Schlenk is not tanking! He’s Fishing!

[Spud2nique]

Schematically we win 25-30 games. We need one more high lottery year. That’s the plan. We come at people in 2019-2020 with full force.

[sturt]

8 hours ago, sturt said:

Once you've started down this path, I don't get the idea of getting half-hearted about it at this juncture. Go ahead and give yourself another solid shot at top talent in the next draft, and only then begin to turn the corner back toward contention.

 

8 hours ago, KB21 said:

By tanking this year, you are also automatically giving up on next year and likely the year after that.  You don't just flip a switch and decide to be a contender when you feel like  you have enough talent in place. 

 

Didn't say you actually become a contender. I said you "begin to turn the corner."

Important difference.

I agree that a lot has to fall into place before actual contender status is attained.

Not going to engage the rest of that discussion because it's all been deliberated ad nauseum.

[sturt]

Premise of this thread =

[JayBirdHawk]

Too soon to tell.  End of game rotations to close out games will be a great indicator.

If the young guys are why we win I think Schlenk will live with the results indicating that they have improved in leaps and bounds.

The team appears to have more talented players but they are young, meaning growing pains PLUS a new Coach.

The trade deadline will also be an indicator of the plan for the rest of the season.

[KB21]

1 hour ago, sturt said:

 

 

Didn't say you actually become a contender. I said you "begin to turn the corner."

Important difference.

I agree that a lot has to fall into place before actual contender status is attained.

Not going to engage the rest of that discussion because it's all been deliberated ad nauseum.

Here is your turn the corner with this strategy:

The Hawks won 24 games in year 1 of the rebuild.  In year two, I anticipate them to be worse than year one because of more youth getting minutes on the team.  So, you go from 24 wins to 20 wins.  You get another high draft pick.  In year three, you have some progression from a couple of young players, but you still do not have impact veteran players.  So, you go from 20 wins to 26 wins.  Is this your "turning the corner".  With 26 wins, you are adding another high draft pick to the mix, but it is still unlikely that you can add any significant veterans with the cap space you still have.  So now, you might improve to the 33 win point in year four.  

Now, at this point, Tony Ressler has grown antsy with the situation and decides to replace Schlenk and Pierce.  A new GM comes in and probably deals a couple of the "older" players on the team, and we start this cycle all over again.  

[Peoriabird]

3 hours ago, Spud2nique said:

Schematically we win 25-30 games. We need one more high lottery year. That’s the plan. We come at people in 2019-2020 with full force.

Why doesn't the Dallas pick count as a lottery pick? Why do we have to be in the lottery in order for it to count? 

[sturt]

16 minutes ago, KB21 said:

In year three, you have some progression from a couple of young players, but you still do not have impact veteran players.  So, you go from 20 wins to 26 wins.  Is this your "turning the corner". 

I agree that we're likely to tread water at best this season.

I disagree that next off-season will yield zero impact players in free agency, though my definition of impact is merely "starter" not necessarily ASG candidate.

I disagree that 26 wins is the number for 2019-20. It's too early to even hazard a good guess on that one, except that I do think we'll be better. You'll reject this, but I don't think it's out of the question that we get to .500 at that point. Not at all. I think 25-ish wins is about as plausible as 40-ish wins, but it's all plausible as we sit here this far out from next season's results.

[Buzzard]

1 minute ago, Peoriabird said:

Why doesn't the Dallas pick count as a lottery pick? Why do we have to be in the lottery in order for it to count? 

I have no idea but I do think we and Dallas will be in the lottery. Dallas really has no scoring options they can count on unless Smith makes a big jump. Doncic is not going to do in his 1st NBA season what he did in his last Euro League season. That is a pipe dream to think he would.

I think Dallas could lead the league in most 20 point or larger losses.

[Peoriabird]

6 hours ago, JTB said:

I don’t believe schlenk had much of a choice in free agency like many seem to think. Either way it goes we were going to be a bad team no matter what trade you thought was best.

all I’m saying in the grand scheme of things IF we were to get shocked and this hawks team actually for some odd reason showed out it would not make sense for schlenk to run out these young guys if they are playing well just to bring in more young guys via draft.

we are already one of the youngest teams in the nba and now we have some veteran presence on the roster with Lin, VC, Baze, Dedmon, Plumlee surrounded around extremely young players so if these young guys do well I believe that’s what schlenk prefers. For an extremely young team to perform well.....What sense does it make for schlenk to trade young players  off just to bring in more young players?  ....I don’t think he’s tanking , he’s fishing for hope in the great big pond of the nba

No matter what you say, these opinions are set in stone.  @AHFclaims that his proof is Schlenk traded cap space for assets. If that were the case, he would done the Denver deal instead of trading for a veteran point guard who if healthy could help them win games this year.  He brought in a form #6 pick in the draft who is 25 years old to help win games!  The Dennis deal was designed to move on from Dennis before his value decreased even more and to create more cap room for next season.  Schlenk also brought in another mentor in V. Carter to have an Elton brand effect.  All of these moves were design to help the team win not lose more games this year.  Anyone who thinks otherwise has an agenda!

