Mo Harkless to OKC

[thecampster]

50 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

You had that queued up and ready to drop 

Mental note...took me a second to find it.

[Final_quest]

1 hour ago, sturt said:

JDay as a 3rd unit wing, acceptable.

JDay as a rotation guy, unacceptable.

 

Solomon Jones was our starter when we played out of our minds during the 2021 season, STARTER.  I think Holliday is one of the weaker links to our rotation, but he's gonna be on the court with DJM, Bogi, Okongwu, and whoever becomes the back up PF.  I actually think the second unit could see a lot of minutes with Collins on a staggered rotation. 

All that to say, we're not asking JD to do very much.  I'm not convinced the sky is falling here.  

[sturt]

25 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

I'm not convinced the sky is falling here. 

Hyperbole...

In other words, neither am I.

What I'm saying is... what I said...

  

9 hours ago, sturt said:

JHoliday is 33 years old, and in serious decline.

That's true.

Doesn't have to translate to the sky is falling.

Should however translate to "replace this guy if you possibly can... he shouldn't be in a contender's rotation."

 

Neither should Solo have been a starter in those 15 of 34 games. That we survived pretty well doesn't mean you shouldn't have wanted a better player starting. (The same could be said for Snell, btw.)

 

I continue to be amazed that this is so hard for people to acknowledge. Is it the message or the messenger?

 

[Final_quest]

Honestly @sturt I’m not convinced a dip in stats after a trade to Sacramento means you are on the decline.  We see a lot of guys playing well into their mid 30’s.  It’s the message I’m not believing.  

[Spud2nique]

3 hours ago, thecampster said:

I was wrong

See.. it’s not that hard to admit. 
 

[sturt]

2 hours ago, Final_quest said:

Honestly @sturt I’m not convinced a dip in stats after a trade to Sacramento means you are on the decline.  We see a lot of guys playing well into their mid 30’s.  It’s the message I’m not believing.  

Well, first of all, you cannot not acknowledge that he had a dip in offensive stats from 2019-20 to 2020-21. But let's grant some latitude to check that off as an effect of playing in the midst of a pandemic. That definitely happened for some players, no question.

So then... you're trying to say there was not a decline in performance if we eliminate the 25 games he played in SAC, and just look at his IND 20-21 season in comparison to his IND 21-22 season?

Did you look, or are you just repeating Jay b/c she's more likeable and has a higher IQ and a bigger house than me?

It is true that his 2021-22 IND offensive numbers were comparable to 2020-21, and that the offensive downturn mostly occurred in SAC.

But what do we find when we look at indicators of defensive performance?

Forgive me for repeating something you probably know, but DRTG is not a meaningful stat unless/until you put it in the context of the rest of the team's performance... in other words, you have to look at the overall team DRTG, and then look to see to what degree did the individual player help or hurt the overall team number.

In 2019-20, JDay was on the positive side of that equation.

That dipped in 2020-21.

That took an even more substantial dip in 2021-22.

 

How to explain the defensive drop-off over three seasons? The easy answer is age, but it's just a guess.

And circling back to offense, again examining the three season stretch, there's no way to avoid it... he's regressed overall.

 

Now, let's also acknowledge none of us are omniscient. PJ Tucker should not have had the season he had last year if we just go by trends. He should have been pretty much done and retired. So, we may look back on this exchange when all is said and done, and you'll get the last laugh. If we keep him, I hope you do get that, of course. I love crow when I'm suggesting someone is on the edge of being out of the game, especially a good guy like JDay.

That said, I'm only analyzing likelihood.

And that said, I'm having flashbacks of this same sorta conversation about Tony Snell. And on that one, I'm not eating crow. Tony's not in anyone's training camp at the moment.

 

[Final_quest]

JH will be shifting from heavy minutes to end of rotation minutes, barring injury.  He was playing 30 minutes a game in Indy.  He'll be playing the TLC role for us 15-18 minutes.  Just last year he was a prominent part of Indy's offense launching 7 threes per game. 

He is on the decline, that is par for the course for an NBA player's career.  It's also typical that a team will bridge the gap with a 33 year old veteran while allowing younger players to develop. Danilo was a featured scorer off the bench at the same age.  All JH needs to do is be a role player for 15 minutes for a season or two.  

This isn't personal, this is what I actually think.  You're not the only one who feels like their opinions are dismissed too easily.  By the way I learned through Cam that being accurate with your assessments really counts for nothing, right or wrong.

