The Julius Randle Fit

[sturt]

Whereas...

There is a substantial likelihood that ATL will look to trade Danillo Gallinari either to a team ultimately mainly interested in using him to shed a little salary off their spreadsheet (ostensibly, trading a $8.85m player for him @ $5m, and then cutting him)... or to a team legitimately interested to have him play for them for a year @ $21.45m, filling a void...

And whereas...

There is a decent, though maybe not "substantial," likelihood that NYK will look to trade Julius Randle, given his inability this season to lead his team to the playoffs and regress from his 2020-21 All-NBA numbers juxtaposed to the four years remaining on his mid-$20s contract...

And whereas...

For some of the same major reasons ATL fans lust for a Ben Simmons on the Hawks' roster, Julius Randle is also highly-regarded--specifically, his ability to credibly guard multiple positions (just not as many as BS), the quality of his defense (just not as strong as BS), and his ability to make good-to-great passes often (just not as often as BS)...

And whereas...

For the same major reason there is reason to wonder if Ben Simmons could be marketable (ie, the perception that he's been psychologically marked by having been so widely and deeply criticized for the notable weakness in his game), there are those who wonder if the Knicks fans' disdain for Randle (as he experienced a fall from grace that also seemed to begin with the 2021 playoffs vs. ATL) has marked him...

And whereas...

A distinct difference between Simmons and Randle is that Randle has always been regarded as having a decent-to-good shot, and anywhere on the floor...

And whereas...

It makes some sense that there is a match between what ATL wants/needs as they (likely) move on from Gallo (ie, a proficient, legitimate 2-way player to be part of the low post rotation) and what NYK wants/needs as they give a serious look at the risk/reward of keeping versus parting with Randle (ie, whether the prudent decision is to unload the four years of significant salary burden, in view of how they might reallocate that instead to a valuable free agency piece next off-season)...

And whereas...

ATL is entering into a new era of salary cap management, wherein it has become necessary now to reduce the amount of the budget taken up by the second column of the depth chart--essentially meaning the ~$50m previously slotted for three veteran players needs to become more like ~$40m...

And whereas...

It is a valid trade proposition in terms of the NBA's collective bargaining agreement that Gallinari (and his $20.45m contract for one year) be exchanged straight-up for Randle (and his $23.76m contract that grows for the three years beyond this next one)...

 

Therefore...

By the power vested in me as a Hawks fan of 50+ years, and as the first-est Hawksquawker to ever post on the Squawk board...

I hereby proclaim Julius Deion Randle, age 27, to be "on the watch list" for the 2022 off-season as a potential Travis Schlenk acquisition, even as I also declare myself officially now an advocate of said transaction.

Long live the king!

 

 

 

 

[marco102]

27 minutes ago, sturt said:

Whereas...

There is a substantial likelihood that ATL will look to trade Danillo Gallinari either to a team ultimately mainly interested in using him to shed a little salary off their spreadsheet (ostensibly, trading a $8.85m player for him @ $5m, and then cutting him)... or to a team legitimately interested to have him play for them for a year @ $21.45m, filling a void...

And whereas...

There is a decent, though maybe not "substantial," likelihood that NYK will look to trade Julius Randle, given his inability this season to lead his team to the playoffs and regress from his 2020-21 All-NBA numbers juxtaposed to the four years remaining on his mid-$20s contract...

And whereas...

For some of the same major reasons ATL fans lust for a Ben Simmons on the Hawks' roster, Julius Randle is also highly-regarded--specifically, his ability to credibly guard multiple positions (just not as many as BS), the quality of his defense (just not as strong as BS), and his ability to make good-to-great passes often (just not as often as BS)...

And whereas...

For the same major reason there is reason to wonder if Ben Simmons could be marketable (ie, the perception that he's been psychologically marked by having been so widely and deeply criticized for the notable weakness in his game), there are those who wonder if the Knicks fans' disdain for Randle (as he experienced a fall from grace that also seemed to begin with the 2021 playoffs vs. ATL) has marked him...