[AHF]

2 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

No matter what you say, these opinions are set in stone.  @AHFclaims that his proof is Schlenk traded cap space for assets. If that were the case, he would done the Denver deal instead of trading for a veteran point guard who if healthy could help them win games this year.  He brought in a form #6 pick in the draft who is 25 years old to help win games!  The Dennis deal was designed to move on from Dennis before his value decreased even more and to create more cap room for next season.  Schlenk also brought in another mentor in V. Carter to have an Elton brand effect.  All of these moves were design to help the team win not lose more games this year.  Anyone who thinks otherwise has an agenda!

I pretty explicitly said we passed on a first round pick from Denver to bring in a mentor to develop our top pick this season in Trae Young.  My opinion is that is about player development more than trying to make the playoffs.  Player development of our young talent is a major goal of the team.  The goal is not to make the playoffs this season.

[Spud2nique]

16 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Why doesn't the Dallas pick count as a lottery pick? Why do we have to be in the lottery in order for it to count? 

When did I say anything about the Dallas pick? Dallas will be a lottery team as well and we will get their pick too. 

[AHF]

18 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Why doesn't the Dallas pick count as a lottery pick? Why do we have to be in the lottery in order for it to count? 

Only a moron would say it doesn't count.  The more lottery picks we can get the better.  It absolutely counts and there is a very good chance it conveys somewhere in the lottery.  While Dallas should seriously improve, it is tough to make the playoffs in the West.

[KB21]

13 minutes ago, sturt said:

I agree that we're likely to tread water at best this season.

I disagree that next off-season will yield zero impact players in free agency, though my definition of impact is merely "starter" not necessarily ASG candidate.

I disagree that 26 wins is the number for 2019-20. It's too early to even hazard a good guess on that one, except that I do think we'll be better. You'll reject this, but I don't think it's out of the question that we get to .500 at that point. Not at all. I think 25-ish wins is about as plausible as 40-ish wins, but it's all plausible as we sit here this far out from next season's results.

Teams that bottomed out for draft picks:

Philadelphia 76ers: year 1- 19 wins, year 2 - 18 wins, year 3 - 10 wins, year 4 - 28 wins

Orlando Magic: year 1 - 20 wins, year 2 - 23 wins, year 3 - 35 wins, year 4 - 29 wins, year 5 - 25 wins

LA Lakers: year 1 - 27 wins, year 2 - 21 wins, year 3 - 17 wins, year 4 - 26 wins, year 5 - 35 wins

So, please give me an equal amount of teams who bottomed out and became .500 level teams in year 3 of their tank job to prove to me that it is just as likely as still being in the sub 30 win area in year 3.

[Peoriabird]

4 minutes ago, AHF said:

I pretty explicitly said we passed on a first round pick from Denver to bring in a mentor to develop our top pick this season in Trae Young.  My opinion is that is about player development more than trying to make the playoffs.  Player development of our young talent is a major goal of the team.  The goal is not to make the playoffs this season.

Lin is not here to mentor...Vince Carter is.  Lin was brought here to play and help the team win.  The guy is a borderline all star if healthy. 

[kg01]

1 minute ago, Spud2nique said:

When did I say anything about the Dallas pick? Dallas will be a lottery team as well and we will get their pick too. 

Heh, DAL is tanking for us this year and they don't realize it yet.

Ya know, at first I was upset about us passing on Doncic.  Now I'm like, when was the last time the DAL organization made a good personnel decision?  Starting the day after they won that title, basically every decision they made has been a bad one.

So folks can either (a) believe their decision to pay us to take Doncic will be the exception to the rule or (b) they can acknowledge the Mavericks have pretty much f'd up everything for the last 10 years so the Doncic-move is likely to be an epic fail for DAL.

.. boom.

[Peoriabird]

7 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

When did I say anything about the Dallas pick? Dallas will be a lottery team as well and we will get their pick too. 

Let me put it this way since you claimed that we needed to be in the lottery for another year before we try to compete.  How many more lottery pick do we need before we should try to compete again?

[KB21]

3 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Lin is not here to mentor...Vince Carter is.  Lin was brought here to play and help the team win.  The guy is a borderline all star if healthy. 

Lin is barely above replacement level as a player if healthy.  He's clearly not brought in to help the team win.

[AHF]

2 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Lin is not here to mentor...Vince Carter is.  Lin was brought here to play and help the team win.  The guy is a borderline all star if healthy. 

Let me know what year you think he was All-Star worthy with his career 12 ppg, 43% FG%, 35% 3pt%, 4.5 apg and 2.4 topg.  I've never seen him close but I suspect you've covered him in more detail.  I tried the last couple seasons but didn't have much chance to watch him.

[Spud2nique]

Just now, Peoriabird said:

Let me put it this way since you claimed that we needed to be in the lottery for another year before we try to compete.  How many more lottery pick do we need before we should try to compete again?

Picks? 1-3 more lotto picks. Years? One ☝️ I think we need to and will unintentionally tank this season and will be ready to go all in 2019-20. We need a year to learn, to turn the ball over, to take our bumps before we get better. Those are the things that champions go through imo.

[kg01]

6 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Lin is not here to mentor...Vince Carter is.  Lin was brought here to play and help the team win.  The guy is a borderline all star if healthy. 

Wat?