Reviewing PER stats of the team

[gurpilo]

Best players on PER last year were

Collins, Young and Len, all above 15 that can be considered league average. That is the best lineup you can make, clearly there is a hole at the wings.

We lost Lin with an average PER of 16, Dedmon(15), Prince (12), Baze (12), Spellman (11).

Replaced by Parker (15,5), Damian Jones(15), Turner(12), Crabbe (12 av). Additionally we added  Hunter, Reddish and Fernando.

I would say we are even here, perhaps losing aome ground if Jones struggle to stay healthy and cannot replace Dedmon production.

Surprised to see Huerter only had a PER of 10, combined with his bad defense he might be the one losing ground to Reddish if he really steps up.

 

[gurpilo]

To put things on perspective

Collins is 6th player on PF on PER

Young is 18th player on PG

Len is 38th on C but with a respectable PER, I see him postin 19 this season aa on Phoenix. Mitchell Robinson is 14th and Khem Birch 22nd

We fail to qualify any player at SG and SF on top 30

[Plainview1981]

I only vaguely follow these numbers. Based on numbers, perhaps Hueter does get a bit overrated.

[NBASupes]

PER is kinda trash. It heavily values rebounds and dislikes impact. Guys like Enes Kanter will look like studs in PER.

Not sure their is one stat that does well as all encompassing but PER ain't it chief 

[Plainview1981]

With Kevin.... I'd be fine if he could be a 15/5//4 with good shooting kind of player.

[NBASupes]

Just now, Plainview1981 said:

With Kevin.... I'd be fine if he could be a 15/5//4 with good shooting kind of player.

That's my optimal goal. Maybe 15/4/4. If he does that, his impact will break the game open in so many ways. Since he really lacks creation and iso skills. 15 is an exceptional number.

[kerrypack]

funny, because i looked at advanced stats yesterday as well.  John Collins and Damian Jones looked OK; dj not with per but with some others.  when you have a losing team i think that a lot of those stats look like crap.

[gurpilo]

I am not a fan of PER neither but any advanced stats you check Hawks players are on a similar ranking. The conclusions I get after reviewing any of this stats.

John is top 10 on PF and Young is top 10, I guess no surprise for anyone and everyone think they will inprove.

We valued Dedmon a lot but Len was better last year, no matter the adv stat you look....and Jones is not far from Dedmon... health might be the issue. All of them are not on top 30 C, we lack a starter.

On the wings although some people seem to be happy with some of our players, reality is all of them are outside top 30, we really need a starter here. We see Huerter as our future starter at SG but he is at the bottom of the rankings, can he improve this year? I hope so, he made some highlights but his efficiency and defense are poor. Baze and Prince production can be easily replaced, Crabbe provides the same and I think is a better fit.

Parker is a great improvement over Spellman and Turner might be no so bad.

Most of us thinking who should start, Hunter or Reddish? Well perhaps the best option is both and Kevin from the bench. The real issue here, are they going to be as good as the hype we are predicting?

Overall although I like our young players and core sometimes is good to check this rankings to really see things in perspective, we might be good on 3-4 years but I think we are far from playoffs although I expect an improvement this season, 35 wins might be a good prediction. All depends on what is the performance for Hunter and Reddish.

[NBASupes]

1 hour ago, gurpilo said:

I am not a fan of PER neither but any advanced stats you check Hawks players are on a similar ranking. The conclusions I get after reviewing any of this stats.

John is top 10 on PF and Young is top 10, I guess no surprise for anyone and everyone think they will inprove.

We valued Dedmon a lot but Len was better last year, no matter the adv stat you look....and Jones is not far from Dedmon... health might be the issue. All of them are not on top 30 C, we lack a starter.

On the wings although some people seem to be happy with some of our players, reality is all of them are outside top 30, we really need a starter here. We see Huerter as our future starter at SG but he is at the bottom of the rankings, can he improve this year? I hope so, he made some highlights but his efficiency and defense are poor. Baze and Prince production can be easily replaced, Crabbe provides the same and I think is a better fit.

