The 3-point Conundrum

[macdaddy]

13 minutes ago, AHF said:

It is hard to say.  I think Boston took their foot off the accelerator in the second half playing with a huge lead.  It is definitely a different game if we shoot our average.  How does Boston react to us shooting much better?  Hope to see that in Game 2.

yeah that's definitely true.  don't know if we prevail in a closer game or not but Boston didn't play well at all in the second half.  Quin alluded to it saying that our offense needs to help our defense.   We missed 16 shots in the second quarter alone.  That's a lot of transition defending.  

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

[REHawksFan]

3 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

yeah that's definitely true.  don't know if we prevail in a closer game or not but Boston didn't play well at all in the second half.  Quin alluded to it saying that our offense needs to help our defense.   We missed 16 shots in the second quarter alone.  That's a lot of transition defending.  

If the Hawks shot their averages in the 1st half, they would have somewhere around 60-64 pts at the half.  Not sure how the OReb would have shaken out, but just looking at total shots in the first half and applying the season FG% for 2pt and 3pts.  There's a lot to consider with this (like transition D as mentioned), but regardless, it would have been a much closer game and would have at least made them work a little harder for the W had the Hawks just shot it like they typically do.  

Still, it's worth repeating that getting out shot from 3pt is never a recipe for success.  In that regard, we almost need to have every guy in the rotation be hot in the same game to keep up with Boston.  OR, we have to figure out how to defend them better.  Keep in mind, the celtics only made 13 3pt shots in this game.  In the regular season, they equaled or bettered that number 28 times.  So they are very capable of exploding on high volume.  

[REHawksFan]

@JayBirdHawk mentioned in one of these threads that she was surprised that Trae hadn't taken as many 3s this year as typical and it got me thinking.  Trae is a volume shooter but I was curious to what extent his % increased or decreased based on number of attempts.  After looking it up, it appears that Trae is more effective when he attempts more shots.  See below.  

This is 5 seasons worth of data.  When Trae attempts more shots, his FG% increases.  This is true across 2pt and 3pt shot attempts as well as eFG%.  I'm guessing he needs to get into a rhythm to be more comfortable.  Of course, some of this may also be that when he's hot, he's going to keep shooting.  Which came first, the chicken or the egg argument.  

Here's something else I looked up that I found very interesting:

Trae has played 353 regular season games in 5 seasons.  Here's a breakdown of his 3pt shooting by attempts:

• 1-5 attempts:  111 games / 436 total attempts / 128 makes / 29.4%
• 6-9 attempts:  168 games / 1,225 total attempts / 394 makes / 32.2%
• 10+ attempts:  74 games / 856 total attempts / 362 makes / 42.3%

In 74 games attempting 10 or more 3pt shots, his 3pt% is 42.3%. 

And again, I understand that some of this is the idea that when he's hot, he's going to keep shooting and keep racking up attempts and when he's off, he won't.  So that matters.  BUT, it's hard for me to totally dismiss the idea that he's a rhythm shooter that needs attempts to get going.  Shoot your way out of a slump so to speak.  

Thoughts?  

[Diesel]

11 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

@JayBirdHawk mentioned in one of these threads that she was surprised that Trae hadn't taken as many 3s this year as typical and it got me thinking.  Trae is a volume shooter but I was curious to what extent his % increased or decreased based on number of attempts.  After looking it up, it appears that Trae is more effective when he attempts more shots.  See below.  

This is 5 seasons worth of data.  When Trae attempts more shots, his FG% increases.  This is true across 2pt and 3pt shot attempts as well as eFG%.  I'm guessing he needs to get into a rhythm to be more comfortable.  Of course, some of this may also be that when he's hot, he's going to keep shooting.  Which came first, the chicken or the egg argument.  

Here's something else I looked up that I found very interesting:

Trae has played 353 regular season games in 5 seasons.  Here's a breakdown of his 3pt shooting by attempts:

• 1-5 attempts:  111 games / 436 total attempts / 128 makes / 29.4%
• 6-9 attempts:  168 games / 1,225 total attempts / 394 makes / 32.2%
• 10+ attempts:  74 games / 856 total attempts / 362 makes / 42.3%

In 74 games attempting 10 or more 3pt shots, his 3pt% is 42.3%. 

And again, I understand that some of this is the idea that when he's hot, he's going to keep shooting and keep racking up attempts and when he's off, he won't.  So that matters.  BUT, it's hard for me to totally dismiss the idea that he's a rhythm shooter that needs attempts to get going.  Shoot your way out of a slump so to speak.  

Thoughts?  

