The 3-point Conundrum

[JayBirdHawk]

Nice!

 

 

[REHawksFan]

2 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Nice!

 

 

Good! He needs to take about 7 of those bad boys a game. 

[JayBirdHawk]

2 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

Good! He needs to take about 7 of those bad boys a game. 

If only Nate would call some plays to do that.

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

 

 

[Wretch]

5 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

 

 

 

Do I need to do it? Do I have to go get Oprah? LOL... I'm not beating this horse any more.  It's been evident since the start of the season.  I think an adjustment needs to be made or if not, hopefully we can just keep hitting shots.

[JayBirdHawk]

2 minutes ago, Wretch said:

Do I need to do it? Do I have to go get Oprah? LOL... I'm not beating this horse any more.  It's been evident since the start of the season.  I think an adjustment needs to be made or if not, hopefully we can just keep hitting shots.

Go for it! I'm ready. 

[Final_quest]

16 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

 

 

 

I really think Nate is the next domino to fall apart from minor roster tweaks.  He plays to not lose vs schemes to win.  

[Wretch]

46 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Go for it! I'm ready. 

[JayBirdHawk]

 

[macdaddy]

16 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

I'm not buying it.    I certainly think you have to be a good 3 point shooting team to contend but Hawks w/o Bogi are not a good 3 point shooting team so it's a good thing that we aren't jacking a bunch of them.   If we were everyone would scream because we shoot so many but make so few.  

Trae and Justin and AJ are the only confident 3 point shooters.  Trae's been bad and cut down his attempts, Justin been on the bench, AJ is a rookie with limited minutes.    Hunter, Murray, JC, AH, JJ are open shooters only.   

AJ is at 38%.  Everyone else at 35% or worse.  Do we really want them shooting more threes?

[AHF]

1 hour ago, macdaddy said:

I'm not buying it.    I certainly think you have to be a good 3 point shooting team to contend but Hawks w/o Bogi are not a good 3 point shooting team so it's a good thing that we aren't jacking a bunch of them.   If we were everyone would scream because we shoot so many but make so few.  

Trae and Justin and AJ are the only confident 3 point shooters.  Trae's been bad and cut down his attempts, Justin been on the bench, AJ is a rookie with limited minutes.    Hunter, Murray, JC, AH, JJ are open shooters only.   

AJ is at 38%.  Everyone else at 35% or worse.  Do we really want them shooting more threes?

The issue is really whether we can be successful like that or if we need to make a move if our current roster won't support us being anything more than bottom of the barrel.  Agree with you that our current roster would be worse if we were trying to be #1 in 3ptA.

[JeffS17]

1 hour ago, macdaddy said:

I'm not buying it.    I certainly think you have to be a good 3 point shooting team to contend but Hawks w/o Bogi are not a good 3 point shooting team so it's a good thing that we aren't jacking a bunch of them.   If we were everyone would scream because we shoot so many but make so few.  

Trae and Justin and AJ are the only confident 3 point shooters.  Trae's been bad and cut down his attempts, Justin been on the bench, AJ is a rookie with limited minutes.    Hunter, Murray, JC, AH, JJ are open shooters only.   

AJ is at 38%.  Everyone else at 35% or worse.  Do we really want them shooting more threes?

Guys like Hunter and JC and DJ can be 40% shooters from three if they get a lot of open looks.  The issue is scheme more than personnel imo... not every team can be built like golden state or the jazz teams of the past few years.

[AHF]

8 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

Guys like Hunter and JC and DJ can be 40% shooters from three if they get a lot of open looks.  The issue is scheme more than personnel imo... not every team can be built like golden state or the jazz teams of the past few years.

Hunter and JC can be (assuming JC's finger hasn't crippled his perimeter shooting).  I don't think DJ can be a 40% shooter regardless.  He just isn't that good of a jump shooter.

