The elephant in the room

[JTB]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

@NBASupes what's this EPM stat?

 

 

 

 

45 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Estimated plus minus. Like all of these metrics, its decent.

This is encouraging for Trae and Collins !….folks can say what they want about Trae but he’s an offensive superstar who’s gotten the respect of the league in terms of players. They KNOW he can impact a game by controlling the pace, scoring, & play making.

On the flip side of that it’s terrible to see our wing depth that I thought was deep but in actuality is extremely horrible….we need to run the offense heavily through Trae and John going forward until our wings get it together.

[JeffS17]

Trae being compared to Westbrook is laughable -- they couldn't be more different.  Trae is awful in open court and that's the only time Westbrook is good.  Trae has great vision an playmaking and Westbrook just makes low IQ plays constantly which is why he sports the league-high turnover rate.  And this year isn't an anomaly for him.  I really don't get the Trae Young hate because he's been playing really well the past 3-5 games.  He shot poorly at the start of the season and he's been much better recently.  He scored 30 on 16 shots last night...

Our main problem imo (other than strength of schedule, playing on the road, and all the bck to backs) is defense.  We won a lot of games 2nd half of last year because we got stops and second chances.  I think a lot of our issues, including our wing situation, will work themselves out, but Capela's health is a big question mark right now and until OO comes back, we're going to have to deal with whatever he's giving us.  

[willthepureshooter]

The problem is Gallo. He's not producing on the offensive and defensive end at its killing our rhythm. I believe father time has finally caught up to him. Nate has to start giving Jalen Johnson minutes. The kid has a motor and is a decent shooter outside.

[kg01]

1 hour ago, willthepureshooter said:

The problem is Gallo. He's not producing on the offensive and defensive end at its killing our rhythm. I believe father time has finally caught up to him. Nate has to start giving Jalen Johnson minutes. The kid has a motor and is a decent shooter outside.

Agree Gallo is a problem.  Disagree that Johnson is the answer.  Too raw.

Another big problem we're having is no games vs the Orlando's and Detroit's of the world.

[Gray Mule]

Say what you will.  When shots do not fall, Hawks will not win.  Prime example, last game:

Free throws:  15-21

Three point shots 5-28 - - Hunter 0-5 - Huerter - 0-5.

This hound dog won't hunt.  

Bud drops in tonight for a visit.  If we shoot like this again, expect the same results.  And, I hear the Pistons coming.  Making us a place to dwell in the basement.

Dare we say: GO ATL HAWKS !!

[Hawkmoor]

16 hours ago, NBASupes said:

Trae could be the problem but he's not Westbrook Jr. Our half court offense is efficient. Our problem is the ball dont the move much and our defense doesn't create turnovers or get stops anymore.

You said the offense is efficient, then immediately followed it up with "the ball dont move much".  Thats a contradiction.  Ball movement starts with your point guard.  If the other Hawks are not moving the ball, its because their point guard is dominating the ball.  In the rare instances where they are on the perimeter and Trae is giving it up, their inexperience at moving the ball crisply will show up.   The Hawks MAIN plays are Trae tricky dribbling up around the 3 point lane or Lobs to the basket.  Those are the MAIN plays.  Thats not efficient. I wanna see more pindowns. Wide and middle pins can be added to it. Trae has to give the ball up in order to do that.

From Merriam:

Definition of point guard

: a guard in basketball who is chiefly responsible for running the offense.

Edited November 14, 2021 by Hawkmoor

[Cwell]

12 hours ago, willthepureshooter said:

The problem is Gallo. He's not producing on the offensive and defensive end at its killing our rhythm. I believe father time has finally caught up to him. Nate has to start giving Jalen Johnson minutes. The kid has a motor and is a decent shooter outside.