[Final_quest]

30 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

@JayBirdHawk mentioned in one of these threads that she was surprised that Trae hadn't taken as many 3s this year as typical and it got me thinking.  Trae is a volume shooter but I was curious to what extent his % increased or decreased based on number of attempts.  After looking it up, it appears that Trae is more effective when he attempts more shots.  See below.  

This is 5 seasons worth of data.  When Trae attempts more shots, his FG% increases.  This is true across 2pt and 3pt shot attempts as well as eFG%.  I'm guessing he needs to get into a rhythm to be more comfortable.  Of course, some of this may also be that when he's hot, he's going to keep shooting.  Which came first, the chicken or the egg argument.  

Here's something else I looked up that I found very interesting:

Trae has played 353 regular season games in 5 seasons.  Here's a breakdown of his 3pt shooting by attempts:

• 1-5 attempts:  111 games / 436 total attempts / 128 makes / 29.4%
• 6-9 attempts:  168 games / 1,225 total attempts / 394 makes / 32.2%
• 10+ attempts:  74 games / 856 total attempts / 362 makes / 42.3%

In 74 games attempting 10 or more 3pt shots, his 3pt% is 42.3%. 

And again, I understand that some of this is the idea that when he's hot, he's going to keep shooting and keep racking up attempts and when he's off, he won't.  So that matters.  BUT, it's hard for me to totally dismiss the idea that he's a rhythm shooter that needs attempts to get going.  Shoot your way out of a slump so to speak.  

Thoughts?  

Hard to say if this is shooting more because of getting hot, but playing with confidence will get better results.  It took him a while to settle down this year.  He never seemed to play like himself.  

[REHawksFan]

11 minutes ago, Final_quest said:

Hard to say if this is shooting more because of getting hot, but playing with confidence will get better results.  It took him a while to settle down this year.  He never seemed to play like himself.  

Unless there's some injury that we don't know about, I will forever blame Nate and his archaic offensive philosophy for Trae not playing like himself this year.  The focus on the midrange and complete disregard for the 3pt shot is idiotic and maddening.  Quin has even said he's been trying to get through to the guys that it's ok to take wide open 3pt shots.  That had been conditioned out of them.  And I think Nate beat the aggressiveness out of Trae.  He may just need that to fuel his play.  

[Final_quest]

1 minute ago, REHawksFan said:

Unless there's some injury that we don't know about, I will forever blame Nate and his archaic offensive philosophy for Trae not playing like himself this year.  The focus on the midrange and complete disregard for the 3pt shot is idiotic and maddening.  Quin has even said he's been trying to get through to the guys that it's ok to take wide open 3pt shots.  That had been conditioned out of them.  And I think Nate beat the aggressiveness out of Trae.  He may just need that to fuel his play.  

I'm willing to be patient, the alternative is ditching Trae while straining to imagine role players as stars.  Even in a down year we had a top offense.  Curious to see what Quin Snyder will come up with for next season.  

[AHF]

5 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

Unless there's some injury that we don't know about, I will forever blame Nate and his archaic offensive philosophy for Trae not playing like himself this year.  The focus on the midrange and complete disregard for the 3pt shot is idiotic and maddening.  Quin has even said he's been trying to get through to the guys that it's ok to take wide open 3pt shots.  That had been conditioned out of them.  And I think Nate beat the aggressiveness out of Trae.  He may just need that to fuel his play.  

Nate screwed the pooch on our offense this season but I don't blame him for everything.  I do think Trae legit just has had a really terrible year.  Chris Paul is a low volume guy and tends to take only good looks but even he saw his FG% drop from 46% to 41.9% before rebounding to 48.9% the next year just a couple years ago.  Guards especially tend to have some seasons that are better than others at least as far as shooting the ball so I'm hoping Trae will rebound ala Smitty's last year in Atlanta (44.4% in 1997-98 then 40.2% then 46.7% FG% with similar variance in 3pt shooting going from 33.8% to 39.8% 3pt% those last two seasons).

[REHawksFan]

12 minutes ago, AHF said:

Nate screwed the pooch on our offense this season but I don't blame him for everything.  I do think Trae legit just has had a really terrible year.  Chris Paul is a low volume guy and tends to take only good looks but even he saw his FG% drop from 46% to 41.9% before rebounding to 48.9% the next year just a couple years ago.  Guards especially tend to have some seasons that are better than others at least as far as shooting the ball so I'm hoping Trae will rebound ala Smitty's last year in Atlanta (44.4% in 1997-98 then 40.2% then 46.7% FG% with similar variance in 3pt shooting going from 33.8% to 39.8% 3pt% those last two seasons).

I also think there's something to be said for Trae needing some shot attempts to get in a rhythm.  So the more he shoots, generally speaking, the better the results.  

