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John Collins trade watch


Peoriabird

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The dynamic is going to be very different this year with Murray here and Kev and Gallo gone.   The starting lineup last year, outside of Trae, had a bunch of guys who just passed to get rid of the ball not to set someone up.   That changes now and it should benefit everyone but especially JC who can knock down shots from anywhere and is a great finisher around the rim.  

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2 minutes ago, AHF said:

JC  is here to stay in the absence of some huge deal that I'm not really seeing happening right now.  I am very relieved we are not going to move him for garbage to clean up our cap sheet.  He is a quality player and teammate.  Love rooting for him in Atlanta.

Agreed.

If there was an obvious deal out there I would feel differently. But Brooklyn wants to keep Simmons, Suns want Clint for Ayton, and KD, yeah. We shall see.

Other than the fact that I don’t like Simmons, if John is moved for any of those guys I would understand it. That makes sense. Just like using Gallo’s contract in a deal this summer always made sense. The day JC resigned, his contract became a chess piece for us to use to make a bigger move or just hold on to him. That has always been the case.

That bigger deal is not currently available, especially until the KD smoke dies down, so we will stand pat. Which is smart.

I don’t see what the fixation is that we “have” to trade him just because one insider has been pushing him out the door since 2019.

I am for improving the roster. If we can bring back a guy that makes us better I am all for it. People are just trigger happy right now itching to make moves for the sake of saying they did something.

 

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13 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

The dynamic is going to be very different this year with Murray here and Kev and Gallo gone.   The starting lineup last year, outside of Trae, had a bunch of guys who just passed to get rid of the ball not to set someone up.   That changes now and it should benefit everyone but especially JC who can knock down shots from anywhere and is a great finisher around the rim.  

This is what I'm hoping for.  I don't want to trade Collins.  I think he's a great 3rd option, but I'm not as thrilled sacrificing his touches in the offense for someone who can't do anything outside of the PNR.  Which, I also feel compelled to say for the board (because we love to call someone a hater)...

I also like Capela a lot and would rather not trade him outside of a clear upgrade.  I really want to see IF Murray can come in and change the dynamics of this in a good way.  IFnot and IF we continue to struggle, I would rather deal Capela than Collins IF it comes down to having to choose one or the other in a package.  And IF I had to choose what kind of player I would replace either with at the 4/5, it would obviously be a guy that could help space the floor.

Lastly, IF JJ and/or OO prove to be starter quality material, I would prefer them to replace our current starters in their projected slot and trade said starters rather than bench them IF we could get a decent upgrade out of it.

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43 minutes ago, RedDawg#8 said:

Everyone else was available for the right price to IMPROVE to roster

I hope the Huerter trade improves the roster.   Right now it feels like a move to get a pick back and save some money.  But hopefully i'm wrong and Holiday is that guy folks are saying he is. 

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15 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

I hope the Huerter trade improves the roster.   Right now it feels like a move to get a pick back and save some money.  But hopefully i'm wrong and Holiday is that guy folks are saying he is. 

I think the Huerter move was clearly about getting the pick and managing the cap and not about improving the roster for this year.  We got back talent that we hope won't make it a big loss on the court but it wasn't a move made to improve the roster this season.

I'm confident at this point we won't be moving JC for any reason other than improving the roster.

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5 minutes ago, AHF said:

I think the Huerter move was clearly about getting the pick and managing the cap and not about improving the roster for this year.  We got back talent that we hope won't make it a big loss on the court but it wasn't a move made to improve the roster this season.

I'm confident at this point we won't be moving JC for any reason other than improving the roster.

Yeah that's what i think.  I'm just glad (or hoping) that everyone realizes that some of the messaging from ownership is not really accurate and the truth is they aren't going into the LT at least not in any significant way.  

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1 hour ago, macdaddy said:

Yeah that's what i think.  I'm just glad (or hoping) that everyone realizes that some of the messaging from ownership is not really accurate and the truth is they aren't going into the LT at least not in any significant way.  

In the absence of a big deal at this point, I see us wanting to avoid the LT entirely.  That makes some long-term sense because once you are in the LT you get brutalized when you are a repeater so there is no reason to dip your toe into the LT.  

1 hour ago, Gray Mule said:

AHF - You will be surprised if the Hurder trade improves the Hawks.  I want you to be surprised!  🥰

Anytime I have low expectations for a Hawk, I always want to be surprised in a good way!  :approved:

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1 hour ago, RedDawg#8 said:

Agreed.

