Play-in implications for the draft lottery

[Guest]

No, this has nothing to do with the draft lottery I was eligible for in 1972 during the Vietnam War era! 
I was #39 in the draft and all those under #157 that year were bound for the jungles.  Fortunately, I did not have to go fight in that crummy war.  Kudos to those who did and served honorably.

Anyway... I was wondering what all the draft lottery permutations were for those teams who wind up in the play-ins, so I looked it up (in case anyone else was curious and didn't know).

IF the Hawks finish the regular season in 7th or 8th, AND lose both play-in games, then they will be in the draft lottery, regardless of finishing 7th or 8th to begin with.  If a team finishes the regular season in 9th or 10th place, and wins a play-in game, then they are not in the draft lottery, regardless of finishing 9th or 10th to begin with. 

The Hawks have little chance of finishing above or below the play-in, IMHO.  So, assuming such, then the question remains, do we hope to make a nice run in the play-offs and gain some momentum for next year, or is even a poor showing in the first round, like last year against Miami, worth getting some playoff experience, versus being in the lottery with a very, very slim chance to move up and get a top four pick.  
(P.S. I edited my original post to make this last part clearer.  Thanks JayBird for helping with that). 
 

[JayBirdHawk]

8 minutes ago, LongTimeFan said:

do we not care about getting blown out in the first round

If we are in the play-offs I don't want us to get blown out.  I want a fight - it can only help the players for next season.

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

If we are in the play-offs I don't want us to get blown out.  I want a fight - it can only help the players for next season.

I definitely worded that part poorly.  I meant to ask if we'd rather avoid what could likely be a first-round blowout against Milwaukee or Boston, and just be in the lottery instead.  Or, is any play-off experience, even like what happened against Miami last year, better than the very, very slim odds of moving up in the draft lottery?

[ShooterSays]

If a 9th or 10th seeded team manages to win both of its games in the tournament it will no longer participate in the NBA Draft Lottery. Similarly, to sneak into the Draft Lotery, a 7th or 8th seeded team will need to lose both of its games in the tournament.

What if the 9th or 10th seeded teams win exactly one game? In that case, the team is still lottery-bound and its lottery odds are in a sense unaffected and are still calculated based on its regular season (72 game) winning percentage.

Similar logic applies, say, to a 7th seeded team that dropped to 8th after the play-in tournament: the picks it owns in the Draft (in the range 15-60) will still be ordered according to the regular-season record.

https://www.bulletsforever.com/2021/5/6/22422509/washington-wizards-nba-play-in-tournament-draft-consequences-explained

[Guest]

Just now, ShooterSays said:

If a 9th or 10th seeded team manages to win both of its games in the tournament it will no longer participate in the NBA Draft Lottery. Similarly, to sneak into the Draft Lotery, a 7th or 8th seeded team will need to lose both of its games in the tournament.

What if the 9th or 10th seeded teams win exactly one game? In that case, the team is still lottery-bound and its lottery odds are in a sense unaffected and are still calculated based on its regular season (72 game) winning percentage.

Similar logic applies, say, to a 7th seeded team that dropped to 8th after the play-in tournament: the picks it owns in the Draft (in the range 15-60) will still be ordered according to the regular-season record.

https://www.bulletsforever.com/2021/5/6/22422509/washington-wizards-nba-play-in-tournament-draft-consequences-explained

Yep, that's the same article I used to make my post above.  

[macdaddy]

In past years i was always for winning as much as possible.   Especially trying to be in the playoffs but this year i can see a lot of advantages to getting a higher pick and i don't like our chances against bucks or c's.

[JayBirdHawk]

3 minutes ago, LongTimeFan said:

I definitely worded that part poorly.  I meant to ask if we'd rather avoid what could likely be a first-round blowout against Milwaukee or Boston, and just be in the lottery instead.  Or, is any play-off experience, even like what happened against Miami last year, better than the very, very slim odds of moving up in the draft lottery?

I want to watch as much Hawks basketball as I can, yes, even in a frustrating season.  So give me the playoffs.

