Play-in implications for the draft lottery

[Guest]

40 minutes ago, shakes said:

would you rather miss the playoffs and finish top 3 in the draft lottery or make the playoffs and lose 4-2 to either the Celtics or Bucks?

 

 

Finish top three in the lottery.  Easy decision for me.  

[shakes]

1 minute ago, LongTimeFan said:

Finish top three in the lottery.  Easy decision for me.  

ok how about this.  Top 3 lottery finish vs beating the Celtics/Bucks in first round and then losing in the second round?

 

I still would take the lottery finish.

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, shakes said:

ok how about this.  Top 3 lottery finish vs beating the Celtics/Bucks in first round and then losing in the second round?

 

I still would take the lottery finish.

Agreed.

[macdaddy]

12 minutes ago, shakes said:

ok how about this.  Top 3 lottery finish vs beating the Celtics/Bucks in first round and then losing in the second round?

 

I still would take the lottery finish.

The real question is would you take late lottery over winning a first round matchup?   

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

The real question is would you take late lottery over winning a first round matchup?   

Our odds of moving up in the lottery to top 3 are pretty slim, so I would rather have something like the 14th pick and a first round win then then the 12th pick and no playoff experience for our young guns.  
I'm kind of torn on hoping for no playoffs in order to have such a slim chance at a top three pick.  That's why simply rooting for the team to make the playoffs, to gain experience (even in a blow out first round loss like last year) isn't hard to do. 

[shakes]

30 minutes ago, LongTimeFan said:

Our odds of moving up in the lottery to top 3 are pretty slim, so I would rather have something like the 14th pick and a first round win then then the 12th pick and no playoff experience for our young guns.  
I'm kind of torn on hoping for no playoffs in order to have such a slim chance at a top three pick.  That's why simply rooting for the team to make the playoffs, to gain experience (even in a blow out first round loss like last year) isn't hard to do. 

It's interesting, I looked at a mock and from my perspective there's a big drop off after #11.   So there's no real difference between 12 and 16.  But, that small chance at moving to top 3 is pretty valuable.    I'd rather have that than see us get destroyed by Boston or Milwaukee.

I'm just gonna cheer for them to win, but will be happy if they lose.

[AHF]

1 hour ago, shakes said:

ok how about this.  Top 3 lottery finish vs beating the Celtics/Bucks in first round and then losing in the second round?

 

I still would take the lottery finish.

The problem with this question is that it is based on a highly, highly improbable event.  Like if you asked me whether I would like to get a promotion at work or win the megamillions lottery then I would definitely rather win $414 Million in the lottery than get a promotion.  But I am going to put my time and money towards getting the promotion rather than banking on winning the lottery.  If we miss the playoffs, we will likely have a 0.5% chance of winning the lottery i.e., 1 out of 200 chance.  The odds of getting a top 3 pick aren't much better sitting at just over 1.5%.  

So I'd pick to get a top 3 pick but we have terrible odds and not much in the way of control over that so I would be focusing on what things can be done to improve this team that are within my control if I were Landry or Quin.

[Gray Mule]

WNBA draft will be on ESPN Monday, April 10.

The Atlanta Dream have the #6 and  #8 1st round picks.

I know.  This isn't the Hawks.  It's the girls.  They play in the summer when the Hawks are off, resting up for the winter of NBA.  If you love basketball, give them a try this summer.  They might gain a new fan.

If you followed the female March madness you know there are some talented players out there and #6 & #8 should be nice additions to the Dream.

If you are one of those Squawk posters who hate WNBA, carry on.  For the remainder of you, remember Monday night on ESPN.

 

[bird_dirt]

@shakes would you rather get the third pick in the draft (not 1 or 2), or make it back to the ECF? Both pretty improbable.

I think I’d go with ECF. If Quinn is able to accomplish that with this crew of players and coaches, then I like our odds of getting to the finals in the future. 

I think Wemby is the only near guarantee superstar in the draft if he stays healthy. IDK if third pick is enough to take a team from missing the playoffs to the finals. 
 

Likewise, would you rather win the championship this year or get the first pick?

That’s a tough call. 

[shakes]

8 minutes ago, bird_dirt said:

@shakes would you rather get the third pick in the draft (not 1 or 2), or make it back to the ECF? Both pretty improbable.

I think I’d go with ECF. If Quinn is able to accomplish that with this crew of players and coaches, then I like our odds of getting to the finals in the future. 

I think Wemby is the only near guarantee superstar in the draft if he stays healthy. IDK if third pick is enough to take a team from missing the playoffs to the finals. 
 

Likewise, would you rather win the championship this year or get the first pick?

That’s a tough call. 

100% the 3rd pick over ECF.  No make that 1,000,000%.     Didn't we see that play before and making it to the ECF did literally zero for helping this team do better in future seasons.

 

#1 pick vs Championship is a harder debate, but I think I would go with Wemby and gamble on him winning several.  Plus you get the years of enjoyment watching him play for the Hawks.  I probably have a different perspective on this from the other Hawks fans since I've already experienced a dynasty as a diehard Bulls fan so the dream of winning an NBA title isn't as strong with me as with someone who's never seen their team do it.

34 minutes ago, Gray Mule said:

WNBA draft will be on ESPN Monday, April 10.

The Atlanta Dream have the #6 and  #8 1st round picks.

I know.  This isn't the Hawks.  It's the girls.  They play in the summer when the Hawks are off, resting up for the winter of NBA.  If you love basketball, give them a try this summer.  They might gain a new fan.

