Can we please resign Hunter?

[macdaddy]

1 hour ago, shakes said:

this is a terrible idea.     i suggest we do something radical and make the guy earn his money before giving it to him.  He hasn't done shit to show he's worth a long term deal thus far in his career.  This is his contract year, let's see how he performs with that on the line.

Stop coddling people.

I understand the sentiment but that's also how you end up like this

 

[JayBirdHawk]

1 hour ago, shakes said:

 i suggest we do something radical

There is nothing radical about it - the Hawks allowed Collins to hit RFA and he in turn got paid.  On the other hand they came to an agreement to extend Huerter early.  Nothing wrong with either approach. 

They just need to keep the lines of communication open and honest and so far, the front office has shown an affinity to do that.

From Heurter:

"Atlanta told me at the end of last year, 'It's not like we're looking to move you, but for anybody on our team, we'll listen. If a team offers us the right thing, obviously, everyone's available,' " Huerter said. "They went out and got Murray. I knew they were looking to upgrade their roster and they went out and got him. In some ways, you could kind of feel something was going to be happening. We had a lot of guards and a lot of mouths to feed and there's one ball that gets to go around

[shakes]

19 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

I understand the sentiment but that's also how you end up like this

 

hmm, its almost as if there were other factors that led to Ayton's relationship being strained with PHX.   

[AtLaS]

1 hour ago, shakes said:

this is a terrible idea.     i suggest we do something radical and make the guy earn his money before giving it to him.  He hasn't done shit to show he's worth a long term deal thus far in his career.  This is his contract year, let's see how he performs with that on the line.

Stop coddling people.

While I agree with you on general premise and in real world situations, this isn't how the NBA works.  There is a severe lack of 6'8, 225, young, two-way players that can reasonably be acquired.  For us to get someone like that we'd have to trade a major piece + picks, or overpay to sign someone from another team.  The reality is that most NBA players after their rookie deals are overpaid, except for superstars b/c of the max contract.  What is our backup plan without Hunter?  Noone is trading these players without major compensation.  We going to draft a 19 year old in the mid first who will take 3 years to develop and might be a bust?  This team is ready to compete now, we dont have that luxury.

 

There is certainly risk with signing him now.  There is an even greater risk if we don't, IMO.  His price is extremely unlikely to fall given his age, attributes, and upcoming increases in the salary cap.  If Hunter doesn't improve at all he will get 25 million per.  However, there is a very solid chance his price will increase.  If he has a breakout season (15-17ppg and 6+ rebs on near 40% 3pt) that number is going to jump MAJORLY, which would solidify the exit of a major piece of our team as we won't be able to afford everyone.  

 

[JeffS17]

The Braves have basically built a perennial contender by betting on their scouting team and extending/betting on players they pick up early in their career.  The strategy always comes down to price and risk tolerance.  We took a flyer on JC and ended up in a pretty good spot, but Hunter is the prototypical two-way guy that I can see teams throwing a big bag at.  Herro just got $32M/year, so think about how much better you think Herro is than Dre and imagine what he might command if he has a solid season. 

It's pretty rare for an extension to go completely sour barring injuries.  

[JayBirdHawk]

Other players eligible to sign extensions:

 

 

 

[AHF]

13 hours ago, JTB said:

I’ll gladly take it cause I want Hunter to be that damn good  and have a breakout season but I am worried about his consistency.

I’m actually not at all worried about the Trae/Murray/Collins fit…TO ME Hunter is the one guy in the starting 5 that can easily make us a 55+ win team or 43-45 win team. His role is just that important in my opinion.

 

I’m hopeful about Hunter but I’m definitely not over confident that he’s just going to easily not be the same player this upcoming season.

I do love the fact that he has shown new skills this pre-season that give hope that this season will be transformative for him.  That is the jump we need from him.  He hasn't shown that in the past for more than a couple weeks of play over 3 years but he was injured on and off that entire time without a single healthy offseason.  (Which is an element of the risk with him.)  But between the way he finished the year, the work he showed over the summer, and the little we have seen of him so far things look very encouraging.

[JayBirdHawk]

[Peoriabird]

Ok schlenk and the rest of owmership...Don't listen to Brad Roland and the rest of the fools that don't know Dre's true value on the open market. If Dre's agent is willing to take $20 mil per season, this should be a no Brainer because his cost will be $10 more after this season. Don't be stupid about this.

[bleachkit]

3 hours ago, Peoriabird said:

Ok schlenk and the rest of owmership...Don't listen to Brad Roland and the rest of the fools that don't know Dre's true value on the open market. If Dre's agent is willing to take $20 mil per season, this should be a no Brainer because his cost will be $10 more after this season. Don't be stupid about this.

Dre will get 30 per if he makes it to free agency? I will gladly take the under on that.

[HawkingAwesome]

i'd rather the hawks re-sign him he's looking pretty good

[AHF]

I still think the JC scenario is very much in play for Hunter.  JC wanted significantly more than the Hawks were offering.  The Hawks made a solid offer, JC played out the season, and the Hawks let him hit the market after offering him their max number with the option to match if he signed elsewhere.  I don't think the Hawks will let Hunter go if he plays well so whether this plays out like Huerter (the two sides reach a number they can each live with today) or JC (the two sides are too far apart but the Hawks have no intention to let him walk) I'm not real concerned about his long-term future.

The toughest scenario would be one where he shows some significant improvements but then either regresses or gets hurt so that he doesn't end up delivering a big value on the overall season but he showed enough that some other team is willing to gamble on that being his new, higher baseline.  Like if he repeated last year (hurt and pretty blah regular season and looks better in the post-season) that would be really tough if another team was willing to gamble on him.

[Peoriabird]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

 if another team was willing to gamble on him.

