Schlenk is not tanking! He’s Fishing!

[sturt]

58 minutes ago, gurpilo said:

Lin if he can stay healthy

Fixed that.

[Buzzard]

58 minutes ago, sturt said:

In context, in that quote, I was responding to the seeming assertion that we can presume Young/Lin are going to be better than Dennis.

History teaches us to be wary at least until we have some actual NBA games as actual data that lead to a conclusion about any particular player.

And so, just to harmonize the two threads in this way... conventionally-speaking, we should have higher expectations of a player's probability of success if he's drafted #5 over if he's drafted #30... so while I believe I have reason to presume one is more likely to experience success than the other, I leave it at likelihood... I try not to talk in terms of what "will" happen, though I confess there may be some times when I dance on a fine line there.

Thus... it is not likely, in my mind, that Spellman is going to be a reliable back-up to Collins that we can plug-in from Game 1. It is an open question, as well, whether Young will become a reliable starter that we can plug-in from Game 1.

One more thing... I'm not just saying it... I am bullish on both Young and Spellman.

It appears, though, that some are well beyond my bullishness, and pretty much ready to presume those two already have established themselves... known-quantities and draft pick successes.

 

 

2 hours ago, sturt said:

The only one of those I feel any confidence in saying is #1.

I don't presume anything about rookies ever. The NBA re-drafts are littered with all kinds of examples of friggin lottery picks (let alone the rest of the drafts) that didn't turn out to be even first rounders in retrospect. L-i-t-t-e-r-e-d littered.

And I certainly don't presume anything about a player who has hardly ever stayed on the court for more than half a season.

And and, journeymen though they may have been, Ily and Belinelli were factors in many if not most of our wins as I recall.

I honestly have a hard time seeing where we can with any certainty we've done anything more than tread water, if that even.

You don't presume about a player but you do presume our team of players will be bad. Interesting

[sturt]

1 hour ago, Buzzard said:

 

You don't presume about a player but you do presume our team of players will be bad. Interesting

That's not accurate.

I said I don't presume about two kinds of players.... rookies, and one with a considerable history of injury.

It's true I presume our team will be bad... based on what's known, and being agnostic about what isn't.

And, let's be fair, I presume certain players will be good... I've recently spoken in somewhat glowing terms about Collins, Prince and Anderson in particular.

[Resslemania]

More like catfishing.

[Gray Mule]

How good can we be?  Seems that most of us think, "This is how bad we could be."  We really hope that we're not really that bad.

How good?  We hate to think thoughts like that.  If we're wrong, what a let down that will be. Rookies just can't be that good.  And, we have too many young players, especially that kid, Vince Carter.  Why, he isn't even old enough to draw his social security yet.

We have a very hard time making ourselves believe that Jeremy Lin will be well enough to actually play before Christmas and maybe not then.  Trae Young will be tossed out there to fail.  Not just a little.  Fail bad.  No help without Lin.

Will our regular Hawks from last season be any good?  Heavens, no.  That tanking season ruined them.  They now have a losing mentality.  Too bad.

Gasp!  Too much!  Overload!

Now, seriously, how good can this season's Hawk team be?  They are not that great, championship team that we hope that they will grow into.  That's for sure. 

All that being said, this Hawk team will be much, much better than most folks think.  We still read those "experts" who think that 20 wins will be hard for this team to achieve.  Just remember who this Hawk team has to play.  Some of these "other" teams aren't going to be so great either.

 

[sturt]

Objective voice weighs in...

 

 

 

 

... no matter what you want to label it.

[sillent]

On 7/26/2018 at 5:13 AM, gurpilo said:

There has been a change, positive change. Now we are adding players that could be on other rosters like Anderson, Len, Lin... Last years we signed guys noone else would have signed and they performed well but there was better talent out there.

Now we are adding good young players like Len, giving them the opportunity to shine. We are adding talent and suddenly we are deep.