Parker is a great improvement over Spellman and Turner might be no so bad.

Most of us thinking who should start, Hunter or Reddish? Well perhaps the best option is both and Kevin from the bench. The real issue here, are they going to be as good as the hype we are predicting?

Overall although I like our young players and core sometimes is good to check this rankings to really see things in perspective, we might be good on 3-4 years but I think we are far from playoffs although I expect an improvement this season, 35 wins might be a good prediction. All depends on what is the performance for Hunter and Reddish.

Dedmon was clearly a better center than Len last year. I don't even think it was that close. 

Dedmon has better feel for the game, better shooter on all levels, better screener, better in space, much better movement skills, better BBIQ, much better communicator and was the leader of the defense, he makes guys better. 

Len doesn't make guys better. He is someone who just benefits off of others. Of course his tagline stats will look better as when he's at the 5, the 5 has to stay on him while teams just switch the 4 to Dedmon and play their 5 on Collins. Len is a better scorer. Len has better post skills. Len has a bigger radius. Len is a better finisher. Len is a better roller while Dedmon great at pop. 

We will miss Dedmon, no question about it. 

Kevin's defensive impact was below average. His metrics will be good or bad defending on what they are looking for. DRAYMOND and PER dislikes his D. While DRPM thinks he is middle of the pack for a starting SG. For the eye test, I thought he is below average. Nothing special. I think every guy we added in the draft is a much better defender than him. I like his off ball D. I like his on ball discipline in comparisons to Trae and John. I do think he has the best potential of the three to be at least a good NBA defender. He will never be Danny Green or Jimmy Butler but I think a Klay Thompson like potential is possible. 

Parker issue is the Jamal Crawford conundrum. Will give up as much as he puts up, that said, if you need scoring, he can do that. 

I agree about Turner. He won't be that bad as a backup PG. He is basically Jeremy Lin's replacement. 

Kevin best impact was being the perfect fit next to Trae and John. Being perfect for spacing, being a great decision maker, and when he was on the court, everything just worked and when he was off, everyone had to work much harder to get shit done. His talent showed as well. He is a very talented player. 

I wouldn't put too much energy into the stats. That's how you fail to see where they can't make a jump. I predicted Brooklyn and Sac jump last year when all of the stats said naw. How? I watched the games. I seen where they were good at and the improvement they were making. Kevin did see a regression in the 2nd half compared to John and Trae but he also had a lot more responsibility as well in the 2nd half. 

This team is going to be good. Believe me on that. I like that you are doing the LP thing. Keeping it tempered. Just wanting to see the guys improve, etc. The thing is, I know our guys mindset and work ethic as well as most importantly, our fit. We will be excellent next year. Fit has always been my BIGGEST thing. Since the 2000s when people called me King Debbie Downer. 

 

Ask @Plainview1981 who was the two biggest Debbie Downers of the Joe Johnson era on this forum? 

Edited July 14, 2019 by NBASupes

[AHF]

By what advanced stat was Young a top 10 PG last year?  He can take a big jump in these stats with better defense and shooting.

[benhillboy]

I think I use all stats except PER lol.  I like on/off, box splits, efg, WS, assist: turnover, and adding rebounds, steals, and blocks.  At @NBASupes my eyes tend to agree with Kevin’s mid pack DRPM, I overrate him because he was a rookie thrust into a starting role.  I was most impressed by his poise though: a 2:1 assist to turn for a non-lottery rookie is very rare I’m guessing.  He should be a positive box defender in 20-21.  Like you I hope Deds absence doesn’t hurt as much as I expect.

I like the 82games simple ratings, anything to justify my Bembry fandom lol.  I think he and Ded’s defense glued both units together.

http://www.82games.com/1819/1819ATL.HTM

Edited July 14, 2019 by benhillboy

[gurpilo]

1 hour ago, AHF dijo:

By what advanced stat was Young a top 10 PG last year?  He can take a big jump in these stats with better defense and shooting.