And whereas...

A distinct difference between Simmons and Randle is that Randle has always been regarded as having a decent-to-good shot, and anywhere on the floor...

And whereas...

It makes some sense that there is a match between what ATL wants/needs as they (likely) move on from Gallo (ie, a proficient, legitimate 2-way player to be part of the low post rotation) and what NYK wants/needs as they give a serious look at the risk/reward of keeping versus parting with Randle (ie, whether the prudent decision is to unload the four years of significant salary burden, in view of how they might reallocate that instead to a valuable free agency piece next off-season)...

And whereas...

ATL is entering into a new era of salary cap management, wherein it has become necessary now to reduce the amount of the budget taken up by the second column of the depth chart--essentially meaning the ~$50m previously slotted for three veteran players needs to become more like ~$40m...

And whereas...

It is a valid trade proposition in terms of the NBA's collective bargaining agreement that Gallinari (and his $20.45m contract for one year) be exchanged straight-up for Randle (and his $23.76m contract that grows for the three years beyond this next one)...

 

Therefore...

By the power vested in me as a Hawks fan of 50+ years, and as the first-est Hawksquawker to ever post on the Squawk board...

I hereby proclaim Julius Deion Randle, age 27, to be "on the watch list" for the 2022 off-season as a potential Travis Schlenk acquisition, even as I also declare myself officially now an advocate of said transaction.

Long live the king!

 

 

 

 

There is none.

[sturt]

6 minutes ago, marco102 said:

There is none.

hehe

 

@marco102 my friend, I too often in my real-life circles find reason to have to say this, and yet it may be (?) the first time I've said it here in this circle...

 

Dismissiveness isn't an argument.

It's only dismissiveness.

[Diesel]

The only problem is I don't think that you have clearly gauged NY's value of Randle.   Last i heard, they were interested in sending him to Utah for Spyda Mitchell.   Of course, some extras would be involved... but that is a far cry from him for Gallo. 

There was also talk of him/players for Brandon Ingram.

I just happen to believe that like they always do, NY has overvalued Randle.

 

[nathan2331]

I don't think the Knicks are that desperate to dump Randle. While he's not the player they hoped he'd be, I don't think they'd be interested at all in trading him for Gallo. Free agency for them is a pipe dream. I was wrong when the Nets managed to form their superteam, but I don't think the Knicks have those kind of plans.

 

That being said, if the Knicks were intersted, Schlenk would be a fool not to try and get a deal done.

[sturt]

9 hours ago, Diesel said:

The only problem is I don't think that you have clearly gauged NY's value of Randle.   Last i heard, they were interested in sending him to Utah for Spyda Mitchell.   Of course, some extras would be involved... but that is a far cry from him for Gallo. 

There was also talk of him/players for Brandon Ingram.

I just happen to believe that like they always do, NY has overvalued Randle.

 

Well, of course, that's plausible, but in reality, we can't know what we can't know from the outside. All we can do is reason about what seems reasonable. These exercises, at least how I approach them, are rarely, "This makes too much sense not to happen so this will happen"... but rather, "It's just fun mental gymnastics to consider what makes enough sense that it could happen... it isn't unreasonable."

 

9 hours ago, nathan2331 said:

I don't think the Knicks are that desperate to dump Randle. While he's not the player they hoped he'd be, I don't think they'd be interested at all in trading him for Gallo. Free agency for them is a pipe dream. I was wrong when the Nets managed to form their superteam, but I don't think the Knicks have those kind of plans.

That being said, if the Knicks were intersted, Schlenk would be a fool not to try and get a deal done.

I agree that I don't think the Knicks are desperate to dump Randle, but gauging from blog writers and their fans, there's a palpable want for them to pursue it... so that door might be cracked open just a tad.

