NBASupes' 2023-24 Impact Stats for the Atlanta Hawks

[NBASupes]

It's been awhile since I've posted it. Of course, it's back and it received negative feedback by some for not using clear mathematical formula but that's okay. 

Last time I did this as couple of years ago: 

Capela 35 wins which was a regression from 45 wins the season before

Trae 30 wins, defense and off-ball offense destroyed him that year. 

JC fell off the list with 30 wins in the previous year

No one else made a list meaning they were worth less than 25 wins which is normal. Most teams only have 3-5 of these types of players at most who truly have impact. 

Giannis, Jokic, Embiid, LeBron, Steph, Dame, Luka, and Harden previously dominated the list. This list does take into account injuries and if you are a floor raiser or roof raiser. 

Trae was listed as a roofraiser and still is. His best value is in addition to. 

For 2023-24.

Trae 30 wins - While his defense which was rated WOAT back then is now via data, the WOAT this year, his defensive play has significantly improved. The issue is obvious. He will always be terrible at the big things on defense. Trae's lack of off-ball ability on offense hurts more now in 2023 than it did then. Of course, it got exposed in the playoffs against Miami a couple of years back but it's still an issue. Trae's on-ball offensive grade is worth 60 wins. He's one of the greatest on-ball offensive players in NBA history. His defense and his off-ball weaknesses on offense are deadly. 

Muray 30 wins - Murray has been on an impact regression tour. From 40 wins, to 35 wins last year to 30 this year. I don't believe I've seen a drop offensively but defensively, his defense has gotten completely exposed under Quin and it dropped under Nate just by switching from PG to SG. Murray's defense should go up the minute he's back at PG and away from Trae. In reality, I do think he's probably still between 35-40 wins but in his current role. 30 wins. 

JJ 25 wins - New addition. JJ's entry speaks volumes about his improvement. From being nothing last year to a MIP candidate is nothing to laugh at. While I think a Smoove impact projection is fair which was a 40-win impact in his prime which is All-Star level, 

Dre, Bogi, OO, and Capela are all worth 20 wins which isn't worth listing. That's solid role player level at best. 

Capela's massive drop-off has hurt the most. We are talking about 45 wins in our ECF year. Then 30, then 35, then 35 last year again, this year, 20 wins. His drop-off has been so massive, it's f***ed up all our metrics severely. On any Trae Young team, the centers will always be the most important players. His regression is directly the reason for our regression. 

 

Best players in the NBA: 
Jokic - 60 wins
Embiid - 55 wins
Giannis - 55 wins
Steph - 55 wins
Luka - 50 wins
Tatum - 50 wins
SGA - 50 wins
KD - 50 wins
Kawhi - 50 wins

Then you got the legit All-Star tier
15 players in that mix. - 45 wins

Then you got borderline all-star impact guys
That's Hali, Brunson, Sabonis, etc. 40 wins

High-impact starters guys - 
Derrick White, Siakam, etc. 35 wins

Legit starters and studs with severe flaws: 
Trae, Zion, Kyrie, Sengun, OG, Aaron Gordon, Murray, Jrue who has regressed this year, Middleton, Brook Lopez, etc. 30 wins

Young rising stars and good starters: 
Tobi Harris, Jalen Williams, JJ, Draymond, Tyler Herro - 25 wins

20 wins is solid role players or young guys showing legit potential like Jaden Ivey or Bogi/Dre. These are common. 

 

I've been saying for years, if you want to get Trae to a higher tier, it's not on him, it's on us to get that center that makes this work and pushes Trae's grade up massively. I do believe Murray is in the top 30 if at PG. Then again, Trae is considered top 30 right now. This team just ain't that good. There ain't much to it. With the NBA getting a lot deeper than it was in the previous years, our regression has been more notable than our improvements. Capela's fall has been felt heavily this year. 

Edited February 14 by NBASupes

[AHF]

I posted this on the draft thread but I'll post it here as well just seeking clarification:

Quote

How should we interpret these win totals?  For example, are these the win totals you would expect for a team where this player is the best player on the team?  The win totals if everyone in the starting lineup is as good as this player?  Etc.  Not sure what to take from them.