Duh! Other teams aren't cheap like the Hawks and have a better fan base.  Hunter is already ranked higher than JC and Capela in many player ranking polls but some teams always have to pay at the top of a player's value. Thank God for the braves.

[NBASupes]

2 hours ago, AHF said:

I still think the JC scenario is very much in play for Hunter.  JC wanted significantly more than the Hawks were offering.  The Hawks made a solid offer, JC played out the season, and the Hawks let him hit the market after offering him their max number with the option to match if he signed elsewhere.  I don't think the Hawks will let Hunter go if he plays well so whether this plays out like Huerter (the two sides reach a number they can each live with today) or JC (the two sides are too far apart but the Hawks have no intention to let him walk) I'm not real concerned about his long-term future.

The toughest scenario would be one where he shows some significant improvements but then either regresses or gets hurt so that he doesn't end up delivering a big value on the overall season but he showed enough that some other team is willing to gamble on that being his new, higher baseline.  Like if he repeated last year (hurt and pretty blah regular season and looks better in the post-season) that would be really tough if another team was willing to gamble on him.

That would be a terrible decision. 

JC doesn't fit the prototype teams need right now, Hunter does. Even PHX realized this with Mikal Bridges.

[AHF]

1 hour ago, NBASupes said:

That would be a terrible decision. 

JC doesn't fit the prototype teams need right now, Hunter does. Even PHX realized this with Mikal Bridges.

Can you explain this?

I just said that Atlanta will have a number they are comfortable signing now which would mean a likely resign ala Huerter or they won't and will let him become a RFA like with JC. 

I'm not sure what your point is. 

• Are you saying that if Hunter demands a higher number than Atlanta thinks he deserves (say $120M) the Hawks should give it to him to avoid RFA because some team will reach for him inevitably?
• Are you saying that Hunter will compromise and take less now than he will next offseason regardless of whether he is hurt or struggles this year such that signing him now is the only opportunity to get a reasonable contract? 
• Something else?

I'm just not following the logic here.  I don't think many people would be upset to see the Hawks give Hunter 4/$90M (and many would be thrilled) but the rumors are he wants significantly more than Bridges.  Bear in mind Bridges has 24.9 career Win Shares and Hunter has 2.9 career Win Shares, roughly 10% of Bridges' production.  Bridges has also never missed a regular season game and so represents an absurdly low health risk.

Bridges to me did not maximize his contract at all.  If Hunter is offering a big discount in a similar fashion to what Bridges did then sign him up.  Hunter in contrast, however, is rumored to be asking to be paid as if he has already broken out when he hasn't yet.

Seems to me this is all about what Hunter is demanding and where the Hawks see his value.

[JeffS17]

17 minutes ago, AHF said:

Seems to me this is all about what Hunter is demanding and where the Hawks see his value.

If that wasn't the case he'd already be extended lol

[AHF]

24 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

If that wasn't the case he'd already be extended lol

Right but some people seem to think if we don't sign him right now it is a huge mistake when that all depends on what he is asking for and how reasonable that number is.  If he is asking for 4 years and $60M and we don't sign him now then I'm on board with that being a really bad gamble on our part.  If he wants $100M after 3 years of subpar play and the Hawks want to hold the line at $90M then I'm not going to bash them for it.  If he wants $120M and the Hawks are considering giving him that without having him prove himself this year then I'm seriously not on board with that.  Hunter has been a way below average starting SF over 3 years.  He has the potential to be MUCH, MUCH better than that but it is still potential.  It makes sense to sign him for significantly less than we project for his performance but not to pay him as if he has broken out when he hasn't done that yet.

(As an aside, what the Braves are doing is very different from this situation given the proximity to FA of the players, the difference between market value and contract, and the type and terms of contracts that can be offered due to the very different MLB and the NBA CBAs.)

[Peoriabird]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

 I don't think many people would be upset to see the Hawks give Hunter 4/$90M (and many would be thrilled) but the rumors are he wants significantly more than Bridges.   Hunter in contrast, however, is rumored to be asking to be paid as if he has already broken out when he hasn't yet.  Seems to me this is all about what Hunter is demanding and where the Hawks see his value.

Where are these rumors coming from???  This is what one of the beat writers wrote in July

Wes Morton: It seems that both sides are reportedly working towards an agreement, even if the sides are far apart at the moment. There is plenty of time to negotiate, however, and I think a deal can get done by the October deadline. With the exception of John Collins, this Hawks regime has generally found ways to extend their fourth year players before restricted free agency. I could see a Kevin Huerter-like deal for maybe 4 years and $64-70 million total.

Are our beat writers this uninformed???

[JayBirdHawk]

4 hours ago, Peoriabird said:

Where are these rumors coming from???  This is what one of the beat writers wrote in July

Wes Morton: It seems that both sides are reportedly working towards an agreement, even if the sides are far apart at the moment. There is plenty of time to negotiate, however, and I think a deal can get done by the October deadline. With the exception of John Collins, this Hawks regime has generally found ways to extend their fourth year players before restricted free agency. I could see a Kevin Huerter-like deal for maybe 4 years and $64-70 million total.

Are our beat writers this uninformed???

There is a rumor that they are $20 million apart.

[AHF]

4 hours ago, Peoriabird said:

Where are these rumors coming from???  This is what one of the beat writers wrote in July

Wes Morton: It seems that both sides are reportedly working towards an agreement, even if the sides are far apart at the moment. There is plenty of time to negotiate, however, and I think a deal can get done by the October deadline. With the exception of John Collins, this Hawks regime has generally found ways to extend their fourth year players before restricted free agency. I could see a Kevin Huerter-like deal for maybe 4 years and $64-70 million total.

Are our beat writers this uninformed???

Want to bet whether Hunter is willing to take $70M or less?  I’m taking more.