Similar to the previous comment, I think they likely would get some stronger talent offers for Randle... but... would any of those offers be for a better talent who also only commits them to a single year of obligation (?). That is what I could imagine would be compelling.... because...

I disagree that the Knicks are disinterested in free agency. (Strongly, actually.) In no universe can they credibly consider their top 3 contracts (Randle @ $29-ish AAV for 4 yrs., Fournier @ $18-ish AAV for 4 yrs., and 33 yr-old Rose @ $14-ish AAV for 3 yrs but a club option year coming up in 2023) anything but obstacles to their long-term hopes and dreams. They need a re-set... a fire sale... and the sooner the better b/c Barrett's coming up on RFA status, and they need to make him want to remain a Knick.

And they can be legitimate players in free agency for 2023... discarding those three contracts if we imagine a cap @ $126m, would give them about $80m in space to operate with, glancing at how spotrac shows it... no pipe dreaming.

 

The bigger issue to me beyond any of that was/is "Does this cat fit this roster better than the other suspects?"

Took me a day to chew on it. I'm now persuaded he does... if not better, then at least as much as. And only Ayton seems more likely to be more of a candidate, comparing again to the "other suspects"... think BRK wants to see Simmons play for them... think it's a real question whether UTH will move Gobert or Mitchell rather than try to shift some of the other parts in the pursuit of higher success... think LaVine will do what everyone normally does, and go with whoever offers the most money, and that's far more likely to be the Bulls and it's far more likely that the chatter right now is just agent strategery. The Knicks, though, are in a pickle, and while stubbornness might win out after all, reason is loudly shouting for some significant roster adjustments.

[nathan2331]

4 minutes ago, sturt said:

I agree that I don't think the Knicks are desperate to dump Randle, but gauging from blog writers and their fans, there's a palpable want for them to pursue it... so that door might be cracked open just a tad.

Similar to the previous comment, I think they likely would get some stronger talent offers for Randle... but... would any of those offers be for a better talent who also only commits them to a single year of obligation (?). That is what I could imagine would be compelling.... because...

I disagree that the Knicks are disinterested in free agency. (Strongly, actually.) In no universe can they credibly consider their top 3 contracts (Randle @ $29-ish AAV for 4 yrs., Fournier @ $18-ish AAV for 4 yrs., and 33 yr-old Rose @ $14-ish AAV for 3 yrs but a club option year coming up in 2023) anything but obstacles to their long-term hopes and dreams. They need a re-set... a fire sale... and the sooner the better b/c Barrett's coming up on RFA status, and they need to make him want to remain a Knick.

And they can be legitimate players in free agency for 2023... discarding those three contracts if we imagine a cap @ $126m, would give them about $80m in space to operate with, glancing at how spotrac shows it... no pipe dreaming.

 

The bigger issue to me beyond any of that was/is "Does this cat fit this roster better than the other suspects?"

Took me a day to chew on it. I'm now persuaded he does... if not better, then at least as much as. And only Ayton seems more likely to be more of a candidate, comparing again to the "other suspects"... think BRK wants to see Simmons play for them... think it's a real question whether UTH will move Gobert or Mitchell rather than try to shift some of the other parts in the pursuit of higher success... think LaVine will do what everyone normally does, and go with whoever offers the most money, and that's far more likely to be the Bulls and it's far more likely that the chatter right now is just agent strategery. The Knicks, though, are in a pickle, and while stubbornness might win out after all, reason is loudly shouting for some significant roster adjustments.

Unless Barrett hates the Knicks enough to take their qualifying offer, it's the Knicks decision to make whether he stays on that team or not. They'll most likely pay him whatever it'll take because 2023 is gonna be a weak year for free agents. They can create the space, but for who? A soon-to-be 40 year old Lebron? Sign and trade for a disgruntled and oft-injured Zion? 2023 is not going to be good year to have large amounts of cap space. Randle may not be part of their long-term pans, but that doesn't mean he needs to go for peanuts. Unless there are off-court issues I'm not aware of, the Randle isn't a toxic asset you'd trade for an expiring.

