The 3-point Conundrum

[JayBirdHawk]

These make me want to cry, all these misses:

Bogi (0-10)

Video and Shotcharts | Stats | NBA.com

AJ: (1-8)

Video and Shotcharts | Stats | NBA.com

AHol: (1-5)

Video and Shotcharts | Stats | NBA.com

Trae: (0-4)

Video and Shotcharts | Stats | NBA.com

JHol: (1-3)

Video and Shotcharts | Stats | NBA.com

Culver: (0-2)

Video and Shotcharts | Stats | NBA.com

OO: (0-1)

Video and Shotcharts | Stats | NBA.com

 

JJ and Vit went 3-3

Video and Shotcharts | Stats | NBA.com

Video and Shotcharts | Stats | NBA.com

 

[macdaddy]

That's got to be one of the worst shooting performances ever.   

[REHawksFan]

36 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

After 25 games from 3:

Trae - 28.9% (7.2 attempts)

DJ - 36.6% (5.8 attempts)

Hunter - 35.4% (3.8 attempts)

JC - 21.9% (3.3 attempts)

AJ - 35.5% (4.4 attempts)

OO - 0% (3 total attempts)

Bogi - 23.1%  (8.7 attempts, 26 total attempts in 3 games)

JJ - 22.6% (1.3 attempts, 31 total attempts)

JHol - 35.2% (3.7 attempts)

AHol - 42.6% (1.6 attempts)

Vit - 35.7% (14 total attempts)

Culver - 11.1% (9 total attempts)

Kaminsky - 50% (6 total attempts)

I would expect Trae and Bogie to increase over the season. Don't think DJ is sustainable based on his career #s. End of the day, they don't have a Gallo or Huerter that can get hot and carry a quarter or even a half on occasion to add to Trae and Bogie.  Maybe AJ can be that guy eventually, but as a rookie, you fully expect the ups and downs.   

[AtLaS]

Murray being our best 3pt shooter so far this season is a travesty.  We are lucky to still have a winning record considering that.  

At least we have potential upside if our guys can start making threes.  

[Alf]

Pitiful last night.Bad thing is a lot of the misses were from damn good looks.

This isn't the days of Pistol Pete,you have to be dynamite from 3 if want to win titles.If we don't get better from behind the arc,won't win a damn thing.

Make em practice 3's all damn day today.

[macdaddy]

We should be a lot better from 3 than we are but we still need to face the facts that we aren't a good 3 point shooting team even if guys are hitting them close to their average.  

Bogi is our best shooter with a career 38%.  There are 60 qualified guys in the NBA shooting better than that.   That should be 2 per team and we've got none.  And these are just among qualified leaders.

None of our guys shot better than 38% last season.   (well except Kev).  

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

[AHF]

18 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

After 25 games from 3:

Trae - 28.9% (7.2 attempts)

DJ - 36.6% (5.8 attempts)

Hunter - 35.4% (3.8 attempts)

JC - 21.9% (3.3 attempts)

AJ - 35.5% (4.4 attempts)

OO - 0% (3 total attempts)

Bogi - 23.1%  (8.7 attempts, 26 total attempts in 3 games)

JJ - 22.6% (1.3 attempts, 31 total attempts)

JHol - 35.2% (3.7 attempts)

AHol - 42.6% (1.6 attempts)

Vit - 35.7% (14 total attempts)

Culver - 11.1% (9 total attempts)

Kaminsky - 50% (6 total attempts)

 

Does anyone have the quality of shot data for these?

[REHawksFan]

4 hours ago, AHF said:

 

Does anyone have the quality of shot data for these?

Hope this works:

Trae:  https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1629027/shots-dash

AJ:  https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1631100/shots-dash

Dre:  https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1629631/shots-dash

DJM:  https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1627749/shots-dash

JC:  https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1628381/shots-dash

JJ:  https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1630552/shots-dash

JH:  https://www.nba.com/stats/player/203200/shots-dash

AH:  https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1628988/shots-dash

 

 

[AHF]

2 hours ago, REHawksFan said:

Hope this works:

Trae:  https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1629027/shots-dash

AJ:  https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1631100/shots-dash

Dre:  https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1629631/shots-dash

DJM:  https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1627749/shots-dash

JC:  https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1628381/shots-dash

JJ:  https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1630552/shots-dash

JH:  https://www.nba.com/stats/player/203200/shots-dash

AH:  https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1628988/shots-dash

 

 

Drops in efg% on wide open perimeter shots:

Trae: 61.1% to 55.3% (-5.8%)

Dre:  61.2% to 56.4% (-6.8%)

JC: 57.8% to 38.8% (-19%)

 

Not great from our top returning scorers (minus Bogi who is SSS) given that changes in scheme / usage really shouldn't affect wide open shots much.  YOY numbers get worse (from my glance at them) as they move into more tightly covered scenarios for most players.