If there was an obvious deal out there I would feel differently. But Brooklyn wants to keep Simmons, Suns want Clint for Ayton, and KD, yeah. We shall see.

Other than the fact that I don’t like Simmons, if John is moved for any of those guys I would understand it. That makes sense. Just like using Gallo’s contract in a deal this summer always made sense. The day JC resigned, his contract became a chess piece for us to use to make a bigger move or just hold on to him. That has always been the case.

That bigger deal is not currently available, especially until the KD smoke dies down, so we will stand pat. Which is smart.

I don’t see what the fixation is that we “have” to trade him just because one insider has been pushing him out the door since 2019.

I am for improving the roster. If we can bring back a guy that makes us better I am all for it. People are just trigger happy right now itching to make moves for the sake of saying they did something.

 

Listen, we're largely in agreement on a lot of things here, there are just a few major sticking points we seem to be talking past each other. So lemme try to clarify my position. I'm not advocating for trading JC, especially not for a move that doesn't improve our roster (but the improvement doesn't have to be this year either, it could be as simple as improving the long-term health of the roster from multiple angles such as roster fit, salary cap allocation, etc...). John seems like a great person and a great teammate. He is a positive asset on this roster; he has value.

We should definitely not be trying to trade him for peanuts or a salary dump, nor do I think we are or would. If we can't improve the roster by trading him then obviously the smart play is to simply bring him back: unless there is something going on behind the scenes where the relationship is so fractured it can't be repaired. However we have no concrete indication of that. Supes did point out Trae went to the front office and vouched for Capela, but emphasized that he didn't do the same for Collins. Who knows the reason or how important that actually is in the grand scheme of things, but it doesn't seem like a nothing-burger. 

What I AM doing is pushing back on the narrative some people seem to have that there is no justifiable reason to trade him, or that there is no fire where there is plenty of smoke. Some people don't even seem to want to acknowledge the smoke. There is plenty of reason to consider trading John, as noted in my earlier post about how difficult it is to field a team around him that takes FULL advantage of his strengths. Not where he can still be useful, but where a team gets to use his FULL skillset to maximize your return on investment. Especially when that conflicts with the team your need around your superstar, when JC isn't anywhere close to a star player himself. You build around your superstar, not role players. 

Let's talk about when you said this: "Show me a direct quote from JC or his camp about what he wants to do. Doesn’t exist. It’s all the same rumor being recycled over and over." We'll get back to that. 

You can't in one post criticise me for believing what I hear and then in the next post say, "But Brooklyn wants to keep Simmons, Suns want Clint for Ayton, and KD, yeah." Those aren't direct quotes from those players or their representatives, nor their teams. You know as well as I do we aren't going to get direct quotes about any of this at this time of the year. We only know about most of what we discuss here due to our three insiders, and occasionally some nuggets from reporters.  

Such as this from Kirschner in The Athletic: “He’s done in Atlanta,” a source close to Collins said. Or the multiple other reporters that stated even after the Murray trade the Hawks still are trying to trade JC. Again, I'm not pushing for him to be traded, but I'm not going to pretend there isn't a lot of smoke either. 

The prototype for a 4 alongside Trae, especially paired with a traditional non-stretch 5, is at a minimum an excellent interior defender that can also step out on the perimeter and hold up against at least most small forward types, while being at least a league average 3 pt shooter, decent rebounder, screen setting, and ball hand offs. That's the bare minimum prototype. That type of player should probably cost a team somewhere between $10m to $15m. We are paying John $23.5m, and he doesn't even meet all the minimum requirements we need from the position. 

In addition, it helps even more if that player can ball switch 1 thru 4, and also provide weakside rim protection. The price would go up. Going further would be post-up production, passing, and/or ball handling/creation. The price would go up again. 

But the absolute least desirable skill for a 4 in our scenario is PnR. That is the job of the 5, who really has no other value on offense other than rebounding and putbacks. That is not to say it is a useless skill for a 4: obviously it is still helpful. But it is not ideal. And we are paying top dollar for that skill when we can't maximize its use, so our return on investment is not good. And any PnR chances we take away from Clint to give to JC also reduces our return on Clint's contract. 