 

...Now if the Knicks decided to tank for the 2023 draft, then I could see their motivation to get Gallo. If I was the GM that's the direction I'd move in because they have no other means to acquire a franchise player. But GM's don't have that kind of job security.

[JayBirdHawk]

2 hours ago, sturt said:

There is a substantial likelihood that ATL will look to trade Danillo Gallinari either to a team ultimately mainly interested in using him to shed a little salary off their spreadsheet (ostensibly, trading a $8.85m player for him @ $5m, and then cutting him)... or to a team legitimately interested to have him play for them for a year @ $21.45m, filling a void...

Here's another little nugget (bolded) regarding trading a non-guaranteed contract and having his new team waive him:

Under the current CBA, only the guaranteed portion of a player’s contract counts for outgoing salary purposes in a trade, limiting the appeal of non-guaranteed salaries as trade chips.

This detail is crucial for determining how much salary a team can acquire in a trade — unless a team is under the cap, the amount of salary it sends out in a trade dictates how much salary it can take back. The amount of salary an over-the-cap team can acquire in a trade ranges from 125% to 175% of its outgoing salary, depending on how much salary the team is sending out and whether or not the team is a taxpayer.

In the old system, it might make sense for a cap-strapped club to trade a player with a guaranteed salary for a player earning an equivalent non-guaranteed salary — the cap-strapped club could then waive that newly-acquired player to cut costs. That’s trickier to do now.

Complicating matters further is that a team can’t simply circumvent the new rules by trading a player before a league year ends on June 30, then having his new team waive him when his non-guaranteed salary goes into effect on July 1. After the end of the regular season, a player’s outgoing salary for trade purposes is the lesser of his current-year salary and the guaranteed portion of his salary for the following season.

 

 

[sturt]

49 minutes ago, nathan2331 said:

2023 is gonna be a weak year for free agents.

I always hesitate to make that kind of prediction, either way. Hard to know who will assert himself in 2022-23 who hadn't really asserted himself until then... or, if that's the case for any pending free agent for that matter. It's too early to make that call from where I sit.

 

 

49 minutes ago, nathan2331 said:

Randle may not be part of their long-term pans, but that doesn't mean he needs to go for peanuts. Unless there are off-court issues I'm not aware of, the Randle isn't a toxic asset you'd trade for an expiring.

The value is always set by supply/demand, and the timing of that, as much as it is perception.

Case in point, once Travis made the decision, he took the best offer on the table immediately... to the dismay of many at the time... and just like that, Dwight was in Charlotte, and we were left with, iirc, Bellinelli and the least talented of the Plumlees.

It happens. It happened to us.

 

49 minutes ago, nathan2331 said:

Now if the Knicks decided to tank for the 2023 draft, then I could see their motivation to get Gallo. If I was the GM that's the direction I'd move in because they have no other means to acquire a franchise player. But GM's don't have that kind of job security.

Tanking for the 2023 draft and for the purposes of capitalizing on the 2023 FA market are not mutually exclusive ideas, of course.

But we agree... I mean, Scott Perry's been there since 2017, and they even compensated SAC with a draft pick to be able to get him... so there are some expectations, one would think, that haven't yet been met... but the reality remains... they're not in a position to credibly think they can take a step forward until they go backward.

 

 

 

[sturt]

8 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Here's another little nugget (bolded) regarding trading a non-guaranteed contract and having his new team waive him:

Under the current CBA, only the guaranteed portion of a player’s contract counts for outgoing salary purposes in a trade, limiting the appeal of non-guaranteed salaries as trade chips.

This detail is crucial for determining how much salary a team can acquire in a trade — unless a team is under the cap, the amount of salary it sends out in a trade dictates how much salary it can take back. The amount of salary an over-the-cap team can acquire in a trade ranges from 125% to 175% of its outgoing salary, depending on how much salary the team is sending out and whether or not the team is a taxpayer.