[JeffS17]

27 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

I also think there's something to be said for Trae needing some shot attempts to get in a rhythm.  So the more he shoots, generally speaking, the better the results.  

I just want him to take clean open looks, floaters, and layup/drive attempts when he gets by his guy.  No off balance mid range stuff or situationally bad 35 footers, and I don't really care how many shots he takes.

I'll be even happier if everyone can just make open threes.  We're getting disrespected badly out there and only DJ is taking advantage.

[macdaddy]

Looking at the last two years most used 5 man lineups, the lineup of Trae/Bogi/Kev/JC/Capela is by far the most effective.    We need a Bogi that can defend and we need Hunter that can dribble.    Maybe Murray is good enough but he doesn't have the 3 point ability we need.  he wasn't bad from 3 this year though.   It's just not his #1 thought.  

[REHawksFan]

9 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

I just want him to take clean open looks, floaters, and layup/drive attempts when he gets by his guy.  No off balance mid range stuff or situationally bad 35 footers, and I don't really care how many shots he takes.

I'll be even happier if everyone can just make open threes.  We're getting disrespected badly out there and only DJ is taking advantage.

I don't disagree with any of this.  I just try to look at the data to see what it says.  And while it's not 100% clear that more = better, it does seem to imply such.  So that's why I'm suggesting he get back to being Trae.  The guy that is aggressive with his shot, pushes the issue, and puts a ton of pressure on defenses.    

[macdaddy]

5 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

I don't disagree with any of this.  I just try to look at the data to see what it says.  And while it's not 100% clear that more = better, it does seem to imply such.  So that's why I'm suggesting he get back to being Trae.  The guy that is aggressive with his shot, pushes the issue, and puts a ton of pressure on defenses.    

I agree with you but there is a ton of pressure for him to NOT be aggressive with his shot.  Every single long bomb he misses just drives so much hate from all directions.   Despite the fact that, at least prior to this year, the 25+ footer was his most effective 3 pointer. 

[REHawksFan]

58 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

I agree with you but there is a ton of pressure for him to NOT be aggressive with his shot.  Every single long bomb he misses just drives so much hate from all directions.   Despite the fact that, at least prior to this year, the 25+ footer was his most effective 3 pointer. 

Yep.  I keep going back to what DJ said he told Trae after Game 2:  Just be yourself and play your game.  You do you and let the results be whatever they are.  

It's almost like this year we've gotten a muted version of Trae when we really need the real Trae to be successful.  We had Kevin and K'Von.  Well now we have Trae and Ice Trae.  We need Ice Trae.  

[JeffS17]

2 hours ago, macdaddy said:

I agree with you but there is a ton of pressure for him to NOT be aggressive with his shot.  Every single long bomb he misses just drives so much hate from all directions.   Despite the fact that, at least prior to this year, the 25+ footer was his most effective 3 pointer. 

I think the reason more shot attempts = better percentage is because he typically will shoot when open, aside from end of quarter heaves, end of shot clock attempts, and the occasional long bomb.  So if he's shooting more, it's because he's getting those good looks and not just make something happen when the offense stalls with a step back chuck

[TheNorthCydeRises]

4 hours ago, REHawksFan said:

@JayBirdHawk mentioned in one of these threads that she was surprised that Trae hadn't taken as many 3s this year as typical and it got me thinking.  Trae is a volume shooter but I was curious to what extent his % increased or decreased based on number of attempts.  After looking it up, it appears that Trae is more effective when he attempts more shots.  See below.  

This is 5 seasons worth of data.  When Trae attempts more shots, his FG% increases.  This is true across 2pt and 3pt shot attempts as well as eFG%.  I'm guessing he needs to get into a rhythm to be more comfortable.  Of course, some of this may also be that when he's hot, he's going to keep shooting.  Which came first, the chicken or the egg argument.  

Here's something else I looked up that I found very interesting:

Trae has played 353 regular season games in 5 seasons.  Here's a breakdown of his 3pt shooting by attempts:

• 1-5 attempts:  111 games / 436 total attempts / 128 makes / 29.4%
• 6-9 attempts:  168 games / 1,225 total attempts / 394 makes / 32.2%
• 10+ attempts:  74 games / 856 total attempts / 362 makes / 42.3%

In 74 games attempting 10 or more 3pt shots, his 3pt% is 42.3%. 

And again, I understand that some of this is the idea that when he's hot, he's going to keep shooting and keep racking up attempts and when he's off, he won't.  So that matters.  BUT, it's hard for me to totally dismiss the idea that he's a rhythm shooter that needs attempts to get going.  Shoot your way out of a slump so to speak.  