Talking about what JC still gets done in our offense or how efficient our offense was last year does not change the fact that it is not an ideal return on our investment or that JC's skills aren't being wasted to some extent. In a perfect world We would be paying about $13m for a 4 that fits our roster better and could then use that extra ~$10m to improve the roster elsewhere. But this isn't a perfect world so we do the best with what we've got.

If that means keeping JC then I'm 100% fine with that; that is a decision above my paygrade. Let's just please stop pretending JC here is a great fit or great value on his contract. And let's also stop missing the point when those of us point these things out and talk about potential trade partners, moves, etc...  This is after all a message board where people engage in mental masturbation as a daily ritual. 

56 minutes ago, Wretch said:

This is what I'm hoping for.  I don't want to trade Collins.  I think he's a great 3rd option, but I'm not as thrilled sacrificing his touches in the offense for someone who can't do anything outside of the PNR.  Which, I also feel compelled to say for the board (because we love to call someone a hater)...

I also like Capela a lot and would rather not trade him outside of a clear upgrade.  I really want to see IF Murray can come in and change the dynamics of this in a good way.  IFnot and IF we continue to struggle, I would rather deal Capela than Collins IF it comes down to having to choose one or the other in a package.  And IF I had to choose what kind of player I would replace either with at the 4/5, it would obviously be a guy that could help space the floor.

Lastly, IF JJ and/or OO prove to be starter quality material, I would prefer them to replace our current starters in their projected slot and trade said starters rather than bench them IF we could get a decent upgrade out of it.

Agree with a lot of this except for trading Capela instead of Collins if it comes down to one of them having to go. Capela is easily the obvious choice to stay in that scenario. He's a more typical prototype for his position that doesn't have to be square pegged into a round hole, unlike Collins. 

46 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

I hope the Huerter trade improves the roster.   Right now it feels like a move to get a pick back and save some money.  But hopefully i'm wrong and Holiday is that guy folks are saying he is. 

Unfortunately the Huerter move was necessary for the long-term health of the roster. We can't afford to have $34m per year tied up in backups now that we no longer have most of our important players on rookie-scale contracts. Bogi would have been the smarter trade option, except he decided to have knee issues at the worst possible time in regards to his trade value. We are now at the stage of our rebuild where some players will have to be prioritized over others as far as who gets paid and who gets moved out. The salary cap sucks and this is clearly a talent downgrade in the short-term. But this move helps us keep other players on the roster long-term and got us more backup depth on more reasonable contracts in the short-term.  

29 minutes ago, AHF said:

I'm confident at this point we won't be moving JC for any reason other than improving the roster.

My inclination is to disagree with this, but I will say I agree if it's from the viewpoint of what I said above: (but the improvement doesn't have to be this year either, it could be as simple as improving the long-term health of the roster from multiple angles such as roster fit, salary cap allocation, etc...) 

For example, if we traded for a $10 to $15m per year for a 4 or 5 less talented player that fits our roster better than JC, or at least most of the prototype skills, along with a future pick or other asset then I would 100% call that an improvement. Due primarily to what I would consider to be better asset allocation under the salary cap going forward. While we might suffer an initial talent downgrade, the roster is better setup for success due to having a player that probably provides better team synergy on the floor (even with lower statistical numbers) while allowing you to spend money on other roster upgrades elsewhere. 

I guess most people would not agree it would be an improvement because they would only be looking at the immediate talent downgrade from JC to the other player. So it really comes down to how people define improvement. 

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1 hour ago, macdaddy said:

Yeah that's what i think.  I'm just glad (or hoping) that everyone realizes that some of the messaging from ownership is not really accurate and the truth is they aren't going into the LT at least not in any significant way.  

 

23 minutes ago, AHF said:

In the absence of a big deal at this point, I see us wanting to avoid the LT entirely.  That makes some long-term sense because once you are in the LT you get brutalized when you are a repeater so there is no reason to dip your toe into the LT.  

Agree with this. My feeling is if we avoid the LT this year it's not really Ressler lying about being willing to be a LT team in the past. I view it more as prudent use of going into the LT, just like what he said in his comments about it last year. He's willing to go into the tax for a contending team; and honestly with the addition of DJM we don't really know if that pushes us into that conversation. We all hope it does, but at this point it's not a safe bet. 

If we are able to add a 3rd star to this roster this offseason that would improve those chances of us being a contending team, then I think Ressler would have no problem in paying the LT. But if we stay mostly as-is while we are right at the LT threshold, then it makes business sense to stay out of the tax and see how the roster does this year before committing to the tax next year if the results are favorable. 