If you followed the female March madness you know there are some talented players out there and #6 & #8 should be nice additions to the Dream.

If you are one of those Squawk posters who hate WNBA, carry on.  For the remainder of you, remember Monday night on ESPN.

 

 

Gramps, I think it's time for your warm milk and then bedtime.  

[warcore]

6 minutes ago, shakes said:

 

Gramps, I think it's time for your warm milk and then bedtime.  

Don't tell gramps what to do. He don't GAF. 

[shakes]

2 minutes ago, warcore said:

Don't tell gramps what to do. He don't GAF. 

would never dream of it.  Just merely suggesting he move up the bedtime routine a few hours.

[sturt]

14 minutes ago, shakes said:

#1 pick vs Championship is a harder debate

Because of course, it's more important to have a chance at the next hot commodity who conceivably might be the next Yao Ming or LBJ... getting you to another championship game sometime down the road, if not two, if not three, if not several.

Or, then again... the next hot commodity who might turn out to be the next Dwight Howard.

Or, then again... who might be the next Greg Oden.

 

Over here where I sit, it's not a harder debate. Not even a little bit. Okay, maybe just a little, but very, very little.

Bird in the hand wins.

I'll take the MegaMillions jackpot, whatever that amount is. It doesn't have to be one of the biggest ever.

[sturt]

16 minutes ago, shakes said:

I've already experienced a dynasty as a diehard Bulls fan

 

Can't say I'm surprised by that new intel... but it begs the question... "What the hell?" How did you get here? No, seriously.

 

[sturt]

53 minutes ago, Gray Mule said:

If you are one of those Squawk posters who hate WNBA, carry on. 

Be happy. If that's what floats your boat and that's where you feel your time/attention and maybe money is best put, as a proud believer in free enterprise, that's all good.

 

I do not hate WNBA, just as I do not hate soccer.

I just am not among those entertained by it.

And... here's the rub... I get a little tired of being told by so many of the media types that people like me should feel entertained... and that, since I'm not, the suggestion is that people like me are either xenophobic or misogynistic.

So WNBA and FIFA, keep working hard to persuade people of the value of your product. Just don't let it get oversold as a test of individuals' morality, as some have insinuated.

 

[shakes]

1 minute ago, sturt said:

 

Can't say I'm surprised by that new intel... but it begs the question... "What the hell?" How did you get here? No, seriously.

 

my story has been chronicled before, but I'll happily give you the bullet point version...

 

- diehard Bulls fan living in Chicago from age 15-30, 1985-2000.   

-hardcore daily hooper from age 18-30.

-3 back surgeries between 97-2000 forced me to retire from the game.

-not being able to play caused depression, watching basketball made it worse.  I was the guy who would always go play after watching a game or even go out to the driveway at halftime.  Not being able to play made watching games excrutiating.

-The Bulls hitting rock bottom after MJ didn't help with the above

-pretty quickly I just gave up on the sport altogether  Didn't watch or follow NBA or college from around 2001 till Derek Rose.  Tried again with Rose and the Bulls, but Rose getting hurt brought back all my bad feelings about my injury and not being able to play.  Stopped following again.

-2016-ish I decided to give college ball another try.  The next year I discovered Trae during his freshman year at the November PK80 tourney.  It was sports love at first sight.  Watched all his games all year and decided I didn't want it to end after the season. decided to follow Trae to whatever NBA team he ended up at.

-no longer felt an allegiance to the Bulls after those 15 years away.

-Trae traded to ATL on draft night and the rest is history.

[shakes]

17 minutes ago, sturt said:

Because of course, it's more important to have a chance at the next hot commodity who conceivably might be the next Yao Ming or LBJ... getting you to another championship game sometime down the road, if not two, if not three, if not several.

Or, then again... the next hot commodity who might turn out to be the next Dwight Howard.

Or, then again... who might be the next Greg Oden.

 

Over here where I sit, it's not a harder debate. Not even a little bit. Okay, maybe just a little, but very, very little.

Bird in the hand wins.

I'll take the MegaMillions jackpot, whatever that amount is. It doesn't have to be one of the biggest ever.

yep, that's why I said in my post that the perspective of a lifelong Hawks fan who has never tasted success would be different.

your perspective is similar to my perspective on the Chicago White Sox.  5 years before they won their title I made a deal with God that if teh Sox ever won a WS title I would walk out on top and never watch anotehr inning of baseball again.  They won in 2005 and I haven't watched since.  Got my one title, I'm good.

[MarylandHawk]

10 hours ago, shakes said:

would you rather miss the playoffs and finish top 3 in the draft lottery or make the playoffs and lose 4-2 to either the Celtics or Bucks?

 

 

A

9 hours ago, shakes said:

ok how about this.  Top 3 lottery finish vs beating the Celtics/Bucks in first round and then losing in the second round?

 

I still would take the lottery finish.

Beating the Celtics yes. Hate them. 

[JayBirdHawk]

On 3/30/2023 at 4:28 PM, JayBirdHawk said:

I want to watch as much Hawks basketball as I can, yes, even in a frustrating season.  So give me the playoffs.

I'm hoping we have a showing like the 20072008 Hawks vs Boston, where everyone expected a sweep and we took Boston to 7 games.

Let's Go!

More Hawks Basketball.

[kg01]

I can't see CHI coming back tonite.  If TOR shows up, it'll be fun to watch what they do to MIA.