Battle for the Back-up PF role?

[JayBirdHawk]

 

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Jalen Johnson

Jalen Johnson played historically-low minutes during his rookie season. Following one shortened season at Duke, Atlanta's front office and coaching staff identified the prospect as a long-term project. 

At 6'9" and 220 pounds, Johnson possesses the intangible qualities of a modern four but lacks on-the-job training. Therefore, he got most of his development with the College Park Skyhawks. Sometimes even opting to stay with the G League affiliate rather than making road trips as part of the Hawks' active roster.

De'Andre Hunter

De'Andre HunterAt 6'8" and 225 pounds, De'Andre Hunter has a similar build to the Hawks two true power forwards (John Collins and Jalen Johnson). According to Basketball-Reference, Hunter spent 35% of his time at the power forward spot last season. More importantly, Hunter has been tasked with picking up opponents' best player on defense since he first entered the league in 2019. The 24-year-old has proven more than capable of guarding multiple positions. That level of versatility is a hot commodity in the NBA, which provides Hunter leverage in his ongoing contract negotiations.

Moe Harkless

The NBA is a wings league now, and the Atlanta Hawks have a surplus of small forwards. That is one of the main reasons we initially plugged journeyman Moe Harkless in at the backup power forward position.

Harkless spent 24% of his time at the four with the Sacramento Kings last season. At 6'7" and 220 pounds, Harkless is capable of guarding opposing power forwards. The 29-year-old is still a net-positive defender after ten seasons in the league.

However, Harkless is a career 32% three-point shooter on low volume. That could explain why the veteran forward has seen a sharp decrease in playing time over the last two seasons. But then again, those percentages are on par with Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, who spent 15% of his 13 minutes per game last season at the four.

Onyeka Okongwu

In January, I wrote that Onyeka Okongwu's time is now. At 6'8" and 235 pounds, Okongwu is an undersized center. But the 21-year-old is a tenacious defender and rebounder.

It is a dream of Hawks fans that Okongwu transforms into a power forward over time. That is a hope reportedly shared by Atlanta's front office, hence their eagerness to trade John Collins.

Okongwu spent just 2% of his time on the court last season at the four. However, Okongwu pledged to spend the offseason working on his jump shot, and we have since seen videos of him working on his perimeter skills. A complete, healthy summer could be the launch pad for a breakout third season in the NBA for Okongwu.

Final Verdict

In theory, Jalen Johnson will be the Hawks second power forward. However, in practice, the Hawks will role with small-ball lineups featuring proven players like De'Andre Hunter and Moe Harkless at the four more - at least to start the season.

John Collins played 1,663 minutes on the court last season. That leaves 1,781 minutes to be filled at the power forward position (hopefully a lot less since Collins missed 28 games between Covid and injuries). Meanwhile, Johnson logged just 120 minutes in his rookie season.

This would be so Nate.

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Given Coach McMillan's affinity for older players, especially defensive-minded wings, it seems unlikely that Johnson immediately receives a significant role to start the season. But that is why position battles are played out on the court rather than on the internet. 

 

[Spud2nique]

I think Jalen is better than Harkless at this point. We will see soon enough, but Jalen got some in his bag for sure. Flashes last year were nice.

[sturt]

I don't perceive this one to be a battle. I sure hope not. I sure hope our 2021 first round pick is clearly better than what Mo's been the last 3 years... and that's if Mo ends up being the primary competitor for that spot. It would be so Schlenk like to go into the regular season with just 5 legitimate bigs (CC, OO, John, Jalen, and Frank). He did it last year. And Fields spoke after the trade as-if Mo was ticketed for a PF role. He's a natural for a Solo kind of utility knife role in the McM arsenal if he stays healthy.

Therein is a key consideration, of course. Neither Mo nor Frank, rationally speaking, should be relied upon for more than part of a season.

We need another big, imo.

[Final_quest]

Hmmmm…. I actually thought Frank the tank was our back up PF to start the season.  Would like to see Jalen fit in here or even as back up SF.  

[JayBirdHawk]

2 hours ago, Final_quest said:

I actually thought Frank the tank was our back up PF to start the season.

Did not think this at all.

[Final_quest]

6 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Did not think this at all.

