The Julius Randle Fit

[Q45T]

No.

[sturt]

4 hours ago, AHF said:

Which Randle you are getting is part of the issue.  His All-Star season I think is an outlier and no one trading for him should expect him to play like that and be that good.  What he has demonstrated is an ability to pass the ball very well for a big man, to rebound the ball effectively, and to score effectively but how  he scores has been a moving target.

I agree that his 2020-21 season will almost certainly prove to be his career year... the high water mark.

In fact, I agree with everything you wrote, @AHF... and yes, you should take that to mean you and I remain equally appreciative of well-grounded, well-explained conclusions... no allergy to William F. Buckley here, none whatsoever.

(Aside, it's a bit discouraging in the big picture to know that most attention spans might not make it through the 500 words of a routine op-ed column. This preference for sound bites is a preference for shallow thought, and that's gonna bite us in the collective butt, if it hasn't already... but... I digress... )

But then I think I'm pretty content with the idea that when Randle isn't "the guy," he's not going to have the same internal pressure to be the guy... if that makes any sense... and so, his shot selection necessarily becomes more efficient. Importantly, it's not like he's always been so non-discerning in terms of shot selection. His EFG% was about 100 pts more his last year in LA and his lone year in NOLA, and if one looks at his distance splits, yes, he was taking fewer midrange jumpers. A Randle who almost exclusively shoots from the arc and from the front of the rim (he's always been an excellent finisher) is a Randle who would be the best offensive version of himself.

What's missing imo is an appreciation for his defense. He's not great, but he's good. I prefer that to someone who one might say is a great defender, but whose ability to score is a glaring question mark and has been even when he was at LSU. (Maybe that's just me.)

What you're getting for the price you're also paying John Collins is a 27 year old capable of justifying that number. He gives you someone who legitimately can take over games, which seemingly is a theme around here... we need someone else on the roster who can take over games and lead you to a win. Not thrilled with paying him JC money... would rather pay him Gallo money... but at least it's not Simmons money and at least the projected salary cap increases naturally should siphon away some of that discomfort.

 

[sturt]

4 hours ago, macdaddy said:

We need to find who the undervalued young guys are now and develop them to work with the Hawks.    Any ideas?   

@Spud2nique is captain of the Lu Dort ship. I just signed on, myself.

Talk is that it's a legit question whether Presti/OKC will choose to pay him what he's going to be worth... there's an opportunity there. For 2022-23, though, he'll only cost you $1.9m.

 

 

 

[Spud2nique]

10 minutes ago, sturt said:

@Spud2nique is captain of the Lu Dort ship. I just signed on, myself.

Can they call me cappy?  
Best bang for your buck out there!

He’s  my version on PJ Tucker as a guard. Grinder.

Edited May 26, 2022 by Spud2nique

[AHF]

32 minutes ago, sturt said:

I agree that his 2020-21 season will almost certainly prove to be his career year... the high water mark.

In fact, I agree with everything you wrote, @AHF... and yes, you should take that to mean you and I remain equally appreciative of well-grounded, well-explained conclusions... no allergy to William F. Buckley here, none whatsoever.

(Aside, it's a bit discouraging in the big picture to know that most attention spans might not make it through the 500 words of a routine op-ed column. This preference for sound bites is a preference for shallow thought, and that's gonna bite us in the collective butt, if it hasn't already... but... I digress... )

But then I think I'm pretty content with the idea that when Randle isn't "the guy," he's not going to have the same internal pressure to be the guy... if that makes any sense... and so, his shot selection necessarily becomes more efficient. Importantly, it's not like he's always been so non-discerning in terms of shot selection. His EFG% was about 100 pts more his last year in LA and his lone year in NOLA, and if one looks at his distance splits, yes, he was taking fewer midrange jumpers. A Randle who almost exclusively shoots from the arc and from the front of the rim (he's always been an excellent finisher) is a Randle who would be the best offensive version of himself.

What's missing imo is an appreciation for his defense. He's not great, but he's good. I prefer that to someone who one might say is a great defender, but whose ability to score is a glaring question mark and has been even when he was at LSU. (Maybe that's just me.)

What you're getting for the price you're also paying John Collins is a 27 year old capable of justifying that number. He gives you someone who legitimately can take over games, which seemingly is a theme around here... we need someone else on the roster who can take over games and lead you to a win. Not thrilled with paying him JC money... would rather pay him Gallo money... but at least it's not Simmons money and at least the projected salary cap increases naturally should siphon away some of that discomfort.

