to winning than one dimensional players.

I'm not sure Michael will even be playable in the NBA.

That’s just salty. If his health checks out who knows with him.

[Buzzard]

Just now, KB21 said:

So, you would take Michael Beasley (26.2 PPG, 12.4 RPG) over Joel Embiid (11.2 PPG, 8.1 RPG).  I tell you what.  Why don't you show me the statistical trend that shows standard PPG is a better indicator of future ability in the NBA than BPM or any other advanced metric.  

That would be a tough call and I am sure Pat Riley thought he got another star. The highlighted part is our problem, I said the complete opposite of what you are trying to shove down my throat. This is my opinion "No one group of stats is better than any other group, no one stat is better than any other." That is my opinion.

All the numbers have to be looked at and judged; and to me the final opinion is based on what you see when they perform and workout. You love your BPM. I like looking at everything. Big difference between you and I.

[KB21]

Just now, Royjr9 said:

That’s just salty. If his health checks out who knows with him.

He's a one dimensional shot chucker who fits as a stretch four in the NBA but lacks the length and quickness to make an impact on defense.  I'm not a Bagley fan, and I'm a lot higher on Bagley than I am Porter Jr.

[Royjr9]

2 minutes ago, KB21 said:

He's a one dimensional shot chucker who fits as a stretch four in the NBA but lacks the length and quickness to make an impact on defense.  I'm not a Bagley fan, and I'm a lot higher on Bagley than I am Porter Jr.

So you admit bagley may be a very good prospect. For the record I see the Knicks taking him. 

[KB21]

1 minute ago, Buzzard said:

That would be a tough call and I am sure Pat Riley thought he got another star. The highlighted part is our problem, I said the complete opposite of what you are trying to shove down my throat. This is my opinion "No one group of stats is better than any other group, no one stat is better than any other." That is my opinion.

All the numbers have to be looked at and judged; and to me the final opinion is based on what you see when they perform and workout. You love your BPM. I like looking at everything. Big difference between you and I.

I look at everything, and it just so happens that BPM is the one stat that seems to bear out what you see on the floor.  I'm not big on PER because it doesn't value defense at all, but even it's a better measure than PPG when evaluating a player.