Lin/Young/Hamilton

Baze/Huerter/Dorsey

Prince/Anderson/Bembry

Collins/Spellman/Poythress

Dedmon/Len/Plumlee

Suddenly our 2nd unit looks the best we have had in 10 years in terms of young talent and the 3rd unit has players that have played on NBA for some seasons. We are adding talent, giving opportunities to young players to shine and establish as valuable pieces for the future. This is the right way to go, that does not mean we are going to playoffs but we are not set to lose 65 games. This team can exceed expectations and if Lin, Anderson and Len stay healthy I could see this team winning 32-40 games. I don't think is happenning because I think they would trade Baze and Dedmon if that happen but eventually we could.

We will end with a top 5 and top 14 pick next year, a wing and a Center, Barrett and Gafford is my dream and we will be loaded with talent to make a run to tue playoffs with a new coach.

I agree with most of this trade and some of the last parts that I agree on are in bold. People are forgetting one simple factor which is almost the most important factor which is TEAM. The way our team is currently constructed  individuals and their numbers might not stand out but the most important part will be Team Results. Individuals can be great but without the right Team and Chemistry it could not pan out. In our case I think Schlenk has done an excellent job at adding players that fit in the construction of our overall team. Trae without (Huerter,Spellman) would be disastrous. Imagine if Curry blew up too soon and never got Klay and Draymond and because of his price tag not allowed to get real help. Damian Lillard kind of comes to mind. The fact that Trae, Kevin and Omari will forever be linked also let's me know that Schlenk has a grand scheme and intent purpose with his moves. Having young guys like Prince and Collins is a bonus. Overall our whole team has been built to be able to spread the floor maximizing offensive potential. We've added defenders that can plug in at key positions for balance on the floor. We've kept added high character/high IQ guys. As a team although young we are fully constructed even now to be competitive. Question is how fast can this team build/find chemistry.
 

On 7/27/2018 at 9:19 AM, Buzzard said:

So you are saying not by December of this season, OK. It is incremental improvements to start with since we did not sign a game changing free agent; and our team is so young.

1-Prince and Collins improvement this year. I think this is a given improvement.

2-Better rebounding and D by subtracting Moose and regulating Plumlee to 3rd or 4th in our big man rotation. I think this improvement is a given. Len and Spellman is better rebounding and D than Plumlee and Moose.

3-Lin and Trae over the inefficient Dennis we had last season. This could be anywhere from a toss up to a substantial improvement,

I honestly have a hard seeing where we got worse at.

Agreed. Our team now has a clear "culture" in place as a run and spread the floor type team. For alot of teams the talent may be undeniable but finding an identity to play to the talents favor is key.

On 7/27/2018 at 10:49 AM, sturt said:

The only one of those I feel any confidence in saying is #1.

I don't presume anything about rookies ever. The NBA re-drafts are littered with all kinds of examples of friggin lottery picks (let alone the rest of the drafts) that didn't turn out to be even first rounders in retrospect. L-i-t-t-e-r-e-d littered.

And I certainly don't presume anything about a player who has hardly ever stayed on the court for more than half a season.

And and, journeymen though they may have been, Ily and Belinelli were factors in many if not most of our wins as I recall.

I honestly have a hard time seeing where we can with any certainty we've done anything more than tread water, if that even.

Exactly which is why it is so baffling that so many are already keying in on rookies that have not even played their 1st game in college. Who knows how the tables will turn? Who knows who will show up or be let downs on our current roster that may determine the way we go in the next draft? Who knows if we need another 2 lottery picks or if we currently have enough young stars that we just need to develop in order to take us farther?

It's sad to see so many betting to lose without a clear take on what/who will be available and what we would actually need/do on the court. 

"I honestly have a hard time seeing where we can with any certainty we've done anything more than tread water, if that even." This is another statement above and why would there be such a hard time? It's because we have so many young and unknown variables (Bembry being a perfect example). If any or a couple of these guys breakout are y'all telling me that you would still let some go for more young and unknown variables? 