 

If we ended up with him on the roster, I'd be excited to root for him as a former Cat and he is definitely talented enough that I can see paths forward where it works out.  Randle is stronger by a long shot than anyone we have in our front court right now which would be an interesting change to that group and I think having a playmaking forward there (which has been missing since Horford and Sap left town) would be something appreciated.  

So I will be rooting for him every step of the way if he ends up a Hawk.  I just get very concerned and gun shy with forwards who evolve to a jump shooting game when they aren't good jump shooters. 

Quote

A Randle who almost exclusively shoots from the arc and from the front of the rim (he's always been an excellent finisher) is a Randle who would be the best offensive version of himself.

If he comes, I hope you are correct that he would be selective with his shot opportunities and take more of his game back inside where he can be more efficient.  As someone who has shot 28% and 31% from 3pt range in 2 of the last 3 seasons, though, I'm not certain he should be taking many shots from beyond the arc regardless (I see him in more of a "keep them honest" mode than anyone close to the 5-6 3ptA/gm he was the last two seasons).  His strength, mobility, dribbling, and general craftiness let him shoot a high volume at a good efficiency when he is getting himself near the rim and that is definitely where he is at his best.

[sturt]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

I'd be excited to root for him as a former Cat

Oh. He played for Villanova? Kansas State? Davidson? Or was it Arizona?

 

1 hour ago, AHF said:

Randle is stronger by a long shot than anyone we have in our front court right now which would be an interesting change to that group and I think having a playmaking forward there (which has been missing since Horford and Sap left town) would be something appreciated. 

In a conference where you've got a Giannis and a Tatum, it seems wise to have someone who can credibly put a chest into those guys and make them work... particularly, of course, in the postseason.

 

1 hour ago, AHF said:

As someone who has shot 28% and 31% from 3pt range in 2 of the last 3 seasons

Now don't be that way. The man earned his 41% last season. Don't take it away from him.

 

1 hour ago, AHF said:

(I see him in more of a "keep them honest" mode than anyone close to the 5-6 3ptA/gm he was the last two seasons)

I'm that way about his mid-range jumpers. Got to take some of those for honest-keeping purposes. He's capable from the arc, though, and while 5-6 is too much, I'd say 2-3 is certainly in the feasible ballpark.

 

 

 

 

[Spud2nique]

1 hour ago, sturt said:

Oh. He played for Villanova? Kansas State? Davidson? Or was it Arizona?

Sheesh … you have some success at Kentucky and you think you trademarked the cat .

THIS AINT KFC!!! 
 

Yup wildcat of Zona Dort.

[jy23]

No

[ATLHawks3]

I'm good.

[AHF]

17 hours ago, sturt said:

Now don't be that way. The man earned his 41% last season. Don't take it away from him.

 

I'm that way about his mid-range jumpers. Got to take some of those for honest-keeping purposes. He's capable from the arc, though, and while 5-6 is too much, I'd say 2-3 is certainly in the feasible ballpark.

 

I see the 41% as an outlier.  

That is not a capable 3pt shooter, imo.  To be capable to the point where you want to scale up the volume of 3pt shots for someone like Julius, you should be shooting at least a .500% EFG% so just over 36% which has happened 1 out of 8 seasons for Randle.  

I do agree with you that he would benefit significantly from reducing his 3pt volume to the 2-3 shots per game you mention.  

[sturt]

22 minutes ago, AHF said:

I see the 41% as an outlier. 

It's not just your perception. That is the definition of an outlier, of course.

But it's an outlier than needs some explanation. We're not just talking about a few games, we're talking about an entire season.

And two things can be true at the same time.

41% is an outlier, comparing seasons, and yet too, that for 71 games within recent history he achieved that still is valid evidence that Randle is "capable" behind the arc.

I'm sure he and everyone surrounding him are spending time trying to detect what he did so right in 20-21, and what conditions or old habits led to him regressing to his mean.

Will just put it this way... I'm very much content with what a Randle would bring to this roster if you could guarantee me he would shoot no more than 4, no less than 2 threes per game and hit no less than 33% on those... and, again, would shoot midrange jumpers from outside 10 feet no more than 2x per game... because of everything else he brings to the table on both sides of the floor.

If he were two years older, by the way, I'd probably be a whole lot less enthusiastic. It's my sense that Julius Randle being 27, it's not actually that silly to believe his best ball and best performances are going to occur in the next couple of years.