As I'm reading it, the win totals are arbitrary and are more meant to designate which tier you would put each player in so that your description gives more information than the wins you post.

 

On this piece, can you share the data you are referencing?

5 hours ago, NBASupes said:

Trae 30 wins - While his defense which was rated WOAT back then is now via data, the WOAT this year

I'd like to see the numbers for this defensive rating data.

[NBASupes]

40 minutes ago, AHF said:

I posted this on the draft thread but I'll post it here as well just seeking clarification:

As I'm reading it, the win totals are arbitrary and are more meant to designate which tier you would put each player in so that your description gives more information than the wins you post.

 

On this piece, can you share the data you are referencing?

I'd like to see the numbers for this defensive rating data.

Impact stats are always center leaning. Meaning centers if they hit will have much higher impact scores than their actual value. Whereas big wings which is most in demand has the worst scores but they are highly coveted because they are needed in today's NBA.  

It's a compilation of all data, eye test, and advanced grades. The max for defense is +20, the worse is -20. The max for offense is +70. The worse is -20. 

For example, let's use Trae

Offense - 50 

Defense - -20

Overall - 30

Offense 

On ball Offense, this including passing, playmaking, ball handling, shooting, difficulty of responsibility which is always left out for Trae which is critical as he's the best in the NBA at difficulty, and a lot more. Trae gets a 60 which is generational. His really only major flaw is being floor general. The others flaws shot selection, size for dealing with double teams, focus, and decision making consistency. Still, Trae is one of the most special on ball players to play this game. 

Off ball is really bad. Because he can shoot and his on ball gravity is so elite, he will always have off ball impact but it's clear, he's not helpful off the ball. He uses the center as an off ball extension and that's lethal and it shows how smart he is which I believe he's an offensive mastermind. I consider rebounding to be a part of off ball as well. His size and lack of elite strength or stamina likely hurts this area of his game. Still - 10 in this area. 

Defense 

He used to be WOAT. He's gonna miles better and still is a -20 and is having the worst Defensive rating season in NBA history this year. His lack of size and ability to be attacked just hurts him so much. That said, he has greatly improved and he's no longer the woat. There are others in the -20 zone with him like Tyrese Haliburton so Trae is not along for stars. I am proud of Trae's improvement but he's an extreme f***ing liability on defense. He's just too small and weak and not athletic enough to make up for it but he's not a sieve anymore. He just sucks.

Trae is a difficult player but statistically, he's amazing but the eye test can be rough on him if you really know the game well. 

[Spud2nique]

7 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Impact stats are always center leaning. Meaning centers if they hit will have much higher impact scores than their actual value. Whereas big wings which is most in demand has the worst scores but they are highly coveted because they are needed in today's NBA.  

It's a compilation of all data, eye test, and advanced grades. The max for defense is +20, the worse is -20. The max for offense is +70. The worse is -20. 

For example, let's use Trae

Offense - 50 

Defense - -20

Overall - 30

Offense 

On ball Offense, this including passing, playmaking, ball handling, shooting, difficulty of responsibility which is always left out for Trae which is critical as he's the best in the NBA at difficulty, and a lot more. Trae gets a 60 which is generational. His really only major flaw is being floor general. The others flaws shot selection, size for dealing with double teams, focus, and decision making consistency. Still, Trae is one of the most special on ball players to play this game. 

Off ball is really bad. Because he can shoot and his on ball gravity is so elite, he will always have off ball impact but it's clear, he's not helpful off the ball. He uses the center as an off ball extension and that's lethal and it shows how smart he is which I believe he's an offensive mastermind. I consider rebounding to be a part of off ball as well. His size and lack of elite strength or stamina likely hurts this area of his game. Still - 10 in this area. 

Defense 

He used to be WOAT. He's gonna miles better and still is a -20 and is having the worst Defensive rating season in NBA history this year. His lack of size and ability to be attacked just hurts him so much. That said, he has greatly improved and he's no longer the woat. There are others in the -20 zone with him like Tyrese Haliburton so Trae is not along for stars. I am proud of Trae's improvement but he's an extreme f***ing liability on defense. He's just too small and weak and not athletic enough to make up for it but he's not a sieve anymore. He just sucks.