That's where Soaring Down South has him.  He provides size and spacing next to Okongwu.  Less than a year ago he had his career high with Phoenix scoring 31 points on 12-18 shooting.  If healthy I consider him as at least an option for this role.  https://soaringdownsouth.com/2022/07/28/atlanta-hawks-frank-kaminsky-role/
 

There is no way that Kaminsky will start for the Hawks, that is not going to be his role with the team. He is most certainly going to play with the second unit, vying with Jalen Johnson for the role of the backup power forward position, as the rotations are certainly not set in stone.

However, he is going to be playing alongside Onyeka Okongwu in the frontcourt,

Jalen is the guy I want to see as the backup PF.  No one knows if he will get that PT out of the gates unless the coach or organization says that directly, which is unlikely.   

The other option is a tighter rotation where Collins, Okongwu, and Capela getting most all the minutes and other guys playing spot duty. 

There is a couple videos of Okongwu knocking down a jump shot, but I'm not convinced he is a shooter, which is why Kaminsky fits next to him.  He might actually win us some games like he did with Phoenix before Jalen is "allowed" to play.  

Edited September 8, 2022 by Final_quest

[sturt]

There would appear to be unanimity that JJ needs to be the 2nd unit PF, and though I'm unaware of Hawks braintrust saying it out loud so far, it seems to be a given that they would feel the same. I mean, he could be your backup SF conceivably, effectively displacing Justin Holiday from the 2nd unit, but then you have 3 wings in the 3rd unit (him, Griffin and Martin), plus a 4th (Brown) 2-way.... and, counting on one of Mo...

... or Frank to be your 2nd unit PF then... two guys who are about as fragile as any NBA players are fragile.

As we sit here today, it would appear that they're counting on Kaminsky as a 3rd C more than a PF, and Mo as a 3rd PF more than a SF. As said above, I'm not a fan of that. But as said above, Schlenk's evidently still holding to the philosophy that leaning toward smaller is better. He voiced that conviction after MIA made the finals two seasons ago, and it would seem he's sticking with it.

[AHF]

1 hour ago, sturt said:

As we sit here today, it would appear that they're counting on Kaminsky as a 3rd C more than a PF

I think he will blend with our other bigs and play either PF or C depending on who else is on the floor with him.  Don't expect him to get a ton of minutes but he could be a PF next to OO or CC or a C next to JC or JJ or Mo.

[thecampster]

15 hours ago, Final_quest said:

Hmmmm…. I actually thought Frank the tank was our back up PF to start the season.  Would like to see Jalen fit in here or even as back up SF.  

OO = C/PF (in that order).

Kaminsky = C/PF (in that order).

Johnson = F  which means equally a PF/SF.

 

The uniqueness of the 3 is that they all cause serious problems for the other team, but not the same problems. Johnsons ability to score at all 3 levels and put the ball on the floor is a cover nightmare.  His aggressiveness is a greater concern but right now he's the best big we have on the roster at putting the ball on the floor. Let that sink in. He is the one guy right now that you can count on to go get a basket if you need it. He just does it quietly.

Kaminsky's size poses very similar issues as Gallo's.  His length on the defensive end is very useful. His deer on roller skates defense at the perimeter is the issue.  But Hawks fans are going to see a Gallo like player with better rim protection, better help protection and a very attuned sense of the floor and spacing. Kaminsky is to team offense what Gallo was to ISO scoring. He has real value in this area.

OO's inability to put the ball on the floor and his propensity for making mistakes when setting picks/ catching while moving are his only real liabilities if and only if he can develop the reliable outside shot. But OO is the literal interpretation of creating offense out of defense and he can't be ignored in the conversation.

[sturt]

I like the vision you guys are laying out... in theory, at least.

I just don't think they think Jalen's best defense is going to be on the perimeter. When you get him on your own side of the floor, sure, you can position him wherever you wanna position him, but it's on defense that the position assignment actually matters. He can defend wings. You might be more effective, though, to limit that to some specific opposing wings.

Going to guess-timate Jalen plays PF 75-85% of the time he's on the floor.

And I'm skeptical that Frank's best defense is as a C any more than Gallo's was. Sometimes you had to let Gallo give you some minutes there... sometimes... ask Embiid... it even worked out really well for us. But you might be more effective to limit that to some specific opposing Cs. Then again, the same can be said about choosing to match him up only against certain PFs. He's a unicorn on this one, but not in a positive way. He doesn't have the girth you want to guard better Cs on the block, and yet his foot speed and length work against him if the opposing PF is a legit stretch 4.