I'd rather atleast know the best our young players/team can do so I can properly access who we would need to draft for next year. Not play below standards get 3 more potential phenoms that could possibly create log jams and chemistry issues. Who's starting, who's getting paid, who's getting the most minutes etc... Although the Cavs were an older team on paper they looked good and deep with Isaiah Thomas, LeBron, Wade, Kevin Love and company but the team structure along with chemistry and egos wasn't sustainable. 76ers since so many like to brag on them have had how many lottery picks that were traded and didn't pan out because they had no overall direction as a team. MCW and Jahlil were wasted 1st rounds because the team decided to go in a different direction and unfortunately Fultz might be next if he doesn't prove to be a necessary piece for them. 

I don't have time to see young player/potential after young player come and go until we get it right and I don't believe Schlenk really wants to go in that direction either. We already have a good young core of atleast 5/7. Now it should be only about developiment and fit before the next bunch comes in and with Schlenk's drafting skills with us he has proven he can find value no matter what position we pick with. 

On 7/27/2018 at 11:29 AM, AHF said:

His point is fair on both threads, though.  Here he says there is uncertainty around whether a pick hits even when it is as high as a lottery pick.  In the other thread, he says the 30th pick has a notably lower probability of hitting than a high pick.  Both statements are true and neither rule out whether any or all of our guys can succeed.

Again why would we be deliberately tanking again if it's not a sure thing. Which it is not for anyone second guessing. Last year I heard rumors of Miles Bridges and Bagley being considered number 1 picks. Zion was highly touted for awhile and now I notice alot more crickets and he hasn't even played his 1st game in highschool. Prospects value change constantly and even near draft time so prospects fall and some prospects rise. Nobody gets it right every single time and for a lot of players situations/teams are a key factor to their actual success.

All we can do is what we can control which is the product that we put out there on the court. We can control our own destiny and who's to say the players we have out there on the court aren't good enough (even now) to surprise alot of teams in this league. We didn't draft our players for individual accolades we drafted and constructed with a team in mind. Clear cut skills and potential to spread the floor for most of our players. Young so can run and some athleticism to be an exciting team atleast on the offensive side of the court. We have just enough defense and with a defensive minded coach should be much better in that department by seasons end. 

With the cards dealt after the rebuild we've done a pretty good job of being younger, cap flexible, exciting and competitve and until they show me something different on the court I have to believe that we are moving in the right direction. 39 WINS what that actually gets us who knows (just in/out the playoffs) but I will consider something in that range to be a successful season for our growing and developing team and I'll worry about the possible rookies we can draft when it's around that time of year to draft again. One thing I can almost bet on is the rookies that people expect to be the best picks now may not be the same names considered come draft time. Flaws and weaknesses will be shown as well as strengths and potential from players no one really had their eyes on. I'll worry about that if our young players show they are incapable of being real players in the nba but for now I'm rooting for what and who we have now. 

[AHF]

Not sure if the question of "why try to get higher draft picks if they aren't a sure thing" is a joke or not.  There is uncertainty in every draft, in every sport.  You can get Ryan Leaf at #2 or Kurt Warner undrafted.  Greg Oden and Ben Wallace.  There is always uncertainty on both sides of the spectrum.  What is needed to make intelligent decisions is not a sure thing (which is impossible) but an understanding of probabilities.  So a high draft pick may not give you certainty but it gives you a materially different profile for the probability of various outcomes.  This is not unique to the draft as the same thing applies to every area of personnel evaluation and would invite the same question about free agents, trades, etc.  (I.e., why sign a max free agent when they might turn out to be a bust or why trade for a superstar in another market when he might suffer after joining your team?) 

Certainty is not the goal.  Giving yourself a meaningful chance at building a contender core is.  How best to do that is a debate worth having.  Asking for a "sure thing" is tilting at windmills.

[KB21]

2 hours ago, sturt said:

Objective voice weighs in...

 

 

 

 

... no matter what you want to label it.

Just a different order just so we can see that the Hawks are projected dead last.

[Vol4ever]

I'm glad some on the Squawk have optimism for this franchise because I dont.  Maybe because I and others have seen this movie a few times.  We traded a 3 pick and dumped our hopes on a undersized, out of control PG whom a lot of scouts were not too high on.  I hope he does well but he has to REALLY improve imo.  Cant understand the Lin trade.  Here is a guy that cant play because of injury and has a big salary.  The GM and owner front appear to be too sharp imo   Maybe the team wins 25 games this year.  Maybe the team wins 41 games about 5 years  from now.  