[AHF]

1 minute ago, sturt said:

Will just put it this way... I'm very much content with what a Randle would bring to this roster if you could guarantee me he would shoot no more than 4, no less than 2 threes per game and hit no less than 33% on those... and, again, would shoot from outside 10 feet no more than 2x per game... because of everything else he brings to the table on both sides of the floor.

If he were two years older, by the way, I'd probably be a whole lot less enthusiastic. It's my sense that Julius Randle being 27, it's not actually that silly to believe his best ball and best performances are going to occur in the next couple of years.

The age is certainly a positive for him.  As far the idea of a guarantee, I don't think you can reasonably guarantee on any of that.  He has shot 5.5 3ptA/game the last two season and there are a lot of players that won't move off of long jumpers once they start taking them.  He has shot at least 33% on 3pters in only 2 of his 8 seasons and in 2 of his last 3 seasons shots significantly less than that.  So I just can't be comfortable about assuming that is what we would get.  Likewise, shooting outside of 10 feet on 2pt FGA twice per game is not something to rely on given that he has shot 4.8 and 6.8 attempts (not counting 3pt attempts) the last two seasons.  

I see the biggest risk around him continuing these shooting trends since the Josh Smith pattern is more common than the reverse (where a big escalates the number of jump shots over time rather than ratcheting them back).

[sturt]

5 minutes ago, AHF said:

He has shot 5.5 3ptA/game the last two season...

 

... So I just can't be comfortable about assuming that is what we would get. 

I (again) discount what a player does in an environment where he is, irrefutably or almost irrefutably, predominantly responsible for the success of his team (... aka... being "the guy"...) juxtaposed to what can be accurately predicted in an environment he walks into where he's not even starting. Right?

 

8 minutes ago, AHF said:

The age is certainly a positive for him.

Yep.

[AHF]

33 minutes ago, sturt said:

I (again) discount what a player does in an environment where he is, irrefutably or almost irrefutably, predominantly responsible for the success of his team (... aka... being "the guy"...) juxtaposed to what can be accurately predicted in an environment he walks into where he's not even starting. Right?

 

If we are going to be bringing Randle off the bench that opens another can of worms.  Don't know how he would respond to being benched behind JC.  I would probably bet on Randle being the starter being the older player and former All-Star/All-NBA player.  Would be a tough conversation in any case to send any of CC, JC or JR to the bench.

Just on shot selection, I'm just saying any frontcourt player who leans into being a jump shooter concerns me as far as whether they will be willing to reverse that trend.  Seems anecdotally like a lot of them aren't willing to go back into the post after moving towards the physically less demanding world of jump shooting.  I wouldn't rule it out for sure but I sure wouldn't guarantee it.

[sturt]

My enthusiasm for Randle as the lead of the second unit is high at this point, somewhat obviously.

It takes an absolute nosedive if the idea is to dispatch Collins.

 

It's not the same thing, but it's still too reminiscent of thinking "here's a great idea... let's replace Smitty with Rider!"

[Dynamo]

I wonder if Randle would have chemistry with the team.

[Vol4ever]

Not a Randle fan myself.   

[Peoriabird]

11 hours ago, AHF said:

If we are going to be bringing Randle off the bench that opens another can of worms.  Don't know how he would respond to being benched behind JC.  I would probably bet on Randle being the starter being the older player and former All-Star/All-NBA player.  Would be a tough conversation in any case to send any of CC, JC or JR to the bench.

Just on shot selection, I'm just saying any frontcourt player who leans into being a jump shooter concerns me as far as whether they will be willing to reverse that trend.  Seems anecdotally like a lot of them aren't willing to go back into the post after moving towards the physically less demanding world of jump shooting.  I wouldn't rule it out for sure but I sure wouldn't guarantee it.

What if he agrees to come off the bench like Gallo did.  Would it be worth it then?

[sturt]

10 hours ago, sturt said:

My enthusiasm for Randle as the lead of the second unit is high at this point, somewhat obviously.

It takes an absolute nosedive if the idea is to dispatch Collins.

 

It's not the same thing, but it's still too reminiscent of thinking "here's a great idea... let's replace Smitty with Rider!"

 

[Atlantaholic]

He has had one really good season and before that he was Greg Manroe, after it he is looking like Josh Smith without the defense. Hard, hard pass.