[REHawksFan]

28 minutes ago, AHF said:

Drops in efg% on wide open perimeter shots:

Trae: 61.1% to 55.3% (-5.8%)

Dre:  61.2% to 56.4% (-6.8%)

JC: 57.8% to 38.8% (-19%)

 

Not great from our top returning scorers (minus Bogi who is SSS) given that changes in scheme / usage really shouldn't affect wide open shots much.  YOY numbers get worse (from my glance at them) as they move into more tightly covered scenarios for most players.

Yeah. It's no bueno no matter how you slice it.  I know you are big on regressing to the mean but how long you gonna wait until you get concerned about all our guys shooting? We're 25 games in at this point.   

I'm still of the mindset that the offensive system is so offensive that these guys aren't in any kind of rhythm and that's really hurting them.  That and spacing.  I get being in a slump, and maybe that's part of it, but when basically the whole team is in a slump for 30% of the season, I start to question things like the system, fit, coaching, etc...

Edited December 9, 2022 by REHawksFan

[JayBirdHawk]

47 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

Yeah. It's no bueno no matter how you slice it.  I know you are big on regressing to the mean but how long you gonna wait until you get concerned about all our guys shooting? We're 25 games in at this point.   

I'm still of the mindset that the offensive system is so offensive that these guys aren't in any kind of rhythm and that's really hurting them.  That and spacing.  I get being in a slump, and maybe that's part of it, but when basically the whole team is in a slump for 30% of the season, I start to question things like the system, fit, coaching, etc...

It's a team wide shooting issue. Hawks lost their long time shooting coach in Chris Jent. Who has been his replacement? Nate saying he doesn't care what analytics say about 3s may have had an adverse effect on whatever they worked on in training camp and it's carrying over.

[REHawksFan]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

It's a team wide shooting issue. Hawks lost their long time shooting coach in Chris Jent. Who has been his replacement? Nate saying he doesn't care what analytics say about 3s may have had an adverse effect on whatever they worked on in training camp and it's carrying over.

        

 

[AHF]

3 hours ago, REHawksFan said:

Yeah. It's no bueno no matter how you slice it.  I know you are big on regressing to the mean but how long you gonna wait until you get concerned about all our guys shooting? We're 25 games in at this point.   

I'm still of the mindset that the offensive system is so offensive that these guys aren't in any kind of rhythm and that's really hurting them.  That and spacing.  I get being in a slump, and maybe that's part of it, but when basically the whole team is in a slump for 30% of the season, I start to question things like the system, fit, coaching, etc...

For Trae this is well worn territory.  If you look at his career splits, he is much better from January on than he is from October - December.  So I'm not throwing the towel in on him.  It is really his 3pt shooting that is the big issue right now as his FT% is fine and his 2pt% has been much better recently.  For Trae, literally his 3 worst months historically are October, November and December (.556% TS%, .555% TS%, and .566% TS%).  January, February, March, April and May are .581% TS% to .626% TS% with most hovering a bit shy of a splendid .600% TS%. Right now he is sitting at .539% TS% so he is way below his last few seasons but it isn't nearly as bad if you contextualize for his normal slump to begin every year.  So I put myself at a low to mid level of concern.

For JC, I am at absolute high concern because all we have seen since his finger injury is terrible perimeter shooting.  If he can't shoot from the perimeter anymore, he doesn't fit even with his improved defense.  You can't have CC and someone next to him who isn't a strong or at least competent perimeter shooter.  I'm very concerned here.

For our collective team's perimeter shooting, it concerns me because it is something that has cascading effects for the entire offense if defenses aren't going to respect your 3pt shooting.  In addition to 3's being a very important part of modern offenses, respect for that 3 opens up the floor for other important elements of the offense.  Bogi coming back is good.  I expect him to be rough for a while and then hit his stride based on previous injury recovery patterns.  Despite AJ's rough numbers in several recent starts, I have no concern about his perimeter shooting.  He will rebound and finish the year at a good % and I've become reasonably confident that Nate is going to stick with him in a meaningful rotation role.  (Please don't betray my trust, Nate!)

The loss of Huerter has been painful especially with injuries to our wings (and we all know injuries to our wings was very predictable).  As we've said, that was about $$ for Ressler so it hurts to give up basketball talent for $$.

[JayBirdHawk]

Not good.  Need more attempts from Hunter.

 

 

[macdaddy]

AJ is missing open 3s that mostly only rookies miss.   But with his stroke those are going to be money very soon.  We need Trae and JC to get back to their normal ways and start finding Bogi and AJ every chance we get.   That should be enough.  

[JayBirdHawk]

Nate playing them like traditional stretch 4s. They're not!

 

 

[Diesel]

Stat also shows that Dejountae doesn't get to the FT line that much. 

Neither is AJ. 

[JayBirdHawk]

Stay healthy Bogi.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[JayBirdHawk]

Let's see where we are to end 2022:

Trae - 31%

DJ - 35% 

Hunter - 35.4%

JC - 22.7% 

AJ - 37.2% 

OO - 0% 

Bogi - 40.4% 

JJ - 21.4%

JHol - 34.5%

AHol - 44% 

Kaminsky - 44.4%

We are getting nothing from the PF spot.