Trae is a difficult player but statistically, he's amazing but the eye test can be rough on him if you really know the game well. 

Huh? Uhhhh no, there is a lot of assumptions and wrongness in this whole thing, no.

[NBASupes]

13 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

Huh? Uhhhh no, there is a lot of assumptions and wrongness in this whole thing, no.

There is no assumptions being made outside of projections for college kids to their ceiling as a pro. Wrongness is based on your level of understanding this wonderful game. 

[AHF]

1 hour ago, NBASupes said:

He used to be WOAT. He's gonna miles better and still is a -20 and is having the worst Defensive rating season in NBA history this year. 

Can you please share the link to this data?  Looking at defensive rating on basketball reference shows he doesn't have the lowest defensive rating on our team let alone in the league or in NBA history.  It also shows that both Hunter and Trae share a 123 DRTG this season.

There are players with worse BBR DRTGs than either of them such as 3 players with 500+ minutes on the Hornets.

Looking on NBA.com and sorting players by defensive rating, I see this:

 

Recognizing that DRTG is calculated a bit differently in different places, I want to see the one that shows you WOAT numbers for Trae.

[NBASupes]

6 minutes ago, AHF said:

Can you please share the link to this data?  Looking at defensive rating on basketball reference shows he doesn't have the lowest defensive rating on our team let alone in the league or in NBA history.  It also shows that both Hunter and Trae share a 123 DRTG this season.

There are players with worse BBR DRTGs than either of them such as 3 players with 500+ minutes on the Hornets.

Looking on NBA.com and sorting players by defensive rating, I see this:

 

Recognizing that DRTG is calculated a bit differently in different places, I want to see the one that shows you WOAT numbers for Trae.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/worst-defensive-rating-in-nba-history-single-season

[hylndr11]

lol the entire team is like in the top 20

[AHF]

23 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/worst-defensive-rating-in-nba-history-single-season

That doesn't even show the source and is contradicted by data on both basketballreference and nba.com.

You can see that Garrison Mathews has a lower 124 DRTG right now.

Doug McDermott has a 124 DRTG right now.  He had a 124 DRTG last year too.

Also worth mentioning that DRTG is not comparable across teams.  Take a terrible defender and put them on a good defensive team and their DRTG will look great.  Take a great defender and put them on a bad defending team and they look terrible.  

I assume you think that is the reason Hunter has a worse DRTG than Trae on nba.com as opposed to him actually being worse.  

Using "WOAT" is both silly and objectively incorrect.  

On basketball reference, Trae currently ranks #503 out of 539 players.  Hunter ranks #509.  Look how many Hawks there are on here and tell me this is not related to team performance:

Last year Trae ranked #449 out of 539.  Hunter was #465.

WOAT is just not substantiated by the numbers.

[NBASupes]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

That doesn't even show the source and is contradicted by data on both basketballreference and nba.com.

You can see that Garrison Mathews has a lower 124 DRTG right now.

Doug McDermott has a 124 DRTG right now.  He had a 124 DRTG last year too.

Also worth mentioning that DRTG is not comparable across teams.  Take a terrible defender and put them on a good defensive team and their DRTG will look great.  Take a great defender and put them on a bad defending team and they look terrible.  

I assume you think that is the reason Hunter has a worse DRTG than Trae on nba.com as opposed to him actually being worse.  

Using "WOAT" is both silly and objectively incorrect.  

On basketball reference, Trae currently ranks #503 out of 539 players.  Hunter ranks #509.  Look how many Hawks there are on here and tell me this is not related to team performance:

Last year Trae ranked #449 out of 539.  Hunter was #465.

WOAT is just not substantiated by the numbers.

WOAT is subjective. Always has been. I don't think I've ever denied that once. 

It's always been my saying till recently, Trae is the worst defensive player I've ever seen in the and I don't believe we have ever had a defender worse than he is. He's massively improved on that end but he's still awful. 

I always found Trae to be the catalyst for elite Off ratings and terrible defensive ratings. 