In the old system, it might make sense for a cap-strapped club to trade a player with a guaranteed salary for a player earning an equivalent non-guaranteed salary — the cap-strapped club could then waive that newly-acquired player to cut costs. That’s trickier to do now.

Complicating matters further is that a team can’t simply circumvent the new rules by trading a player before a league year ends on June 30, then having his new team waive him when his non-guaranteed salary goes into effect on July 1. After the end of the regular season, a player’s outgoing salary for trade purposes is the lesser of his current-year salary and the guaranteed portion of his salary for the following season.

 

 

Right.

But the idea here is that ATL would go ahead and guarantee Gallo's salary (deadline is 6/29)--it would be necessary to make the trade for Randle. The Knicks would be taking the $21.45m 1-year commitment, and ridding themselves of a $29m AAV over the 4 years of Randle's contract.

As nathan just suggested, if the Knicks decide on an overhaul, yes, that makes sense... effectively end up with a better pick in a draft that people seem to think will have future stars, and at the same time, have full maneuverability for 2023 free agency.

Why would ATL be okay with the $29m AAV for 4 years if NYK isn't?

Good question. Part of it would rest in the widely held presumption that the next NBA TVcontract(s) will spike the salary cap in the coming years, such that $29m would be a decent value after all. With that, Randle is also entering what normally are a player's most productive NBA years.

 

[kg01]

10 hours ago, sturt said:

hehe

@marco102 my friend, I too often in my real-life circles find reason to have to say this, and yet it may be (?) the first time I've said it here in this circle...

Dismissiveness isn't an argument.

It's only dismissiveness.

I agree with my guy, @marco102.  Don't tell him I said that though.

My reasoning isn't really quantifiable though, I guess.  Mine is more a philosophical objection (I'm trying to sound smart, let me know if it's working).

Seriously though, the guy Scalabrine laid it out pretty well w.r.t. why Randle struggled this past year.  Stop me if you've heard this one before, I've explained this a couple times.

He basically said the increased physicality was supposed to impact guys like Trae, Harden, etc.  But it actually impacted guys like Randle more.

In the prior year, Randle took advantage of the soft whistle and was rewarded with constant free throws from light contact.  This allowed him to play with a consistent level of aggressiveness that some folks misinterpreted as "playing with force".  Defenders had to back off, which allowed him to play/move with space.

In reality it was all fake-hustle.  Fast-forward to this past season when the refs, rightly or wrongly, forced guys to "prove it" by withholding the whistle.  He no longer got the soft calls and, more importantly, defenders no longer had to back off.  So, instead of playing with space, he had to actually play through actual contact and was unable to do so.

His relative lack of skill (not saying he's unskilled), resulted in him being unable to adjust and find answers to his struggle.  (If you also recall, I also broke down how/why, despite having a lot of assists, he's actually not a playmaker but that's another discussion.)  This season he failed mightily.  Immaturely, he lashed out at the fans/media and never recovered.

So, instead of using his fugazy mvp-type year as the norm, I think folks should look back to his NOP/LAL days in assessing his fit.  Because I think that's the player he is.  If you think that's a good add, so be it.  But please don't think we're ever gonna see that mvp-year Randle ever again.

whew, that's way too many words for a kg post.  I blame you, stu.

[sturt]

Yes, that sounds smart.

See what "too many words" does?   It makes a coherent, compelling argument.

And I can't say you're wrong. It's a reasonable theory. I don't watch the guy that often, so I have to put it on the table as worthy of consideration.

I do believe there are other theories on said table that explain the regression. And potentially better. But I'd have to do a more serious study to come to any firm conclusion, of course, and for now, my only real purpose is to suggest this is one of the options that make at least as much sense as the other assets that some Hawks fans are banging the table for. I'll save the more serious study for later.

[shakes]

TL:DR

 

Here is all you need to know.  Randle sucks and is a dbag.