I don't know about Johnson yet. But I do know once Gallo came back, Cam went back to being stuck in the corner again instead of being the #1 option of the 2nd unit and his numbers started pit-falling 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

On 11/13/2021 at 10:09 AM, NBASupes said:

It's clear we have limitations with Cam/Hunter starting. The biggest is Cam's inconsistency and our offense just take a tumble but Hunter is a lot better. Cam handle the hardest perimeter matchups. Hunter deals with the most physical guys and even though Cam metrics defensive hit the cliff as we saw last year to start the season. Everyone around him is better for it because he forces tough shooting nights for stars and superstars across the league and honestly, he makes it possible for Hunter to do more on offense which is extremely difficult when he has to do everything on D to cover for both Bogi and Trae. Trae gets to hide on defense which benefits him on that end. 

Then the other issue is Kev and Bogi. This is our best starting punch but they are both rocking a -0.2 WAR and a -0.6 WAR. NOT Good. They are streaky and haven't gotten in a groove. So what can we do with these two. 

The question is, to we start Cam to make life A LOT easier for Hunter even at Cam's expense or do we start Kev knowing that he's struggling this year and with Capela's defensive regression, maybe our defense can't recover as we have last year. What's your take? 

At this point, Bogi and Hunter just ain't gonna work. To be honest, it never have. They struggled at the end of last year. They didn't play well together when Hunter was healthy and the Knicks series is fool's gold because we needed Hunter to lock down Randle more than we needed offensive contributions from him. They just don't fit at all. Kev and Cam have always been a tough fit as well, especially for Kev. At some point, we gotta realize, Cam/Hunter are a pair as is Bogi/Kev. 

 

Surprise plot twist:  Maybe HUNTER is the problem.

 

He's a nice player, but he's not the guy that people are trying to make him out to be. 

He's not a good scorer.  He's not as great of a defender that we Hawks fans make him out to be.  He's a very poor playmaker.  He's even a poorer rebounder, especially for his size.  And most of all, he doesn't make game changing plays. 

If we were to all keep it real about Hunter, he's a B- player at this point in his career.  For a 3rd year player, that's not bad.  For a lottery pick, he's well behind his projection.

I'm just going to go through some various statistics and post his rank among his draft class.  Matter of fact, may a well throw Cam into this too. And I'm going to eliminate guys who didn't make it to their 3rd year.

NOTE:  Only 36 players in the 2019 draft are still on a NBA roster at this point:

• Games played:    ( 22nd )  - ( tied with Cam )
• FG%:   Hunter ( 20th ) - Cam ( 33rd ) 
• 3FG%:  Hunter ( 10th ) - Cam (19th )
• FT%:  Cam ( 6th ) - Hunter ( 8th )
• PPG:  Hunter ( 5th ) - Cam ( 11th )
• REBS:  Hunter ( 9th ) - Cam ( 13th )
• AST:  Hunter ( 11th ) - Cam ( 17th )
• Win Score:  Hunter ( 19th ) - Cam ( 30th )
• Win Score/48:  Hunter ( 25th ) - Cam ( 32nd )
• BPM:   Hunter ( 25th ) - Cam ( 29th )
• VORP:  Hunter ( 31st ) - Cam ( 33rd )

No ranking, but their Career PER are Hunter ( 10.1 ) and Cam ( 9.6 )

For a comparison, Marvin Williams in his 2nd year had a PER of ( 12.2 ).   Josh Childress had a PER of ( 15.8 )

De'Andre and Cam at this point in their careers, are just not impact players.   And with how often they've both been hurt, that doesn't help their development either.

 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

14 hours ago, JTB said:

 

This is encouraging for Trae and Collins !….folks can say what they want about Trae but he’s an offensive superstar who’s gotten the respect of the league in terms of players. They KNOW he can impact a game by controlling the pace, scoring, & play making.

On the flip side of that it’s terrible to see our wing depth that I thought was deep but in actuality is extremely horrible….we need to run the offense heavily through Trae and John going forward until our wings get it together.

 

And that's why the game plan is to take the ball out of Trae's hands.  Because if they can successfully do that, they know that the other guys on the team, on most nights, aren't going to be able to pick up the slack.