As our cap gurus have said repeatedly, the repeater tax is what teams want to desperately avoid paying. 

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28 minutes ago, RandomFan said:

Listen, we're largely in agreement on a lot of things here, there are just a few major sticking points we seem to be talking past each other. So lemme try to clarify my position. I'm not advocating for trading JC, especially not for a move that doesn't improve our roster (but the improvement doesn't have to be this year either, it could be as simple as improving the long-term health of the roster from multiple angles such as roster fit, salary cap allocation, etc...). John seems like a great person and a great teammate. He is a positive asset on this roster; he has value.

We should definitely not be trying to trade him for peanuts or a salary dump, nor do I think we are or would. If we can't improve the roster by trading him then obviously the smart play is to simply bring him back: unless there is something going on behind the scenes where the relationship is so fractured it can't be repaired. However we have no concrete indication of that. Supes did point out Trae went to the front office and vouched for Capela, but emphasized that he didn't do the same for Collins. Who knows the reason or how important that actually is in the grand scheme of things, but it doesn't seem like a nothing-burger. 

What I AM doing is pushing back on the narrative some people seem to have that there is no justifiable reason to trade him, or that there is no fire where there is plenty of smoke. Some people don't even seem to want to acknowledge the smoke. There is plenty of reason to consider trading John, as noted in my earlier post about how difficult it is to field a team around him that takes FULL advantage of his strengths. Not where he can still be useful, but where a team gets to use his FULL skillset to maximize your return on investment. Especially when that conflicts with the team your need around your superstar, when JC isn't anywhere close to a star player himself. You build around your superstar, not role players. 

Let's talk about when you said this: "Show me a direct quote from JC or his camp about what he wants to do. Doesn’t exist. It’s all the same rumor being recycled over and over." We'll get back to that. 

You can't in one post criticise me for believing what I hear and then in the next post say, "But Brooklyn wants to keep Simmons, Suns want Clint for Ayton, and KD, yeah." Those aren't direct quotes from those players or their representatives, nor their teams. You know as well as I do we aren't going to get direct quotes about any of this at this time of the year. We only know about most of what we discuss here due to our three insiders, and occasionally some nuggets from reporters.  

Such as this from Kirschner in The Athletic: “He’s done in Atlanta,” a source close to Collins said. Or the multiple other reporters that stated even after the Murray trade the Hawks still are trying to trade JC. Again, I'm not pushing for him to be traded, but I'm not going to pretend there isn't a lot of smoke either. 

The prototype for a 4 alongside Trae, especially paired with a traditional non-stretch 5, is at a minimum an excellent interior defender that can also step out on the perimeter and hold up against at least most small forward types, while being at least a league average 3 pt shooter, decent rebounder, screen setting, and ball hand offs. That's the bare minimum prototype. That type of player should probably cost a team somewhere between $10m to $15m. We are paying John $23.5m, and he doesn't even meet all the minimum requirements we need from the position. 

In addition, it helps even more if that player can ball switch 1 thru 4, and also provide weakside rim protection. The price would go up. Going further would be post-up production, passing, and/or ball handling/creation. The price would go up again. 

But the absolute least desirable skill for a 4 in our scenario is PnR. That is the job of the 5, who really has no other value on offense other than rebounding and putbacks. That is not to say it is a useless skill for a 4: obviously it is still helpful. But it is not ideal. And we are paying top dollar for that skill when we can't maximize its use, so our return on investment is not good. And any PnR chances we take away from Clint to give to JC also reduces our return on Clint's contract. 

Talking about what JC still gets done in our offense or how efficient our offense was last year does not change the fact that it is not an ideal return on our investment or that JC's skills aren't being wasted to some extent. In a perfect world We would be paying about $13m for a 4 that fits our roster better and could then use that extra ~$10m to improve the roster elsewhere. But this isn't a perfect world so we do the best with what we've got.

If that means keeping JC then I'm 100% fine with that; that is a decision above my paygrade. Let's just please stop pretending JC here is a great fit or great value on his contract. And let's also stop missing the point when those of us point these things out and talk about potential trade partners, moves, etc...  This is after all a message board where people engage in mental masturbation as a daily ritual. 

Agree with a lot of this except for trading Capela instead of Collins if it comes down to one of them having to go. Capela is easily the obvious choice to stay in that scenario. He's a more typical prototype for his position that doesn't have to be square pegged into a round hole, unlike Collins. 