 

 

[AHF]

Which Randle you are getting is part of the issue.  His All-Star season I think is an outlier and no one trading for him should expect him to play like that and be that good.  What he has demonstrated is an ability to pass the ball very well for a big man, to rebound the ball effectively, and to score effectively but how  he scores has been a moving target.

In Randle's last season in LA and first season in NO, he was highly efficient with a TS% over .600%.  He put up 16 and 21 points those seasons.  But his game started a transformation that I'm not sure is good for him.  In NO, he started taking more perimeter shots.  His bread and butter was still closer to the basket but he went from taking 10% of his shots as 16+ foot jumpers to 20% of his shots.  

When he went to NY that transformation continued and his efficiency plummeted from those sweet .600 seasons.

2019-20  He went from 20% 16+ foot jumpers to 31% and since he isn't particularly good at taking long jumpers his TS% dropped from .600% to .533%.

2020-21  He increased that 31% 16+ foot jumpers from the prior season to 37% but the good news for him is that he shot 41% on those long jumpers (including 41% on his 3pt attempts) which pushed his TS% from an ugly and inefficient .533% to a solid if not great .567%.  Still probably not a good exchange to go from 21.4 ppg at .600% TS% to 24.1 ppg at .567% but that is not that far off.

2021-22  He continued to push the envelope going from 37% long jumpers to 46% long jumpers and his TS% cratered to a horrific .509% TS% as his long jumpers dropped from that career anomoly season at 41% to a more normal (for Randle) ~32% (his career %s from 16-3pt range and 3pt range are ugly 34% and 33%).

So if Randle is going to continue to shoot 40%+ long jumpers then I'm not interested.  His number of open looks playing with Trae would definitely increase but he just isn't that good of a jump shooter and he doesn't have the leaping ability to finish the PnR like some other big men who have flourished offensively next to Trae.  If the Hawks could convince him to re-ground himself in an efficient scoring style (i.e., cut way down on the long jumpers) then he becomes a much more interesting and productive player.  But even free I'm not interested if he is going to maintain that shift to being a rich man's Josh Smith (i.e., someone who undermines their own success due to their bad shot selection).

[macdaddy]

As a fan I admit I just don't know who we should be targeting because we need the NEXT Brandon Ingram or Julius Randle.   Randle is already damaged goods in my mind in that his approach to the game has gotten out of whack in NY.    BI well we could still use him but NO isn't giving him up.  That ship has sailed.    We need to find who the undervalued young guys are now and develop them to work with the Hawks.    Any ideas?   

[kg01]

4 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

As a fan I admit I just don't know who we should be targeting because we need the NEXT Brandon Ingram or Julius Randle.   Randle is already damaged goods in my mind in that his approach to the game has gotten out of whack in NY.    BI well we could still use him but NO isn't giving him up.  That ship has sailed.    We need to find who the undervalued young guys are now and develop them to work with the Hawks.    Any ideas?   

Great question, as always wacd.  This should be a thread on it's own.

Honestly, our very own Jalen Johnson could be in the mold of being 'that guy'.

Sure would've been nice to get him some time this year to wet his feet, but I digress....

[Spud2nique]

1 hour ago, sturt said:

See what "too many words" does?   It makes a coherent, compelling argument.

I don’t have the patience for it. 

[shakes]

19 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

I don’t have the patience for it. 

yea, I'm convinced that the only people who read long posts on message boards are unemployed vagrants stealing wifi from the bus terminal.

[kg01]

15 minutes ago, shakes said:

yea, I'm convinced that the only people who read long posts on message boards are unemployed vagrants stealing wifi from the bus terminal.

You don't have to 'steal' what's free, bro.

Wait, did I just out myself?

[GThawks3]

Randle is not a good defender or shooter  at all and not worth close to his contact. Gallo is at least expiring. He’s not good off the ball either and horrible attitude. Would not touch Randle with a 10 foot pole.

Edited May 26, 2022 by GThawks3