Thoughts?  

 

As I always say:

 

Shoot the ball, Trae.

[benhillboy]

8 hours ago, REHawksFan said:

@JayBirdHawk mentioned in one of these threads that she was surprised that Trae hadn't taken as many 3s this year as typical and it got me thinking.  Trae is a volume shooter but I was curious to what extent his % increased or decreased based on number of attempts.  After looking it up, it appears that Trae is more effective when he attempts more shots.  See below.  

This is 5 seasons worth of data.  When Trae attempts more shots, his FG% increases.  This is true across 2pt and 3pt shot attempts as well as eFG%.  I'm guessing he needs to get into a rhythm to be more comfortable.  Of course, some of this may also be that when he's hot, he's going to keep shooting.  Which came first, the chicken or the egg argument.  

Here's something else I looked up that I found very interesting:

Trae has played 353 regular season games in 5 seasons.  Here's a breakdown of his 3pt shooting by attempts:

• 1-5 attempts:  111 games / 436 total attempts / 128 makes / 29.4%
• 6-9 attempts:  168 games / 1,225 total attempts / 394 makes / 32.2%
• 10+ attempts:  74 games / 856 total attempts / 362 makes / 42.3%

In 74 games attempting 10 or more 3pt shots, his 3pt% is 42.3%. 

And again, I understand that some of this is the idea that when he's hot, he's going to keep shooting and keep racking up attempts and when he's off, he won't.  So that matters.  BUT, it's hard for me to totally dismiss the idea that he's a rhythm shooter that needs attempts to get going.  Shoot your way out of a slump so to speak.  

Thoughts?  

Great analysis.  Some teams are just geared to take away his preferred looks more than others.  He’s also confused about when to attempt the bait foul three and which referees will call it in this still hazy area of shot officiating.  I’m just puzzled as to why he won’t do the things necessary off ball to improve his catch and shoot and corner frequency just a little.

Edited April 21, 2023 by benhillboy

[AHF]

6 hours ago, REHawksFan said:

I don't disagree with any of this.  I just try to look at the data to see what it says.  And while it's not 100% clear that more = better, it does seem to imply such.  So that's why I'm suggesting he get back to being Trae.  The guy that is aggressive with his shot, pushes the issue, and puts a ton of pressure on defenses.    

If I actually worked with the Hawks and was going to do a deeper dive on this, I'd like to see some effort made to separate the chicken or egg issues you mentioned earlier.  Is there a big driver with quality of shot selection (example:  if a team is taking away his good looks how much does shooting more actually help)?  Does the % hit change depending on the % on the first X attempts (example: looking at his shooting % for shots after he shoots poorly early, well early, average early, etc. to try to understand whether this is truly a scenario where he is improving his % in these scenarios or whether we are seeing a correlation between more shots and better % as a product of him taking more shots when he is shooting well)?

For his career, it is definitely not a linear relationship when you look season by season and list them by number of FGA/gm:

15.5 FGA/gm 41.8% FG%, 32.4% 3pt%

17.7 FGA/gm 43.3% FG, 34.3% 3pt%

19.0 FGA/gm 42.9%, 33.5% 3pt%

20.3 FGA/gm 46.0% FG%, 38.2% 3pt%

20.8 FGA/gm 43.7% FG%, 36.1% 3pt%

[JayBirdHawk]

8 hours ago, REHawksFan said:

Unless there's some injury that we don't know about, I will forever blame Nate and his archaic offensive philosophy for Trae not playing like himself this year.  The focus on the midrange and complete disregard for the 3pt shot is idiotic and maddening.  Quin has even said he's been trying to get through to the guys that it's ok to take wide open 3pt shots.  That had been conditioned out of them.  And I think Nate beat the aggressiveness out of Trae.  He may just need that to fuel his play.  

 

7 hours ago, AHF said:

Nate screwed the pooch on our offense this season but I don't blame him for everything.  I do think Trae legit just has had a really terrible year.  

I'm gonna blame most (99.9% ) of  the 3 point struggles on Nate. I think he deemphasized the 3 in practice, game planning and scheme and in bled over into the games. The hesitancy of players to just shoot the ball with instinct made them second guess the attempt. Trae indicated the entire team is getting used to Quin wanting them to shoot when open instead of waiting for a closeout and attacking for a midrange shot.(thanks Nate). Hunter's 4th turnover in G2 was a microcosm of what he was used to doing under Nate vs what Quin wants.

Keep your eyes on Quin:

https://videos.nba.com/nba/pbp/media/2023/04/18/0042200112/290/ebf3594c-1d28-29e9-b9c8-b10ad1e3b8af_1280x720.mp4