I wanted to post top 20 sorry, cannot edit the post

[NBASupes]

1 hour ago, benhillboy said:

I think I use all stats except PER lol.  I like on/off, box splits, efg, WS, assist: turnover, and adding rebounds, steals, and blocks.  At @NBASupes my eyes tend to agree with Kevin’s mid pack DRPM, I overrate him because he was a rookie thrust into a starting role.  I was most impressed by his poise though: a 2:1 assist to turn for a non-lottery rookie is very rare I’m guessing.  He should be a positive box defender in 20-21.  Like you I hope Deds absence doesn’t hurt as much as I expect.

I like the 82games simple ratings, anything to justify my Bembry fandom lol.

http://www.82games.com/1819/1819ATL.HTM

The one positive is Jabari Parker - Outproduced his opponent in both WAS and CHI but in CHI was a starter and his Off and On was horrendous but as a 6th man, his On or Off in WAS was pretty good. Maybe he could be a steal as a 6th/7th man. 

[Plainview1981]

2 hours ago, NBASupes said:

Dedmon was clearly a better center than Len last year. I don't even think it was that close. 

Dedmon has better feel for the game, better shooter on all levels, better screener, better in space, much better movement skills, better BBIQ, much better communicator and was the leader of the defense, he makes guys better. 

Len doesn't make guys better. He is someone who just benefits off of others. Of course his tagline stats will look better as when he's at the 5, the 5 has to stay on him while teams just switch the 4 to Dedmon and play their 5 on Collins. Len is a better scorer. Len has better post skills. Len has a bigger radius. Len is a better finisher. Len is a better roller while Dedmon great at pop. 

We will miss Dedmon, no question about it. 

Kevin's defensive impact was below average. His metrics will be good or bad defending on what they are looking for. DRAYMOND and PER dislikes his D. While DRPM thinks he is middle of the pack for a starting SG. For the eye test, I thought he is below average. Nothing special. I think every guy we added in the draft is a much better defender than him. I like his off ball D. I like his on ball discipline in comparisons to Trae and John. I do think he has the best potential of the three to be at least a good NBA defender. He will never be Danny Green or Jimmy Butler but I think a Klay Thompson like potential is possible. 

Parker issue is the Jamal Crawford conundrum. Will give up as much as he puts up, that said, if you need scoring, he can do that. 

I agree about Turner. He won't be that bad as a backup PG. He is basically Jeremy Lin's replacement. 

Kevin best impact was being the perfect fit next to Trae and John. Being perfect for spacing, being a great decision maker, and when he was on the court, everything just worked and when he was off, everyone had to work much harder to get shit done. His talent showed as well. He is a very talented player. 

I wouldn't put too much energy into the stats. That's how you fail to see where they can't make a jump. I predicted Brooklyn and Sac jump last year when all of the stats said naw. How? I watched the games. I seen where they were good at and the improvement they were making. Kevin did see a regression in the 2nd half compared to John and Trae but he also had a lot more responsibility as well in the 2nd half. 

This team is going to be good. Believe me on that. I like that you are doing the LP thing. Keeping it tempered. Just wanting to see the guys improve, etc. The thing is, I know our guys mindset and work ethic as well as most importantly, our fit. We will be excellent next year. Fit has always been my BIGGEST thing. Since the 2000s when people called me King Debbie Downer. 

 

Ask @Plainview1981 who was the two biggest Debbie Downers of the Joe Johnson era on this forum? 

I’m not as negative as I used to be. I still have spells, but I didn’t watch two years ago. I basically took a season off.

[thecampster]

6 hours ago, gurpilo said:

Best players on PER last year were

Collins, Young and Len, all above 15 that can be considered league average. That is the best lineup you can make, clearly there is a hole at the wings.

We lost Lin with an average PER of 16, Dedmon(15), Prince (12), Baze (12), Spellman (11).

Replaced by Parker (15,5), Damian Jones(15), Turner(12), Crabbe (12 av). Additionally we added  Hunter, Reddish and Fernando.