[macdaddy]

6 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

Guys like Hunter and JC and DJ can be 40% shooters from three if they get a lot of open looks.  The issue is scheme more than personnel imo... not every team can be built like golden state or the jazz teams of the past few years.

None of these guys are even sniffing 40% for their career.  JC is closest and has recent success but that's on 3 shots a game.

Combined these guys are probably 34% shooters from 3.

We could trade AHoliday/Kaminsky to OKC for Muscala

and trade Justin Holiday to Nets for Patty Mills.

That might bolster our bench shooting a bit although both those guys are on the older side. 

[JeffS17]

14 minutes ago, AHF said:

Hunter and JC can be (assuming JC's finger hasn't crippled his perimeter shooting).  I don't think DJ can be a 40% shooter regardless.  He just isn't that good of a jump shooter.

Maybe not for DJ but he's already league average this year and I can see that going up a couple % points if he has better shot selection and more open looks.  He'll never be lights out though I agree with that.  Right now Trae and DJ do not have the best discipline and it's partly because they cannot afford to be disciplined with their shot selection because there's no sets, plays, etc. to get them great looks -- just go self-create and hope for the best

[AHF]

3 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

None of these guys are even sniffing 40% for their career.  JC is closest and has recent success but that's on 3 shots a game.

Combined these guys are probably 34% shooters from 3.

We could trade AHoliday/Kaminsky to OKC for Muscala

and trade Justin Holiday to Nets for Patty Mills.

That might bolster our bench shooting a bit although both those guys are on the older side. 

DJ is terrible for his career.  I have a hard time being confident he can hit any number higher than what I consider his baseline of 34%.  (I.e., he should normally be something like 34% +/- 2%).

40% is something JC has achieved multiple seasons so that is very possible.  I'd peg his baseline at 38% (based on pre-finger consistency).  

38% is Hunter's best but I consider that close enough to 40% if he could sustain it.  That is a career high for him, though, that hasn't been repeated.  I'd peg his baseline at 36% right now.

[macdaddy]

20 minutes ago, AHF said:

DJ is terrible for his career.  I have a hard time being confident he can hit any number higher than what I consider his baseline of 34%.  (I.e., he should normally be something like 34% +/- 2%).

40% is something JC has achieved multiple seasons so that is very possible.  I'd peg his baseline at 38% (based on pre-finger consistency).  

38% is Hunter's best but I consider that close enough to 40% if he could sustain it.  That is a career high for him, though, that hasn't been repeated.  I'd peg his baseline at 36% right now.

And JC is 40% at 3 attempts a game because he only shoots open 3s.  Even if you could engineer more open looks there's a big difference between shooting 40% on low volume vs. 6-7 attempts.  As soon as he starts hitting them at the higher volume you'll see the open looks vanish.

[AHF]

20 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

And JC is 40% at 3 attempts a game because he only shoots open 3s.  Even if you could engineer more open looks there's a big difference between shooting 40% on low volume vs. 6-7 attempts.  As soon as he starts hitting them at the higher volume you'll see the open looks vanish.

I don't put JC down as a high volume guy.  He is someone who will take the open looks and if he pulls  his defender outside the 3pt arc that gives Trae and co great room to operate inside.  I just think JC is the one guy who is proven he an sustain a high % with those 3-4 open looks per game.

[JayBirdHawk]

After 25 games from 3:

Trae - 28.9% (7.2 attempts)

DJ - 36.6% (5.8 attempts)

Hunter - 35.4% (3.8 attempts)

JC - 21.9% (3.3 attempts)

AJ - 35.5% (4.4 attempts)

OO - 0% (3 total attempts)

Bogi - 23.1%  (8.7 attempts, 26 total attempts in 3 games)

JJ - 22.6% (1.3 attempts, 31 total attempts)

JHol - 35.2% (3.7 attempts)

AHol - 42.6% (1.6 attempts)

Vit - 35.7% (14 total attempts)

Culver - 11.1% (9 total attempts)

Kaminsky - 50% (6 total attempts)