Unfortunately the Huerter move was necessary for the long-term health of the roster. We can't afford to have $34m per year tied up in backups now that we no longer have most of our important players on rookie-scale contracts. Bogi would have been the smarter trade option, except he decided to have knee issues at the worst possible time in regards to his trade value. We are now at the stage of our rebuild where some players will have to be prioritized over others as far as who gets paid and who gets moved out. The salary cap sucks and this is clearly a talent downgrade in the short-term. But this move helps us keep other players on the roster long-term and got us more backup depth on more reasonable contracts in the short-term.  

My inclination is to disagree with this, but I will say I agree if it's from the viewpoint of what I said above: (but the improvement doesn't have to be this year either, it could be as simple as improving the long-term health of the roster from multiple angles such as roster fit, salary cap allocation, etc...) 

For example, if we traded for a $10 to $15m per year for a 4 or 5 less talented player that fits our roster better than JC, or at least most of the prototype skills, along with a future pick or other asset then I would 100% call that an improvement. Due primarily to what I would consider to be better asset allocation under the salary cap going forward. While we might suffer an initial talent downgrade, the roster is better setup for success due to having a player that probably provides better team synergy on the floor (even with lower statistical numbers) while allowing you to spend money on other roster upgrades elsewhere. 

I guess most people would not agree it would be an improvement because they would only be looking at the immediate talent downgrade from JC to the other player. So it really comes down to how people define improvement. 

I think you and I are in ~90% agreement...differing over who we would move if we had to.  Even in that, I understand why you would prefer to keep Cap.

Also, let's not get our wires crossed. I didn't say this:

Quote

Let's talk about when you said this: "Show me a direct quote from JC or his camp about what he wants to do. Doesn’t exist. It’s all the same rumor being recycled over and over." We'll get back to that.

I think that was @RedDawg#8. I actually side with you.  I believe the insiders who say there is (or was) mutual interest in finding JC a new home. 

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I guess i'd say that saying you won't trade anyone if it doesn't improve the team and then saying that "long term health of the roster"  ie. saving money, is improving the team is just being disingenuous.  I've got no issue with doing it but let's call it what it is.  

On Collins, i love the guy.  He's my second favorite guy on the team and I really don't want to see him go.   But i also don't have illusions about who he is.  I think we're doing a great job of maximizing him and I'll say that if he is traded I don't see him ever approaching 20 ppg on another team.   Not that he can't do it but for better or worse he's a glue/hustle guy and a great spot up shooter.  Not a focal point.  

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10 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

...which no one has ever called him.

well maybe not but a lot of people keep saying we are 'using him incorrectly', 'not taking advantage of his strengths', 'needs more touches', 'he's sacrificing his game for the team'.   Sounds like they want him to be more of a focal point right?

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30 minutes ago, Wretch said:

I think you and I are in ~90% agreement...differing over who we would move if we had to.  Even in that, I understand why you would prefer to keep Cap.

Also, let's not get our wires crossed. I didn't say this:

I think that was @RedDawg#8. I actually side with you.  I believe the insiders who say there is (or was) mutual interest in finding JC a new home. 

Yes, I quoted Reddawg and was addressing his post when I said that. It's a multiple person response but they should be shown in order of quote and response. Is that not how it appears on your screen?

22 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

I guess i'd say that saying you won't trade anyone if it doesn't improve the team and then saying that "long term health of the roster"  ie. saving money, is improving the team is just being disingenuous. 

But that's not what I'm saying. It's not about "saving money." It's about spending money where it matters the most, and more importantly not wasting money where it's not serving you best. You don't pay extra to put a 3000lb winch on a Ferrari because you are never taking it off-road. It would be a waste of money when you could spend that money on better tires that hug the road. We can't afford to be spending money for luxury items anymore, not if there is a better fit out there. These franchises aren't playing with unlimited monopoly money. 

7 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

well maybe not but a lot of people keep saying we are 'using him incorrectly', 'not taking advantage of his strengths', 'needs more touches', 'he's sacrificing his game for the team'.   Sounds like they want him to be more of a focal point right?

I don't want him to be more of a focal point, not at all. What people are saying is on a team with Trae, if you can't put a center next to JC that is a stretch 5 on offense that also doesn't care about paint touches and is also a great rim protecting strong interior defender, then it is impossible to ever take full advantage of his strengths. That's it. 

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