[macdaddy]

I'm just not seeing anything meaningful in his stats given he's bounced around between crummy teams and crummy coaches and tanking orgs the last couple years.

But if we're arguing that it'd be better to have Huerter well there is no argument there.

All i'll say is we all better hope and pray that J Holiday has a big bounce back because we don't have much else off the bench on the wing. 

[sturt]

JDay better be 3rd unit.

27 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

He is on the decline, that is par for the course for an NBA player's career.  It's also typical that a team will bridge the gap with a 33 year old veteran while allowing younger players to develop. Danilo was a featured scorer off the bench at the same age.  All JH needs to do is be a role player for 15 minutes for a season or two.  

Gallo was always a superior player to JDay, so somewhat naturally, more could be and was expected of him at 33. And not certain that we would find similar decline in Gallo that we find in JDay between 30-32, but also not interested to research it since no one else appears to be.

The trend line is unmistakable. You shouldn't expect JDay to even perform at last season's level defensively. Offensively, there's hope, but the trend line suggests you shouldn't be surprised if his 3pt% shrinks another percentage point or two.

We agree he's slated for about 15 minutes as things appear right now... and we disagree that that's a concern. You don't think it is. I do. And I'm seriously hoping that your first round pick who was celebrated as a top-10 worthy talent, AJ Griffin, starts getting on the floor so there's reason to believe that he can take those minutes instead. It's fine to have JDay in your 3rd unit, and maybe get PT somewhat similar to how Lou got some PT off and on... it's not fine to rely on him for a significant role.

And damn... "a season or two".... that's a scary thought b/c the implication would be that AJ proves he isn't all that good.

[sturt]

19 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

I'm just not seeing anything meaningful in his stats given he's bounced around between crummy teams and crummy coaches and tanking orgs the last couple years.

So his defensive regress is because Rick Carlisle is a bad coach. That's a better explanation than age.

*squint eye*

Okay, then.

 

My friend, even if we accept that Carlisle is a bad coach, that would explain a regress in Team DRTG.

It does not on its own explain a regress in JDay's own DRTG relative to the team DRTG.

[macdaddy]

7 minutes ago, sturt said:

JDay better be 3rd unit.

Gallo was always a superior player to JDay, so somewhat naturally, more could be and was expected of him at 33. And not certain that we would find similar decline in Gallo that we find in JDay between 30-32, but also not interested to research it since no one else appears to be.

The trend line is unmistakable. You shouldn't expect JDay to even perform at last season's level defensively. Offensively, there's hope, but the trend line suggests you shouldn't be surprised if his 3pt% shrinks another percentage point or two.

We agree he's slated for about 15 minutes as things appear right now... and we disagree that that's a concern. You don't think it is. I do. And I'm seriously hoping that your first round pick who was celebrated as a top-10 worthy talent, AJ Griffin, starts getting on the floor so there's reason to believe that he can take those minutes instead. It's fine to have JDay in your 3rd unit, and maybe get PT somewhat similar to how Lou got some PT off and on... it's not fine to rely on him for a significant role.

And damn... "a season or two".... that's a scary thought b/c the implication would be that AJ proves he isn't all that good.

Let's say the season starts with Bogi not ready to go.  Who is playing?

After the starters here are the only guys to really work in   AHholi, JHoli, JJ, OO.  So with no Bogi, Justin going to be the primary backup at 2 and 3 whether we like it or not.   At least until a rook shows something but we know how that goes.  

[macdaddy]

3 minutes ago, sturt said:

So his defensive regress is because Rick Carlisle is a bad coach. That's a better explanation than age.

*squint eye*

Okay, then.

 

My friend, even if we accept that Carlisle is a bad coach, that would explain a regress in Team DRTG.

It does not on its own explain a regress in JDay's own DRTG relative to the team DRTG.

You're putting a lot of stock in that one measure.  Check D Sabonis' DRTG as Indy went from decent to sucky and then he went to Sac.  Is he on rapid decline too?

[sturt]

1 minute ago, macdaddy said:

Let's say the season starts with Bogi not ready to go.  Who is playing?

It's an interesting but different question.

The topic we've been discussing assumes BogBog is healthy, and in fact, that everyone is healthy.

Answering it, yes, this is why the 3rd unit still matters... you have guys that go down, and you need guys like JDay in your 3rd unit if you're a contender... if you're not a contender, of course, it's fine to rely on guys like Tyrese Martin since you're developing talent anyhow.