I would say we are even here, perhaps losing aome ground if Jones struggle to stay healthy and cannot replace Dedmon production.

Surprised to see Huerter only had a PER of 10, combined with his bad defense he might be the one losing ground to Reddish if he really steps up.

 

PER is a stat heavily weighted toward rebounding. Net PER is a much better measurement. Net PER is player PER minus opponent PER at the same position while on the floor.

Look at net PER (48 min)...it adds perspective. Look only at the position they will play the most at.

PF - Collins +9.6

PG - Lin +3.8

C - Len -0.9

SF - Carter -1.5

SF - Prince -2.0

PG - Young -2.4  (yes even though his personal PER was way higher than Lin, his PER against was much worse as well).

SF - Bembry -2.5

SG - Bazemore -5.9

SG - Huerter -7.0

C- Dedmon -7.2

 

 

 

PG - Adams -13.1

 

 

[enrique]

6 hours ago, NBASupes said:

PER is kinda trash. It heavily values rebounds and dislikes impact. Guys like Enes Kanter will look like studs in PER.

Not sure their is one stat that does well as all encompassing but PER ain't it chief 

Yes, PER is only of value in comparing players in the same position. It generates some head-scratching conclusions for sure... I ran the numbers from last year by position. I guess I can post the google sheet if you want to see it. While I haven't studied the formula too much, it seems based on what I was looking at that the defensive rebounding is at a premium. Here were the positional results:

PG: Average PER=14.38; Median=13.26

SG: Average PER=12.1; Median=11.8

SF: Average PER=12.69; Median=12.2 (which happened to be Taurean)

PF: Average PER=15.5; Median=14.9

Center: Average PER=19.08; Median=18.77

 

 

Edited July 14, 2019 by enrique
kept turning C: into a smiley face:(

[enrique]

2 hours ago, benhillboy said:

I think I use all stats except PER lol.  I like on/off, box splits, efg, WS, assist: turnover, and adding rebounds, steals, and blocks.  At @NBASupes my eyes tend to agree with Kevin’s mid pack DRPM, I overrate him because he was a rookie thrust into a starting role.  I was most impressed by his poise though: a 2:1 assist to turn for a non-lottery rookie is very rare I’m guessing.  He should be a positive box defender in 20-21.  Like you I hope Deds absence doesn’t hurt as much as I expect.

I like the 82games simple ratings, anything to justify my Bembry fandom lol.  I think he and Ded’s defense glued both units together.

http://www.82games.com/1819/1819ATL.HTM

I was looking over the link you provided. What is the 82games definition of "Production?"

Thanks for helping me gather that info.

[Plainview1981]

4 hours ago, thecampster said:

PER is a stat heavily weighted toward rebounding. Net PER is a much better measurement. Net PER is player PER minus opponent PER at the same position while on the floor.

Look at net PER (48 min)...it adds perspective. Look only at the position they will play the most at.

PF - Collins +9.6

PG - Lin +3.8

C - Len -0.9

SF - Carter -1.5

SF - Prince -2.0

PG - Young -2.4  (yes even though his personal PER was way higher than Lin, his PER against was much worse as well).

SF - Bembry -2.5

SG - Bazemore -5.9

SG - Huerter -7.0

C- Dedmon -7.2

 

 

 

PG - Adams -13.1

 

 

How does Young stack up against  Luka?

[hazer]

35 minutes ago, Plainview1981 said:

How does Young stack up against  Luka?

Net PER is by position, and they play different ones.

[AHF]

15 hours ago, hazer said:

Net PER is by position, and they play different ones.

Are you using the net PER numbers on 82 games?  

I see Trae with a -2.4 net PER (i.e., 20.4 PER for Trae but giving up a 22.8 PER to opposing PGs when on the floor).

I see Luka with a +12.7 PER at PG (27.6 for LD, 14.9 Opp), a +7.0 PER at SG (24.2 / 17.2) and a +4.4 PER at SF (12.6 / 8.1).  Luka played 6% of team minutes at PG, 48% at SF, and 3% at SF according to the site.