Offensively, Frank's more wonky than Gallo. From what I've seen, he gets some points from the arc just like Gallo, and he's a decent PnR option, but he doesn't have Gallo's back-to-the-basket game. He's more of an opportunistic scorer than he is someone you actually toss the ball to, and let him operate.

Having said all that... unlike Jalen, he's not supposed to get a lot of minutes anyway, so it could work out. Maybe being at the end of the bench allows him to play more games overall, limiting his injury risk.

And Godzilla? Again, in theory, based on what we were told the projections were pre-draft, he can be a unicorn in a totally positive way. And he can guard both Cs and PFs, and even better, is a switch asset, so you don't even worry about who he's defending so much. He's not yet proven to be so effective that he's been an all-defense consideration, but he's also only now (*knocks on wood*) getting to start a season full-go. If players were stocks, he's arguably the best candidate to see his stock price double in one season.

Because OO is so switchable, I would agree that, when Kaminsky gets minutes, it makes sense that it would be at times OO is on the floor as well... but which one is taking the other team's PF and which one is taking the other team's C would vary from opponent to opponent.

[macdaddy]

I've got not much hope for Kaminsky and Harkless but i'd love to be wrong.   The fact that we didn't replace Gallo signals to me that it may be Jalen's time to at least show if he belongs.   If JJ doesn't show out we're going to be PF shopping at the deadline.   

[Final_quest]

Honestly, we won't know how serious they are about working Jalen into the rotation until the season starts.  I don't understand why people are confident that Jalen is getting in the rotation on day one.  When you don't give him garbage minutes one year, why would you assume he's the primary backup the next year?   

 A guy like Kominsky is vet min because of injury history.  When he plays he is higher value than the minimum.  Assume Jalen is not playing, Kominsky gives you what you need next to Okongwu as a stop gap solution. If/when he gets injured for the year, he's getting cut.  Just like we did with Solomon last year.  

[sturt]

43 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

I don't understand why people are confident that Jalen is getting in the rotation on day one.  When you don't give him garbage minutes one year, why would you assume he's the primary backup the next year?   

Not a definitive response here, but I think it's fair to say Nate's optimistic that Jalen will be in the rotation... FF to the 18:30 mark or so...

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=693170208469559

[Final_quest]

3 hours ago, sturt said:

Not a definitive response here, but I think it's fair to say Nate's optimistic that Jalen will be in the rotation... FF to the 18:30 mark or so...

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=693170208469559

He said he looks forward to both Jalen and Sharife earning rotation minutes.  That is coach speak that doesn’t mean very much to me.  For Sharife it meant he got cut.  

Here is a rule I hold, actual results are the best prediction of future results.  There is no history of Jalen playing, until we have history I am expecting the previous standard to be in place.  Meaning no backup role until he gets some meaningful game action.  

I do love Jalen as a prospect, I just don’t expect him to sub in for JC during our first game of the season at this point.  

[sturt]

1 hour ago, Final_quest said:

He said he looks forward to both Jalen and Sharife earning rotation minutes.  That is coach speak that doesn’t mean very much to me.  For Sharife it meant he got cut.  

Here is a rule I hold, actual results are the best prediction of future results.  There is no history of Jalen playing, until we have history I am expecting the previous standard to be in place.  Meaning no backup role until he gets some meaningful game action.  

I do love Jalen as a prospect, I just don’t expect him to sub in for JC during our first game of the season at this point.  

 

Not going to dispute that there's some coach speak in that. Some. But to be fair, at that moment, it would seem to make it's own statement about the expectations for Sharife if McM didn't say essentially the same for him.

 

The Sharife comment, imo, was more "oh-by-the-way," whereas the Jalen comment expressed not only optimism, but some reason for his optimism. (Of course, also at that moment, I don't think anyone him included would have imagined that cutting Sharife was on the radar.)

 

Think you seem to completely dismiss that there was substantive reason for Jalen not getting big league minutes last season.

Think you might also (?) be dismissing that Nate's history, contrary to popular inclinations around here, is that he has normally incorporated first rounders into his rotations in his previous stops. (I didn't study it, but someone here posted the data supporting that sometime this off-season... maybe that someone (I genuinely don't recall who) will insert him/herself here).