This is the reason why teams fear the 32 ppg - 7 assist Trae, than the 20 ppg - 13 asst Trae

[JeffS17]

1 hour ago, Hawkmoor said:

You said the offense is efficient, then immediately followed it up with "the ball dont move much".  Thats a contradiction.  Ball movement starts with your point guard.  If the other Hawks are not moving the ball, its because their point guard is dominating the ball.  In the rare instances where they are on the perimeter and Trae is giving it up, their inexperience at moving the ball crisply will show up.   The Hawks MAIN plays are Trae tricky dribbling up around the 3 point lane or Lobs to the basket.  Those are the MAIN plays.  Thats not efficient. I wanna see more pindowns. Wide and middle pins can be added to it. Trae has to give the ball up in order to do that.

From Merriam:

Definition of point guard

: a guard in basketball who is chiefly responsible for running the offense.

It sounds like your issue is not with Trae but with Nate's offensive system.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

4 hours ago, Hawkmoor said:

You said the offense is efficient, then immediately followed it up with "the ball dont move much".  Thats a contradiction.  Ball movement starts with your point guard.  If the other Hawks are not moving the ball, its because their point guard is dominating the ball.  In the rare instances where they are on the perimeter and Trae is giving it up, their inexperience at moving the ball crisply will show up.   The Hawks MAIN plays are Trae tricky dribbling up around the 3 point lane or Lobs to the basket.  Those are the MAIN plays.  Thats not efficient. I wanna see more pindowns. Wide and middle pins can be added to it. Trae has to give the ball up in order to do that.

From Merriam:

Definition of point guard

: a guard in basketball who is chiefly responsible for running the offense.

 

So why can't they do all of this, and be efficient, when Trae is NOT in the game?   You talk like it is so easy to implement. But this offense looks like pure crap when Trae is not in the game setting people up.

[Blunt91]

14 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

So why can't they do all of this, and be efficient, when Trae is NOT in the game?   You talk like it is so easy to implement. But this offense looks like pure crap when Trae is not in the game setting people up.

The second unit needs someone who can run the offense  If Nate isn't going to play Cooper, maybe he should send Bogi to the second unit that way both Bogi and Huerter could take pressure off Wright trying to handle the ball.  Delon could then look to attack more on the offensive end.

[Hawkmoor]

5 hours ago, JeffS17 said:

It sounds like your issue is not with Trae but with Nate's offensive system.

Its both.  If Nate is gonna run a offense where he allows Trae to isolate up top BUT have open players on the wing at the same time, he needs to at least instruct Trae to kick it out when he drives and the defense collapses.

[Hawkmoor]

2 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

So why can't they do all of this, and be efficient, when Trae is NOT in the game?   You talk like it is so easy to implement. But this offense looks like pure crap when Trae is not in the game setting people up.

Nobody is saying that Trae shouldn't be the primary ball handler.  The issue is Trae being allowed to dominate the offense when he is on the floor.  With Trae's passing ability, the offense should be waay more efficient than it is.  Take those pin downs I mentioned.  Trae initiates the actions.  The actions can become PART of a larger whole where Trae receives the ball back in better shooting position with better flow as a second or third option.  You have to get others involved in a flow full of actions and actions that lead to plays.  Trae tricky dribbling up top is not the answer.  Trae can be even BETTER than he is if this offense was changed into more flowing plays.

Edited November 14, 2021 by Hawkmoor

[Hawkmoor]

5 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

And that's why the game plan is to take the ball out of Trae's hands.  Because if they can successfully do that, they know that the other guys on the team, on most nights, aren't going to be able to pick up the slack.

This is the reason why teams fear the 32 ppg - 7 assist Trae, than the 20 ppg - 13 asst Trae

Teams would fear a 20 point Trae combined with a 20 point shooting guard with Hunter/Cam on the wings.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

1 minute ago, Hawkmoor said:

Teams would fear a 20 point Trae combined with a 20 point shooting guard with Hunter/Cam on the wings.