Even our offensive rating being down this year has nothing to do with Trae at all. But our defensive rating being down has everything to do with Trae. Dre doesn't impact defensive ratings. Low stock impact guys like Dre and Klay impact really have to be seen. Trae gets stocks on both ends. Stocks isn't Trae issue. It's his size, lack of strength, he can be hunted especially on switches and off the ball, and he gets tired on that end but he's really done a lot  better this season compared to previous seasons but Trae can't hide his defensive issues. Data say this is Trae worst defensive year for guys who play significant minutes. But I know this is clearly his best and it's not close. 

[theheroatl]

2 hours ago, AHF said:

That doesn't even show the source and is contradicted by data on both basketballreference and nba.com.

You can see that Garrison Mathews has a lower 124 DRTG right now.

Doug McDermott has a 124 DRTG right now.  He had a 124 DRTG last year too.

Also worth mentioning that DRTG is not comparable across teams.  Take a terrible defender and put them on a good defensive team and their DRTG will look great.  Take a great defender and put them on a bad defending team and they look terrible.  

I assume you think that is the reason Hunter has a worse DRTG than Trae on nba.com as opposed to him actually being worse.  

Using "WOAT" is both silly and objectively incorrect.  

On basketball reference, Trae currently ranks #503 out of 539 players.  Hunter ranks #509.  Look how many Hawks there are on here and tell me this is not related to team performance:

Last year Trae ranked #449 out of 539.  Hunter was #465.

WOAT is just not substantiated by the numbers.

Question...

 

Does this lead credence to the scheme being completely wrong or the players...

[JeffS17]

2 hours ago, AHF said:

That doesn't even show the source and is contradicted by data on both basketballreference and nba.com.

You can see that Garrison Mathews has a lower 124 DRTG right now.

Doug McDermott has a 124 DRTG right now.  He had a 124 DRTG last year too.

Also worth mentioning that DRTG is not comparable across teams.  Take a terrible defender and put them on a good defensive team and their DRTG will look great.  Take a great defender and put them on a bad defending team and they look terrible.  

I assume you think that is the reason Hunter has a worse DRTG than Trae on nba.com as opposed to him actually being worse.  

Using "WOAT" is both silly and objectively incorrect.  

On basketball reference, Trae currently ranks #503 out of 539 players.  Hunter ranks #509.  Look how many Hawks there are on here and tell me this is not related to team performance:

Last year Trae ranked #449 out of 539.  Hunter was #465.

WOAT is just not substantiated by the numbers.

Why did you ask for his source if you were just going to instantly dismiss it and reframe the conversation to bballref anyways lol such a funny interaction

[JeffS17]

1 minute ago, theheroatl said:

Question...

 

Does this lead credence to the scheme being completely wrong or the players...

In my opinion, Quin is in a year of evaluation more than anything, and he's not hiding anyone or giving anyone breaks.  I'm guessing he learned from his Jazz stint that holding even your worse defenders accountable is pivotally important, and he has absolutely done that here.  It will be interesting to see how he shifts things going into next year.

[NBASupes]

21 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

In my opinion, Quin is in a year of evaluation more than anything, and he's not hiding anyone or giving anyone breaks.  I'm guessing he learned from his Jazz stint that holding even your worse defenders accountable is pivotally important, and he has absolutely done that here.  It will be interesting to see how he shifts things going into next year.

Facts. He's running a modern defensive scheme. Not the fake 2000s style BS Nate was running last year playing to everyone's strengths and hiding Trae. The NBA doesn't work that way. I like what Quin is doing but personnel could be a major issue. 

[AHF]

42 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

Why did you ask for his source if you were just going to instantly dismiss it and reframe the conversation to bballref anyways lol such a funny interaction

I originally intended to review the data on the site for all players and see how it was coming up with not only the notion that Trae was the worst defender in the entire league this season but also the worst of all time.  There is no such publicly available data on statmuse.

I dismiss a source if it isn't a source but is a search engine spitting out results based on curated numbers from another site.  As I understand it, Statmuse is not a data source but is an AI that searches data to put certain information in a conversational format or as its own website says "transforming sports statistics into storytelling prose."

