Dallas and Cleveland 1st round picks

[hawkster911]

Cleveland lost LBJ.  Do you foresee the Hawks losing Cleveland’s 1st round pick next year?  I know it’s top 10 protected...

Dallas signed Jordan.  I think we will secure a 1st round pick between 6-20.

Your thoughts?

[JTB]

Yup we lost the Cavs pick for sure. mavs pick I’d say we got that pick locked down 

[KB21]

Mavs pick will be in the 8-10 range.  

The Cavs pick likely will not convey.

[Macknsweetjones]

Cavs only lost lebron...they should be good enough to get us that pick 

[Spud2nique]

Cavs pick will be close I think it’ll convey at around pick 15. I think Cavs go out and make the playoffs for the fans.

[JayBirdHawk]

2 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

Cavs pick will be close I think it’ll convey at around pick 15. I think Cavs go out and make the playoffs for the fans.

I'm hoping Dan Gilbert is bullish enough to think he can make the playoffs without LBJ.

[thecampster]

From a cap perspective. Cleveland is now only 8 million over the cap, 12 million under the LT. Cleveland needs to remain under the LT this year no matter what to clear repeat offender status.  They need to move George Hill ($19 million).  Expect them to deal Hill to get lower on the cap and flip that money for a 3 replacement for Lebron and then to use 1 exception to sign a vet and 2 vet minimums.

 

Their roster as currently constructed (assuming moving Hill) is worth about 35-40 wins which would just barely net us that pick.  If they trade away Love....no...we'll lose it.

The problem is all of the assets they accumulated to help Lebron win are still there. If not traded away, they'll be good enough to just barely sneak into the lottery and here is where it gets dicey.

Even if they have only the 12th worst record, we don't necessarily get the pick. They have to lose the lottery, then we'd get it. 

[JayBirdHawk]

3 minutes ago, thecampster said:

From a cap perspective. Cleveland is now only 8 million over the cap, 12 million under the LT. Cleveland needs to remain under the LT this year no matter what to clear repeat offender status.  They need to move George Hill ($19 million).  Expect them to deal Hill to get lower on the cap and flip that money for a 3 replacement for Lebron and then to use 1 exception to sign a vet and 2 vet minimums.

 

Their roster as currently constructed (assuming moving Hill) is worth about 35-40 wins which would just barely net us that pick.  If they trade away Love....no...we'll lose it.

The problem is all of the assets they accumulated to help Lebron win are still there. If not traded away, they'll be good enough to just barely sneak into the lottery and here is where it gets dicey.

Even if they have only the 12th worst record, we don't necessarily get the pick. They have to lose the lottery, then we'd get it. 

Cavs want to bring back Rodney Hood, if they can at $11 mil they can stay under the LT.

What team will take GHill at $19 mil without an asset? They can't trade a 1st until 2022 I think.

Orlando needs a PG, GHill for Vucevic, saves Cavs $7 mil.

[capstone21]

Their roster was constructed to support James ... Lue isn’t a great coach and I am not sure how they work with just Kevin Love as a true offensive weapon.  I wouldn’t be surprised if they try to break it all up

[thecampster]

Just now, JayBirdHawk said:

Cavs want to bring back Rodney Hood, if they can at $11 mil they can stay under the LT.

What team will take GHill at $19 mil without an asset? They can't trade a 1st until 2022 I think.

Orlando needs a PG, GHill for Vucevic, saves Cavs $7 mil.

I'm thinking Hill be one of those 3 way deals. Like sending him to Orlando, Orlando assets + some compensation to 3rd team, 3rd team sends player to Cleveland to shed a bit of salary....something like that. Hill has more value than the trash on Orlando or similar teams.  There will be a bit of salary swapping kind of deals to fit needs. He could also be moved at the trade deadline (more likely) to fill another team's need.

[thecampster]

2 minutes ago, capstone21 said:

Their roster was constructed to support James ... Lue isn’t a great coach and I am not sure how they work with just Kevin Love as a true offensive weapon.  I wouldn’t be surprised if they try to break it all up

Oh those big salaries aren't going anywhere.  Hard to find a buyer for Love...not because he isn't valuable, but because its hard to fit 24 million onto any roster. All teams under the cap (mostly) are rebuilding...all teams over would have to send Cavs a similar player (salary wise) to Love.  Its a hard fit.

As always....Korver could be on the move though.