I'm hoping we have a showing like the 20072008 Hawks vs Boston, where everyone expected a sweep and we took Boston to 7 games.

[ShooterSays]

2 minutes ago, LongTimeFan said:

Yep, that's the same article I used to make my post above.  

LOL sorry posting at work and didn't read through the whole post.

I've ran a few sims on tankathon this year and had teams jumping into the top 4 with pretty much our same record. I'd rather take our chances in the lottery.

[bird_dirt]

Assuming the ongoing pattern stands, the Hawks will finish the season with a W, so will begin the play in with an L. 

What I expect to happen is for the team to end up in 8th, lose the first play in, then win the second play in, only to go on and lose in the first round and miss out on the lottery. 

What I am hoping for is we end up in 9th so we can get that first L out of the way and begin the offseason revamping with a lottery pick in our pocket. 

[Gray Mule]

Winning is why we play.  The question seems to be, are we hoping to win games or win a lottery spot?  Because we expect some players on our current roster to be moved in the off season, trading one of them for a draft pick seems to be better than going into the tank right now.

If we tank, chances are we only gain two or three spots in the draft.  I don't see this as being worth the effort.

[AHF]

If we make the playoffs, I'll root for us to win as much as possible and get good experience.

If we end up in the lottery, I'll root for us to get really, really lucky.

Either way, absent amazing lottery luck I view it all as somewhat secondary to:

• Making the right moves with the roster in the offseason
• Identifying the right systems on both sides of the court for next year (including a new approach to the 4th quarter)
• Hiring the coaches needed to implement those systems and get buy-in from the players
• Giving the players support and guidance in the offseason to help them be ready for next year

[shakes]

Literally this team's only chance of ever contending is to hit the less than 3% chance of winning the lottery so I'll definitely be rooting for that.

[Spud2nique]

On 3/31/2023 at 6:06 AM, shakes said:

Literally this team's only chance of ever contending is to hit the less than 3% chance of winning the lottery so I'll definitely be rooting for that.

Mad that Dallas sucks huh? It’s karma for you being a double agent. FAKEGM Dallas board, head there that’s the place for you.

[Gray Mule]

On 3/31/2023 at 9:06 AM, shakes said:

Literally this team's only chance of ever contending is to hit the less than 3% chance of winning the lottery so I'll definitely be rooting for that.

Nope.  That one great, super star player available only in the lottery and then only as the #1 pick is not coming to the Hawks.  Only the lowly teams get the opportunity for this pick.  Hawks don't qualify.

I know that you are a real Hawk fan and only want the best for the team.  Quin, the most desired NBA coach available, opted to come to Atlanta.  I believe that he agreed to because of the talent he could see here.  Winning cures a lot of what currently ails this Hawk team.  Hopefully, when Quin has his own staff of assistant coaches on board and he has a summer to work on stuff, we will see a different, better team next season.

 

[shakes]

48 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

Mad that Dallas sucks huh? It’s karma for you being a double agent. FAKEGM Dallas board, head there that’s the place for you.

we need to enroll you in kindergarten with the other 5 year olds.   Do we need to ask your daddy @kg01 permission or can we just send the little bus to your house?  First order of business when you arrive is nap time.  you're cranky.

[Guest]

Okay... you kids behave in the back seat or I'm going to have to reach back there and smack you! 

[shakes]

1 hour ago, LongTimeFan said:

Okay... you kids behave in the back seat or I'm going to have to reach back there and smack you! 

He started it!

[MarylandHawk]

I like our chances of fighting through the playoffs. Our biggest issue this year was playing down to teams with much worse records. There will be none of those in the play in / playoffs.  We come in as major under dogs, a role in which this trams loves. 

[MarylandHawk]

It would be crazy though if we some how missed the playoffs and won the lottery.  San Antonio would be sick. 

[shakes]

6 minutes ago, MarylandHawk said:

It would be crazy though if we some how missed the playoffs and won the lottery.  San Antonio would be sick. 

would you rather miss the playoffs and finish top 3 in the draft lottery or make the playoffs and lose 4-2 to either the Celtics or Bucks?