In this case, when you round the numbers you see they are identical to basketball reference which strongly suggests to me that the claim is absolute BS.  The worst defenders don't play 2000 minutes a season so when statmuse uses that as a curating tool it ignores players like Doug McDermott let alone guys who struggle to get into a rotation.  But the claim is not "worst defender among superstars" or something, it is World of All Time. 

The numbers do not support that Trae has been the worst DRTG player in the league in any season let alone this one being the worst in league history.

Look at the statmuse data and you'll see that rounding and perhaps date are the only potential differences between what statmuse is reporting and what appears on basketball reference:

Name - BBR vs SM

Trae Young - 123 vs 123.1

Jordan Clarkson - 123 vs 122.9

Saddiq Bey - 123 vs 122.9

Etc.

 

But statmuse doesn't make any of its data actually available to confirm and it doesn't include all NBA players in the post which Supes cited which makes it a terrible source to support a WOAT claim, imo.  WOAT literally means worst out of every player to play the game but someone like DeAndre Hunter isn't even included in their data because he hasn't played enough minutes.  Does that make sense to you?  It doesn't to me.

And if DRTG is good data to support Trae being the WOAT then Hunter must be in the running for WOAT given his own numbers (at least by this standard).  Incidently, Hunter is not even remotely in that conversation and I would bash anyone that tried to argue Hunter was the worst defending small forward in the league based on his numbers but it can't be ignored that his DRTG is even worse than Trae's in several seasons per BBR and that I see no reason to expect that SM's source would say differently (if it isn't in fact BBR which may be the case).

[Mikey]

1 hour ago, JeffS17 said:

In my opinion, Quin is in a year of evaluation more than anything, and he's not hiding anyone or giving anyone breaks.  I'm guessing he learned from his Jazz stint that holding even your worse defenders accountable is pivotally important, and he has absolutely done that here.  It will be interesting to see how he shifts things going into next year.

He’s changed his scheme completely from what they were doing with gobert in Utah. He knows just living in deep drop isn’t gonna work and he’s challenging hawks players to improve even if drop is best for a bit like Clint. 

[JeffS17]

2 minutes ago, Mikey said:

He’s changed his scheme completely from what they were doing with gobert in Utah. He knows just living in deep drop isn’t gonna work and he’s challenging hawks players to improve even if drop is best for a bit like Clint. 

Yes, that's what I'm referencing.  But it gets us cooked like on the first play of the game Wednesday when Dusunmo just drove past Trae for a layup.  You need really good chemistry and communication on defense to do what Snyder is trying to do with our defense, and we don't seem to be vocal enough right now.

[JayBirdHawk]

24 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

You need really good chemistry and communication on defense to do what Snyder is trying to do with our defense, and we don't seem to be vocal enough right now.

This.

I always say when I can hear our players coming thru my TV talking on defense it is a good thing.

[Mikey]

1 hour ago, JeffS17 said:

Yes, that's what I'm referencing.  But it gets us cooked like on the first play of the game Wednesday when Dusunmo just drove past Trae for a layup.  You need really good chemistry and communication on defense to do what Snyder is trying to do with our defense, and we don't seem to be vocal enough right now.

Yeah I was doubling down on your comment. I think it just shows the hawks coaching staff know on both sides how the game is being played and they are gonna build the roster accordingly to do that.

 

The first pick of the Quin regime was gonna be Cason or Kobe. Both who are good individual defenders and most importantly good team defenders. As they rotate the talent and people get more accustomed to playing in scheme the defense will get. Think you’re seeing better defense lately but still at times it’s poor and it’s cause the current personnel is mostly bad team defenders. This roster will look drastically different in the summer I think 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

4 hours ago, JeffS17 said:

In my opinion, Quin is in a year of evaluation more than anything, and he's not hiding anyone or giving anyone breaks.  I'm guessing he learned from his Jazz stint that holding even your worse defenders accountable is pivotally important, and he has absolutely done that here.  It will be interesting to see how he shifts things going into next year.

Who is holding Quin accountable?