[KB21]

12 minutes ago, Vol4ever said:

I'm glad some on the Squawk have optimism for this franchise because I dont.  Maybe because I and others have seen this movie a few times.  We traded a 3 pick and dumped our hopes on a undersized, out of control PG whom a lot of scouts were not too high on.  I hope he does well but he has to REALLY improve imo.  Cant understand the Lin trade.  Here is a guy that cant play because of injury and has a big salary.  The GM and owner front appear to be too sharp imo   Maybe the team wins 25 games this year.  Maybe the team wins 41 games about 5 years  from now.  

I'm close to this view.  Trae will be fine, but because the Hawks are tanking, they will likely ruin his development, and he will become a better player on another team.  That's going to be the case with every young player that comes into this tanking situation..  Player development does not happen when you tank.

[nathan2331]

I'm close to this view.  Trae will be fine, but because the Hawks are tanking, they will likely ruin his development, and he will become a better player on another team.  That's going to be the case with every young player that comes into this tanking situation..  Player development does not happen when you tank.

That's just not true, regardless of what you think of the strategy.

[KB21]

Congratulatuons!   The Hawks are listed as the only team who intends to lose as many games as possible.  I’m sure this is just all part of the anti Hawks conspiracy lead by Brad Rowland.  

[AHF]

1 hour ago, KB21 said:

Congratulatuons!   The Hawks are listed as the only team who intends to lose as many games as possible.  I’m sure this is just all part of the anti Hawks conspiracy lead by Brad Rowland.  

Speculation on all parts in there.  For example, how do they conclude that the Knicks aren't coming into the year planning to tank?  I think odds of them just telling the Unicorn to stay home for the season and heal and marching towards the most losses they can justify with a straight face.  

Brooklyn?  They just did some classic tank moves by giving away two productive player in Lin and Dwight for future cap space and a pick and did little to replace them  Their top paid players?  Allen Crabbe, DeMarre Carroll, Kenneth Farried and Jared Dudley.  Anyone really think they are coming into the year shooting for the playoffs?  Just no.

They admit there will be other teams tanking much like the 8 teams they describe as tanking last year so it is pretty pie in the sky to conclusively decide that every team wants to win as many games as possible...other than the Hawks coming into the year.   That just isn't reality even if they don't have definitive insight into any particular team's thoughts.

[kg01]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

Speculation on all parts in there.  For example, how do they conclude that the Knicks aren't coming into the year planning to tank?  I think odds of them just telling the Unicorn to stay home for the season and heal and marching towards the most losses they can justify with a straight face.  

Brooklyn?  They just did some classic tank moves by giving away two productive player in Lin and Dwight for future cap space and a pick and did little to replace them  Their top paid players?  Allen Crabbe, DeMarre Carroll, Kenneth Farried and Jared Dudley.  Anyone really think they are coming into the year shooting for the playoffs?  Just no.

They admit there will be other teams tanking much like the 8 teams they describe as tanking last year so it is pretty pie in the sky to conclusively decide that every team wants to win as many games as possible...other than the Hawks coming into the year.   That just isn't reality even if they don't have definitive insight into any particular team's thoughts.

I'm not clicking that link so, if it's as you say and they're suggesting NYK/BKN aren't tanking, then whoever believes that is either a fool or has a clear agenda.

[Gray Mule]

Only the Hawks are a tank team and we can all expect nothing but terrible basketball from Atlanta's NBA team.  So they say.

Then, they list all these other eastern NBA teams who, for various reasons that they list, will be so terrible.  If they are this bad, it may be harder to lose than we thought.

  By the way, who did the Atlanta team tell that they were going into this season, trying their very best to lose every game?  If they, whoever "they" happen to be, can prove this to the commissioner, wouldn't he just let the Hawks forfeit every game and forget the entire thing.  With an automatic 0-82 record, Hawks could take the season off and rest.

GO DREAM !!   We, at least, have one basketball pro team winning!!