[KB21]

11 minutes ago, thecampster said:

From a cap perspective. Cleveland is now only 8 million over the cap, 12 million under the LT. Cleveland needs to remain under the LT this year no matter what to clear repeat offender status.  They need to move George Hill ($19 million).  Expect them to deal Hill to get lower on the cap and flip that money for a 3 replacement for Lebron and then to use 1 exception to sign a vet and 2 vet minimums.

 

Their roster as currently constructed (assuming moving Hill) is worth about 35-40 wins which would just barely net us that pick.  If they trade away Love....no...we'll lose it.

The problem is all of the assets they accumulated to help Lebron win are still there. If not traded away, they'll be good enough to just barely sneak into the lottery and here is where it gets dicey.

Even if they have only the 12th worst record, we don't necessarily get the pick. They have to lose the lottery, then we'd get it. 

I don't know how you are figuring that their roster is worth 35-40 wins.  Their top two WARP projections are Kyle Love at 3.3 and George Hill at 1.7.  The next highest guy is Rodney Hood at 0.2 WARP.  Tristan Thompson, Collins Sexton, JR Smith....all have negative WARP projections.  

I'm having a hard time seeing them get 30 wins.

 

[capstone21]

1 minute ago, thecampster said:

Oh those big salaries aren't going anywhere.  Hard to find a buyer for Love...not because he isn't valuable, but because its hard to fit 24 million onto any roster. All teams under the cap (mostly) are rebuilding...all teams over would have to send Cavs a similar player (salary wise) to Love.  Its a hard fit.

As always....Korver could be on the move though.

I would love for Korver to get a ring somewhere 

[thecampster]

5 minutes ago, KB21 said:

I don't know how you are figuring that their roster is worth 35-40 wins.  Their top two WARP projections are Kyle Love at 3.3 and George Hill at 1.7.  The next highest guy is Rodney Hood at 0.2 WARP.  Tristan Thompson, Collins Sexton, JR Smith....all have negative WARP projections.  

I'm having a hard time seeing them get 30 wins.

 

Let's call it the Lebron effect.  Lebron improves teams simply by producing his steroid induced super human efforts.  But he is also ball dominant. Everyone's else's key stats (and thereby their "warp projections") suffers because Lebron is on the floor.  Every rebound Lebron snatches by crashing in and turning a bad shot into a rebound dunk, is a lost rebound opportunity for a big. Every pass out of a double team he makes for a 3, is one less assist for the PG.  Everyone's stats suffer a bit. His last year in Minny, Love averaged 26 points and 12.5 rebound per contest.  His best season in Cleveland was 19/11 with averages of 17.5 and 9.8. This is the Lebron effect.  Were you to plug Love's numbers in at 24/12 his WARP would improve as well.

Consider George Hill who got 1 more minute per game in Cleveland but whose scoring when down almost a full point per game and was down 7 points and 2 assists from his previous year in Utah.

Consider Rodney Hood.  His scoring average dipped 6 ppg when he went to Cleveland, in 2.5 less minutes of play.

JR Smith experienced the same.

The hardest to understand is Tristan Thompson. His style of play "conflicted" with the open lanes Lebron needed to work his mojo and so Thompson's time on the floor consistently dropped over 5 years...moving him from an 11/9 guy as a second year player to a 6/6 guy last year.

This is why your WARP numbers don't add up.  Lebron makes teams better, but not necessarily the players around him.  He is just a big stat sucking black hole which requires every other player on the floor to fit.  This is probably why you saw "0" change in Korver. He is the perfect player for a Lebron system. Hang out on the wing and get a pass...same thing he's been doing for years.

[KB21]

 

[thecampster]

11 minutes ago, KB21 said:

 

if its any consolation. the Hawks are 1000-1. Or at least they were June 3rd.

[Spud2nique]

Cavs have like their top 7 players under contract for next year. These are nba vets that nobody is going to want. I think that roster minus James but adding a couple more parts can challenge for a playoff spot. 

[Guard]

The Dallas pick will probably convey. Don’t see the Cavs pick doing the same. That roster sucks.  

[Spud2nique]

55 minutes ago, Guard said:

The Dallas pick will probably convey. Don’t see the Cavs pick doing the same. That roster sucks.  

I disagree. I think we didn’t really see what the Cavs could do because everyone stands around and watches Lebron. I think Clarkson, Love, Thompson, Korver, Hill, Nance and co can compete for a playoff birth in the weak east. 

[hazer]

Hawks just went from 2 lottery picks and a mid 20s pick to just 2 lottery picks. Sux, but the 2 lottery picks will do.