 

But that's the point.  Those guys don't shoot well enough to consistently score 20 points on any given night.  The fan base wants those two guys to do things that they simply can't consistently do yet.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

16 minutes ago, Hawkmoor said:

Nobody is saying that Trae shouldn't be the primary ball handler. The issue is Trae being allowed to dominate the offense when he is on the floor.  With Trae's passing ability, the offense should be waay more efficient than it is.  Take those pin downs I mentioned.  Trae initiates the actions.  The actions can become PART of a larger whole where Trae receives the ball back in better shooting position with better flow as a second or third option.  You have to get others involved in a flow full of actions and actions that lead to plays.  Trae tricky dribbling up top is not the answer.  Trae can be even BETTER than he is if this offense was changed into more flowing plays.

 

Like Jeff said, it sounds like your problem is with the Hawks offense in general.  The movement and action that you want is implemented by the coach, not by the PG.  And you also need the personnel that can execute an offense like that.

If you want Golden State type movement, many teams have tried to do what they do.  It's one big reason, actually two, why they can't do it at that level.  They don't have a great facilitating big who can get everybody great shots as a secondary passer.  And they don't have the greatest shooter of all time on their team.

Also, we have wings who love to put the ball on the floor before they shoot it. 

Like it or not, keeping the ball in Trae's hands, plays to the team's strength.  That's why when he puts up a high point total, the Hawks have about a 75% chance of winning a game.

[terrell]

23 hours ago, Hawkmoor said:

The elephant in the room is Trae Young, AKA Russell Westbrook Junior.   The offense will never be efficient with Trae.  The Hawks don't have another GUY that demands the ball away from Trae.  Bogi was brought in to be that guy, but he isn't the answer.  As far as Hunter goes, his demeanor isn't to be the guy to demand the ball like he SHOULD.  Before the trade deadline, I would move Bogi, Galli and whoever else it takes outside of Hunter, Cam, Johnson, Collins, Okongwu and Young.  Everybody else is fair game to bring in another playmaker at 2 guard who can DEMAND the ball.  THATS the Hawks problem.  Below happens EVERY game.  Trae drives the lane with the whole defense collapsing, with Hunter over in the corner by himself.  He doesn't even BOTHER with waving his arms at times because Trae is NOT passing that ball:

 

He also creates terrible defensive nightmare matchups for our team........

[Gray Mule]

Problem solved!  Shots went in.  Hawks win!!

[JayBirdHawk]

8 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Can somebody, ANYBODY, tell Cam Reddish to stop with all the stepback jumpshots - he's usually taller than whoever is guarding him.....dribble, pull up, shoot over - STOP STEPPING BACK! Step into your shot.......use your height

I think Cam is the Big Elephant in the room. Posted the above in the game Thread.

Then there's this:

Quote

Reddish has been a team-worst minus-8.6, meaning the Hawks are 8.6 points better per 100 possessions when he’s off the floor. He’s shooting under 40 percent from the field and has just 12 assists in 14 games. The offense just stagnates when the ball is in his hands. (I will say at least he's shooting a respectable 36% from 3).

He needs to be a catch-and-shoot guy almost exclusively because his handle is too loose to be the initiator he wants to be; he has 22 turnovers to his 12 assists, and most of those are just cases of his losing the ball off live dribbles. It’s clear to me and NBA scouts who I’ve spoken with on the road this season that Reddish might be better off on a rebuilding team where he can get all of the shots he wants to work through any slump he might have. The way he’s playing just can’t work for a team wanting to win a title. His on-ball defense, the area where he tends to excel, hasn’t been crisp this season, either. He gambles in the passing lanes too much, even with his having a team-leading 15 steals, and it results in frequent easy looks for his matchups.

 

I mentioned Cam's struggles on defense a few days ago - too much gambling, wrong reads, bad positioning,  just not playing sound disciplined defense.