[sturt]

10 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

You're putting a lot of stock in that one measure.  Check D Sabonis' DRTG as Indy went from decent to sucky and then he went to Sac.  Is he on rapid decline too?

My friend, I've addressed this. You'd have to also list the team DRTG... did he help or hurt the overall team DRTG... you can't just take individual DRTG as meaningful.

Let me spell it out...

It's not that JDay's DRTGs were 107, 114, and 119 in those years... that has to be given context... if we imagine the team DRTG had matched those numbers exactly each of those years, we could conclude that JDay was neither an asset nor a deficit to the team defensively... he didn't help or hurt the rating.

What matters, then, is that his numbers were 107... one point better than the team DRTG... then 114... two points worse than the team DRTG... then 119... three points worse than the team DRTG.

Further context could be attained by examining the DRTG rank of his team each of those seasons... was he a good defensive player on a bad defensive team, a bad defensive player on a good team...

Turns out he was a good defensive player on a good defensive team in 19-20 (IND ranked 6th).

Turns out he was a not-so-good defensive player on an average defensive team in 20-21 (IND ranked 13th).

Turns out he was a bad defensive player on a bad defensive team in 21-22 (IND ranked 28th).

Hope that helps.

[Spud2nique]

40 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

AHholi

[JayBirdHawk]

2 hours ago, Final_quest said:

JH will be shifting from heavy minutes to end of rotation minutes, barring injury.  He was playing 30 minutes a game in Indy.  He'll be playing the TLC role for us 15-18 minutes.  Just last year he was a prominent part of Indy's offense launching 7 threes per game. 

He is on the decline, that is par for the course for an NBA player's career.  It's also typical that a team will bridge the gap with a 33 year old veteran while allowing younger players to develop. Danilo was a featured scorer off the bench at the same age.  All JH needs to do is be a role player for 15 minutes for a season or two.  
 

Since we know Bogi will be brought along slowly, and the rest of the wing rotation are 2 rookies in Tyrese and AJ (who has been limited so far in training camp) - it's my opinion that JHoli will be the backup SF to start the season.  I see him in the 20-24 minute range.

If training camp and the Open Practice is any indication so far - he is currently the backup SF.  During Nate's in arena interview he said that he wanted the starters to play together and the 1st bench unit to play together and didn't mix-n-match them since he wanted to simulate what game day would be like. He also said we have 14 solid guys but 'we can't play 14 guys.' 

 

[macdaddy]

1 hour ago, sturt said:

It's an interesting but different question.

The topic we've been discussing assumes BogBog is healthy, and in fact, that everyone is healthy.

Answering it, yes, this is why the 3rd unit still matters... you have guys that go down, and you need guys like JDay in your 3rd unit if you're a contender... if you're not a contender, of course, it's fine to rely on guys like Tyrese Martin since you're developing talent anyhow.

I'm not really even defending him because i think our bench is a big issue.  But if Justin is 3rd Unit in your book who's the second?  that's my question.

[sturt]

4 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

it's my opinion that JHoli will be the backup starting SF to start the season.

"backup starting"

... hehe, okay... know what you mean...

 

If the season started tomorrow, I agree it's fair to say Justin (... I'll just start calling him Justin since JDay somehow seems offensive for whatever reason, and JHoli is more syllables and misses the whole point of having an abbreviated name...) is the next man up on the wing.

That said, I've never known Landry to lie or to fail to achieve a stated goal, and he did say the goal is for BogBog (... distinguished from BojBog, and less confusing than Bogi since BojBog also gets that regularly...) is to be 100% by the regular season.

 

Also notable to me at least... think it mighta been when Nate was doing the media day presser, he made a point to speak of the five starters, but added a sixth... BogBog. Not a surprise. But I like that he's explicitly thinking of BogBog in that way.

[JayBirdHawk]

1 minute ago, sturt said:

"backup starting"

... hehe, okay... know what you mean...

Ha.  fixed

[sturt]

3 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

But if Justin is 3rd Unit in your book who's the second? 

Barring a trade...

 

1 hour ago, sturt said:

We agree he's slated for about 15 minutes as things appear right now... and we disagree that that's a concern. You don't think it is. I do. And I'm seriously hoping that your first round pick who was celebrated as a top-10 worthy talent, AJ Griffin, starts getting on the floor so there's reason to believe that he can take those minutes instead. It's fine to have JDay in your 3rd unit, and maybe get PT somewhat similar to how Lou got some PT off and on... it's not fine to rely on him for a significant role.