Why McM didn't do that until post season with OO was legitimately because he'd missed training camp and the first months of the season. (But he did do it in post season.)

Why McM didn't do that with Jalen has been exhaustively covered in multiple threads by now; but as concisely as I can put it, Jalen....

(1) came into the league with minuscule games played in 2 years,

(2) came into the league with JC and Gallo soaking up all the minutes,

(3) came into the league desiring (per Schlenk's exit interview) to play G-League to get into the flow,

(4) eventually had his own health-related absence for a few games

and

(5a) at that point that JC was hurt, Jalen wasn't ready, and (5b) at that point that Jalen may have been considered ready, he wasn't going to get any minutes in view of McM's determination to somehow someway push/pull/drag the team into, at least, the play-in round. Too many games are decided by very few points, and McM's philosophy was that the risk of inserting Jalen into a significant role that late in the year was too great. Many of us (me included) wished he might roll the dice instead. Some disrespected him for not (not me included). But it's none of our careers... it's his... and we don't live with the consequences of a bad decision like any head coach has to. I cannot not respect that.

 

I smell an avatar bet coming... perhaps even one of those multiple member avatar bets. And if I do, you know @AHF does.

[Final_quest]

I've made a similar case for why Jalen didn't play last year, there's a lot of good reasons.  Still, why not exercise a little more patience and reduce the expectation from 24 minutes a night immediately to getting an actual opportunity to earn those minutes throughout the year?  

I would make a bet that Jalen isn't the backup PF during our first game of the season, but I am really pulling for this kid.  If it happens, I want to feel good about it and not watch him play under the context of losing a bet.  I actually give it about 5-20% chance of happening so I would like my odds, but right now I would only be pleasantly surprised if it does happen.  A bet would ruin that moment.

We won like 70% of our games during a stretch with Solo starting a couple years ago.  We can win with some JAGs getting minutes at the end of our rotation.  

[AHF]

2 hours ago, Final_quest said:

I actually give it about 5-20% chance of happening so I would like my odds, but right now I would only be pleasantly surprised if it does happen.  A bet would ruin that moment.

I take the reverse view.

I'm going to be thrilled if sturt's expectation for JJ plays out.  I'll be happy to lose that bet.

If he gets sidelined and doesn't have as big a role as sturt believes, I will be disappointed to win the bet but at least get to try to come up with something fun for sturt to wear for a little while.

My wearing a silly avatar for a bit is never going to diminish my excitement at something positive developing for the Hawks.

[macdaddy]

A couple things stand out to me about some of our assumptions of Nate.

There was a ton of 'play Sharife' calls last year and folks pointing to big numbers in the g league.  Well Sharife impressed so much in the G league that he can't even get a job in the NBA.   So nothing against Rife but Nate's call on that one is looking correct right now.

Yeah Jalen didn't get any time but i'm not buying the idea that Nate will "always" play the vets.  He'll certainly chose effective vets over developing youngsters but Dieng, Solo, and Lou all ended up being garbage time vets for us last season.  

[AHF]

33 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

A couple things stand out to me about some of our assumptions of Nate.

There was a ton of 'play Sharife' calls last year and folks pointing to big numbers in the g league.  Well Sharife impressed so much in the G league that he can't even get a job in the NBA.   So nothing against Rife but Nate's call on that one is looking correct right now.

Yeah Jalen didn't get any time but i'm not buying the idea that Nate will "always" play the vets.  He'll certainly chose effective vets over developing youngsters but Dieng, Solo, and Lou all ended up being garbage time vets for us last season.  

The biggest headscratcher for me with Nate last year was  his benching of Delon Wright.  I wasn't happy about him refusing to give Jalen run (especially after Jalen look really good in the games below) but Delon's benching in favor of Lou made me bash my head against my desk.

[macdaddy]

13 minutes ago, AHF said:

The biggest headscratcher for me with Nate last year was  his benching of Delon Wright.  I wasn't happy about him refusing to give Jalen run (especially after Jalen look really good in the games below) but Delon's benching in favor of Lou made me bash my head against my desk.

Agree 100% but that's not Delon's game log i don't think?   His 'benching' was earlier but didn't even last a game i don't think because Lou got hurt or sick or something. When Nate said that Delon wasn't exactly lighting it up on the offensive end but Nate should have known that he brought what we needed.